Analysis on the euro, yen or any other currency

I hope this thread becomes a collection of well thought out analysis on any currency of a trader's choosing. Whether you trade the euro, pound, or krona, each currency and pair present potential trading opportunities each day.

With that being said, I hope this thread also is one without name calling and other daft nonsense.

Along with analysis, feel free to post your trades, systems and other trading related material.

Hey Pip, just found this. Same hopes here bro.

Hey Pip! Here's my 15 minute chart of E/A. Good luck with the thread.

Hey Pip,

My thoughts right now are as follows.

I think the appreciation in the EuroUSD (which is in correlation to that of respective bond prices movements of late) as unsustainable considering the economic outlook of both respectively and i agree with many that the US Dollar is forging a somewhat higher low right now. We might have a couple of 80 pip sweeps to clear out the weaker retail shorts before we begin to descend but for me we are in a decent area for shorts for those that use/accept a fairly large SL. I am already short at 1.31 and added again at 1.328 with no SL. These are my final plays and i have the capacity to hold them beyond 1.50. Im a firm believer in fundamentals and see the interest rate outlook and that of the ending of QE combined with a likely sell off in Equities as being strongly Dollar bullish factors over the medium and longer term.

I think back to just two weeks ago when the hysteria of tapering was in full effect and people were predicting dollar strength for the next several months. I believe the tapering will come and to limit the potential damage the FED will do this very gradually and if news between now and then stays good i even think within 2 months and at the latest in September we will at least see something.

I know most will be waiting for some confirmation of the start of the move back toward the median line before entering short and for all that is wise i will be happy with my trades exiting at or below 1.30. It will mean just 3% on acc for me but considering the market has already moved away from me twice i will be happy with that.

Good luck all,

Hey I forgot I set this up! Lol. I agree with the fundamentals, and the dollar seems to find support at the 80.08 mark near the 38% fib. This downside to the dollar could have been "seen" given the crazy negativity and willingness to assume the dollar strength must give away, but these seem to be the same people that say the rally is not Fed induced but the result of multipliers.

I do not tend to count wild up or down swings as necessary a change in sentiment but merely a type of mean reversion. The most wildest swings are those on assets that are heavily skewed one way or another, yen for instance. The BoJ conducts it's QE and sinks the yen, but remains doing the same and yen rallies. They want more, but I try to think about this. If it was enough to sink the yen why does equal QE make it rise? Trader's utility?

I read a Reuters article that said the BoJ, on a price-adjusted annualized GDP, is growth 4.1% v. US 2.4% v Europe .9% crazy.

The euro-block does not support bullish fundamentals all while Merkel wants the rest of Europe to join Germanys path to growth - all .4% of it.

By all means trade these movements and make $$, but i see strong resistance up ahead while a very likely downward - support - target of 1.313.

Feel free to post whenever. May not be popular, but hell this isn't high school lol

Just for shites and giggles...potential short crude opportunity

Going to help a friend rebuild his account with only dollar crosses. Looking to build dollar shorts. Dollar is looking a bit weak as the S&P gains 23 pts and dollar still remains down. Prob just use this thread as a journal to keep track of things

Pairs looking to trade:

EURUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
AUXUSD
USDMXN

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post7620657

A guy can always hope....no?

Markets still in very complacent mode yet and not really getting any clues as to where things might go with FEDs plans so far.

SP500 index has stalled right before its major 2000 number which is a bit surprising given the low interest rate period we still in but you can see by the intra day movements that everyone is scalping every dip they can get! As we have not had any signifcant meaniful retrace I would say since Jan begining of the year. Volatility as a whole also at historic lows which we did see a spike last week into the 14's however short.

We have rolled over on the run we had on our carry trades of AUD and NZD and hard to say really where they are going at the present time with a lot of high impact releases on the docket this week for both that should give significant direction the outlook on the price of the each currency.

EURo has been moving in a choppy fashion given the mixed fundamentals. While EURo recovery is set to pick up in the coming term, any sanctions for Russia could threaten investors to flee from the Euro.

The USD on the other hand, is showing positive data so far this quarter while FEDs primary focus has definitely been on the jobs sector. Will need a continue growth in the data for FED to continue its plan and eventual rate hike for the recovery in US. Here is a graph I made of my perception of where each country is in terms of is business cycle in relation to monetary policy and interest rates.