EUR/USD Shifts from a Rising Channel to a Triangle | Forex Factory

  • EUR/USD Shifts from a Rising Channel to a Triangle

    From fxtimes.com

    Channel: The EUR/USD is coming off a bullish week where the pair rallied in a rising channel as seen in the 1H chart. After going above 70, the 1H RSI reading held above 40, showing intact bullish momentum in this time-frame. The momentum has now cooled off, but is not bearish yet. Triangle: Since failing to make a new high and staying above the previous session low on Friday, EUR/USD has began trading in a triangle, which has anchored out of the rising channel, not as a reversal breakout, but simply a breakout that reflects a bullish market neutralized. Breakout scenarios: A break above 1.3390 could be a sign of ... (full story)

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Bakker
Jun 17, 2013 7:29am
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Quoting Rap Skallion
This triangle is there, You can draw it , I can draw it without effort. it is a pattern of group behavior that has repeated itself many times in many places. What usually follows is called a false breakout followed by a real one. But watch out , let the pattern develop a while until you see the direction of the trend. Then if you agree with the trend, get in and make money. Just be aware that now is one of those times in which the market is getting ready to do something, as opposed to those long stretches of time where nothing appears to happen....
This is what I call good insight!!
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Ill-b-back
Jun 17, 2013 5:41am
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Quoting Spreadbetter
I'd strongly disagree, whilst not the worst analysis out there it rates high on the obvious scale and zero on predictive 'powers' which is not surprising given none of us can predict with any long term regularity.

I'm always amused by how tech article writers scramble for a foothold when the market moves, due to fundamentals as is always the issue.

All you can gauge from charts is sentiment and that measurement of sentiment is as old as candle sticks.
Your sentiment was my point it seems.
It provides chart analysis with area and price levels to watch (I assume based on price action).
Zero predictive powers and more importantly assumptions is why I like their tech analysis.
I'd rather look at a chart and some reasoning as to what to look for than listen to Merrill or Goldman tell me to hold my longs and buy the dips as the market starts to retreat from resistance. Especially since in my 2 years here I have not witnessed a single bank prophesy become reality.
Granted I have not seen all that are published but significant none the less.
What was your point exactly?
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Ill-b-back
Jun 17, 2013 6:01am
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Quoting Indrek
I have nothing specific to say about Fxtimes. Have not followed them nor any other site systematically. However good an analysis is, it is always wise to ignore it in trading and to focus on charts only.
I'd agree, in fact I very rarely trade the Euro.
Charts are what fx times seem to use in there analysis regularly, quite the novelty in this section of FF strangely enough.
I don't often/ever personally trade according to others published outlook but thought it was worth passing a positive comment on what I thought was a decent outlook considering so much inaccurate rubbish is published in here.
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Indrek
Jun 17, 2013 4:51am
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Stop loss is nowadays being hunted by robots. They are capable of reading not only traders' sentiment data but also news. Besides, big players always have much inside information, so their robots work fast and efficiently. There is no fair play in Forex. Never.
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Indrek
Jun 17, 2013 5:08am
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Most pages that publish technical analysis' articles are directly run or financially supported by Forex brokers/market makers. Would be really weird to think that they publish the best advice they can to make us all rich and themselves poor
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Indrek
Jun 17, 2013 5:52am
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Quoting Bakker
Fxtimes is the best around. These guys know what to look for. Real experts in their field.
I have nothing specific to say about Fxtimes. Have not followed them nor any other site systematically. However good an analysis is, it is always wise to ignore it in trading and to focus on charts only.
Reply
Rap Skallion
Jun 17, 2013 5:57am
Permalink
This triangle is there, You can draw it , I can draw it without effort. it is a pattern of group behavior that has repeated itself many times in many places. What usually follows is called a false breakout followed by a real one. But watch out , let the pattern develop a while until you see the direction of the trend. Then if you agree with the trend, get in and make money. Just be aware that now is one of those times in which the market is getting ready to do something, as opposed to those long stretches of time where nothing appears to happen.
Reply
cecchino
Jun 17, 2013 4:49am
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Quoting Indrek
Tehnical analysis is not relevant as long as market is 100% manipulated by sovereigns and Euro is intentionally kept up.
Totally agree with you, and a strange thing happen usually, when the weekwnd session is about to close and the CFTC comunicate that the eur long or short position have decreased or increased "casually" the trend invert immediately clear in the opposite direction of the majority of contract. "CASUALY" want big players hunt the big stop loss? Maybe....... for sure!
Reply
cecchino
Jun 17, 2013 4:56am
Permalink
Quoting Indrek
Stop loss is nowadays being hunted by robots. They are capable to read not only traders' sentiment data but also news. And big players always have much inside information, so their robots work fast and efficiently. No fair play in Forex. Never.
Yes only way to make a profit in this dirty bussiness is a quickly reaction or "squeeze" to reverse position, otherwise if you belive too much in the stop loss a trder can burn the account in a single day-trading.
Reply
Bakker
Jun 17, 2013 5:26am
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Fxtimes is the best around. These guys know what to look for. Real experts in their field.
Reply
Bakker
Jun 17, 2013 7:36am
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Euro very nervous. A break down after close of hour, could sent it straight down. Approaching daily pivot now.
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Ill-b-back
Jun 16, 2013 9:05pm
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Yet another realistic unbiased Euro analysis from FX times



Throw the rest of the "sure thing" trading signals from other publishers in the dustbin.

Or use for toilet paper...
Reply
Rap Skallion
Jun 17, 2013 3:54am
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Come on down!
Reply
Indrek
Jun 17, 2013 4:36am — Edited
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Tehnical analysis is not relevant as long as market is 100% manipulated by sovereigns and Euro is intentionally being kept up.
Reply
Spreadbetter
Jun 17, 2013 4:41am
Permalink
I'd strongly disagree, whilst not the worst analysis out there it rates high on the obvious scale and zero on predictive 'powers' which is not surprising given none of us can predict with any long term regularity.

I'm always amused by how tech article writers scramble for a foothold when the market moves, due to fundamentals as is always the issue.

All you can gauge from charts is sentiment and that measurement of sentiment is as old as candle sticks.

Quoting Ill-b-back
Yet another realistic unbiased Euro analysis from FX times



Throw the rest of the "sure thing" trading signals from other publishers in the dustbin.

Or use for toilet paper...
Reply
Spreadbetter
Jun 17, 2013 5:13am
Permalink
Fridays COT report illustrated the biggest two week advance in euro bullish sentiment on record.

Quoting cecchino
Totally agree with you, and a strange thing happen usually, when the weekwnd session is about to close and the CFTC comunicate that the eur long or short position have decreased or increased "casually" the trend invert immediately clear in the opposite direction of the majority of contract. "CASUALY" want big players hunt the big stop loss? Maybe....... for sure!
Reply
Loadedgun
Jun 17, 2013 5:17am
Permalink
Quoting Indrek
Most pages that publish technical analysis' articles are directly run or financially supported by Forex brokers/market makers. Would be really weird to think that they publish the best advice they can to make us all rich and themselves poor
I might be wrong but Fan seems a regular guy with a passion for what he does - he is a certified technician and unlikely (in my opinion) to have more than the expression of ability on his mind. To my mind this site is clean and probably the most lucid technical site on display. Mind you I subscribe neither to technical or fundamental analysis having discovered the utility of chaotic analysis - however having gone through the mill at least I know a thing or two about how these trite disciplines work. Just my 2cents. Cheers
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Oj_Jakarta
Jun 16, 2013 10:30pm
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I also set up a triangle on h1 timeframe and exit buy.
so I'd better wait for breakout
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Trader#A5E1
Jun 17, 2013 6:09am
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I can't post a picture here - which would save a thousand words ! But if you draw the channel differently - from the high of 06/06 to the high of 13/06 then draw a parallel line from the low of the breakout on the 06/06 @ 1.3090 or thereabouts and add fibs between these two lines you will find a very convincing argument for going long from 1.3325 with stops below 1.3312 (the lower trend line of your triangle) or; if the trade fails, wait for a pullback to the 1.3325 area and go short with stops above 1.3340 (the upper trend line of your triangle).
This sounds more like "A PLAN" rather than stating the obvious "scenario" and proves that you can draw lines any where on a chart and create a "tradable pattern"!
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