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  • #681
  • Jun 17, 2013 4:15pm Jun 17, 2013 4:15pm
NO new trades today, watched a bit, laffed when the market dropped on a little tweet or whatever from the FT. A taste of things to come? I might take a gamble on a post-FOMC selloff via SDS or VXX calls, watching for better entries tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #682
  • Jun 17, 2013 5:12pm Jun 17, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting The Fool
NO new trades today, watched a bit, laffed when the market dropped on a little tweet or whatever from the FT. A taste of things to come? I might take a gamble on a post-FOMC selloff via SDS or VXX calls, watching for better entries tomorrow.
right??

I placed a Jul 52.50/57.50 bear call spread on VZ this Am @ the open ... took in .60 credit with a .10 risk when price hit the 51.55 level

took 2/3rd off near the lows for .29 and have a conditional sell market order if the underlying trades back to $51.00


good little 3:1 R:R trade

nothin to report otherwise

considered selling some puts on lulu but kinds missed the boat
  • #683
  • Jun 17, 2013 7:20pm Jun 17, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} right?? ........ but kinds missed the boat
Speaking of missing the boat, was looking for a lower entry in UNG, which bounced 3.5% today. I may have sold my puts on it at the seasonal low around $19.9.

I don't know about the FOMC - too many plausible scenarios to go over. My gut is there's a topheavy look to the risk trades, but if I make any kind of short term trade I will be playing both ends. Will be looking for something to shoot at next day or so....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #684
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:27am Jun 18, 2013 4:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Speaking of missing the boat, was looking for a lower entry in UNG, which bounced 3.5% today. I may have sold my puts on it at the seasonal low around $19.9. I don't know about the FOMC - too many plausible scenarios to go over. My gut is there's a topheavy look to the risk trades, but if I make any kind of short term trade I will be playing both ends. Will be looking for something to shoot at next day or so....
The only two trades i'm looking to make are on GDX and TLT - AFTER FOMC. If GDX still trades under $29 then i'm a put buyer, above $29.24 then i'll consider calls
  • #685
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:58am Jun 18, 2013 5:58am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} The only two trades i'm looking to make are on GDX and TLT - AFTER FOMC. If GDX still trades under $29 then i'm a put buyer, above $29.24 then i'll consider calls
I might make the trade before the fomc $27 put if i can get it for 8c or under, it closed for 15c yesterday

GDX Jun 2013 27.000 put (GDX130622P00027000)
-OPR
0.15 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.06(28.57%) Jun 17
  • #686
  • Jun 18, 2013 9:24am Jun 18, 2013 9:24am
gold still getting hammered.... getting into some good buying levels finally though


opened a credit spread today on GILD... july 45/50 puts... took $1.05 in credit... risking about $.30 of that... good smaller TF zone to continue the bullish trend... as long as we stay above the 50 level through expiration Ill collect max premium

pretty much almost only been doing credit spreads lately with volatility up like it has been
  • #687
  • Jun 18, 2013 3:30pm Jun 18, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting Wulfgar
gold still getting hammered....
The bottom of the range is creeping lower at glacial pace. I have the put end of an IAU straddle I can get out of with small profit if gold will dip <$1,340 or so.

With nice rallies pre-FOMC I have to bet on a sell-off Wed-Thu. I almost got in some SDS long calls at the close but I was late. Will be watching at the open Wed.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #688
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:11pm Jun 18, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} The bottom of the range is creeping lower at glacial pace. I have the put end of an IAU straddle I can get out of with small profit if gold will dip <$1,340 or so. With nice rallies pre-FOMC I have to bet on a sell-off Wed-Thu. I almost got in some SDS long calls at the close but I was late. Will be watching at the open Wed.
right, wednesday should be where all the action is

I got scared out of my GILD spread today and then watched as price came running back in my favor... closed it for a $.15 profit... mostly scared about holding through the fireworks tmmrw...

man I cant beleive I missed UNG when it dipped under $20 last week.. I was waiting for that but never put in a pending order to buy the stock at $20 and it fell off the radar
  • #689
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:28pm Jun 18, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} right, wednesday should be where all the action is I got scared out of my GILD spread today and then watched as price came running back in my favor... closed it for a $.15 profit... mostly scared about holding through the fireworks tmmrw... man I cant beleive I missed UNG when it dipped under $20 last week.. I was waiting for that but never put in a pending order to buy the stock at $20 and it fell off the radar
UNG I'm not so sure about as a long term play, I just have been trying to swingtrade it. I don't like the multiple splits I see on it. But if you're planning on living a few more years then natgas is a solid bet imo - I'd bet we will see a US ng price double in the next 3 years give or take. Maybe Chesapeake CHK would be a good one - CHK was trading around $70 pre-2009 ... trading at $21.25 now, about the same as UNG, but has a little better liquidity....idk, i'd have to do more dd on CHK....

another ng related one I think i put up a chart before is CLNE (T. Boone Pickens' baby) - that thing has been stuck at $13 +/- 1$ for the last year - good options trader might figure out how to trade that...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #690
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:35pm Jun 18, 2013 6:35pm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1508...s?source=yahoo

"While another VIX pop may be in the cards, history says there is a 72% chance the VIX will decline on Wednesday and that the decline should average about 2.6% or about 0.44 based on the current level of the VIX."

"In the chart below, I have normalized VIX data going back to 1990 to make it easy to compare the mean daily changes in the VIX in the ten trading days preceding FOMC policy statement announcements as well as ten trading days following those announcements."

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/u...psbf0ade6d.png
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #691
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:51pm Jun 18, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} The only two trades i'm looking to make are on GDX and TLT - AFTER FOMC. If GDX still trades under $29 then i'm a put buyer, above $29.24 then i'll consider calls
Good luck, Cecil & beware the post FOMC fakeout - see chart above. I am still looking for downside action, just want to mind my timing. Even if Ben B. gives the entire trading world a 2-hr ass massage, it's too late - the cat is out of the bag, and from here on out all you have to do is yell "Taper!" and the VIX will jump.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #692
  • Jun 18, 2013 7:42pm Jun 18, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I might make the trade before the fomc $27 put if i can get it for 8c or under, it closed for 15c yesterday GDX Jun 2013 27.000 put (GDX130622P00027000) -OPR 0.15 {image} 0.06(28.57%) Jun 17
Never got a chance to get in as the $27 put option opened at 17c and continued to move higher as GDX fell to $27.38

and the option price closed for 33c. I think GDX will blow through that $27 put after the FOMC and gold will edge towards its 52 week low.

if silver breaks $20 level in the coming weeks then Gold will tumble with it and the metal traders know it.
  • #693
  • Jun 18, 2013 7:44pm Jun 18, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Good luck, Cecil & beware the post FOMC fakeout - see chart above. I am still looking for downside action, just want to mind my timing. Even if Ben B. gives the entire trading world a 2-hr ass massage, it's too late - the cat is out of the bag, and from here on out all you have to do is yell "Taper!" and the VIX will jump.
The VIX ain't ready, we need to see it below 10
  • #694
  • Jun 19, 2013 5:38am Jun 19, 2013 5:38am
Been looking at GLD for a put option to play but IV is high thus creating expensive options due to FOMC so been looking around for a alternative option to play where the IV isn't as high.

Found BARRICK GOLD, although different in business fundamentals if the put comes to fruition after the FOMC this may be a better option to play, so i'll be looking to play the $18 put for 7c or under only if its negative for GOLD

ABX Jun 2013 18.000 put (ABX130622P00018000)
-OPR
0.07 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.02(40.00%) Jun 18

ABX closed at $18.90 yesterday.
  • #695
  • Jun 19, 2013 5:44am Jun 19, 2013 5:44am
T.F. if your still in your trade with IAU and if price gets anywhere near $13, consider closing it as there may bounce after it at 12.92
  • #696
  • Jun 19, 2013 5:58am Jun 19, 2013 5:58am
This is a little risky thats why i'm stting a paremeter of 7c to buy VXX $19 put. If I can't get it for that price today before FOMC I won't purchase.
It closed for 10c yesterday

VXX Jun 2013 19.000 put (VXX130622P00019000)
-OPR
0.10 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.01(11.11%) Jun 18
  • #697
  • Jun 19, 2013 10:23am Jun 19, 2013 10:23am
Quoting Cecil Gee
This is a little risky thats why i'm stting a paremeter of 7c to buy VXX $19 put. If I can't get it for that price today before FOMC I won't purchase. It closed for 10c yesterday VXX Jun 2013 19.000 put (VXX130622P00019000) -OPR 0.10 {image} 0.01(11.11%) Jun 18
Watching this - not sure you got what you wanted for the $19.00, $18.50 w put now $0.06
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #698
  • Edited 3:08pm Jun 19, 2013 2:29pm | Edited 3:08pm
OK, Cecil. I'm in the Jun 22 VXX $19 puts for $0.14.

...based on the assumption markets rebound tomorrow...

shoulda waited, coulda got in for $0.11 at the very end, or better yet, missed getting filled....well, we'll see....beer money...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #699
  • Jun 19, 2013 7:58pm Jun 19, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
This is a little risky thats why i'm stting a paremeter of 7c to buy VXX $19 put. If I can't get it for that price today before FOMC I won't purchase. It closed for 10c yesterday VXX Jun 2013 19.000 put (VXX130622P00019000) -OPR 0.10 {image} 0.01(11.11%) Jun 18

I got in at the open as it opened for 6c and I CLOSED FOR 26C, it went as high as 36c before closing the day at 9c
highlighted the days range for the 19$ put, this made MY losses for last week and still have ABX put running at a nice profit

VXX Jun 2013 19.000 put (VXX130622P00019000)
-OPR
0.09 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.01(10.00%) 4:14PM EDT


Prev Close:
0.10
Open:
0.06
Bid:
0.09
Ask:
0.10
Strike:
19.00
Expire Date:
22-Jun-13
Day's Range:

0.06 - 0.36
Contract Range:
N/A - N/A
Volume:
48,630
Open Interest:
60,976
  • #700
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:03pm Jun 19, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Been looking at GLD for a put option to play but IV is high thus creating expensive options due to FOMC so been looking around for a alternative option to play where the IV isn't as high. Found BARRICK GOLD, although different in business fundamentals if the put comes to fruition after the FOMC this may be a better option to play, so i'll be looking to play the $18 put for 7c or under only if its negative for GOLD ABX Jun 2013 18.000 put (ABX130622P00018000) -OPR 0.07 {image} 0.02(40.00%) Jun 18 ABX...
Still in this, I did buy for 7c and the $18 put closed for 26c, i'm hoping for a little more before I close out.
ABX CLOSED at $18.01

ABX Jun 2013 18.000 put (ABX130622P00018000)
-OPR
0.26 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.19(271.43%) 3:59PM EDT
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