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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,061
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:34am Jun 18, 2013 11:34am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} ignored... V
I read the first page, but after 41k posts these threads tend to go off in different directions. The topic interests me so I figured someone can quickly brief me on important or cool posts by FTI or anyone else. That's all. I will gracefully exit the thread. Thanks.
  • #41,062
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:43am Jun 18, 2013 11:43am
Quoting Smokeymar
{quote} I read the first page, but after 41k posts these threads tend to go off in different directions. The topic interests me so I figured someone can quickly brief me on important or cool posts by FTI or anyone else. That's all. I will gracefully exit the thread. Thanks.

Need. To read 200 pages before things comes into the picture try you might enjoy it
  • #41,063
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:45pm Jun 18, 2013 11:45pm
I think it is vital to read all the associated material that was recommended by fti in the early days too. Some of it may come in handy and some of it you may find does not help you to trade better so you can perhaps put it to one side. However, it would be silly to dismiss chart patterns and other clues without knowing what it is that you are throwing away.

I have been studying candlestick formations in more detail recently and it has definitely improved my ability to spot when the market is stalling or possibly about to start retracing. I'm not sure how many of us have actually studied the material I am talking about but speaking for myself, I tried to fly by the seat of my pants when I first started, without building a solid foundation for my trading activities.
  • #41,064
  • Jun 19, 2013 1:57am Jun 19, 2013 1:57am
Is it frowned upon to post charts in this thread?

I'd love to hear some discussion (general stuff only) about what people are looking at in terms of major trends.

Looking at the daily I like Long EUR/USD and USD/CAD (more so EUR/USD tho because H1 is also up trend, but I feel USD/CAD could be turning)

These are not predictions, just my sentiments at this time - and I'm am a complete novice - so please no-one take this as advice or anything like that.
  • #41,065
  • Jun 19, 2013 2:15am Jun 19, 2013 2:15am
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} Hey Nomadic, will try to give my opinion of an answer to your questions. Regarding your first point, i think it is good as you put it that you become hyper-aware when you have many troops in play, it is at this point that your exposure is high and so also your risk. You want to be nimble when this is the situation. When you see signs of the market stalling and slowing, I think it is right to be cautious, things can turn in the blink of an eye, so the only way to protect ourselves is to be very nimble. As you say you do not want things to...
Hey Acs,

In my current underfunded state I've also come to the conclusion that leaving profits on the table is actually a good thing. Preservation of capital at all costs. Funny how writing things down helps make it clearer in your head, I find it works in all lifes problems. Articulate the problem, and before you're done you usually have the solution.

How about the dynamic exciting strategy? Do you utilize that? My broker has this 'one click trading' add-on for MT4 which lets me close all positions at a click of a button. So that is what I have been doing.

It seems from your response you are dynamically adjusting your troops as things unfold. What is your usual MO there? Exit all except the scout when you see signs of price stalling, and then add back in if it goes your way again?
  • #41,066
  • Jun 19, 2013 3:29am Jun 19, 2013 3:29am
Quoting nomadic123
Is it frowned upon to post charts in this thread? I'd love to hear some discussion (general stuff only) about what people are looking at in terms of major trends. Looking at the daily I like Long EUR/USD and USD/CAD (more so EUR/USD tho because H1 is also up trend, but I feel USD/CAD could be turning) These are not predictions, just my sentiments at this time - and I'm am a complete novice - so please no-one take this as advice or anything like that.
Well, as I am in Japanese candlestick pattern mode, I will say that GBP/USD looks bearish to me. I see a dumpling top (albeit without a window because this is a 24-hour market), a hanging man from last Friday and a bearish belt hold candle yesterday (with a near doji on Monday - call it a spinning top if you like).
  • #41,067
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:36am Jun 19, 2013 4:36am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Well, as I am in Japanese candlestick pattern mode, I will say that GBP/USD looks bearish to me. I see a dumpling top (albeit without a window because this is a 24-hour market), a hanging man from last Friday and a bearish belt hold candle yesterday (with a near doji on Monday - call it a spinning top if you like).
I would not be running to sell the GBPUSD just yet, better wait another 3 hours, and buy it for a rebound instead if a buy setup develops.
  • #41,068
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:44am Jun 19, 2013 4:44am
In think he may have been referring to longer term than the next 3 hours.

Some pretty detailed candlestick patterns you're describing there. Might have to start brushing up on all that.
  • #41,069
  • Jun 19, 2013 6:44am Jun 19, 2013 6:44am
Quoting balmfx
{quote} I would not be running to sell the GBPUSD just yet, better wait another 3 hours, and buy it for a rebound instead if a buy setup develops.
I already sold it from 60 down to 14 but nomadic is right, we were discussing daily charts.
  • #41,070
  • Jun 19, 2013 6:48am Jun 19, 2013 6:48am
Quoting nomadic123
In think he may have been referring to longer term than the next 3 hours. Some pretty detailed candlestick patterns you're describing there. Might have to start brushing up on all that.
I find them really useful although you don't want to get married to your analysis of course. Whatever is said later tonight could have a big effect.
  • #41,071
  • Jun 19, 2013 11:22am Jun 19, 2013 11:22am
I don't know exactly why but the area in the GBP/USD chart that I have circled in blue looks a little odd to me - too regimented. It doesn't seem like a natural move; not from my experience of following Cable over the last few years anyway.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.png Size: 44 KB
  • #41,072
  • Jun 19, 2013 11:52am Jun 19, 2013 11:52am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I don't know exactly why but the area in the GBP/USD chart that I have circled in blue looks a little odd to me - too regimented. It doesn't seem like a natural move; not from my experience of following Cable over the last few years anyway. {image}
the rise is smooth. what bothers you? can you try tell?

regards
  • #41,073
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:00pm Jun 19, 2013 12:00pm
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} the rise is smooth. what bothers you? can you try tell? regards
Yeah, it's too smooth. Four very similar steps up and super mild retraces. It looks like the market makers decided where they wanted to go but didn't want to get there too quickly. Of course, there could be many other rational explanations and maybe I've been sitting here staring at charts for too long recently but it just strikes me as a little odd.

EDIT: If you think it looks normal, it's probably just me losing my mind Cuthbert!
  • #41,074
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:23pm Jun 19, 2013 12:23pm
My friends, beware fomc at 2.

regards
  • #41,075
  • Jun 20, 2013 3:48am Jun 20, 2013 3:48am
How do you handle news releases?

My current strategy is to look at the FF calendar before I enter a trade, and if my pair has a release coming up color coded in red in the next 4 or 5 hours I don't trade it because I don't want to get caught on the wrong side while I have troops active. I don't pay attention to anything in orange or yellow.


I.e If I want to trade the USD/CAD and I see a red news release for either CAD or USD in the next 4 hours, I won't trade that pair.

I'm saying 4 or 5 hours cos thats usually my about the maximum time I would spend in each trade.

So how do you fellows handle the news? Similar sort of strategy? Or something different?
  • #41,076
  • Jun 20, 2013 5:29am Jun 20, 2013 5:29am
Quoting nomadic123
How do you handle news releases? My current strategy is to look at the FF calendar before I enter a trade, and if my pair has a release coming up color coded in red in the next 4 or 5 hours I don't trade it because I don't want to get caught on the wrong side while I have troops active. I don't pay attention to anything in orange or yellow. I.e If I want to trade the USD/CAD and I see a red news release for either CAD or USD in the next 4 hours, I won't trade that pair. I'm saying 4 or 5 hours cos thats usually my about the maximum time I would...
I just lighten my load if I have a large position on. I would normally try to get out about 30 minutes beforehand if I wanted to avoid the volatility. However, the amount of red news items is too many for me to stop trading 5 hours before each one. I would end up sitting on the side-lines for most of the time.

The only time I spend four or five hours in a trade is if I have made a mess of it!
  • #41,077
  • Jun 20, 2013 6:28am Jun 20, 2013 6:28am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I just lighten my load if I have a large position on. I would normally try to get out about 30 minutes beforehand if I wanted to avoid the volatility. However, the amount of red news items is too many for me to stop trading 5 hours before each one. I would end up sitting on the side-lines for most of the time. The only time I spend four or five hours in a trade is if I have made a mess of it!
Yeah I'm usually out within 20 - 40 mins. 4 Hours would be the end of a very long rescue.
  • #41,078
  • Jun 20, 2013 7:26am Jun 20, 2013 7:26am
Yeah, I understand your concerns. You think, if I take a trade now and the worst happens, I could be several levels into a rescue when the figures come out - which could have serious consequences. I think the only thing to do is to trade more lightly in the run up to important releases and if a scout gets into trouble, don't send any more than one or two more in to help before the news is out and the price action has settled a little.
  • #41,079
  • Jun 20, 2013 8:23am Jun 20, 2013 8:23am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Yeah, I understand your concerns. You think, if I take a trade now and the worst happens, I could be several levels into a rescue when the figures come out - which could have serious consequences. I think the only thing to do is to trade more lightly in the run up to important releases and if a scout gets into trouble, don't send any more than one or two more in to help before the news is out and the price action has settled a little.
sending more troops will be problematic and will be indicative of gambling the news.
is better wait for the news and its effect thereof and then rescue.
theres a difference between fast markets and the markets when the news is released.
the shoot from initial position should define the parameters of rescue attempt.
the major trend isn't disturbed by one or few counter news.
the norm these days is to go a bit other side and then have the news released and go completely opposite
the initial move. that is why i like to say that news is an excuse.
just my 2c.

regards
  • #41,080
  • Jun 20, 2013 8:31am Jun 20, 2013 8:31am
I believe Fti mentions waiting for the news fun to end and then pick the carcass's.
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