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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #5,761
  • Jun 13, 2013 1:58am Jun 13, 2013 1:58am
Quoting Lou
Just wondering if anyone caught Sam Seiden's latest Webinar on Forex Street ? It is archived there. Here is why I am asking. Did you hear him say?: If you trade the 3 or 2 mn chart and price is returning to a good, fresh level : 1. It doesn't matter what the larger TF trend is. 2. Don't worry about 1/3 risk/return. Go ahead with a 1 to 2 or even 1 to 1.5 RR. Because if the level is fresh and other Odds Enhancers are in play, ie. fast move away, fast return to the level for instance, his confidence in the method is very high. He will take the trade....
Hi Lou,
Could you post the link for this sam's webinar?
Regards
  • #5,762
  • Jun 13, 2013 5:12am Jun 13, 2013 5:12am
I've created a small 25 minutes video on How to Draw Supply and demand Levels. It's a very mechanical and robotic way of drawing the levels the same way over and over and over.

I've read some posts from other traders asking how to draw a level, why to use the closes or the highs, etc. I guess this video might solve all of those doubts. Hopefully you will not have any more doubts as to how to draw them in a mechanical and consistent way.

IMPORTANT: you will see SD levels everywhere. Most will not work, you need to have rules to filter them out. We'll cover them one by one in the next videos, like going with the trend, using speedbumps (continuation patterns) with trending markets, using original and fresh levels, selling high in the D1/WK curve and buying low in the D1/WK curve, etc.

Enjoy it together with my sexy voice
Alfonso

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,763
  • Jun 13, 2013 6:36am Jun 13, 2013 6:36am
Quoting mosah
{quote} Hi Lou, Could you post the link for this sam's webinar? Regards
I thinks it's this one
http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...a-84c4dd8756d2
MT
  • #5,764
  • Jun 13, 2013 7:47am Jun 13, 2013 7:47am
Quoting arjfca
{quote} I thinks it's this one http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...a-84c4dd8756d2 MT
That is the link.
  • #5,765
  • Jun 13, 2013 7:53am Jun 13, 2013 7:53am
Trader in SD said

Getting back to direction:: The Pattern w/in a Pattern really helps me with direction.

Trader in SD could you please point to a past post or make a new one that illustrates your point ?

Thank you.
  • #5,766
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:10am Jun 13, 2013 9:10am
Hello Lou,

I guess TradeInSD is referring to nested patterns or supply/demand areas, that is, if I have a D1 supply area which is 100 pips (too wide and big risk) and within that D1 supply area I have a nice fresh H4/H1 area 30 pips wide, that is a lower timeframe area within a bigger timeframe supply area. We've reduced our risk, we're high in the D1 curve, we'd be selling high. IF the D1 timeframe is in a downtrend, then we'd have a momentum trade located on a H4/H1 supply supply right within the D1 supply zone, a pattern or zone within a zone. I guess that's what he's referring to.

That H4 supply if hit by price might probably get the pair back in the higher timeframe direction.

Take a look at my screenshot, I guess it's that what he meant or what you are referring to.
Alfonso

Quoting Lou
Trader in SD said Getting back to direction:: The Pattern w/in a Pattern really helps me with direction. Trader in SD could you please point to a past post or make a new one that illustrates your point ? Thank you.
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,767
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:53am Jun 13, 2013 9:53am
Quoting Lou
Trader in SD said Getting back to direction:: The Pattern w/in a Pattern really helps me with direction. Trader in SD could you please point to a past post or make a new one that illustrates your point ? Thank you.

Will be happy to . I just did a trade that will illustrate what I am referring to. I will post later this evening 6/13/2013

TSD
  • #5,768
  • Jun 13, 2013 2:33pm Jun 13, 2013 2:33pm
I've recorded a 45m video for those interested, this time is about a very very important matter. I'm a swing trader mostly, so I will not use M15 or lower timeframes to look for levels to trade or where exactly the decision was made to break a level and so on. But the same applies to lower timeframes since price is fractal.

The video decribes in detail:

1. The 2 types of supply and demand levels
2. Detailed definition and examples of fresh levels and original (authentic) levels
3. When and how to use fresh and original levels, and when not to use them
4. What is a good base, how continuation patterns (speedbumps) look like, number of candles that are best and what patterns to avoid on the basings

We have 2 types of levels:

1. Valleys and Peaks. Rally-Base-Drop / Drop-Base-Rally. Turning points. Best at extremes
2. Speedbumps. Rally-Base-Rally / Drop-Base-Drop. Continuation patterns, best with trending markets

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,769
  • Jun 14, 2013 10:46pm Jun 14, 2013 10:46pm
Excelent work Alfonso!!, thanks for that great help, keep like that
  • #5,770
  • Jun 16, 2013 11:31pm Jun 16, 2013 11:31pm
Quoting Lou
Trader in SD said Getting back to direction:: The Pattern w/in a Pattern really helps me with direction. Trader in SD could you please point to a past post or make a new one that illustrates your point ? Thank you.



HI Lou.. Sorry for the delay

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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So here we got short on the 30M.. So this is the 1st pattern.

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Just a closer look and exit @ TP.

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4HR view. Trend is down

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Price is heading toward a Daily Demand level. Look at the pattern on the Daily R-B-D..We traded the Drop side of the pattern heading back into the Demand on the larger TF..The pattern 30M with in the Pattern Daily. This is what I call a Magnet trade as Larger TF's can act like a magnet, price being drawn to them.

So I look for the Pattern within the Pattern and trade in the direction of the Magnet ( price is being pulled like a magnet to the Daily / larger TF ).

The higher probability trades tend to happen in the Drop phase of a Rise-Base-Drop and the Rise phase in the Drop-Base-Rise pattern. You are looking for the Pattern w/in the Pattern to be distinctive. You can also trade out of the Base of either direction ( Rise or Drop ) but I would recommend caution and trade from only the extreme ( much like trading range ) Looking for a Supply or Demand level to set up at the extreme, away from the direction you are trading to. Always looking at the larger TF for the Dominant pattern.

I will trade the Gap ( I call these trades SD Gap trades ) Simply looking for the same set up only now we have a Gap.. I am of the opinion that there is a high probability for price to close the Gap.. The probability goes up when they fall within the Pattern w/in the Pattern structure.

Its about Probabilities and not Absolutes.

Hope this helps

TSD
  • #5,771
  • Jun 17, 2013 9:57am Jun 17, 2013 9:57am
M1 scalp, beauty of Supply and Demand, it works on any TF
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  • #5,772
  • Jun 17, 2013 10:13am Jun 17, 2013 10:13am
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} HI Lou.. Sorry for the delay {image} So here we got short on the 30M.. So this is the 1st pattern. {image} Just a closer look and exit @ TP. {image} 4HR view. Trend is down {image} Price is heading toward a Daily Demand level. Look at the pattern on the Daily R-B-D..We traded the Drop side of the pattern heading back into the Demand on the larger TF..The pattern 30M with in the Pattern Daily. This is what I call a Magnet trade as Larger TF's can act like a magnet, price being drawn to them. So I look for the Pattern within the Pattern and...
I will be looking at this more closely.
I appreciate the attention and time you spent in presenting the charts and your analysis.
Thank you for answering my question.

Lou
  • #5,773
  • Jun 17, 2013 11:00am Jun 17, 2013 11:00am
Quoting Lou
{quote} I will be looking at this more closely. I appreciate the attention and time you spent in presenting the charts and your analysis. Thank you for answering my question. Lou

Your welcome..

I finished a trade on the JPY last might that will illustrate the Patterns w/in Patterns but with a slightly different twist. We are just adding an extra opportunity/set up. I will post ASAP.


TSD
  • #5,774
  • Jun 17, 2013 10:30pm Jun 17, 2013 10:30pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Larger view of the Pattern w/in the Pattern 5M. We basically looking to get long trading into the Supply Level overhead. Second, why take the trade here vs waiting for price to possibly roll back down to a lower extreme as I had previously mentioned. Here presents a different opportunity ALA KL swap levels. Now this is not exactly a pure Swap level but concept is the same. We are looking for a level that may have confluence to get long. The blue/turquoise line cuts right through a Demand Level on the 5M. Looking at the chart one could see there might be multiple levels to pick from..This particular level, IMHO, presents the best opportunity. So we waited for price to respond ( small developing PIN ) that just missed the text book level. You can also see a Rise-Base-Rise pattern the creates this level.

As you can see the entry was a tad late but still within risk tolerance given our TP. There are those who concern themselves way too much with exact entries. While having a good entry is good, the more important part is the risk profile you establish when you enter. Is the risk appropriate for the trade? Is the risk appropriate for your equity? These last two take center stage to having an exact entry. You will notice some of my previous trades do not have the best entry..It is the risk I am concerned about. Is there confluence to the level I am taking. Is price action giving opportunity? You will also notice that when trading the very small TF price not do exactly achieve the text book set up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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5M close up view

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Price is moving in our direction.

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Price breaking an S/R level.. Moved stop to just above entry.

More to follow

TSD
  • #5,775
  • Jun 17, 2013 10:48pm Jun 17, 2013 10:48pm
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Price climbing out nicely. Moved SL up a bit.

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Price breaking another S/R level as we move north. Moved stop up to a swing low.

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We took our exit on this upthrust candle on volume. Yes there are those who would say why not wait. At these levels price can turn back pretty strong IMHO. And .. we were not that far away from the original TP so we took profit.

Total pipage for the 2 lot .. 60 plus

TSD
  • #5,776
  • Jun 17, 2013 10:53pm Jun 17, 2013 10:53pm
Quoting TraderinSD
{image} Price climbing out nicely. Moved SL up a bit. {image} Price breaking another S/R level as we move north. Moved stop up to a swing low. {image} We took our exit on this upthrust candle on volume. Yes there are those who would say why not wait. At these levels price can turn back pretty strong IMHO. And .. we were not that far away from the original TP so we took profit. Total pipage for the 2 lot .. 60 plus TSD
Pretty risky trade, trading in the middle of the range, but you had your reasons for trade, and well planned at that. Great trade!
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #5,777
  • Jun 17, 2013 11:11pm Jun 17, 2013 11:11pm
Quoting keroro0o0o
{quote} Pretty risky trade, trading in the middle of the range, but you had your reasons for trade, and well planned at that. Great trade!

Yes and no...The beauty of trading S/D's is you can trade both trending and range markets effectively. You'll be hard pressed to find another method that allows for this.

Touching on the previous comments about trading ( what I call SD Magnet Trades.. This was a Magnet trade with a slight twist ) Price tends to be pulled back toward these levels. All that we are looking for is the right SD set up. Confluence and Odds Enhancers can make the difference here.

I had previously mentioned that trading range one would want ideally to trade the extremes with an SD level setup.. The only exception ( for me ) is the Swap Level trade. Again this is not text book KL Swap but the concept is the same. They can happen in the middle of the range.. I am always looking left to see what price has done with on SD level. I will also use S/R levels as confluence.. Basically looking to stack the odds in my favor.

KL has mentioned is the past, we all trade this method a bit differently.. I guess I would be a good example of that.

TSD
  • #5,778
  • Jun 18, 2013 2:31am Jun 18, 2013 2:31am
chart
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,779
  • Jun 18, 2013 2:35am Jun 18, 2013 2:35am
and here is another view of that .... http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1371533662
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,780
  • Jun 18, 2013 2:37am Jun 18, 2013 2:37am
Maybe i should have done it like this ... Don't want to make the fox mad.... LOL http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post6759390
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
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