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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,161
  • Jun 24, 2013 10:25am Jun 24, 2013 10:25am
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  • #41,162
  • Jun 24, 2013 10:33am Jun 24, 2013 10:33am
Quoting kinky
ahh.. offloaded some. average now 9773. i can breathe again!
Only ever listen to yourself kinky. If you take somebody else's advice you won't have the confidence to manage your position and you will develop a victim mentality if it all goes wrong
  • #41,163
  • Jun 24, 2013 10:42am Jun 24, 2013 10:42am
Let me ask again as i chief here...

Chief company is planning to give me Bloomberg terminal...worth it?.....having a bloomberg terminal...???

V
  • #41,164
  • Edited 11:08am Jun 24, 2013 10:55am | Edited 11:08am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Let me ask again as i chief here... Chief company is planning to give me Bloomberg terminal...worth it?.....having a bloomberg terminal...??? V
well, its a tool. vic.
all wire services is ok.
so long as you are reading the news.
the opinions, everyone has one, and it s.....

this world has too many thinkers and not enough farmers.
most gone humans farming.

goodnite my friends.tom will be a manipulation day.
Today , the whole day has only been about the chap who is profitaking euros at 90. Maybe he was nicely short before fomc.
Today just his day take profits.only about that.



regards
  • #41,165
  • Jun 24, 2013 11:08am Jun 24, 2013 11:08am
night chief, uk n v!
  • #41,166
  • Jun 24, 2013 11:27am Jun 24, 2013 11:27am
Night kinky. Well done mate!
  • #41,167
  • Jun 24, 2013 12:57pm Jun 24, 2013 12:57pm
Minor correction, Fibonacci numbers were discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci in 1202, long before Da Vinci's time.

As a technical analyst one should be aware of the principle of multicollinearity - one indicator based on closing prices is the same as another indicator based on closing prices. ie If you have moving averages you don't need MACD because it's the same thing.

Gambling isn't a bad thing in principle, look up Pot Odds and see how you can calculate the probabilities of winning each poker hand. Once we know how many cards there are and we know the value of each card, it's a probabilistic computation. This is what professional players do and if you do research it you will find the reality is a quite bland maths exercise, far from the sleazy/sexy image.

What you really need to win at poker is the discipline to calculate the odds, play the hands according to the system only - never gamble or bluff. A good trader should recognise that approach.
  • #41,168
  • Jun 24, 2013 1:54pm Jun 24, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting Saz
Minor correction, Fibonacci numbers were discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci in 1202, long before Da Vinci's time. As a technical analyst one should be aware of the principle of multicollinearity - one indicator based on closing prices is the same as another indicator based on closing prices. ie If you have moving averages you don't need MACD because it's the same thing. Gambling isn't a bad thing in principle, look up Pot Odds and see how you can calculate the probabilities of winning each poker hand. Once we know how many cards there are and we know...
You're not the first person to come on this thread and make that comment about Fibonacci numbers. Look up the meaning of the word "fostered". It does not mean discovered. A good trader should never make assumptions. Not a great idea to read one post out of 41, 166 and assume you are the first to have brought up the subject. Were you desperate to display your superior knowledge?
  • #41,169
  • Jun 24, 2013 4:33pm Jun 24, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting Saz
Minor correction, Fibonacci numbers were discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci in 1202, long before Da Vinci's time. As a technical analyst one should be aware of the principle of multicollinearity - one indicator based on closing prices is the same as another indicator based on closing prices. ie If you have moving averages you don't need MACD because it's the same thing. Gambling isn't a bad thing in principle, look up Pot Odds and see how you can calculate the probabilities of winning each poker hand. Once we know how many cards there are and we know...
Not sure what this is all about, Saz.

fti, it's good to read your posts again. Hope you are well.
  • #41,170
  • Jun 24, 2013 8:44pm Jun 24, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting Saz
Minor correction, Fibonacci numbers were discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci in 1202, long before Da Vinci's time. As a technical analyst one should be aware of the principle of multicollinearity - one indicator based on closing prices is the same as another indicator based on closing prices. ie If you have moving averages you don't need MACD because it's the same thing. Gambling isn't a bad thing in principle, look up Pot Odds and see how you can calculate the probabilities of winning each poker hand. Once we know how many cards there are and we know...

Same here. Not sure where your headed with this?

You seem to be smart but copy and paste is rampant online. I'll wait and see what else you post before passing judgement.
  • #41,171
  • Jun 24, 2013 9:48pm Jun 24, 2013 9:48pm
is there any imp news tomorrow???


V
  • #41,172
  • Jun 24, 2013 10:09pm Jun 24, 2013 10:09pm
independent coms.
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tradethenews .com
talking-forex .com
  • #41,173
  • Jun 24, 2013 10:51pm Jun 24, 2013 10:51pm
ah..
someone balanced its aud and jpy holdings.

regards
  • #41,174
  • Edited 2:48am Jun 25, 2013 2:20am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting Saz
Minor correction, Fibonacci numbers were discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci in 1202, long before Da Vinci's time. As a technical analyst one should be aware of the principle of multicollinearity - one indicator based on closing prices is the same as another indicator based on closing prices. ie If you have moving averages you don't need MACD because it's the same thing. Gambling isn't a bad thing in principle, look up Pot Odds and see how you can calculate the probabilities of winning each poker hand. Once we know how many cards there are and we know...
yes very interesting.
and L fibo taught you about it?
"Gambling isn't a bad thing"?
"never gamble"?

actually i alittle confused with your mind.
nevermind.

actually what has poker got to do with trading?


regards
  • #41,175
  • Jun 25, 2013 2:49am Jun 25, 2013 2:49am
Quoting fti
{quote} yes very interesting. and L fibo taught you about it? "Gambling isn't a bad thing"? "never gamble"? actually i alittle confused with your mind. nevermind. regards
As I said the Fibs is a minor point. I don't find any mathematical connection between Fibonacci numbers and asset prices so I agree with your post in principle.

The only additional point I tried to make was that taking a trade without calculating risk is gambling, so if you use Technical Analysis - or any other analysis, you are not gambling. So, I agree that there is no Holy Grail analytical technique but "..I have one word for you, GAMBLER" is a harsh judgement, in my opinion. Most traders have to start somewhere, technical analysis is the easiest place to start for those who prefer numerical methods to fundamentals/news.

On reflection I should also add the most valuable trading tool is Price Action (or Support and Resistance), I'm surprised you don't mention it though it is possible that "Market Structure" covers everything.
  • #41,176
  • Jun 25, 2013 2:54am Jun 25, 2013 2:54am
Quoting Saz
{quote} As I said the Fibs is a minor point. I don't find any mathematical connection between Fibonacci numbers and asset prices so I agree with your post in principle. The only additional point I tried to make was that taking a trade without calculating risk is gambling, so if you use Technical Analysis - or any other analysis, you are not gambling. So, I agree that there is no Holy Grail analytical technique but "..I have one word for you, GAMBLER" is a harsh judgement, in my opinion. Most traders have to start somewhere, technical analysis...
you didn't read what ukman posted earlier?
"You're not the first person to come on this thread and make that comment about Fibonacci numbers. Look up the meaning of the word "fostered". It does not mean discovered. A good trader should never make assumptions. Not a great idea to read one post out of 41, 166 and assume you are the first to have brought up the subject. Were you desperate to display your superior knowledge?"

regards
  • #41,177
  • Jun 25, 2013 2:59am Jun 25, 2013 2:59am
Quoting Saz
{quote} As I said the Fibs is a minor point. I don't find any mathematical connection between Fibonacci numbers and asset prices so I agree with your post in principle. The only additional point I tried to make was that taking a trade without calculating risk is gambling, so if you use Technical Analysis - or any other analysis, you are not gambling. So, I agree that there is no Holy Grail analytical technique but "..I have one word for you, GAMBLER" is a harsh judgement, in my opinion. Most traders have to start somewhere, technical analysis...
taking any form risk is a gamble. But calculated risk is in eyes of the beholder. Depends on how calculated the calculations.
starting anything is a gamble, everyone knows the risk they taking until it overcomes them. Then foolishness sets in.
ss/rr is not real. Is the minds way mitigate risk.
Please read thread before make judgements.

regards
  • #41,178
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:01am Jun 25, 2013 3:01am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} You're not the first person to come on this thread and make that comment about Fibonacci numbers. Look up the meaning of the word "fostered". It does not mean discovered. A good trader should never make assumptions. Not a great idea to read one post out of 41, 166 and assume you are the first to have brought up the subject. Were you desperate to display your superior knowledge?

why would I read 41,166 posts? and more to the point, when? and furthermore, unless you are a moderator, why are you concerned?

My actual assumption was that many people would have made the same point already, nevertheless, I am entitled to do so too. The more obvious mistake was the Abraham Lincoln quote "...you can't fool all the people all the time" but I don't want to give the impression I just come here to point out errors in other peoples work. Which is why the bulk of my comment was about gambling, I posted a further explanation of that today.
  • #41,179
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:05am Jun 25, 2013 3:05am
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} you didn't read what ukman posted earlier? "You're not the first person to come on this thread and make that comment about Fibonacci numbers. Look up the meaning of the word "fostered". It does not mean discovered. A good trader should never make assumptions. Not a great idea to read one post out of 41, 166 and assume you are the first to have brought up the subject. Were you desperate to display your superior knowledge?" regards

read it, and replied now. Happy?
  • #41,180
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:07am Jun 25, 2013 3:07am
Quoting fti
{quote} taking any form risk is a gamble. But calculated risk is in eyes of the beholder. Depends on how calculated the calculations. starting anything is a gamble, everyone knows the risk they taking until it overcomes them. Then foolishness sets in. ss/rr is not real. Is the minds way mitigate risk. Please read thread before make judgements. regards

The thread is too long to read now. I will stop commenting, people are very sensitive here.
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