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  • #781
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:32am Jun 24, 2013 6:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Hey CG - never fear, there will be more. Glad you turned me on to these & I am starting to tune in to the process. Yep, TLT sep $100 puts are @ $1.12 - I paid $0.60.
T.F. TLT down again in pre market to 107.89, after july you will see an acceleration in time decay in that option so look to take profit sooner or later
  • #782
  • Edited 8:19am Jun 24, 2013 8:08am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. TLT down again in pre market to 107.89, after july you will see an acceleration in time decay in that option so look to take profit sooner or later
I'm with you there. That TLT trade is on the large end of my trading range so 100% roi is starting to look pretty irresistable. So you don't think gold can catch a bid?

If the only safe haven is cash, then time to buy the USD - witness E/U on its way sub 1.30. FXE puts will be rising today...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #783
  • Jun 24, 2013 11:21am Jun 24, 2013 11:21am
Quoting The Fool
If the only safe haven is cash, then time to buy the USD - witness E/U on its way sub 1.30. FXE puts will be rising today...
flows out of equities, out of bonds, out of commodities, not seeing huge movements in currencies, either. Where's the money going?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #784
  • Edited 1:22pm Jun 24, 2013 12:12pm | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} damn you pre market traders will miss out on these too, pre market already down significantly
yup, the downside of options trading - you're locked out of the candy store most of the day. The VXX put is an easy trade on a day that opens sharply down. DOW will open down and stay down, and VXX will fall, or DOW will rebound and VXX will fall, but the best entries are made pre-market hours...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #785
  • Edited 6:29pm Jun 24, 2013 12:40pm | Edited 6:29pm
taken a couple of trades this morning: Jun 28 $41 SDS puts for $0.18; Jul NUGT $6.00 calls for $0.70.


...both up after <1hr, NUGT looks like it will get thru the $6 strike, from about $5.60 when I bought the calls.


Kicking myself on TLT, thought to close my $100 puts when 10yr was at 2.62, TLT was at $107.80, now has come back $109.33. I will be very interested to see what the rate & TLT do on a sustained riskon market day.

....rally ass kicked at the close, VXX back near $23, tomorrow's a new day....let's see if selling continues in Asia Tuesday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #786
  • Jun 24, 2013 3:23pm Jun 24, 2013 3:23pm
Sell RUT Vertical spread (puts) 940/930 with the idea maybe to turn in Iron condor.
Today 6%
  • #787
  • Jun 24, 2013 3:53pm Jun 24, 2013 3:53pm
Quoting The Fool
Kicking myself on TLT, ...
TLT up to $109.10 in afterhours, makes me sick. I will not be surprised if the 2.64% yield seen today is a high for the summer, but we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #788
  • Jun 24, 2013 5:25pm Jun 24, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, Mike that's a bold call. Not sure I can concur, but I appreciate the warning.
Sure is bold, but thats my middle name, the top on the 22nd May 2013 was related to the top in the 1929 crash. the market then fell for 31 day, so the parallel is 22 May 2013 plus 31 calender days that would tie up with Sunday/Monday 24th June. Looks like we are getting a reaction up for sure. The market in 1929 then rose for 10 calender days, takes us to the 4th July, which is a US holiday, So my estimate would be we start a fast decline on the 5th July. Lets see what happens.
  • #789
  • Jun 24, 2013 5:33pm Jun 24, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting Mike Haran
{quote} Sure is bold, but thats my middle name, the top on the 22nd May 2013 was related to the top in the 1929 crash.
Why is something that happened in 1929 related to something that is happening now?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #790
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:30pm Jun 24, 2013 6:30pm
Quoting Mike Haran
{quote} Sure is bold, but thats my middle name, the top on the 22nd May 2013 was related to the top in the 1929 crash. the market then fell for 31 day, so the parallel is 22 May 2013 plus 31 calender days that would tie up with Sunday/Monday 24th June. Looks like we are getting a reaction up for sure. The market in 1929 then rose for 10 calender days, takes us to the 4th July, which is a US holiday, So my estimate would be we start a fast decline on the 5th July. Lets see what happens.
so what trades do you have running to take advantage
  • #791
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:39pm Jun 24, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
got my eyes on priceline/google/aig/vz/ and a few others for put action this week
some good moves on these today
  • #792
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:43pm Jun 24, 2013 6:43pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} some good moves on these today
yup, good whipsaw action, waiting to see if Asia takes a big dump on my long positions...you in anything yet this week, CG?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #793
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:47pm Jun 24, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting The Fool
taken a couple of trades this morning: Jun 28 $41 SDS puts for $0.18; Jul NUGT $6.00 calls for $0.70. ...both up after <1hr, NUGT looks like it will get thru the $6 strike, from about $5.60 when I bought the calls. Kicking myself on TLT, thought to close my $100 puts when 10yr was at 2.62, TLT was at $107.80, now has come back $109.33. I will be very interested to see what the rate & TLT do on a sustained riskon market day. ....rally ass kicked at the close, VXX back near $23, tomorrow's a new day....let's see if selling...
i'll be watching TLT this week especially wednesday with GDP coming out, i've got an explosive move reading in the YEN due, trouble is i don't know if its being bought or sold, if its dosn't happen tonight in asia then it s gonna happen when US markets come on line tomorrow
  • #794
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:49pm Jun 24, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yup, good whipsaw action, waiting to see if Asia takes a big dump on my long positions...you in anything yet this week, CG?
no not yet, i'm as usual will try and trade GDX/ TLT/ and financials also GOOGLE could have a super set up later in the week
  • #795
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:53pm Jun 24, 2013 6:53pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} i'll be watching TLT this week especially wednesday with GDP coming out, i've got an explosive move reading in the YEN due, trouble is i don't know if its being bought or sold, if its dosn't happen tonight in asia then it s gonna happen when US markets come on line tomorrow
I was surprised there was not better usd follow through strength today, one of the reasons I felt I could play a riskon turn. I may still come out ok by the end of the week. Heaviest POMO days are Wed-Thur, $8 billion +, the Fed will get its revenge.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #796
  • Jun 24, 2013 6:59pm Jun 24, 2013 6:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I was surprised there was not better usd follow through strength today, one of the reasons I felt I could play a riskon turn. I may still come out ok by the end of the week. Heaviest POMO days are Wed-Thur, $8 billion +, the Fed will get its revenge.
I think you be ok with TLT, as we're approaching month end the real traders will set TLT up for a further fall in july. I quoted 107.90 ish area to watch with other numbers if we surpass it and close
  • #797
  • Jun 24, 2013 7:02pm Jun 24, 2013 7:02pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think you be ok with TLT, as we're approaching month end the real traders will set TLT up for a further fall in july. I quoted 107.90 ish area to watch with other numbers if we surpass it and close
yeah hope so but if it fall back too far toward my entry I'll have to get out with something. Then of course it would turn again and go all the way to $100 by Jackson Hole, which is what I had in mind....


Asia be gettin underway soon, eyes on Shanghai and Tokyo and gold. I think my NUGT longs will pay, S&P longs maybe a little dicier....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #798
  • Jun 24, 2013 7:05pm Jun 24, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah hope so but if it fall back too far toward my entry I'll have to get out with something. Then of course it would turn again and go all the way to $100 by Jackson Hole, which is what I had in mind....
we need a retrace for it to go down, this is traded by long term traders and not short term speculators
  • #799
  • Jun 24, 2013 7:18pm Jun 24, 2013 7:18pm
Quoting successlife
Sell RUT Vertical spread (puts) 940/930 with the idea maybe to turn in Iron condor. Today 6%
are you sure you want to sell as i think we are heading lower
  • #800
  • Jun 24, 2013 7:38pm Jun 24, 2013 7:38pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} are you sure you want to sell as i think we are heading lower
I think that's a bear spread, he's selling the 930 and buying the 940 puts.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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