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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,481
  • Jun 10, 2013 5:04am Jun 10, 2013 5:04am
Quoting GeoTrade
{quote} This is someting I've been trying to understand also. Does anyone know if there any way to get reliable wholistic volume data on FX pairs?
Google this article: "Are price updates a good proxy for actual traded volume in FX?"
  • #24,482
  • Jun 10, 2013 6:04am Jun 10, 2013 6:04am
Nice, thank you.
  • #24,483
  • Jun 10, 2013 6:28am Jun 10, 2013 6:28am
Thanks Hummel!!
  • #24,484
  • Jun 10, 2013 10:22am Jun 10, 2013 10:22am
Quoting Hummel
{quote} Something strange. 6E Futures daily chart - for comparison only. Volume on Friday is not very high. (my datafeed - mirus futures) {image}
I've noticed a difference too on my futures charts. Also Mirus Futures CQG feed. So what will be the interpretation for the futures chart? No selling pressure?
  • #24,485
  • Jun 10, 2013 10:47am Jun 10, 2013 10:47am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Follow up to these planned trades posted last evening. Not going to take up room with charts but you can go back and look at the charts posted... EJ - Entry 129.584, SL 131.394, TP 1 - 127.774 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 1:1 SL at original but may cut risk in half by moving to 50% line - undecided UJ - Entry 99.957, SL 100.453, TP 1 - 97.461 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 2:2 and now at BE GJ - Entry 152.264, SL 153.792, TP 1 - 150.736 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 1:1 SL at original but may cut risk in half by moving to 50% line - undecided GC - Entry 1.44687,...
Follow up to the follow up... So Friday was a bad day for most of my Daily TF trades. I decided to stick to my plan and let the trades run their course with no intervention by me that is outside my planned management for these trades.

EJ - Entry 129.584, SL 131.394, TP 1 - 127.774 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 1:1 SL at original but may cut risk in half by moving to 50% line - undecided - TP 2 was set to move to BE at 2:1 which happened on Friday, SL hit at BE today. 1 win for 1:1, 1 BE.

UJ - Entry 99.957, SL 100.453, TP 1 - 97.461 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 2:2 and now at BE - TP 2 Friday we dipped towards 3:1 which would have locked me into 1:1 but that did not hit, SL hit at BE today. 1 win for 1:1, 1 BE.

GJ - Entry 152.264, SL 153.792, TP 1 - 150.736 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 1:1 SL at original but may cut risk in half by moving to 50% line - undecided - TP 2 Friday we hit 2:1 which moved me to BE and we dipped towards 3:1 which would have locked me into 1:1 but that did not hit, SL hit at BE today. 1 win for 1:1, 1 BE.

GC - Entry 1.44687, SL 1.45791, TP 1 - 1.43583 open, TP 2 - open --- trade still at full risk - Did not make it to 1:1 so both trades hit SL today, 2 losers for 1:1.

GOLD - This trade was tweaked after I posted as I was not comfortable with the entry nor the SL set-up... Entry was dropped to 1388.71 at the low of the June 23rd NBP, SL set at 1423.70, TP 1 - 1388.71, TP 2 - open --- trade NOT triggered but today was an effort to rise closing again below that UHVWRB daily 50% (white fib on the chart) so I am leaving the pending set. Trade triggered on Friday, still alive at full risk today.

Some new set-ups forming so I will check again tonight.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,486
  • Jun 11, 2013 6:24am Jun 11, 2013 6:24am
Well I hope all of you were ready and waiting for shorts today accross the board (well other than that painfully slow ranging EU)... Daily charts screamed weakness after most charts I watch printed either ND's or NBP's some of which on the lowest daily volume in over a week (and more in some cases).

I was taken out of all but one of my previous daily TF trades but was given some beautiful set-ups to get back into the market short on the same pairs plus some others, original GOLD trades are still running.

I am seriously considering dropping EU from my trade list!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,487
  • Jun 11, 2013 9:07am Jun 11, 2013 9:07am
Started out trying to post an initial 5 min EU long I took but got busy at work and then a second entry printed which I took and eventually snapped the chart... by the time I emailed from home to work so I could post the chart tragets were hit so this is all in hindsight.

Chart - EU longs. Entry 1 was the effort to fall closing back above a key S&R fib level from my hourly chart, Entry 2 was a test in a supported / rising market. Targets for both trades was the 3266-3270 fib levels shown.

All trades were intraday scalps using fib levels as fixed targets and no trailing SL.

Sorry for the delay...

Looks like the buyers might be taking control of the 3266-3270 region...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 32 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,488
  • Jun 11, 2013 9:38am Jun 11, 2013 9:38am
Quoting pres78
Looks like the buyers might be taking control of the 3266-3270 region...
Well they definately did as they took price back up to another key S&R shared fib zone level 3302-3305 (1hr levels) but we have found some definate supply. Enough to short or were SM just closing a few longs for profit...

Might look to short back down to 3270ish zone... Possible 5min ND forming... Possible...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,489
  • Jun 11, 2013 9:55am Jun 11, 2013 9:55am
Quoting pres78
EU Possible 5min ND forming... Possible...
Closed as a downbar ND or an upside down test as I like to call them. Took a quick short back down to previously noted S&R level and now contiplating a long back up... flat right now watching PA coming into this hourly bars close...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,490
  • Jun 11, 2013 11:14am Jun 11, 2013 11:14am
Price has been hanging around that 3266-3270 level noted peviously and are working on what could be a test/NS into said demand pocket... may go long waiting for the current 15min bar close.

Just flipped back down and two bars ago was a 5min NS so I have set a pending at 3280 looking for a return to the 3300 zone... London is gone though so who knows if this will go anywhere.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,491
  • Edited Jun 12, 2013 4:40am Jun 11, 2013 5:42pm | Edited Jun 12, 2013 4:40am
EU Daily - Just Thinking Out Loud

Today's Daily bar on EU looks as though SM are serious about higher prices and plan to take out this long standing S&R zone. You can see how they used the news on Thursday to create that crazy WRUB on UHV now this bar closed off it's high into a zone that recently has shown nothing but supply so we should sell right?

Waiting for reaction to volume and climatic bars is very much key... well it is to me anyway.

Then comes Friday and NFP and what do we get sellers right? Downbar...

What does the bar look like? Downbar but we have upper and lower wicks and we closed well off the low above 3200 on even higher volume and a reduced spread... increased volume, decreased spread = effort and what appears to be SM marking down prices to buy lower perhaps. Then comes Monday (well Sunday night) the market opened with a GAP down right into that 3200 level before closing as an upbar. Yes by comparsion the bar was a NBP but we made a LL (good) and closed above 50% of the effort bar on lower volume but still at or above average volume = a pres78 2BR. Based on this last night I set a pending buy at the 50% level of the yellow fib shown to see if I could catch a retrace entry and then pendings at the 100% level. Both were triggered today won't go into the management of these since the entries are not pure VSA. What I loved the most was that 50% of the zone I have marked off that UHV daily bar is at 3237 (1hr VZA level) which was nice confluence to take a retrace entry into support.

Today showed lots of up and down between the 1hr zone levels that I have been showing and have had on my charts for some time now. I showed and discussed some of these very intraday trades here but when not just trading the levels and considering what SM were doing today. Take a look at my second chart which is hourly with my VZA zones / levels. We moved up first from the 3236 level after finding support there after NY open. We then move up and down between 3270 and 3300 (clearer on the 5min) before SM finally easily and quietly take out that 3300 level after London went home (sneaky bastards).

What I like the most is I can only imagine how many people went long and were stopped out on that wicked looking UT into 3300 (highest volume 1hr zone today) chasing price as it rose quickly and then on that same bar how many people shorted as it fell or even after it closed thinking for sure price was going down but instead price went back up stopping out the now new shorts.

Is it guaranteed that price is heading higher... nope but recent price action has me longer term higher TF bullish for sure. Also no straight lines in FX so retraces to buy in lower is needed if a continued push up is in the cards.

As for intraday who cares because I will just scalp the smaller swings within the bigger picture.

Edit - GU showed a similar story through it's PA however it has yet to close above the high of the Thursday WRB where as EU did today... but it did close above 5600 which was that previous swing high from April-May this year and we did put in a HL during May compared to March before this recent push up...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 32 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,492
  • Jun 12, 2013 12:38am Jun 12, 2013 12:38am
Quoting SimpleDev
Now lets zoom into a 1h, the first thing that pops out is that massive UT, also notice the spread of the previous 4 bars of the UT compared to the rest of the chart, the spreads are massive as well. That is a big sign showing us that a distribution phase is going on. The bar I marked in red, big volume narrow spread, potential buyers here which we have weekly resistance above us at 1.3333, mixed with big news of the German court ruling probably will be an excuse to hike price up to 1.3333, watch for SOW up there.
15 pips shy of 3333, really would have preferred price to pop up above and shown a rejection of it, but yesterday we did see quiet a bit of weakness.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15m.png Size: 54 KB
  • #24,493
  • Jun 12, 2013 12:41am Jun 12, 2013 12:41am
Quoting SimpleDev
Was chatting in skype with Kinsale before NFP. The USD index showed SM hand nicely today. Big volume from yesterday with potential buyers and you see prior to the news how Asia and London session respected the close of the potential buyers. No trades been off my game this week and I don't trade NFP, just sit back and watch the fireworks. {image}
Remember the 1h of the Dow Jones US dollar index I posted a few days ago?

Here is the chart today.. another bounce off the close of the massive SO.. strong dollar.. weak EU.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.png Size: 52 KB
  • #24,494
  • Jun 12, 2013 12:55am Jun 12, 2013 12:55am
Quoting pres78
I am seriously considering dropping EU from my trade list!
  • #24,495
  • Jun 12, 2013 4:02am Jun 12, 2013 4:02am
Quoting pres78
... Wrong reaction to volume and climatic bars is very much key... well it is to me anyway.
Then comes Friday and NFP and what do we get sellers right? Downbar... What does the bar look like? Downbar but we have upper and lower wicks and we closed well off the low above 3200 on even higher volume and a reduced spread... increased volume, decreased spread = effort and what appears to be SM marking down prices to buy lower perhaps.
Hi pres78,
Questions to Your chart:
Wrong reaction to volume and climatic bars - You mean no low volume bar after UHV bar?
This bar is down bar on very high volume and decreased spread - looks like a squat, so You mean after breaking out an old top on hig volume, herd is selling and SM is absorbing this supply, so the spread is decreasing? So, is this absorption?
Next bar is an up bar on lower volume - is this a test, confirming absorption?

Comparing my EOD chart (6E Mirus data feed) - there is no UHV bar on Friday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E 06-13 (Daily) 2013-03-27 - 2013-06-12.png Size: 39 KB
  • #24,496
  • Jun 12, 2013 4:42am Jun 12, 2013 4:42am
Quoting Hummel
{quote} Hi pres78, Questions to Your chart: Wrong reaction to volume and climatic bars - You mean no low volume bar after UHV bar? This bar is down bar on very high volume and decreased spread - looks like a squat, so You mean after breaking out an old top on hig volume, herd is selling and SM is absorbing this supply, so the spread is decreasing? So, is this absorption? Next bar is an up bar on lower volume - is this a test, confirming absorption? Comparing my EOD chart (6E Mirus data feed) - there is no UHV bar on Friday {image}
Fixed my post to say "Waiting for" reaction...

I think we are seeing ACC and absorption yes...

I cannot comment on the difference of what the futures chart shows as I do not follow not trade those charts only what I see on mine. Still shows the same picture though IMHO...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,497
  • Edited 5:06pm Jun 12, 2013 10:43am | Edited 5:06pm
EU I Forgive You! - The love hate story continues...

So the day after I vowed to give up EU (but yet still continue to trade it) I realized how can I stay mad when EU is just so obedient to my VZA levels... don't get me wrong EU can be one of the most frustrating, ranging pairs to trade but it does play the levels nicely as well.

See attached my 15 min chart with the same old hourly levels...

See the respect.

What I love the most is how London came to work and said nope, not buying way up here and down price went to a key level and when did it get there... well would you look at that right at New York open. Wow and people say the markets aren't manipulated. So London made some money on the way down, gave NY some good prices and together they took price back up and made a new weekly high and are now testing back down into the high of yesterday (which is the high of yesterday 1hr zone, red line) after finding some supply and rejection at the 3340 level which is is the high of a Jan 21st 1hr UHV zone... yes I said Jan 21st...

Beautiful stuff.

Nice little 15min NS / test right after NYO...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 36 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,498
  • Jun 12, 2013 11:29am Jun 12, 2013 11:29am
Quoting pres78
GOLD - This trade was tweaked after I posted as I was not comfortable with the entry nor the SL set-up... Entry was dropped to 1388.71 at the low of the June 23rd NBP, SL set at 1423.70, TP 1 - 1388.71, TP 2 - open --- trade NOT triggered but today was an effort to rise closing again below that UHVWRB daily 50% (white fib on the chart) so I am leaving the pending set.

Trade triggered on Friday, still alive at full risk today. Some new set-ups forming so I will check again tonight.
SO I decided to close out GOLD last night for small gains after that reverse UT bar on the Daily chart yesterday. This position has gone nowheres and in all honesty is against the ebb and flow all of my other Daily chart trades so I cut it loose for now.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,499
  • Jun 12, 2013 2:35pm Jun 12, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting pres78
EU I Forgive You! - The love hate story continues...


Like you see, I'm a man with many words
  • #24,500
  • Jun 13, 2013 5:58pm Jun 13, 2013 5:58pm
EU - watch the 3340 level during tommorow trading... Could be a point of interest.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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