The Club!

yes welcome back Raza... good to see you again

retrace tonight me thinks... if 3098 should hold then we should see 3179 and 3198... possibly more.. breaking 3098 will most certainly lead to 3020 this week.

In case you missed this in my Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading @ http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=433728&page=1


The Optimum Time Frame for Trading

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=336715

Ha, 3096 was a nice hit.

MM and MMSMP


With 15min and 1h TF MMSMP now open down to around 3030, extended 3000 (that defines our risk at the moment) we have the following situation on higher TF's:


H4:

Murrey Math seems to be somewhat exhausted and calls for 3184 to 3306

MMSMP is open to 3042 and 2959 to the lower side, but looking at the profile price has left the area of 3230 to 3320 prone for filling


D1

Murrey Math: a rejection here near the 3/8 line would leafe the price vulnerable to 3305, eventually to new highs. Below the actual price there is fairly huge support now. Should we take out 3062, next target may be 2940

MMSMP: the POC is here @ 2974, the average VPO @ 3083. That means, with current low at Friday at 30975 price has already mean reverted on this TF.

Looking at the profile, the area between 2974 and around 330 may need fill up


W1

Murrey Math : price is between 4/8 and 3/8 Maybe we need some re-testing of the 4/8 level in order to drop more

MMSMP: a fairly huge POC has been build @ 3207. That should offer some good resistance. The area between this 3207 and 3078 (also very good support now) need a bit of filling. Maybe we will see some back and forth here. A break of 3207 to the upper side may eventually offer a fairly bullish opportunity, easily up to around 3518 to 3720



Mo1

Murrey Math screams for 2695 and 1719 as remote target. We have to look at 3184 to get a clue. When 3184 is taken out to the upper side possible and likely target is 3672


MMSMP: the mean is 3352, and the POC is 3096, which rejected us on Friday. A break below 3096 may lead to around 258x, in order to fill this area. looking at the profile the price looks to be prone to fill the area between 3096 and around 400 (as a bear I hate that view)




Conclusion

The easy part of this movement has now been done. Now starts the tricky part.

Near term downside seems to be limited, whereas the risk of a (huge) upside swing can not be denied.


From an Elliott Wave point of view 2944 seems to be a critical level. Going below that is definitively very bearish. Staying above, the bulls have still all options. (judging from weekly TF)


Short term we may find good shorting ops around 3184 to 3214, or longing ops around 3062, 3031 and 3000

EW - bearish case


The high around 34x was the end of a C-wave impulse of an ABC-flat (up), most likely the end of a wave 2 (up).


Now we are down in an impulse, which should lead us back below 1.18


Judging from the wave structure on different TF;s, we can right now not say with high certainity, which impulsive structure is unfolding. Judging from daily TF alone, I would tend to say 1-2-(1-2-(1-2- or 1-2-(1-2-3-

In the latter case price must not run above 3160

There is even a chance for 1-2-3-4-5 as wave 1, then a small wave 2 up, and now in the beginnings of a wave 3 down


Here is one possible count:

regarding Gold:


friends, be careful of shorting Gold at this levels. You know, my bias in Gold is towards sub 1000, but at the moment sentiment data as well as COT data may suggest, that the time for a (temporary) long play is emerging.


Daily sentiment index in Gold just fell below 3% Gold bulls. At similiar values it was on April the 15th. this year. The Commercials have not had such a tiny short position in Gold for decades now.


When we look at a weekly chart (or monthly), and price is about to revert from here, near term structure may be an ABC-flat, where we are now in wave B down. The wave C impulse snapback may be quiet painful, when someone shorts at this levels. Targets for such a wave C move were 1375 to 1437, but 1500 would be a lege artis target also.


But as most of the time with sentiment /COT data, the reaction can come with delay. In this case I would like to see a further few weeks of down to work off some wave 4, wave 5 actions. Target for that would be idealy 1187-1185 as first step, later on then 1000-875.


I still feel, that the final target is the support shelf between 1000 and 670

MMSMP and MM


seems, that we would optimally need fill of the area up to 1380 on daily and 4h TF

I think if price lose 1.309x-6x area we going to see 1.29 this week.

If price stay above 1.309x-6x probably it may range between 1.31 and 1.32

Hello Polatok,

How are you.

Looks like you are working hard. But don't try to catch every wave as EW can be very deceiving.

Understand that Price is everything.

thanks for the advice man. waiting for your updates.

Good morning!

I'm looking to go long on AUD USD - Cot Data are very good.

http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.de/ Elliott Wave Count

yes soon we will see an aud/usd long chance.

Just eat birani........ now feeling sleepy

Buy area for me is 0.9100 - 0.9052

i will keep waiting for near 0.9033

also don't forget to update me when you place a long.

ok

This is the 30m count i prefer for now. based on this count eur/usd will go up for complete wave 2 but i suggest not to trade this long opportunity because eur/usd is in full bearish mood. batter wait for batter position to go short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Trading Central



EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1.3175

Our preference: Short positions below 1.3175 with targets @ 1.307 & 1.305 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.3175 look for further upside with 1.323 & 1.325 as targets.

Comment: the pair is posting a slight rebound but stands below its resistance and remains under pressure.

Key levels
1.325
1.323
1.3175
1.31109 last
1.307
1.305
1.299





Ticker : EUR


http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...1362493236.GIF

EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1.3175

Our preference: Short positions below 1.3175 with targets @ 1.307 & 1.305 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.3175 look for further upside with 1.323 & 1.325 as targets.

Comment: the pair is posting a slight rebound but stands below its resistance and remains under pressure.

Key levels
1.325
1.323
1.3175
1.31169 last
1.307
1.305
1.299





Ticker : EUR


http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...3624112252.GIF

DBR or DBD 1H TF