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  • #761
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:18am Jun 23, 2013 4:18am
Quoting The Fool
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmar...d=yahoobarrons Also watching EWW, looking for long entries if it drops below $55, will consider some vertical spread also, Mexico will bounce with the US, if and when... {image}
took a look at it, it bounced of the 200 day. to me it has lots of room to go down further and data to be filled. $47 area may be a better area to do a bull spread, may take a few months before its ready, then again i could be wrong.
  • #762
  • Edited 12:46pm Jun 23, 2013 12:33pm | Edited 12:46pm
Naw, I wouldn't touch longs on any em plays now, instead maybe catch a downtrend. The more I cogitate the more I think we will see more unwinding out of equities. It could be a slow trend over the summer, but I'd bet we could see S&P dip down to touch the 200ma, that would be 1,480 or so. I may be looking to buy longer term (Sep '13) SSO or UPRO puts...maybe a 45/55 bear spread on the latter...
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  • #763
  • Jun 23, 2013 1:08pm Jun 23, 2013 1:08pm
TLT - downmoves overdone? ... following from DJ Newswires...


"Options traders are betting the recent drop in Treasury prices is overdone, with investors looking for a bounce back from the lowest levels since 2011 by mid-September.

Investors put in place two large options trades that the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) would move higher through September, with one trader looking for gains of as much as 8.4% over the next three months. A move of that size would bring the bond exchange-traded fund back to levels last seen in mid-May.

"The recent moves have all been based on the Fed, and some are saying it was a little overblown," said Brian Overby, senior options analyst at online brokerage TradeKing. "These are bullish trades trying to take advantage of an increase in volatility."

The TLT fund, which rises and falls in line with Treasury prices, fell $1.39, or 1.3%, to $108.88 by midafternoon Friday, extending this week's slide to 4.3% and leaving the fund at a 21-month low. The fund has slipped 12% since the beginning of May as Treasury prices have dropped, pushing yields on the benchmark 10-year notes to 2.52%.

But the largest TLT options trade of the day Friday sees the fund moving back above $110 and staying there throughout the third quarter.

The investor sold 5,953 September $110 "put" options, which grant the buyer the right to sell shares at that price through expiration Sept. 20. In selling the contracts, the trader accepts the obligation to buy 595,300 shares at that price should the buyer exercise that option. The trader collected $4.55 a share on the trade, or a total of $2.71 million, on the sale.

The investor was able to collect more in selling the options because of a rise in implied volatility-a measure of expectations for future stock swings and a key component of options pricing. TLT three-month implied volatility rose to 17.02 Friday, the highest level since September 2012. In early May, that reading was as low as 12.08.

Shares fell below $110 for the first time since September 2011 Friday. That means, to maximize profits--to hold on to the entire $2.71 million collected on the trade--the trader is looking for shares to gain back 1% in the coming months to finish above that level. He or she begins to lose money should TLT fall below $105.45--the "strike" price minus the amount collected per share on the sale.

Meanwhile, another investor set up a similar optimistic trade, buying stock and selling options to help cut the cost of the purchase.

The investor sold 5,000 September $118 "call" for 79 cents a share, or a total of $395,000, while simultaneously buying stock, according to data from options-data firm Trade Alert. That trade suggests the investor sees the current level as a good place to buy shares, but sees gains over the next three months limited to 8.4%. Should TLT rise above $118, the trader would be required to sell his or her shares.

By Kaitlyn Kiernan"
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #764
  • Jun 23, 2013 1:55pm Jun 23, 2013 1:55pm
OK, sure, slide in equities, move back into bonds, and dare I say moves back into gold...that actually makes some sense. The options on this thing are thin and overpriced, but.....5-day swing $87 - $137.....I tried to buy a bear spread on Fri. with DUST at $135, didn't have the free equity to do it....
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  • #765
  • Edited 2:51pm Jun 23, 2013 2:15pm | Edited 2:51pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

bloomberg has a good calendar, all US focus. I will be watching the housing number on Tue and GDP on Wed. Underperformance there should tank equities for the rest of the week.

Beyond next week is 1st week of July, with NFP on 7/5 shoehorned in after the 4th of July. So maybe ADP on 7/3 gets added attention. Housing and jobs. They're chained together at the cliff's edge. Housing some 15% of the US economy, we'll never have a strong slide in unemployment rate unless housing recovers in steady strength. Rising 10yr note yields correlate directly to the 30-yr mortgage rates - can the housing market live with mortgage rates >5%? Well longterm sure, but in the short term could be a heavy blow. Next two weeks housing and jobs data should keep volatility up....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #766
  • Jun 23, 2013 2:40pm Jun 23, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting The Fool
OK, sure, slide in equities, move back into bonds, and dare I say moves back into gold...
if the 10yr Tnote yield trend reverses then gold and the miners will benefit. NUGT Sept 13 $10 calls are $0.60 now. NUGT $10 last correlated to Gold at around $1,380....
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  • #767
  • Jun 23, 2013 2:49pm Jun 23, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting successlife
Do you have any candidates for monday ?
OK, based on ramblings above, I will be watching the 10yr note yield for a pullback and the housing data on Tuesday, the GDP data on Wed. I am leaning short equities but waiting to see the signs. If things line up as I'm guessing then GDX might be good for a $2 bounce...the $26.50 weekly calls are at $0.14, will be watching those....will post others later
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #768
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:24pm Jun 23, 2013 4:24pm
Quoting The Fool
TLT - downmoves overdone? ... following from DJ Newswires... "Options traders are betting the recent drop in Treasury prices is overdone, with investors looking for a bounce back from the lowest levels since 2011 by mid-September. Investors put in place two large options trades that the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) would move higher through September, with one trader looking for gains of as much as 8.4% over the next three months. A move of that size would bring the bond exchange-traded fund back to levels last seen in mid-May....
very interesting read, and i'm too buying puts in certain equities, financials and technologies
  • #769
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:31pm Jun 23, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting The Fool
TLT - downmoves overdone? ... following from DJ Newswires... "Options traders are betting the recent drop in Treasury prices is overdone, with investors looking for a bounce back from the lowest levels since 2011 by mid-September. Investors put in place two large options trades that the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) would move higher through September, with one trader looking for gains of as much as 8.4% over the next three months. A move of that size would bring the bond exchange-traded fund back to levels last seen in mid-May....
On my charts it looks to me we may see TLT test 106.56 and if it doesn't bounce from there then down to 102.41 and 101 where it may bounce, don't if this will happen before septembers expiration, lets wait and find out
  • #770
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:32pm Jun 23, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OK, based on ramblings above, I will be watching the 10yr note yield for a pullback and the housing data on Tuesday, the GDP data on Wed. I am leaning short equities but waiting to see the signs. If things line up as I'm guessing then GDX might be good for a $2 bounce...the $26.50 weekly calls are at $0.14, will be watching those....will post others later
Thanks !
Always you trade for news ? or add some chart elements ? ( like S/R)
  • #771
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:34pm Jun 23, 2013 4:34pm
got my eyes on priceline/google/aig/vz/ and a few others for put action this week
  • #772
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:41pm Jun 23, 2013 4:41pm
Always wanted to look at options, FYI chaps the stock markets are in crash mode, we go down till 2016 December. But my recent analysis points to a possible rebound to 16-17th August 2013. If we go sideways to this date watch out for it, my crystal ball is telling me to expect a panic down day in the indexes.

I would not buy stocks for anything, just want to warm you folks.

Keep up the good work

Mike
  • #773
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:45pm Jun 23, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting Mike Haran
Always wanted to look at options, FYI chaps the stock markets are in crash mode, we go down till 2016 December. But my recent analysis points to a possible rebound to 16-17th August 2013. If we go sideways to this date watch out for it, my crystal ball is telling me to expect a panic down day in the indexes. I would not buy stocks for anything, just want to warm you folks. Keep up the good work Mike
Thanks for your input many strategies to take advantage in both directions
  • #774
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:50pm Jun 23, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} On my charts it looks to me we may see TLT test 106.56 and if it doesn't bounce from there then down to 102.41 and 101 where it may bounce, don't if this will happen before septembers expiration,
lets wait and find out
107.93 is another area i've just seen, note we're also coming to the end of the month
  • #775
  • Jun 23, 2013 5:40pm Jun 23, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting The Fool
OK, sure, slide in equities, move back into bonds, and dare I say moves back into gold...that actually makes some sense. The options on this thing are thin and overpriced, but.....5-day swing $87 - $137.....I tried to buy a bear spread on Fri. with DUST at $135, didn't have the free equity to do it.... {image}
if silver can not maintain above $20 then silvers will keep falling taking Gold wth it short term and longer term
  • #776
  • Jun 23, 2013 6:58pm Jun 23, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting Mike Haran
FYI chaps the stock markets are in crash mode, we go down till 2016 December.... just want to warm you folks. Keep up the good work Mike
Well, Mike that's a bold call. Not sure I can concur, but I appreciate the warning.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #777
  • Jun 23, 2013 7:14pm Jun 23, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting successlife
{quote} Thanks ! Always you trade for news ? or add some chart elements ? ( like S/R)
I try to put as many pieces of the puzzle together as I can, but I don't go nuts with chart analytics. I don't look at fibs, for instance, usually just s/r levels on multiple tf's, ma's sometimes...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #778
  • Jun 24, 2013 4:09am Jun 24, 2013 4:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
VZ (VERIZON) looks good for $48 put come next week, just hope they don't move it before the market opens on monday $48 put option is priced at 15c. with any luck the underly moves up a little then down a little so a little more time decay can take effect making that option cheaper to buy. We shall see Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) -NYSE 49.52 {image} 0.56(1.14%) Jun 21, 4:04PM EDT|After Hours : 49.50 {image} 0.02 (0.04%) Jun 21, 7:27PM EDT
looks like they will have already started without us when markets open in just over 2 hours time
  • #779
  • Jun 24, 2013 4:11am Jun 24, 2013 4:11am
Quoting Cecil Gee
got my eyes on priceline/google/aig/vz/ and a few others for put action this week
damn you pre market traders will miss out on these too, pre market already down significantly
  • #780
  • Jun 24, 2013 4:20am Jun 24, 2013 4:20am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Google closed $880, its on the brink for some put action. $878 or lower should do it next week
Google trading at $872.xx pre market

Google Inc. (GOOG)
-NasdaqGS
880.93 Jun 21, 4:00PM EDT|Pre-Market : 872.99 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 7.94 (0.90%) 7:15AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
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