Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 7 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #121
  • Jun 10, 2013 3:07am Jun 10, 2013 3:07am
Got triggered long on NZDUSD last night. I had had that long entry on H4 demand area for days, and last night it was triggered. It's a H4 fresh and authentic demand area within D1 and WK fresh demand, right at the extreme.


This is the origin of that H4 demand level on NZDUSD:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 118 KB


This is my entry, already at BE:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 118 KB


See how the D1 demand zone looked like, this is why I am long there. That H4 demand level was the only demand level available on that zone, it was also at the extreme.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 139 KB


Let's see if it wants to hold and reach my target.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #122
  • Jun 10, 2013 5:55am Jun 10, 2013 5:55am
Quoting panoramia
Got triggered long on NZDUSD last night. I had had that long entry on H4 demand area for days, and last night it was triggered. It's a H4 fresh and authentic demand area within D1 and WK fresh demand, right at the extreme. This is the origin of that H4 demand level on NZDUSD: {image} This is my entry, already at BE: {image} See how the D1 demand zone looked like, this is why I am long there. That H4 demand level was the only demand level available on that zone, it was also at the extreme. {image} Let's see if it wants to hold and reach my target....
Hi Panoramia,
I can't distinguish your entry point on the chart NZDUSD.
Is it near the SL?
And why you choose the TP precisely at 0.80585?
Regards
  • #123
  • Jun 10, 2013 6:08am Jun 10, 2013 6:08am
Quoting mosah
{quote} Hi Panoramia, I can't distinguish your entry point on the chart NZDUSD. Is it near the SL? And why you choose the TP precisely at 0.80585? Regards
Mosah,

My take on it....If you look at the H4 chart you will see the level that was identified and this is the area where the pending order was added, Alfonso has moved his stop to what now to what looks like +1 so he won't lose if the trade turns on him.

The last chart is of the Daily TF which also shows a demand level of which the H4 coincides, The H4 area will have been taken as the demand area was smaller and therefore less risk if the trade doesn't work out!.
  • #124
  • Jun 10, 2013 6:22am Jun 10, 2013 6:22am
Quoting fwloop
{quote} Mosah, My take on it....If you look at the H4 chart you will see the level that was identified and this is the area where the pending order was added, Alfonso has moved his stop to what now to what looks like +1 so he won't lose if the trade turns on him. The last chart is of the Daily TF which also shows a demand level of which the H4 coincides, The H4 area will have been taken as the demand area was smaller and therefore less risk if the trade doesn't work out!.
Thank you fwloop,
Now, I see for the entry point and SL.
But i can't identify the demand level you are talking about.
Could you show it with chart?
  • #125
  • Jun 10, 2013 6:50am Jun 10, 2013 6:50am
Hi Mosah,

See the attached, I have highlighted the original demand area that was used for Alfonso to place the pending order!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NUH410-06-2013.jpg Size: 197 KB
  • #126
  • Jun 10, 2013 6:56am Jun 10, 2013 6:56am
Quoting fwloop
Hi Mosah, See the attached, I have highlighted the original demand area that was used for Alfonso to place the pending order! {image}
Hi fwloop,
I see this encircled one but i don't see the one where the TP were placed.
  • #127
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:13am Jun 10, 2013 7:13am
Quoting mosah
{quote} Hi fwloop, I see this encircled one but i don't see the one where the TP were placed.
I see, I can't answer the rationale for Alfonso setting his TP at that point, it's certainly well over 3R return, so he may have just set it up there to see how the trade pans out! Maybe he will answer later!!
  • #128
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:44am Jun 10, 2013 7:44am
Exactly, my TP is temporarily set up there, waiting to see what it does and will act accordingly, will trail it on H1 structures if it wants to keep on running, that's all! Hope that's clearer!

Alfonso

Quoting fwloop
{quote} I see, I can't answer the rationale for Alfonso setting his TP at that point, it's certainly well over 3R return, so he may have just set it up there to see how the trade pans out! Maybe he will answer later!!
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #129
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:50am Jun 10, 2013 7:50am
Quoting panoramia
Exactly, my TP is temporarily set up there, waiting to see what it does and will act accordingly, will trail it on H1 structures if it wants to keep on running, that's all! Hope that's clearer! Alfonso {quote}
Thank you Panoramia & fwloop
Yes, it's clear now
  • #130
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:52am Jun 10, 2013 7:52am
Hi Panoramia,
I don't have the trend lines on my charts.
Is it a separate indicator or what?
  • #131
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:55am Jun 10, 2013 7:55am
Trendlines are manually painted, if the levels break my trendlines on the entry time then I will cancel my entries, that simple. It's a yes or it's a no, like a robot, there is no orange like the traffic lights, either it's a green or a red, there is no indecision type of trade on MT, it's Sell or Buy

Trendlines are part of my rules, some of the trades I've posted here were cancelled because of them, and good I did because they would have been losses. Using TLs as part of my decision making process.

Alfonso


Quoting mosah
Hi Panoramia, I don't have the trend lines on my charts. Is it a separate indicator or what?
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #132
  • Jun 10, 2013 8:27am Jun 10, 2013 8:27am
Quoting panoramia
Trendlines are manually painted, if the levels break my trendlines on the entry time then I will cancel my entries, that simple. It's a yes or it's a no, like a robot, there is no orange like the traffic lights, either it's a green or a red, there is no indecision type of trade on MT, it's Sell or Buy Trendlines are part of my rules, some of the trades I've posted here were cancelled because of them, and good I did because they would have been losses. Using TLs as part of my decision making process. Alfonso {quote}
Good
  • #133
  • Jun 11, 2013 2:35am Jun 11, 2013 2:35am
Quoting panoramia
Trendlines are manually painted, if the levels break my trendlines on the entry time then I will cancel my entries, that simple. It's a yes or it's a no, like a robot, there is no orange like the traffic lights, either it's a green or a red, there is no indecision type of trade on MT, it's Sell or Buy Trendlines are part of my rules, some of the trades I've posted here were cancelled because of them, and good I did because they would have been losses. Using TLs as part of my decision making process. Alfonso {quote}

Hi Panoramia,

Really enjoying your thread.

Could you explain how you use the trendlines to cancel a trade as I don't follow what you mean?

Thx
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #134
  • Jun 11, 2013 4:51pm Jun 11, 2013 4:51pm
This is crazy I spent 1 full hour recording with Camtasia a nice video on levels, how to draw them and how to filter them out... after I pressed stop it said there were not enough resources to save it, crazy... 1 full hour lost, and the video was really nice, I was very happy about it... I quit for now.. It drained my energy for some days, sorry

Technology sucks! Things don't work when they have to. I have 8 gigabytes ram, nice SDD hard drive, but the problem is that I have Windows, the biggest virus ever!
Sorry!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #135
  • Jun 11, 2013 5:25pm Jun 11, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting panoramia
This is crazy I spent 1 full hour recording with Camtasia a nice video on levels, how to draw them and how to filter them out... after I pressed stop it said there were not enough resources to save it, crazy... 1 full hour lost, and the video was really nice, I was very happy about it... I quit for now.. It drained my energy for some days, sorry Technology sucks! Things don't work when they have to. I have 8 gigabytes ram, nice SDD hard drive, but the problem is that I have Windows, the biggest virus ever! Sorry! Alfonso
Chart 1 GBP/CAD. it is near a daily supply level. I tried going to the 4 hour to see it bounced of a previous supply level; couldnt find none. it made a new high trying to short it for when it comes back to that supply level for a retrace.
Chart 2 is a 4H of that D1 supply level. trying to find an entry for a short.
Chart3 is a 1h tightened the supply level
Chart 4 is a 30M and saw a drop base drop (fresh level) just don't know whether to use the 30m or 1h for the supply level entry?????
Where should i Put my entry level???
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.png Size: 106 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp2.png Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp3.png Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp4.png Size: 103 KB
  • #136
  • Jun 11, 2013 5:29pm Jun 11, 2013 5:29pm
That's a typical and common problem Where to place your order?

The main problem is this:

- Use always the SAME timeframe for your curve and the same timeframe for your entries (the levels)
- If you use the H4, H1, M30, M15, you will have 4 decisions to make. You will not be consistent

My tip is this:
- Use the D1 as Supply and Demand curve
- Trade counter trend on fresh and authentic levels at the D1 supply areas, with strong imbalance, little time at the area
- Don't drill it down to M30 or M15 to look for the level. The level SHOULD be on your entry timeframe. H1 or H4, that's all. And at the D1 supply, high in the curve. That's higher odds.

My trade would be on the H1 supply at the D1 proximal line, not H1 is got a temporal uptrend, won't sell before it reaches the D1 supply on a good area, else no trade for me

Hope that helps!
Alfonso

Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Chart 1 GBP/CAD. it is near a daily supply level. I tried going to the 4 hour to see it bounced of a previous supply level; couldnt find none. it made a new high trying to short it for when it comes back to that supply level for a retrace. Chart 2 is a 4H of that D1 supply level. trying to find an entry for a short. Chart3 is a 1h tightened the supply level Chart 4 is a 30M and saw a drop base drop (fresh level) just don't know whether to use the 30m or 1h for the supply level entry????? Where should i Put my entry level??? {image} {image}...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #137
  • Jun 11, 2013 5:47pm Jun 11, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Chart 1 GBP/CAD. it is near a daily supply level. I tried going to the 4 hour to see it bounced of a previous supply level; couldnt find none. it made a new high trying to short it for when it comes back to that supply level for a retrace. Chart 2 is a 4H of that D1 supply level. trying to find an entry for a short. Chart3 is a 1h tightened the supply level Chart 4 is a 30M and saw a drop base drop (fresh level) just don't know whether to use the 30m or 1h for the supply level entry????? Where should i Put my entry level??? {image} {image}...
Hi Sdprice,
Your rectangle must be drawn as shown on the chart.
-The high of the red candle
-The open of the blue candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sdprice_gbp1.png Size: 107 KB
  • #138
  • Jun 11, 2013 6:03pm Jun 11, 2013 6:03pm
Yes Mosah, it's not well drawn. I saw the images on my mobile, hadn't realized about it.

That D1 supply was a reaction to previous D1 supply level that was broken with last 3 days high. The best supply area is at 1.6103 - 1.6215, with a nice gap down. However, the sellers on H4/H1 at 1.6020 look quite good.

Buying at 1.5889 H1 demand area could be a good idea as well, since it has violated the highs and it's respecting a temporal upslope trendline making higher highs and high lows. Area looks similar on H4. The only drawback is that we are now on that D1 supply area, even though it's too wide and could easily penetrate it to the sell area a 1.6016.

See the charts below. The upper D1 and H4 supply area were too wide, so for a set & forget, the H1 is a fresh supply area, original and with a strong imbalance. I will add an order up there yes or yes! with a few pips wiggle room above the high

Quoting mosah
{quote} Hi Sdprice, Your rectangle must be drawn as shown on the chart. -The high of the red candle -The open of the blue candle {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 105 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #139
  • Jun 12, 2013 1:45am Jun 12, 2013 1:45am
Quoting mosah
{quote} Hi Sdprice, Your rectangle must be drawn as shown on the chart. -The high of the red candle -The open of the blue candle {image}

Hi mosah. I corrected my chart and thankyou for that info. so why do i have to do that for my chart: to place the rectangle on the Open candle of the blue and the high candle for the red(price decline). If i am on the D1 why would i start the rectangle at the open of the blue. I thought that is a different day, and that is just the Rally then to base then to drop.
Question 1: where to place rectangle on that chart and the reason why to start it at the blue open candle? could you please explain this in detail.
Question 2: Would you please show me a chart for a demand area and how to exactly place the rectangle; just to give me an example.

Thankyou for your help and spotting that out for me
  • #140
  • Jun 12, 2013 3:20am Jun 12, 2013 3:20am
Quoting panoramia
This is crazy I spent 1 full hour recording with Camtasia a nice video on levels, how to draw them and how to filter them out... after I pressed stop it said there were not enough resources to save it, crazy... 1 full hour lost, and the video was really nice, I was very happy about it... I quit for now.. It drained my energy for some days, sorry Technology sucks! Things don't work when they have to. I have 8 gigabytes ram, nice SDD hard drive, but the problem is that I have Windows, the biggest virus ever! Sorry! Alfonso

Panoramia,

Unfortunately, that's what happens sometimes with technology. Don't discontinue your hard work, I think a lot of people are benefiting a lot from your suggestions, me included Keep up the good work,

Happy trading Y'all
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