Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 13 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #241
  • Edited 4:59pm Jun 19, 2013 3:50pm | Edited 4:59pm
I had that AUDCAD short planned but I cancelled it before the FMOC news, just in case. It was a H4 at the D1 proximal line with a nice departure, that's why I had it planned. Cancelled quite a few before the news. I got hit on 3, price was quite far away but was hit, had 3 losses with the news. I closed my EURAUD at the speedbump demand, luckily because the news would have got me a breakeven!


Hope that helps!
Alfonso


Quoting Sdprice
Have an order to short the AUD/CAD right at the proximal line (.9719) which also happens to be a fresh Level on the 4h and the 1h charts. 1st chart is 4h 2nd chart is 1h Let me know if anyone see's anything potentially wrong on this trade; helps to have another fresh pair of eyes {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #242
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:21pm Jun 19, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting Sdprice
{quote} thanks for the input, however, If you look at the 4h chart there is not that much trading in the level. But i am kinda leaning towards your view because the 1h does make since. The reason is because a majority of those supply orders are already filled. however, the news that just came out pushed price way down creating a new supply level right under the proximal D1 supply level. My only question is, should fresh levels that were created by news be traded. Chart below shows the new supply level proximal (.97118).???? {image}
I think could be traded, because if we research the rules that movement is a big and strong imbalance, and other thing to take about thuis is, the institutions and banks take the news to his favor, creating acumulation, distribution.
  • #243
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:16am Jun 20, 2013 1:16am
Hello, this is my trade.
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  • #244
  • Jun 20, 2013 2:33am Jun 20, 2013 2:33am
Quoting panoramia
I had that AUDCAD short planned but I cancelled it before the FMOC news, just in case. It was a H4 at the D1 proximal line with a nice departure, that's why I had it planned. Cancelled quite a few before the news. I got hit on 3, price was quite far away but was hit, had 3 losses with the news. I closed my EURAUD at the speedbump demand, luckily because the news would have got me a breakeven! Hope that helps! Alfonso {quote}

Hi alfonso, I had that same exact trade set up for the AUDCAD. It was a great short entry for the 4h; strong imbalance at that level and right at the D1 proximal line. News was in favor of this trade, but smart idea not to trade that FOMC news.
Question? would you take that new fresh supply level that was formed by the news right at the D1 proximal line?
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  • #245
  • Jun 20, 2013 2:57am Jun 20, 2013 2:57am
Eurjpy time frame 1hr . is this good label for sell ?
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  • #246
  • Jun 20, 2013 4:07am Jun 20, 2013 4:07am
I can't really tell you by just looking at the H1 chart. You have to know how high or how low it's in the SD curve. It looks like high in the curve and strong departure/imbalance from the level, right underneath the D1 supply area, so it looks like a nice spot.

Look at my chart, you will see that by using the rectangle indicator I created, you will see at all moments where the previous D1 supply area is located, the 2 yellow lines represent the proximal and distal line for the D1 supply area.


The D1 supply area is not fresh, so I will not lean on that supply area to set & forget my trade, I will wait for a brand new H1 supply area at that area or within the D1 area to short, a brand new H1 supply area will show me there is willing supply at the D1 supply area. If the D1 supply was fresh then I would go for that supply area. This is what I normally do, not saying that the H1 supply will not work, but I will wait for all this to happen before I go short.

Hope that helps!
Alfonso




Quoting ochinkumar
Eurjpy time frame 1hr . is this good label for sell ? {image}
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  • #247
  • Jun 20, 2013 4:17am Jun 20, 2013 4:17am
I wanted to show you what I do in some circumstances when I want to trade Daily supply or demand.

THE SCENARIO (example based on D1 supply zone for EURJPY):

  1. D1 suppy zone is too wide. It normally is, even more on pairs like EURJPY
  2. There are no original and fresh lower timeframe levels H1/H4 supply to set & forget a short trade. Remember for counter-trend use only original levels (those that are no reaction to previous levels)

WHAT TO DO:

  1. Wait for a confirmation, we want to see willing supply in the area on smaller timeframes, H1 supply minimum. The D1 area is too wide and sellers might pop in anywhere within the level
  2. Wait for a brand new H1/H4 supply level to be formed. Short the pullback. On H1/H4 it normally is a double top formation

See the attachement for a visual representation of what I mean.

Look at your charts and watch this happen over and over and over and OVER again from the beginning of time.

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  • #248
  • Jun 20, 2013 8:19am Jun 20, 2013 8:19am
WHY SHOULD WE BUY FRESH LEVELS OF DEMAND ON A TRENDING MARKET?
Look at the DOMINO effect on the way down for the EURUSD. Price travelled from D1 supply to D1 demand area.

See how all H1 demand zones in purple are reaction to previous ones, they are not fresh. When we're dropping from a D1 supply, we must lean on original levels of demand to go long, as distant as possible from the D1 supply zone and as close to D1 demand as possible (if possible within the D1 demand)

None of the levels of demand were original, not to mention fresh. So if we try to go long, the higher probability is a loss.

WHEN TRADING WITH THE TREND: use fresh levels of supply with lots of room to opposite D1 S/D area
WHEN TRADING AGAINST THE TREND: use orignal levels of supply as far away from D1 SD area as possible, as close to the opposite D1 SD area
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  • #249
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:38am Jun 21, 2013 1:38am
Hello everyone, I am a newbie in Forex, I have started to have interest in Forex last year 2012. S&D caught my attention when I first watch Sam's webinars in FxStreet.com. But, I do not understand about how is he taking the levels.

Therefore, from that point, I have searched threads, sites, pdf's, clips, etc. etc. about S&D until I found Alfonso's "Supply and demand, how to use the rectangle extender indicator" in youtube. From there I have followed his link coming to this thread read it and viewed his other clips regarding S&D.

With his step-by-step explanation, I have finally understand the concept of the S&D. But of course, this is not a one time sitting to understand all about S&D and make consistent winnings in trading. Practice, practice, practice.

To you Mr. Alfonso, I thank you now for sharing your knowledge with us. I know it's early to say thank you but without your thread and clippings, it would be very difficult to us newbies to understand S&D concept.

I thank you also for the other people participating in helping Alfonso in sharing their ideas about S&D. Looking forward to the growth of this thread.

BTW, my trading style is INTRADAY with 1H, 4H, Daily TF's.
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #250
  • Jun 21, 2013 2:10am Jun 21, 2013 2:10am
Here is my 1st chart for EURUSD to post using Alfonso's template @ 1H TF.

I have set a limit sell (which has been hit) on a supply level that I have located @ 30 min TF (speed bump) and set my TP on top of my 4H TF demand level which also is on confluence with a support level.

What are your thoughts about my S&D levels, are they acceptable? Please tell me if needs improvement.
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SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #251
  • Jun 21, 2013 3:07am Jun 21, 2013 3:07am
Thanks a lot for your nice comments Isko. I'm glad that my thread and videos on supply and demand, have helped you understand a little bit better what supply and demand is all about. As you said, you need to practice a lot, we ALL need to practice each and every day. But helping and having support from other fellow traders help a lot, since trading is a lonely profession.

I will be posting some other videos hopefully soon when I have the time. I have some planned in my head.

Alfonso

Quoting isko
Hello everyone, I am a newbie in Forex, I have started to have interest in Forex last year 2012. S&D caught my attention when I first watch Sam's webinars in FxStreet.com. But, I do not understand about how is he taking the levels. Therefore, from that point, I have searched threads, sites, pdf's, clips, etc. etc. about S&D until I found Alfonso's "Supply and demand, how to use the rectangle extender indicator" in youtube. From there I have followed his link coming to this thread read it and viewed his other clips regarding S&D. With his step-by-step...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #252
  • Jun 21, 2013 6:57am Jun 21, 2013 6:57am
hi guys,

i need some help: alfonso is talking about original s/d levels. can somebody tell me what is his meaning or definition of an original level. where and in which timeframe i have to look for. the meaning of fresh levels = levels created after original level - is this the right understanding. thanks in advance. kind regards
  • #253
  • Jun 21, 2013 7:18am Jun 21, 2013 7:18am
Hello Astock,

There are a couple of videos I posted on this thread that explain in detail the difference between a fresh and an original level, when to look for them and under which circumstances. There are also posts where I describe more information about it. Go through it. I am on my mobile now and I can't tell you exact post, but there are like 3-4 videos I've created which should be more than enough to get you started on SD and distinguishing these levels and when to trade them.

Let me know if you find the videos and if they help you.
Alfonso

Quoting astock
hi guys, i need some help: alfonso is talking about original s/d levels. can somebody tell me what is his meaning or definition of an original level. where and in which timeframe i have to look for. the meaning of fresh levels = levels created after original level - is this the right understanding. thanks in advance. kind regards
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #254
  • Jun 21, 2013 8:59am Jun 21, 2013 8:59am
Great entries, I don't have anything to say about it. EURUSD had absorbed previous demand on D1, $index going up... Nice M30 supply, congratulations!

Alfonso

Quoting isko
Here is my 1st chart for EURUSD to post using Alfonso's template @ 1H TF. I have set a limit sell (which has been hit) on a supply level that I have located @ 30 min TF (speed bump) and set my TP on top of my 4H TF demand level which also is on confluence with a support level. What are your thoughts about my S&D levels, are they acceptable? Please tell me if needs improvement. {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #255
  • Jun 21, 2013 9:29am Jun 21, 2013 9:29am
Yeah, my TP target just hit hours ago. I am so happy with it.

But still, my fear is my emotion still takes place everytime I see big moves in the market and consistency to hold good trades.

Well, consistency is the key, always practice, practice, practice to improve. As you have said Alfonso, set-up your rules and follow your rules like a robot.

Happy weekend everyone!


Quoting panoramia
Great entries, I don't have anything to say about it. EURUSD had absorbed previous demand on D1, $index going up... Nice M30 supply, congratulations! Alfonso {quote}
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #256
  • Jun 21, 2013 11:39am Jun 21, 2013 11:39am
Quoting isko
Yeah, my TP target just hit hours ago. I am so happy with it. But still, my fear is my emotion still takes place everytime I see big moves in the market and consistency to hold good trades. Well, consistency is the key, always practice, practice, practice to improve. As you have said Alfonso, set-up your rules and follow your rules like a robot. Happy weekend everyone! {quote}

Good job isko, i liked your 30m short entry levels on the EUR/USD. Hope you continue to show your charts on this thread. It helps all of us.
  • #257
  • Jun 21, 2013 11:55am Jun 21, 2013 11:55am
Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Good job isko, i liked your 30m short entry levels on the EUR/USD. Hope you continue to show your charts on this thread. It helps all of us.
Thank you Sdprice. Just following the rules that were being thought in this thread and the clips of Alfonso.

I hope that we will all improve together in trading.

Anyway, I have set a SELL Limit with a 3:1 Ratio to short EJ (1H TF) since price creates new LL and currently trying to test 1H speed bump. We'll see what will happened.

Have a great weekend to all!
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  • #258
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:17pm Jun 21, 2013 1:17pm
GBP yen trade worked out. It was hit a Original and fresh level near the upper D1 distal level. price is now falling.
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  • #259
  • Jun 24, 2013 4:22am Jun 24, 2013 4:22am
Hi all,
Here is my trade for today.
Yesterday, i analyzed from Weekly, daily and H4 chart and i placed a sell limit.
It was hit at 06:00
Until now, it's going in the good direction.
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  • #260
  • Jun 24, 2013 9:09am Jun 24, 2013 9:09am
Planning a long trade on H4 demand for USDCAD. There is a nice H4 speedbump demand with an unfilled gap. It looks like it wants to run without me, but there is my order.

If D1 supply is hit before my long entry triggers, I will cancel it.
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