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Start of my journey towards profitable trading with PA

  • #621
  • Edited Jun 11, 2013 5:45am Jun 10, 2013 10:16pm | Edited Jun 11, 2013 5:45am
Quoting keroro0o0o
New PO: USDJPY Sell {image} Update: Triggered. Liking the PA. Some controversial chart reading: Bright side: {image} Dark side: {image} Update 2: So far so good, but the tentative Monetary Policy Statement & BOJ on FF calendar is worrying me, and since price missed my TP by 4 pips, SL at BE now. Yeah I'm a brat. {image} TP 1 revised to lower demand at 98.133 (not shown in screenshot above) Update 3: Well well what do we have here, a quick drop after the Monetary Policy Statement, though I didn't know what statement it was. 1st position out,...
Update: Price formed a nice and clean PPZ & possible reaction off swap zone. SL tightened to above PPZ. Gotta be willing to lose some to earn more. Let's see if the PPZ holds.
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Update 2: Done. TP 2 hit for a nice overall 4R profit. Still abit too early to close the trade, but too bad I wasn't around to manage it. still, am happy
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #622
  • Edited 7:09am Jun 11, 2013 6:06am | Edited 7:09am
New trade: EURUSD buy

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Reason for trades were based on some correlations analysis, where EURGBP were at demand, and USDX at supply, which in my opinion, EURUSD will most likely have a bounce up. Let's see.

Update: Manual closed after price responded to small supply zone. Pretty quick trade.
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Update 2: Price eventually hit my TP. LOL. Typical fear.
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #623
  • Edited 7:12am Jun 11, 2013 6:40am | Edited 7:12am
EURUSD trade at BE, risk is open for another trade.

New trade: GBPUSD sell

30mins chart:
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4H chart:
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Doesn't look good now at time of posting

Update: Stopped out. Next.
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #624
  • Edited 8:14am Jun 11, 2013 7:44am | Edited 8:14am
New trade: AUDUSD sell

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Update: Didn't get what I expected, which is perfectly fine. Traded the plan. Next!
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #625
  • Edited 10:26pm Jun 11, 2013 4:17pm | Edited 10:26pm
New PO: AUDUSD sell

30mins chart:
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Bonus 1mins chart:
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Update: Triggered and stopped out by a spike.
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Update 2: Interesting Diamond on 15mins, also a typical falsebreak/bull trap to take out my stop before turning to my target. Still training "The EYE".
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #626
  • Edited 8:40pm Jun 11, 2013 8:16pm | Edited 8:40pm
New PO: EURJPY sell

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Additional reasons for trade: 1D BEOB + 4H supply zone

Update: Cancelled the PO. Setups had worked out, not gonna like the 2nd test if it bounces back now.
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #627
  • Edited 4:45am Jun 12, 2013 3:53am | Edited 4:45am
New PO: EURUSD Sell

30mins chart:
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1D chart:
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Let's see if I can get a fill.

Update: Took off the order. Price continued down to take my first TP. Invalidated the QM setting up.
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #628
  • Edited 5:18am Jun 13, 2013 12:11am | Edited 5:18am
New PO: AUDUSD buy

Quite a messed up chart because using crappy windows snipping tool and paint to edit.
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Update: Missed my PO by the spread (0.8 pips) and took off . Cancelled the order.
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #629
  • Jun 13, 2013 6:46am Jun 13, 2013 6:46am
Patiently waiting for a setup that I'm familiar with, at the same time, watching PA play out the setup I had in mind, which is a very good practice. With time and experience, I believe I'll find the confidence to trade the setups that I'm still refining in my mind right now. Slowly, but surely getting "there".

Patience is Virtue!!
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #630
  • Jun 13, 2013 8:21am Jun 13, 2013 8:21am
Decided to cancel EURUSD PO buy right before it approached because HTF at demand, plus USDX at 1D demand. Price went exactly as anticipated.

Anyway, no complaints coz would've missed the PO by pippetes anyway.


EURUSD 30 mins chart:
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EURUSD 1D chart:
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USDX chart:
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Well, I've made it a rule that I don't trade against the higher TF's, so I'll stick with it. Plenty of that to come anyway.
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #631
  • Jun 13, 2013 3:56pm Jun 13, 2013 3:56pm
Loss trade: AUDUSD Sell

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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #632
  • Edited 5:30pm Jun 13, 2013 4:20pm | Edited 5:30pm
New trade: EURJPY sell

30mins chart:
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5mins chart:
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Update: 1st target hit. Holding towards the 2nd target with tightened SL.
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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #633
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:04am Jun 14, 2013 12:04am
Hi mate good to see your still going strong at this. I have come round to the SD stuff completely now and will start getting some charts up in here if thats still ok?

Im not trading for real yest just observing and seem to be getting the hang of it. Check out the last few posts on this thread (Im Paddymctaff) for some of my recent thoughts/learnings (this guy is very helpful as well). Looking forward to sharing

http://forums.babypips.com/free-fore...t-model-6.html
  • #634
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:06am Jun 14, 2013 12:06am
Quoting andyhardwick
Hi mate good to see your still going strong at this. I have come round to the SD stuff completely now and will start getting some charts up in here if thats still ok? Im not trading for real yest just observing and seem to be getting the hang of it. Check out the last few posts on this thread (Im Paddymctaff) for some of my recent thoughts/learnings (this guy is very helpful as well). Looking forward to sharing http://forums.babypips.com/free-fore...t-model-6.html
Hi mate,

Of course! You're most welcomed to post your analysis here at anytime. We're here to share and learn together.
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #635
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:12am Jun 14, 2013 12:12am
Here is one I am watching. Seems like a great level on the hour 4 and you can see what it looks like on the 15 min. I want to get to the stage where I am confident enough to place POs always and if the zone doesnt warrant a PO then skip it. I am also playing with making sure that I can get 1:3 r/r by the next major S/D zone and just leaving it to either hit the stop or the target. I see so may retests that taking some off or moving to BE seems less and less attractive. 50% winrate at 1:3 is enough to make a fortune and seems very achievable by picking only the very best zones.

I have been reading readthemarket as you clearly have as well, but for now I am going to focus on the best zones only Kenneth Lee style and inless price is meandering just above/below the zone soaking up all the orders (in which case I will cancel) , I am just going to let be what will be. This is all just watching and learnign at the moment, once I am comfortable I will start making very small trades probably at the start of July.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #636
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:34am Jun 14, 2013 12:34am
Quoting andyhardwick
Here is one I am watching. Seems like a great level on the hour 4 and you can see what it looks like on the 15 min. I want to get to the stage where I am confident enough to place POs always and if the zone doesnt warrant a PO then skip it. I am also playing with making sure that I can get 1:3 r/r by the next major S/D zone and just leaving it to either hit the stop or the target. I see so may retests that taking some off or moving to BE seems less and less attractive. 50% winrate at 1:3 is enough to make a fortune and seems very achievable by...
Hi Andy, I agree with your point. But one major problem with the approach too look for the "best looking" levels in the past, may not be sufficient to make you profitable.

In trading, we need to know what happened in the past, look what is happening now, and anticipate what's gonna happen next.

If you merely look at the strength of the level, it's clear that you will neglect what's happening in the present, which greatly reduced the probability of winning.

Anyway, I'm at work now (screw day job ), I'll look deeper in the USDJPY level that you've drawn, and perhaps share something I see.

Good trading.
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #637
  • Jun 14, 2013 12:52am Jun 14, 2013 12:52am
I do know what you mean but Ken Lee doesnt worry about quasimodos etc and that is good enough for me. Please dont get me wrong im not critisising at all and the guys over at readthemarket are obv super sick traders. There is just something about Kens style and approach which hits a note for me. I have also read somewhere that Sam Seiden will only take about 2 out of every 10 zones he identifies (for POs anyway) and thats where I want to be. I know that if there is a messy approach to a level then that changes things no matter how good the level and Im not going to blindly set the PO and never look at it again, but I am at this stage not going to worry about certain entry triggers such as QMs and diamonds and as long as the approach is ok just let the level do its thing.

Living in Australia and working long hours also makes it hard for me to monitor the markets during the UK/US session so that is also a consideration (on anything less than the daily that is) and another appeal of the 'Ken Lee' way lol.

Anyway its only been v recently that I have settled on pure SD and all this is likely to completely change in the next few weeks/months as I learn more lol. By the end of June I want a strict trading plan in place to follow for July with no changing it half way through.

Looking forwards ot hearing your thoughts on the USDJPY

And yah screw the day job!
  • #638
  • Jun 14, 2013 1:31am Jun 14, 2013 1:31am
Quoting andyhardwick
I do know what you mean but Ken Lee doesnt worry about quasimodos etc and that is good enough for me. Please dont get me wrong im not critisising at all and the guys over at readthemarket are obv super sick traders. There is just something about Kens style and approach which hits a note for me. I have also read somewhere that Sam Seiden will only take about 2 out of every 10 zones he identifies (for POs anyway) and thats where I want to be. I know that if there is a messy approach to a level then that changes things no matter how good the level...
Hi Andy,

Do not forgot that Ken always pay attention to higher highs/higher lows, which is the same as what price is currently doing. His approach often is based on most current levels, and he doesn't go really far back as your USDJPY level. And one thing that he's adhered to is, to not short when price is at higher half of the screen, and not long when price is at lower half of the screen.

Anyway, each person has his own preferences in trading. Find one that suits you best, stick to it, and get good with it.
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #639
  • Jun 14, 2013 3:30am Jun 14, 2013 3:30am
ah ok I like that half screen thing. I do remember him saying that sometimes you have to scroll out to different time frames to find level sometimes which is the case with UJ as there arent any tradeable levels to get long before the one I have marked (I dont think).

Couldnt agree more with the finding your own way thing, thats what makes this game so fascinating. Great to discuss the differences as well as it really forces you to analyse and question your own beliefs which can result in either reinforcing them, or adjusting/improving them,
  • #640
  • Jun 14, 2013 3:37am Jun 14, 2013 3:37am
Quoting keroro0o0o
New trade: EURJPY sell 30mins chart: {image} 5mins chart: {image} Update: 1st target hit. Holding towards the 2nd target with tightened SL. {image}
Update: Closed manually as don't like the compression towards the demand/flag limit, though it's the 4th test.

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Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
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