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Beyond the Candles

  • #1,281
  • Jun 10, 2013 9:08am Jun 10, 2013 9:08am
Hi

AUDNZD-the P turned back into the doji's range as RM where the sellers wiil look to start selling again ( 1.22 )

GOLD -nice levels-we are seeing how the 1329 act as strong S where the P try to consolidate above it, so the safiest way to trade it is selling bellow with its confirmation as R....notice the space and the lack of S/R levels till the next S as TG level...this is a good information about the P's momentum till the next TG !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,282
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:30pm Jun 10, 2013 7:30pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold-d1-trading-point-of-2.png Size: 39 KB

I know it is much risky.
  • #1,283
  • Jun 11, 2013 4:43am Jun 11, 2013 4:43am
This is one the main reasons why we reading the higher TFs...the space for MM of our trades !....ovviously, in order to be able to keep the trades as long as possible especially in the initial part of the trades when is the most difficult, we have to make that selection that allows us to have enough space till the first D TG where we must put our trades on safe !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,284
  • Jun 11, 2013 8:59am Jun 11, 2013 8:59am
EURSGD-the P reached a very important dynamic R level= time for MM and waiting for further informations. If it will close above it then 1.70 become the very next TG !
I am long since 2013.05.17 and at the candle's close I will take some partial profit !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-06-11_15-48_EURSGD.png Size: 48 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,285
  • Jun 11, 2013 12:14pm Jun 11, 2013 12:14pm
Its been a long time, but want to recommit with some charts to study. I have missed too many opportunities, which hurts. Of course it is easier in hindsight reading the left of the chart, but hopefully, by getting in sync on the higher timeframes again, I will not lose the trees for the forest ( or something along those lines) as the saying goes, and catch the next one for real as it happens to the right of the chart where it matters.
Let me start with a AUDCHF, which is old news but anyways...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,286
  • Jun 13, 2013 2:15pm Jun 13, 2013 2:15pm
Hi FX Group. Great thread which I am reading over and over again!
Question: With the general forex trend this week turning against the overall trend established over the past few weeks (e.g, JPY and AUD making large recoveries) do you (a) close out your positions e.g short JPY and AUD trades (b) stick with the overall plan and take the hit in the short term or (c) find other unrelated markets to trade?
  • #1,287
  • Jun 13, 2013 6:28pm Jun 13, 2013 6:28pm
HI fx Group. I have a question too. Do you always wait the weekly candle close to open a position? The gbpnzd reached RN and dynamic trendline and a monthly level (1.98824) and outside bar on 06.12, four opinions to go short, but I didn't open short position because the last weekly candle was long.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd-d2.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd-w2.png Size: 42 KB
  • #1,288
  • Jun 14, 2013 8:51am Jun 14, 2013 8:51am
Quoting gbegley
Hi FX Group. Great thread which I am reading over and over again! Question: With the general forex trend this week turning against the overall trend established over the past few weeks (e.g, JPY and AUD making large recoveries) do you (a) close out your positions e.g short JPY and AUD trades (b) stick with the overall plan and take the hit in the short term or (c) find other unrelated markets to trade?
Hi gb and welcome !

JPY is in bearish trend as you said over the past weeks....and this is clear that at the first strong bearish information we have to close the positions based of the P's information...AUDJPY is a clear exemple of why we had to wait for shrt it and where and why to close the short positions !
AUD is in bearish strong and is not a surprise at all...take a look at the AUDNZD or AUDUSD / AUDCAD....so many charts with nice bearish informations !

AUDJPY-long untill we have the information of bearish 2MPB that talls us the P will retest the old RM....when we see the bearish information we are closing the long position and after the P's reading we wait for D bearish confirmation !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ.png Size: 38 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,289
  • Jun 17, 2013 6:03am Jun 17, 2013 6:03am
Quoting Beertje
HI fx Group. I have a question too. Do you always wait the weekly candle close to open a position? The gbpnzd reached RN and dynamic trendline and a monthly level (1.98824) and outside bar on 06.12, four opinions to go short, but I didn't open short position because the last weekly candle was long. {image} {image}
The W candle closed is an extra information. Trading directly based on D without W closed that gives you the information you need, you will allways have a deep RET against your direction, just because the higher TF need its RET..very often you will notice this as DT / DB forming !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,290
  • Jun 19, 2013 2:44pm Jun 19, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting livindaylite
Its been a long time, but want to recommit with some charts to study. I have missed too many opportunities, which hurts. Of course it is easier in hindsight reading the left of the chart, but hopefully, by getting in sync on the higher timeframes again, I will not lose the trees for the forest ( or something along those lines) as the saying goes, and catch the next one for real as it happens to the right of the chart where it matters. Let me start with a AUDCHF, which is old news but anyways..
I'd like to talk about your "what is that" in the M chart.

At first sight it's a non pattern. It's a 2M PB that failed to form, as the 2nd bar did not close at or below the first bar open.
But wait, this thread is called "beyond the candles" for a reason: we look at price action patterns in a bigger picture, a picture called "context", where the only entity that matters is price.

The 2nd bar indeed failed to form a proper PB but closed below the resistance defined by that "n.c.a." swing you indicated.
This plus the (failed) 2M PB pattern size and lack of sellers in the swing before it, suggests an attempt at direct trend inversion.
This tells us that we have to look for short opportunities.
The 2M PB along with the next swing circled IB-quasi-PB also show us a dynamic head and shoulders in the making (and thus its target).
2 months later, indeed price got to the H&S target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF-M-2013.png Size: 91 KB
  • #1,291
  • Jun 19, 2013 3:47pm Jun 19, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting dfumagalli
{quote} I'd like to talk about your "what is that" in the M chart. At first sight it's a non pattern. It's a 2M PB that failed to form, as the 2nd bar did not close at or below the first bar open. But wait, this thread is called "beyond the candles" for a reason: we look at price action patterns in a bigger picture, a picture called "context", where the only entity that matters is price. The 2nd bar indeed failed to form a proper PB but closed below the resistance defined by that "n.c.a." swing you indicated. This plus the (failed) 2M PB...
Thank you for illuminating the chart!
  • #1,292
  • Jun 20, 2013 4:25am Jun 20, 2013 4:25am
Quoting fxgroup
{quote} The W candle closed is an extra information. Trading directly based on D without W closed that gives you the information you need, you will allways have a deep RET against your direction, just because the higher TF need its RET..very often you will notice this as DT / DB forming !

Thanks
  • #1,293
  • Jun 20, 2013 6:50am Jun 20, 2013 6:50am
CADCHF
The pair is in RM with the P still under the PB controll ( none on the candles after, close bellow the PB's low ), but with the sellers that are trying to close bellow the RM.
One the most important factors that creats RM formation is the presence of 2 important levels..in this case we have the RM's S level and the 0.90 BRN.

My plan is to see the P close above the 0.9078 and then its confirmation as S in order to buy it till 0.95 as RM's R level and the main target ( TG ) !..this is my plan and if the P won't respect it, I will stay out !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-06-20_13-43_cadchf.png Size: 45 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,294
  • Jun 22, 2013 11:06am Jun 22, 2013 11:06am
Quoting fxgroup
CADCHF The pair is in RM with the P still under the PB controll ( none on the candles after, close bellow the PB's low ), but with the sellers that are trying to close bellow the RM. One the most important factors that creats RM formation is the presence of 2 important levels..in this case we have the RM's S level and the 0.90 BRN. My plan is to see the P close above the 0.9078 and then its confirmation as S in order to buy it till 0.95 as RM's R level and the main target ( TG ) !..this is my plan and if the P won't respect it, I will stay out !...
I think a situation change a kind of.
Now, we have W close below S, which now act as R, and we see D hestitation and close as doji.
We have to wait for RET and D confirmation to set TG 87.94 as first .

In coming days might see forming PB below W R, but it might be just RET and misleading information.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,295
  • Jun 23, 2013 3:50pm Jun 23, 2013 3:50pm
You right...regarding trading the selection criteria of our trades , knowing when and how to trade but most of all to respect our rulles make an edge and is the difference between a gainer and a looser !
My previous post has one of the most important part of Trading Psychology: if the P doesn't respect my PTT= I stay out !
...and is not only about the plan but it is also the respect for ourselves and the respect for our trading skills and abilities !

The only problem you will have to face with, is gaved by the space till the next TG and the risk of your MM !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,296
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:46pm Jun 23, 2013 4:46pm
Yes, It is not good to trade this one at the moment, because of very tihgt space as you mentioned Fxgroup.
It is only one of possibilities, it is much better to find better pair or waiting till we understand price.
  • #1,297
  • Jun 24, 2013 12:49pm Jun 24, 2013 12:49pm
Hi FxGroup, attached are charts on PA and RT in D based on W RM observation. Awaiting for your comments. Thanks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzdweekly.jpg Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzddaily.jpg Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audchfweekly.jpg Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audchfdaily.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #1,298
  • Jun 25, 2013 2:08am Jun 25, 2013 2:08am
Quoting sodiska
Hi FxGroup, attached are charts on PA and RT in D based on W RM observation. Awaiting for your comments. Thanks. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi sodiska
Great charts..notice how simple is to trade using this very powerful market structure ( RM )....once the P closed outside of it, all we have to do a confiemation that the RM now acts as S / R !

EURNZD-very interesting as the RET was made with an IB then the level's confirmation as S with the BUOB !
AUDCAD-very similar situation with the P what close bellow the RM, RET on it and the seller's confirmation with bearish PA pattern ( bearish 2DPB ) !

Put more chart with this kind of price's behaviour and let's talk about it !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,299
  • Jun 25, 2013 5:00am Jun 25, 2013 5:00am
Here are some others cases when the P closes above/ bellow a RM and retest it right to its R/S level !
Notice how important is to identify the RM's S/ R using the SW's open / close !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-06-25_11-54_AUDCAD.png Size: 47 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,300
  • Jun 25, 2013 12:34pm Jun 25, 2013 12:34pm
Hi, more charts, this time is NZDUSD.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdweekly.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusddaily.png Size: 28 KB
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