EUR’s 'Kiss Of Death' From Ben | Forex Factory

EUR’s 'Kiss Of Death' From Ben | Forex Factory

EUR’s 'Kiss Of Death' From Ben

From oanda.com

The 17-member single currency got the “kiss of death” from the Fed – just like other currencies against the dollar. It has been a tough two weeks for the one of the G3 member currency. First, the market pared their record dollar longs going into this week’s watershed FOMC meet and even managed to go long the EUR, nothing aggressive mind you. Second, the market did not anticipate that ‘helicopter’ Ben and his fellow cohorts would be as hawkish as they finally where mid-week. Now that tapering is on the Fed’s table, US yields have aggressively backed up, while the fear of expensive money has global ... (full story)

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Jun 21, 2013 10:41pm

I also think it's BS.
The Eur ain't dead, not by a long shot.

The fundamentals have been terrible for ages, yet the pricing cycle continues.

My own analysis sees 1.37 after what I see as a fake "speech" drop to finish the week smack on the 50fib and strong support.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6770936#post6770936

I don't trade the Euro, but if I was, I certainly would not be selling any rallies like the banks and aricles "kindly" advise us....

Just sayin'

lol....

Jun 22, 2013 3:47am

Quoting aman4forex

Disliked

bla bla bla bla
Show you analysis not your tongue running all over the place
If you are so sure Then Go any buy I wont buy I will look to sell ofcourse below 1.2990 which means that reversal is finally on the cards
Shut the hell up ?

Ignored

lol...

You are shouting down to one of the nicest guys in this place.

I think you could be waiting quite a while to lock in that sell for a bearish reversal at 2990 in my opinion.
But let's see what the market has to say.
I'm no Fundy trader and I believe in market balance through correction. But seems to me at the moment we could be heading higher before making new lows.

Jun 22, 2013 3:36pm

Quoting Pip Anon

Disliked

I am thinking there should be some sort of IQ/psychological testing done before being allow to post here.

Ignored

Oh now that's a great idea buddy!

Of course, that would rule out anymore posts from me.

Not necessarily a bad thing...lol

Jun 24, 2013 6:20pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

As a full time trader for the past 5 years, the problem is that one cannot trust Bernanke. He is a trickster out to catch short-term leveraged traders. Bernanke has all the power in the world, and we retail traders, however well trained and disciplined must out-think and out-smart this guy. Something like David and Goliath. I do not think that I am alone in my thinking.

"Though he might have some bearish sentiments, itâ€™s not all gloom and doom with Marc Faber. The colorful Swiss investor checked in on Bloomberg Televisionâ€™s â€œStreet Smartâ€...

Ignored

Nice, someone who gets it

Jun 24, 2013 6:33pm

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Nice, someone who gets it

Ignored

Not that hard to get.

Show me "anyone" at that level that tells the truth and puts all the cards on the table and I'll show you some really good quality "former" swamplands in Florida that will produce 100 barrels of oil a day for a mere $10 per lot. LOL

Jun 24, 2013 6:39pm

Quoting albchr

Disliked

Not that hard to get.

Show me "anyone" at that level that tells the truth and puts all the cards on the table and I'll show you some really good quality "former" swamplands in Florida that will produce 100 barrels of oil a day for a mere $10 per lot. LOL

Ignored

No no, you are mistaken.
Bernanke and his central mates always tell the truth and are nearly always correct in their forecasting.
In recent years this has become self evident.

lol...

Jun 21, 2013 12:28pm

Quoting Maso

Disliked

Very Nice

Ignored

Thank you lol. Nothing profound, but I love how everyone and their mother said this wasn't a Fed rally. The Fed looks to taper and the S&P down like 80 points in two sessions lol.

Now we actually have to look at the crap fundamentals whether in the US, Europe or Asian. I think it's safe to say assets were inflated.

Jun 21, 2013 2:34pm

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

I know this will sound strange to most traders but that is because most do notyou understand that fundamentals is akin to reading the entrails of dead animals to tell the future - simply put - voodoo. If you do the math for a mean reverting market (using the appropriate chaotic scale) it is clear that the reversion range is between 1.37 and 1.42 and no force on earth can change.

Ignored

Call it fractal geometry or black magic hoodo, it negates the fact that people need to label things in order to categorize and justify them.

I am sure there was a fractal geo equation we could plug Bernanke's comments into, but in the end it is what it is

Jun 22, 2013 10:17am

Quoting aman4forex

Disliked

bla bla bla bla
Show you analysis not your tongue running all over the place
If you are so sure Then Go any buy I wont buy I will look to sell ofcourse below 1.2990 which means that reversal is finally on the cards
Shut the hell up ?

Ignored

Don't be addlepated. What analysis have you shown here? I know you think your a forex god, but if you were you wouldn't be mingling with us common folk.

So, take the corn cob out your ass.

Jun 22, 2013 2:57pm

Quoting inpatient

Disliked

Where did i say anything about buying? I have been holding shorts on the Euro since the 4th of June?

Im not sure you read these posts correctly bro?

Ignored

No worries, man. This internet-analyst warriors think they know so much when half of them cannot even articulately expression their opinion.

I made a comment to someone trading off a Deustche bank release and probably wasn't a great idea, and all of a sudden I was accused of thinking the banks were on my side.

I am thinking there should be some sort of IQ/psychological testing done before being allow to post here.

Jun 22, 2013 4:07pm

Quoting albchr

Disliked

Oh now that's a great idea buddy!

Of course, that would rule out anymore posts from me.

Not necessarily a bad thing...lol

Ignored

Lol, just tired of those that are so inarticulate that they cannot express their own point of views without being d-bags.

Keep your posts coming!

Jun 21, 2013 2:21pm

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

no one can turn a trend

Ignored

And when Draghi stated 'we will do everything necessary' back last summer?

Or was that just coincidence as the Euro was 'due' for a correction?

Jun 21, 2013 4:33pm

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

The Euro was exactly at reversion amplitude and rose and is still rising (not because of Draghi but the money invested in direction). That money must get to the opposite reversion range. It is simple but this is not an argument since unless I can show you the calculations and or show you how the principle of reversion works you are not required to believe me. But just saying to those ignorant enough to go with this voodoo thing called fund -a- mental analysis - do not take rubbish for granted. That is what it is - rubbish. I am a trained economist...

Ignored

Well your right that it is something that i dont have any background with bro. I am open minded though to all things and you always seem to state your case well and it gives me a sense at least that there may be something in what you are talking.

Do your thoughts agree though that the markets generally move over time depending upon interest rate differences.? As an example the carry trade seeking higher yield in the Aussie for example from the zero interest dollar?

In terms of Draghi starting the bull run of last year with the Euro. Would you say that his comments were a factor at all? I am interested to learn all things that i do not know.

Jun 21, 2013 4:42pm

Loadedgun, forgive my ignorance but i always thought the use of fractals was very similiar to using simple W and M patterns with signals being given from the breakout above the middle point? Not too far from a higher high being bullish and lowere low bearish?

I know its not something to be easily explained on here bro.. But instead of the market moving because of chaos theory i think there is a possibility that fractals/chaos systems simply give an indication of how price moves following the 'emotions' of fundamental triggers.

Jun 22, 2013 2:39pm

Quoting aman4forex

Disliked

bla bla bla bla
Show you analysis not your tongue running all over the place
If you are so sure Then Go any buy I wont buy I will look to sell ofcourse below 1.2990 which means that reversal is finally on the cards
Shut the hell up ?

Ignored

So my brother i have read this post 4 times and still have no real idea what you are saying?

Running my tongue? I was asking Loaded gun if he seen the Draghi comments moving the market 200 pips lat year as a coincidence or an example of how a 'person' can move the markets.

??? Im not sure what you are talking about really?

Jun 22, 2013 2:43pm

Quoting aman4forex

Disliked

bla bla bla bla

If you are so sure Then Go any buy I wont buy I will look to sell ofcourse

Ignored

Where did i say anything about buying? I have been holding shorts on the Euro since the 4th of June?

Im not sure you read these posts correctly bro?

Jun 23, 2013 12:14pm

Quoting Pip Anon

Disliked

I am thinking there should be some sort of IQ/psychological testing done before being allow to post here.

Ignored

We can live in hope guys.....

Until then it is just good comedy value. I actually think Aman4forex might have mistakenly quoted me but intended to quote Loadedgun. Nothing he said made sense. Much as the norm, ha

Jun 21, 2013 11:44pm

It is about time you mortals with no brains, bow before the God who has just spoken and told you that you are all jerks wasting your time in trading and time has come now to switch from pious pivot theory to fractal geometry that jus has been discovered. Next will be neural networks. All you should do is close your eyes and kneel before him and pray for his mercy.

Jun 21, 2013 12:12pm

Quoting Pip Anon

Disliked

I think the fundamentals are the kiss of death. Divergences will correct. Did the market really think buying would be indefinite? Let's get a grip on reality.

Ignored

Very Nice

Jun 21, 2013 5:27pm

Loadedgun
Post Hidden Per Ignore List

How many times does this guy need to get suspended or have his posts removed to the 'extracted posts' area before he is shut down? He is on my ignore list but still spams every news thread he can infect. Its weird as he feels that news is noise...so why add to it...

Jun 21, 2013 1:46pm

OMG these guys are such a joke with their articles....The kiss of death??? What is this Mortal Combat 5??

"The market didn't realize helicopter Ben and his cohorts would be so hawkish????"

LMAO.

Of course they realized......Hence why the SMART MONEY dumped USD in the week leading up the FOMC and we saw beautifull low levels of USD across the board perfectly positioned for USD longs.

Great article Oanda, these guys are experts on convincing retail do the opposite.

Six.

Jun 21, 2013 2:42pm

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

I know this will sound strange to most traders but that is because most do not have any knowledge whatsoever of chaos and fractal geometry. But put simply - Ben, Draghi or fundamentals has nothing to do directly with the way price moves - it is complex to explain and even to close friends working with chaos it will take several stages. But it is a market not an economic laboratory and the Euro has not reached the drop amplitude so it will continue to rise despite this seeming interruption (it is the lack of such basic knowledge that ensures nearly...

Ignored

Great forecasts or "advice" which ever you prefer.... and I am sure that you have a great system LG as you always refer to Chaos and Fractals as the pinnacle of trading... I compliment you on your faith in your methods, and assume that you are successful or else you probably wouldn't be here preaching about it.

However, I care not for anything beyond the next trading session. My trades are closed by the end of London/Half way through new York session daily and my profits are logged as such.

Wether that is chaos, fractals, good intuition, TA, fundementals, or just bloody good trading I care not.

My days end in profit. This is what matters.

happy trades.

Six.

Jun 21, 2013 2:53pm

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

Well Sixfour, it is what I call simply "patience and prudence - the way to succeed in everything" ;-). LG prefers complicated pseudo-scientific explanations :-).

Ignored

I couldn't agree more. Patience is truly the one thing the probably unites all successful traders

Regardless of what system or strategy they choose to apply.

Jun 21, 2013 8:51pm

Loadedgun, I don't think we need an equation to tell that a reversal might come in the range of 1.37. Anyone can see that there will be significant resistance from the swing high in January. I think this knowledge alone is enough for a large number of people to make money. There are a large number of successful traders in the world, who I'm sure are totally ignorant of chaos and geo fractals. And clearly fundamentals DO have an affect on the market. Sometimes the effect is ambiguous or unexpected, but big events like the BOJ announcement in April, and this FOMC statement this week are awesome for guiding the sentiment of the market.

Bon

Jun 22, 2013 12:56pm

If you see Eur/Usd daily chart, you can see three black crows...
As the three white soldiers, three black crows usually give effect long enough to continue its influence.
So I better looking sell position.

Jun 22, 2013 6:22am

LOL

Jun 21, 2013 2:49pm

Well Sixfour, it is what I call simply "patience and prudence - the way to succeed in everything" ;-). LG prefers complicated pseudo-scientific explanations :-).

Jun 21, 2013 12:09pm

I think the fundamentals are the kiss of death. Divergences will correct. Did the market really think buying would be indefinite? Let's get a grip on reality.

Jun 21, 2013 2:04pm — Edited

I know this will sound strange to most traders but that is because most do not have any knowledge whatsoever of chaos and fractal geometry. But put simply - Ben, Draghi or fundamentals has nothing to do directly with the way price moves - it is complex to explain and even to close friends working with chaos it will take several stages. But it is a market not an economic laboratory and the Euro has not reached the drop amplitude so it will continue to rise despite this seeming interruption (it is the lack of such basic knowledge that ensures nearly all traders reading this will never make it trading - sorry to say that).

Lets not forget that the Euro was due for a correction and a correction it is seeing now. But it must see at least 1.37 or higher to reach the sort of amplitude that will imply reversal. The funny thing is that it is simple to read when you understand that fundamentals is akin to reading the entrails of dead animals to tell the future - simply put - voodoo. If you do the math for a mean reverting market (using the appropriate chaotic scale) it is clear that the reversion range is between 1.37 and 1.42 and no force on earth can change that - it is math and a science.

Those shorting the Euro and going with the flow are doing right no doubt but we are talking range here and the idea that Euro has turned because Ben made a statement is a real laugh - no one can turn a trend if you understand the way mean reverting markets work. Anyway be careful in employing the deeply ignorant and trite discipline of fundamentals if trading swing. Day traders really have no need for very long term forecasts.

Jun 21, 2013 2:26pm

Quoting inpatient

Disliked

And when Draghi stated 'we will do everything necessary' back last summer?

Ignored

The Euro was exactly at reversion amplitude and rose and is still rising (not because of Draghi but the money invested in direction). That money must get to the opposite reversion range. It is simple but this is not an argument since unless I can show you the calculations and or show you how the principle of reversion works you are not required to believe me. But just saying to those ignorant enough to go with this voodoo thing called fund -a- mental analysis - do not take rubbish for granted. That is what it is - rubbish. I am a trained economist so I know this both ways (once as an economist and once as trader) Good luck.

BTW: We who know the market and mean reversion stated what was going to happen but as usual most people ignorant of the science of chaos were too deep into the voodoo of it to understand and started screaming after Draghi - yet it was clear that money infused into the market at the mapping of the Euro at that point implied a rise to the opposite reversion envelope. What a laugh.

Jun 21, 2013 4:17pm

Lets not forget that the Euro was due for a correction and a correction it is seeing now. But it must see at least 1.37 or higher to reach the sort of amplitude that will imply reversal.

If you do the math for a mean reverting market (using the appropriate chaotic scale) it is clear that the reversion range is between 1.37 and 1.42 and no force on earth can change that - it is math and a science.

I have been following you for a couple weeks and first you said "1.33 was the top" and then you changed to "1.34 as a top" along with a reversal to "1.27 next". Now you are talking about "1.37" and "1.42".

You do know chaos I will give you that.

Jun 22, 2013 1:28am

Quoting inpatient

Disliked

And when Draghi stated 'we will do everything necessary' back last summer?

Or was that just coincidence as the Euro was 'due' for a correction?

Ignored

bla bla bla bla
Show you analysis not your tongue running all over the place
If you are so sure Then Go any buy I wont buy I will look to sell ofcourse below 1.2990 which means that reversal is finally on the cards
Shut the hell up ?

Jun 21, 2013 4:18pm

Loadedgun? Yeah ok

Trader#651F

Jun 23, 2013 1:18pm

As a full time trader for the past 5 years, the problem is that one cannot trust Bernanke. He is a trickster out to catch short-term leveraged traders. Bernanke has all the power in the world, and we retail traders, however well trained and disciplined must out-think and out-smart this guy. Something like David and Goliath. I do not think that I am alone in my thinking.

"Though he might have some bearish sentiments, itâ€™s not all gloom and doom with Marc Faber. The colorful Swiss investor checked in on Bloomberg Televisionâ€™s â€œStreet Smartâ€ Friday to offer insight on the markets and where the Fed is headed with quantitative easing. Notably, Faber said he doesnâ€™t believe everything Ben Bernanke says and likened such a belief to a schoolchildâ€™s belief â€œin Father Christmas.â€ He also weighed in on gold and the potential problems with emerging markets.

Faber, who publishes GloomBoomDoom.com, told the hosts of â€œStreet Smartâ€ he doesnâ€™t believe the Fed Chairman is putting all his cards on the table and likely wonâ€™t be backing off quantitative easing any time soon.

â€œIf you say that if he means what he says, then you believe in Father Christmas,â€ Faber said with a grin. But he also noted that investors should listen carefully to Bernankeâ€™s words."

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/faber-believing-in-bernanke-like-believing-in-father-xmas.html/?ref=YF

I don't believe in Father Xmas any more. The reaction to the news is more important than the news itself, and I reckon the market does not trust Bernanke one little bit.

Trader#36E9

Jun 21, 2013 2:43pm

Thank you Loadedgun. Unbeknownst to you, you've become my teacher.
I appreciate your sound and scientific advice. Cheers.

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Jun 21, 2013 12:05pm
Posted by
OANDA

Fundamental Analysis

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