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  • #721
  • Jun 20, 2013 7:36pm Jun 20, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ABX closed at $16.60, my option went as high as $1.56 before closing at $1.43 but closed earlier at $1.28 giving me a return of just over 18x my investment


Awesome, CG. I wanna git me one a them. I too am inclined to sit on my hands the remainder of the week but will of course be watching thru tomorrow. Also I am inclined to foretell a bounce of gold similar to the rebound we saw after the big April takedown, but I ain't jumping in any related trades. I bet we could see a pretty quick falloff in volatility and there will be a VXX put trade to be made, but I am gonna try not to jump the gun there. Watching Asia, I think the China interbank rates news may not be as disruptive as some think, but we'll see.

...I already see gold sliding a bit more in early Asia.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #722
  • Jun 20, 2013 7:41pm Jun 20, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Awesome, CG. I wanna git me one a them. I too am inclined to sit on my hands the remainder of the week but will of course be watching thru tomorrow. Also I am inclined to foretell a bounce of gold similar to the rebound we saw after the big April takedown, but I ain't jumping in any related trades. I bet we could see a pretty quick falloff in volatility and there will be a VXX put trade to be made, but I am gonna try not to jump the gun there. Watching Asia, I think the China interbank rates news may not be as disruptive as...
Thanks and careful with that VXX, they tested the 50 day on wednesday and it held firm at 19.22 i think. I'm going to wait for the new week IV is high everywhere
  • #723
  • Jun 20, 2013 7:46pm Jun 20, 2013 7:46pm
your right T.F. GOLD extending its fall in asia
  • #724
  • Jun 20, 2013 7:54pm Jun 20, 2013 7:54pm
If google doesn't bounce soon then there next for some put plays, it closed at $884 today
  • #725
  • Jun 20, 2013 7:55pm Jun 20, 2013 7:55pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Thanks and careful with that VXX, they tested the 50 day on wednesday and it held firm at 19.22 i think. I'm going to wait for the new week IV is high everywhere
one thing I saw re: VXX is the very large spreads that show with increased volatility....given that, it might be cheaper to play one of the liquid leveraged ETF's instead

my Sep $100 TLT puts are $0.20 itm, I wonder if the Fed will screw me...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #726
  • Jun 20, 2013 8:00pm Jun 20, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} one thing I saw re: VXX is the very large spreads that show with increased volatility....given that, it might be cheaper to play one of the liquid leveraged ETF's instead my Sep $100 TLT puts are $0.20 itm, I wonder if the Fed will screw me...
I can see TLT reaching that level of $100, the only question is will it happen by september
  • #727
  • Jun 20, 2013 8:18pm Jun 20, 2013 8:18pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I can see TLT reaching that level of $100, the only question is will it happen by september
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/to..._schedule.html

POMO ops keep rolling, $15 bio + next week, the crack pipe has not been taken away, we could see a return to biz as usual, the Central Banks are the market, m/l, who knows what they will do? Mortgage lending has taken a big hit with the 10yr runup that has come in just the last couple months. The US needs a broad recovery in housing if there is to be any hope of getting the unemployment rate much lower. Not rocket science. otoh, we used to have month in month out 2,000,000 housing starts back in the days when mortgage rates were 12%+ - 30 years ago. So, somewhere the wizard has a number - is it higher, and how much, and is he all the wizard they say he is?. If we move quickly south of $110 TLT I will at least be able to lock in some profit....saw $109.28 today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #728
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:32am Jun 21, 2013 1:32am
Nikkei up >1.5%, gold up $20, premarket US index futures all green, what goes down must come up. Might look for a good entry on something at the open ...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #729
  • Jun 21, 2013 4:22am Jun 21, 2013 4:22am
Quoting The Fool
Nikkei up >1.5%, gold up $20, premarket US index futures all green, what goes down must come up. Might look for a good entry on something at the open ...
I might too on AIG on the put side, it looks as though it will retrace higher at the open but if it falls below 44.49 then I'll look to buy the $44 put for todays expiration. This all depends on the volume and how high we have retraced from yesterdays close of 44.27. Or I may take a trade for next week on this

American International Group, Inc. (AIG)
-NYSE
44.27 Jun 20, 4:00PM EDT
  • #730
  • Jun 21, 2013 8:44am Jun 21, 2013 8:44am
Quoting The Fool
Nikkei up >1.5%, gold up $20, premarket US index futures all green, what goes down must come up. Might look for a good entry on something at the open ...
premarket VXX down $0.80, but creeping up after the open - I'm out for anything expiring today, but might look for a good VXX put entry for Jun 28
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #731
  • Jun 21, 2013 8:58am Jun 21, 2013 8:58am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I might too on AIG on the put side, it looks as though it will retrace higher at the open but if it falls below 44.49 then I'll look to buy the $44 put for todays expiration. This all depends on the volume and how high we have retraced from yesterdays close of 44.27. Or I may take a trade for next week on this American International Group, Inc. (AIG) -NYSE 44.27 Jun 20, 4:00PM EDT
good read CG, I see several of the financials sliding, see C. ...also, WFC on a bounce, might provide a good put entry
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #732
  • Jun 21, 2013 9:39am Jun 21, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Thanks and careful with that VXX, they tested the 50 day on wednesday and it held firm at 19.22 i think. I'm going to wait for the new week IV is high everywhere
VXX testing Thursday's high, I am watching for a Jun 28 put entry....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #733
  • Jun 21, 2013 12:53pm Jun 21, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} VXX testing Thursday's high, I am watching for a Jun 28 put entry....
been too distracted, was watching when VXX was >$22.50 and ready to buy some Jun 28 puts but got pulled away, will watch for a selloff near the close....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #734
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:17pm Jun 21, 2013 1:17pm
UNG dipping again, Wulfgar, aiming at the $20.00 line, should frack it today
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #735
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:31pm Jun 21, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting The Fool
UNG dipping again, Wulfgar, aiming at the $20.00 line, should frack it today
ya looking like it has some steam.. next real target is that $18.34

bought some Pot today pegged my pending long right at $38.80... winding the stock into a ratio call spread since volatility on her is pretty much in th middle... got 43 deltas on a setp 38/46 call ratio spread... cant complain about that.... shooting for a short term move back to $41 .... risk is already off the table
  • #736
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:42pm Jun 21, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} ya looking like it has some steam.. next real target is that $18.34 bought some Pot today pegged my pending long right at $38.80... winding the stock into a ratio call spread since volatility on her is pretty much in th middle... got 43 deltas on a setp 38/46 call ratio spread... cant complain about that.... shooting for a short term move back to $41 .... risk is already off the table
I like POT, nice channel on the 6mo chart. I am looking for a way to get in on this summer's low in natgas, it could be generational...UNG $18.xx might be as low as she goes....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #737
  • Edited 2:07pm Jun 21, 2013 1:46pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I like POT, nice channel on the 6mo chart. I am looking for a way to get in on this summer's low in natgas, it could be generational...UNG $18.xx might be as low as she goes....

ya I think I can get pretty high on POT...

agreed on nat gas.... good R:R should it make its way down to those levels

also took today as an opportunity to put a trade in my longer term portfolio.... took in 2.60 credit for a AA Jan 15 5/12 call ratio spread.... basically bought 2 12 calls and sold the deep itm option... Put a decent % of my portfolio on the side for this one because I pretty much have to hold it till expiration.. worst case scenario is I end up owning AA @ $5 which I wouldnt be unhappy about because i dont think the company is going anywhere.... more than likely it stays in the rang and i keep the credit... if it breaks 12 I then can exercise my long calls and own the stock free and clear.... so the trade shouldnt ultimately cost me anything other than my margin tied up as long as AA doesnt go past 5$
  • #738
  • Jun 21, 2013 2:14pm Jun 21, 2013 2:14pm
well looks like I missed the boat on a good VXX put entry, not looking like there will be an end dump. That's what I get for being a working Joe. I'm better off this way, though. Returns in one of my Roth IRA's was >25% this week alone. Tax free.
So suck it, IRS.

10 yr note yield 2.51% and gaining at the close. Peter Schiff (lol) I heard say today it might be 4.0% by the end of the summer. Could be a fun summer.....Not thinking we see the VIX swings next week though.

Have a great weekend everbody.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #739
  • Jun 21, 2013 2:17pm Jun 21, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} took in 2.60 credit for a AA Jan 15 5/12 call ratio spread.... basically bought 2 12 calls and sold the deep itm option... Put a decent % of my portfolio on the side for this one because I pretty much have to hold it till expiration.. worst case scenario is I end up owning AA @ $5 which I wouldnt be unhappy about because i dont think the company is going anywhere.... more than likely it stays in the rang and i keep the credit... if it breaks 12 I then can exercise my long calls and own the stock free and clear.... so the trade shouldnt...
Alcoa, lol I used to work for those fucks. Yeah, they'll be around forever. I like that trade.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #740
  • Jun 21, 2013 2:30pm Jun 21, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting The Fool
well looks like I missed the boat on a good VXX put entry, not looking like there will be an end dump. That's what I get for being a working Joe. I'm better off this way, though. Returns in one of my Roth IRA's was >25% this week alone. Tax free. So suck it, IRS. 10 yr note yield 2.51% and gaining at the close. Peter Schiff (lol) I heard say today it might be 4.0% by the end of the summer. Could be a fun summer.....Not thinking we see the VIX swings next week though. Have a great weekend everbody.

rates always climb during summer... but up to %4.0?? gotta suspend disbelief to see that kind of meteoric rise...

great job on ur Roth brother...I bled out on this unforeseen vix surge on many of my options positions... caught a couple huge moves in FX though(namely the huge aussie dump) and that hedged out the ass kicking I took for selling vega premium

so cant complain, made enough to buy some egg whites and pay for my gym membership

Have agood one brother

Im digging the alcoa trade too...
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