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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,001
  • Jun 14, 2013 9:27am Jun 14, 2013 9:27am
Quoting zenseven
{quote} Tubguy, You know I was caught yesterday with my position it is already more then 1 day fighting More over I understood well that I did 2 wrong things: 1. I did not respect my trading rules and entered till the Miss Market get naked herself 2. I did not just gave up 4 scouts bcz I understood that the Miss Market is going my way. I was right, you know, but my little daughter was to be taken from her KinderGarten. So i left my positions unattented, and I wish I could close while I took her from kindergarten, but.... So I'm still fighting......
Hope your squared now.

I have done that myself and paid for it. I try to keep my trades for a short time and only begin a trade sequence when i am sure I can finish.
That doesn't always happen but I try. Extended battles are no fun.
  • #41,002
  • Jun 14, 2013 9:29am Jun 14, 2013 9:29am
Quoting phil13
This comes from 2 maths teachers with a combined total of 70 yrs. experience. It has an indisputablemathematical logic. This is a strictly mathematical viewpoint and it goes like this: What Makes 100% ? What does it mean to give MORE than 100%? Ever wonder about those people who say they are giving more than 100%? We have all been to those meetings where someone wants you to give over 100%. How about achieving 103%? What makes up 100% in life? Here's a little mathematical formula that might help you answer these questions: If: A B C D E F G H I...
Love this! Good to see you around my friend. Give me an update when you can.
  • #41,003
  • Jun 14, 2013 9:52am Jun 14, 2013 9:52am
Quoting phil13
This comes from 2 maths teachers with a combined total of 70 yrs. experience. It has an indisputablemathematical logic. This is a strictly mathematical viewpoint and it goes like this: What Makes 100% ? What does it mean to give MORE than 100%? Ever wonder about those people who say they are giving more than 100%? We have all been to those meetings where someone wants you to give over 100%. How about achieving 103%? What makes up 100% in life? Here's a little mathematical formula that might help you answer these questions: If: A B C D E F G H I...


Anyone thought about guessing at this line....

How about achieving 103%?

.
.
.
.
.

B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T
2+21+12+12+19+8+9+20 = 103%

So, one can conclude with mathematical
certainty, that while Hard workand
Knowledgewill get you close, and Attitude
will get you there.

Its the Bullshit that will put you over the top.


@tubguy

will do after tuesday.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,004
  • Jun 14, 2013 10:38am Jun 14, 2013 10:38am
Quoting phil13
This comes from 2 maths teachers with a combined total of 70 yrs. experience. It has an indisputablemathematical logic. This is a strictly mathematical viewpoint and it goes like this: What Makes 100% ? What does it mean to give MORE than 100%? Ever wonder about those people who say they are giving more than 100%? We have all been to those meetings where someone wants you to give over 100%. How about achieving 103%? What makes up 100% in life? Here's a little mathematical formula that might help you answer these questions: If: A B C D E F G H I...

hi phil, glad to see your post again..

but, i think i got like de javu.. it seems and i'm sure i have seen this post in this thread before...
hmm. maybe just illusion.

Regards
steady as she goes
  • #41,005
  • Jun 14, 2013 10:53am Jun 14, 2013 10:53am
Quoting frz
{quote} hi phil, glad to see your post again.. but, i think i got like de javu.. it seems and i'm sure i have seen this post in this thread before... hmm. maybe just illusion. Regards


Hi frz

someone sent this to me in an email, I do not remember seeing it in the thread, sorry if has been posted here already.

Regards

phil
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,006
  • Jun 14, 2013 11:17am Jun 14, 2013 11:17am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Thanks for your reply Acs. {quote} No I don't think that my skew is to aggresive because I adjust it according to the amount of risk I feel is acceptable for that particular trade. I rarely have more than 5-20 pips I am willing to allow against me before I kill the scout. My skew while doing what I did was rarely more than 1,1. When I placed my scout I would already have a price chosen that told me I was wrong and would enter my second soldier very near that level. If price passed it then I killed both. I lost my ass by not following what...
Your initial scout must be huge compared to your account size if you are only doing 1, 1 progressions and your account balance is going up and down by over 2000% in a matter of weeks!
  • #41,007
  • Jun 14, 2013 11:47am Jun 14, 2013 11:47am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Your initial scout must be huge compared to your account size if you are only doing 1, 1 progressions and your account balance is going up and down by over 2000% in a matter of weeks!
Not really, I just increase it as the account grows. I also choose where I enter my scout very carefully.

I just took a trade a bit ago on E/U. Sold at 1.3344 and took profit at 1.3322. just a scout worth $0.50 per pip. Made $10. My mental place to kill the scout was 1.3356.

I knew that if it went past 1.3356 that it was likely to go higher. I had no desire to get into a weekend held trade. Also I had intentions of hitting with another skew but

decided against it because it was fri.
  • #41,008
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:07pm Jun 14, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi frz someone sent this to me in an email, I do not remember seeing it in the thread, sorry if has been posted here already. Regards phil
it's just my illusion.
sorry have interrupted your rest.

have a good weekend phil.
steady as she goes
  • #41,009
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:38pm Jun 14, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Not really, I just increase it as the account grows. I also choose where I enter my scout very carefully. I just took a trade a bit ago on E/U. Sold at 1.3344 and took profit at 1.3322. just a scout worth $0.50 per pip. Made $10. My mental place to kill the scout was 1.3356. I knew that if it went past 1.3356 that it was likely to go higher. I had no desire to get into a weekend held trade. Also I had intentions of hitting with another skew but decided against it because it was fri.
$0.50 a pip would be my maximum expoure with my account size at $1000. My base scout position is 0.02$ a pip.

The thing you have to look at it is you trading sustainable??

With the returns you are talking about, you will be the richest man on the planet in under a year starting with your $19.

Think about it.....
  • #41,010
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:42pm Jun 14, 2013 12:42pm
Do you guys stick to your progression rigidly? When I see a move like in usd/jpy just now, 40 pip in 5m (i suppose is wave 1), I would implement half my skew (sometimes more depending on speed and length of wick) on wave 2. slightly risky but has been netting me pretty good profits so far.

Unrelated note, how will this affect the FX market?


FX Rates Said to Face Global Regulation in Libor Review



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...or-review.html
  • #41,011
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:48pm Jun 14, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting WootWoot
Do you guys stick to your progression rigidly? When I see a move like in usd/jpy just now, 40 pip in 5m (i suppose is wave 1), I would implement half my skew (sometimes more depending on speed and length of wick) on wave 2. slightly risky but has been netting me pretty good profits so far. Unrelated note, how will this affect the FX market? FX Rates Said to Face Global Regulation in Libor Review http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...or-review.html
The aim is the manage your risk. So you adjust your skew accordingly. So you do not have to stick to one progression rigidly. many factors come into play, the terrain you are dealing with, the speed of the move, the foreign capital you have to play with, the time window you have to trade etc.

You are constantly adjusting your exposure and so your risk to stay aligned with the move.
  • #41,012
  • Jun 14, 2013 1:31pm Jun 14, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} $0.50 a pip would be my maximum expoure with my account size at $1000. My base scout position is 0.02$ a pip. The thing you have to look at it is you trading sustainable?? With the returns you are talking about, you will be the richest man on the planet in under a year starting with your $19. Think about it.....
I'm a bit more wild west I guess. It's just the cowboy in me. My problem was me and the mindset.

The week before I would have calmly flipped into the trend without any hesitation.

Quote
you will be the richest man on the planet in under a year

Why not?
  • #41,013
  • Jun 14, 2013 2:52pm Jun 14, 2013 2:52pm
Quote
Why not?

Haha i like the optimism. is good to dream big.!

Quote
My problem was me and the mindset.

The most important thing for all of us to learn from our mistakes and experiences so that we can improve. Its when we really make the mistakes that we learn the most i think. When everything is going great we often over look things.
  • #41,014
  • Jun 14, 2013 9:21pm Jun 14, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} Haha i like the optimism. is good to dream big.! {quote} The most important thing for all of us to learn from our mistakes and experiences so that we can improve. Its when we really make the mistakes that we learn the most i think. When everything is going great we often over look things.
Optimism is pretty much all I have left. It's go big or co home in my world.

I have made 6 figure twice in my life on 2 businesses. This is my last frontier so to speak. I make it or I die trying.

I have 2 boys, one goes to college next year. the other one 2years after that. I have enough to get the first one through 2-3 years. and their moma ain't done shit.

I have no choice but to make things happen. I did twice. I think (know) I can again.

This is my chosen business. I will not fail or I will die trying.

Not trying to get to serious. thats just how I am.
  • #41,015
  • Edited 9:45pm Jun 14, 2013 9:24pm | Edited 9:45pm
Hello shanawhite.

Interesting thing. My ex was named shanna and our last name had white in it......?

I see you have left. Please don't think I'm being mean or ugly. Just found it interestig.

If you wish to learn to trade, stay here.
  • #41,016
  • Jun 15, 2013 4:01am Jun 15, 2013 4:01am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} {quote} Thats the idea! LOL {quote} Exactly. The only thing different is the numbers.
Lol! Guess i need to practice more on putting my thought to words.... Anyways at the end, din't stop if its working.
  • #41,017
  • Jun 15, 2013 6:08am Jun 15, 2013 6:08am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Optimism is pretty much all I have left. It's go big or co home in my world. I have made 6 figure twice in my life on 2 businesses. This is my last frontier so to speak. I make it or I die trying. I have 2 boys, one goes to college next year. the other one 2years after that. I have enough to get the first one through 2-3 years. and their moma ain't done shit. I have no choice but to make things happen. I did twice. I think (know) I can again. This is my chosen business. I will not fail or I will die trying. Not trying to get to serious....
Hello TubGuy and Friends
This post of TubGuy made me remember a post of FTI long time ago. I think it is must read for everyone ones in a while.Its about bringing succsess in life into trading.
The whole post is in here-LINK-here just a small quote of FTI :
"
Many traders harbours this self-destructive machanism, in their sub contious .
even lots of dealers. It's an urge, thingy, something that you cannot scratch.

The fact that most traders are successful in life, otherwise they wouldn't have the capital to trade, works against them. Because they would throough their suceesses have developed a kind of confidence about themselves. When this confidence is carried into positions in markets, it tend to work to their detriment , esp when the view is errorneous. But not unlike W Buffet, it can also work in their favour, the prerequisite is close to unlimited cpitalisation.
"
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #41,018
  • Jun 15, 2013 7:44am Jun 15, 2013 7:44am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} Hello TubGuy and Friends This post of TubGuy made me remember a post of FTI long time ago. I think it is must read for everyone ones in a while.Its about bringing succsess in life into trading. The whole post is in here-LINK-here just a small quote of FTI : " Many traders harbours this self-destructive machanism, in their sub contious . even lots of dealers. It's an urge, thingy, something that you cannot scratch. The fact that most traders are successful in life,...

Very good connection. I sometimes wonder if that may not be my real egor. Thanks for bringing it up.
  • #41,019
  • Jun 15, 2013 2:33pm Jun 15, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting WootWoot
Do you guys stick to your progression rigidly? When I see a move like in usd/jpy just now, 40 pip in 5m (i suppose is wave 1), I would implement half my skew (sometimes more depending on speed and length of wick) on wave 2. slightly risky but has been netting me pretty good profits so far. Unrelated note, how will this affect the FX market? FX Rates Said to Face Global Regulation in Libor Review http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...or-review.html
Hello WootWoot
To your question . I think the word "rigidity" is one of the common words in this Thread of course after words like MO,MM,nimble.
It is forbidden to be rigid in this thread. Easy say but hard to follow.
Like FTI said "Remember rigidity kills." Link to Post
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #41,020
  • Jun 15, 2013 2:34pm Jun 15, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Very good connection. I sometimes wonder if that may not be my real egor. Thanks for bringing it up.
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
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