A Big Warning Signal For EUR/USD; Stay Short - Credit Agricole | Forex Factory

A Big Warning Signal For EUR/USD; Stay Short - Credit Agricole | Forex Factory

A Big Warning Signal For EUR/USD; Stay Short - Credit Agricole

From efxnews.com

The EUR has been appreciating against the USD of late. The single currency received support from a slightly more upbeat ECB press conference on Thursday. Rates and hence the EUR have in particular been benefitting from ECB President Draghi’s relaxed stance regarding tighter liquidity conditions. However, the same has been weighing on risk sentiment as suggested by European stock markets. In our view this provides a big warning signal. Should EUR-denominated risk assets fall back into a trend of sustainable underperformance against their US peers this may act as an indication for a deteriorating capital flow ... (full story)

Comments / Top
Subscribe

Jun 10, 2013 1:15am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

haha... how can it be short when 1.35 is on the cards

Ignored

Ehem... I guess you only read the headline. I believe 1.35 is still within the "last few months' range"

"Accordingly, we continue to belief that EUR/USD levels around the upper end of the last few months’ range will prove unsustainable and we continue to maintain a short position."

Jun 10, 2013 2:35am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Rubbish, we have already breached range of last few months.

Ignored

The last time I checked, 1.35 was lower than 1.3710.
Perhaps basic mathematics is all "rubbish" to you?

Jun 10, 2013 2:45am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Umm....
Basic maths tells me the monthly candle that reach 1.37 does not fall within the range of the last few months.
Ie: 3.

Ignored

...and how did you reach the conclusion that :"few" means "3"?

Jun 10, 2013 2:56am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Because it says "upper range" unsustainable.
And the last 3 candles have a relatively similar upper range where as Feb obviously has a much higher upper point so I did not figure it into the equation.

Ignored

I see. I guess that makes sense. However, I suppose it all depends which time frame one would be trading in. If you look at the daily chart, the range would be interpreted as the consolidation since the 1.3710 high... but then everyone has their own perceptions.

Jun 10, 2013 3:00am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

We have had a weekly close above the said upper range, and while I see a decent pullback to 1.3-29 area, I doubt it will hold.

Ignored

You may be right about that, but you may also be wrong. Most analysts will tell you that the Euro is still in a long term down trend. Therefore the target for EUR/USD over the coming months is 1.22 and below. I would certainly not rule out a test of 1.29 and a bounce back up to 1.35 before that happens, but ultimately that's where it is going and this view is very well supported by the fundamentals.

Jun 10, 2013 9:25am

Quoting bmac

Disliked

This is pretty much perfect for me. I'm still long from 2960 because last week all the articles were suggesting to short the rallies. So, someone show me the pa that indicates this rally has ended. Also, if they're suggesting to short a rally, exactly whom is buying enough to create the rally in the first place?

Ignored

The latest rally was a short squeeze... typical deep pocket move. Take out the stops and pocket the loot. Next step is to wait for more shorts to build up and then do it again...and again... until it works no more. After that they flip and start squeezing out the bulls. Same old story for this pair, until such time that the reality of the Eurozone disaster takes hold and the sucker finally tanks.

Jun 10, 2013 2:25am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

Ehem... I guess you only read the headline. I believe 1.35 is still within the "last few months' range"

"Accordingly, we continue to belief that EUR/USD levels around the upper end of the last few months’ range will prove unsustainable and we continue to maintain a short position."

Ignored

Rubbish, we have already breached range of last few months.

Jun 10, 2013 2:40am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

The last time I checked, 1.35 was lower than 1.3710.
Perhaps basic mathematics is all "rubbish" to you?

Ignored

Umm....
Basic maths tells me the monthly candle that reach 1.37 does not fall within the range of the last few months.
Ie: 3.

Jun 10, 2013 2:50am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

...and how did you reach the conclusion that :"few" means "3"?

Ignored

Because it says "upper range" unsustainable.
And the last 3 candles have a relatively similar upper range where as Feb obviously has a much higher upper point so I did not figure it into the equation.

Jun 10, 2013 3:13am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

You may be right about that, but you may also be wrong. Most analysts will tell you that the Euro is still in a long term down trend. Therefore the target for EUR/USD over the coming months is 1.22 and below. I would certainly not rule out a test of 1.29 and a bounce back up to 1.35 before that happens, but ultimately that's where it is going and this view is very well supported by the fundamentals.

Ignored

I'm thinking we will breach 1.37 before any of that lower range break gets a chance to happen.
"ultimately" is an undefinable period with huge potential drawdowns.
I actually see Potential for 1.43-44.

Jun 10, 2013 3:14am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

You may be right about that, but you may also be wrong. Most analysts will tell you that the Euro is still in a long term down trend. Therefore the target for EUR/USD over the coming months is 1.22 and below. I would certainly not rule out a test of 1.29 and a bounce back up to 1.35 before that happens, but ultimately that's where it is going and this view is very well supported by the fundamentals.

Ignored

Got to go, dinners on.
Take care.

Jun 10, 2013 8:10pm

Quoting Alzuraiqi

Disliked

eur will go down sooner or later >>Just sell rallies targeting 1.28

Ignored

Personally, I would wait for "them" to tell us to start buying the dip before shorting any rallies.
You will minimize your drawdown that way

Jun 10, 2013 8:52pm

Quoting vox dei

Disliked

Stay short for how long? a year, 2 years... What about the stop size? 200+ pips move to the upside cannot discarded atm. Actually, it seems both possible and plausible.

Why would a large bank help anyone else make money?

Ignored

Its a curious question I have asked myself and others at times.
The only response I have ever received is silence.
Speaks for itself in my opinion.

Jun 10, 2013 8:57am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Confusion central - what a laugh.

Reminds of when I was a newbie scouring news sites to make meaning of the market. My saddest days in trading - but it is instructive that I not only grew out of that but lived to develop an approach that works and one that effectively dismisses the need to depend on the trite disciplines of fundamentals and technicals in any way shape or form. Non linear systems is the way to go. Understand it and build your approach on it and you will see better days ahead. Of that there can be no doubt.

Ignored

...here, borrow this trumpet...

Jun 11, 2013 4:29am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Its a curious question I have asked myself and others at times.
The only response I have ever received is silence.
Speaks for itself in my opinion.

Ignored

Thanks for this.
So far I had constrained this thinking to the utterances of GS and JP Morgan.
On the daily, EU has just broken north from a double bottom.
On the 4hr price is pushing north in a determined fashion.
So yeah, stay short because getting out now means accepting the loss!
Banksters,...hey

Jun 10, 2013 8:23pm

Stay short for how long? a year, 2 years... What about the stop size? 200+ pips move to the upside cannot discarded atm. Actually, it seems both possible and plausible.

Why would a large bank help anyone else make money?

Jun 10, 2013 3:49am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

You may be right about that, but you may also be wrong. Most analysts will tell you that the Euro is still in a long term down trend. Therefore the target for EUR/USD over the coming months is 1.22 and below. I would certainly not rule out a test of 1.29 and a bounce back up to 1.35 before that happens, but ultimately that's where it is going and this view is very well supported by the fundamentals.

Ignored

probably , but I think we have to wait for the german election. And Merkel is protecting herself.... have to talk more for german citizen.

Jun 10, 2013 4:18am

This news not reliable, EUR in correcting stage, will not reach 1.300 level maybe the most 1.3100 level & it's look bullish next 2 month , the turning point will be US core retail sales this Thursday & US PPI this friday.

Jun 10, 2013 5:04am

ooh, yea, you maintain SHORT position, good luck with that, but why are you telling the public about it? EUR/USD will go up or down...but when and why? nobody knows..it is the law of supply and demand, in addition to forex mafias manipulations...when EUR/USD is expensive SELLERS will come..and when it is CHEAP buyers will come.....

Jun 10, 2013 9:07am

This is pretty much perfect for me. I'm still long from 2960 because last week all the articles were suggesting to short the rallies. So, someone show me the pa that indicates this rally has ended. Also, if they're suggesting to short a rally, exactly whom is buying enough to create the rally in the first place?

Jun 10, 2013 10:12am

Agreed, though I try not to label anything anymore as it gets me in trouble with timing. Charts are the best information I have and even then I need to check multiple platforms to see the differences in closing times. As we are seeing in bonds, in a fiat reality, zero is not the lower limit. Eventually, we'll break this multi-year flat to down ranging one way or the other.

Jun 10, 2013 5:05am

This is a classic case, going by the comments..

"For every smart trader who buys, there's an equally smart trader who sells..." its only the fool who gets caught out on the wrong side

Not sure about you guys, but I trade with Wolfe Waves.. on the daily charts, I see point 4 being firmly put in place at 1.3307. The only direction now is down, which is 1.26 (maybe up to 1.25), before the uptrend begins, which is when 1.34 and even 1.37 is quite likely.

Also, the above news and similar stories need to be taken into perspective. An intra day trader could tell you 1.323 is where price is headed while a long term trader would tell you 1.28 is the target. While both can be disputed, if you take into account the trading strategy in question, it puts fresh light in the scheme of things.

Jun 10, 2013 9:58am

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

The latest rally was a short squeeze... typical deep pocket move. Take out the stops and pocket the loot. Next step is to wait for more shorts to build up and then do it again...and again... until it works no more. After that they flip and start squeezing out the bulls. Same old story for this pair, until such time that the reality of the Eurozone disaster takes hold and the sucker finally tanks.

Ignored

+100 rinse and repeat process until its all dried up!!

Jun 11, 2013 4:38am

Good time to short

today - unless my indicators craps out

Already shorting at R2 and waiting for R3 .3342 to short even bigger.

But crumbling upwards looks flaky, but will remember to take TP as I go along

On side matters: With PS4 cheaper by £100 in UK, it does points to me that the Js are desperate - real desperate. "Ebi" power looks to be diminishing if the Js do actually think what damage "Ebi" had and is doing to their country. Anyway, it's not my problem, let it go into recession for another 30yrs for all I care.

Jun 10, 2013 3:48am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Got to go, dinners on.
Take care.

Ignored

Cheers

Jun 10, 2013 6:32am

Down year for the Euro, I'm still short, all the way to the bottom. You're not going to see the Euro above 1.34 soon.

Jun 10, 2013 7:41am

Quoting samson omi

Disliked

really don't know what to believe

Ignored

Just believe what you "know". Either love your trade, or don't take it at all.

Jun 9, 2013 11:53pm

Ummm, no.
Maybe down to 1.3 area or thereabouts but would not hold shorts for too long.
Take your BS elsewhere efx news...

Jun 10, 2013 2:06am

Crap. Big problem for me because I agree with this piece of muppet news...

Jun 10, 2013 2:55am

We have had a weekly close above the said upper range, and while I see a decent pullback to 1.3-29 area, I doubt it will hold.

Jun 10, 2013 2:45am

Oh,someone forgot to close his short positions

Jun 10, 2013 10:18am

Oh, and I'm targeting 3460 with a take profit limit just south of that.

Jun 10, 2013 5:41am

candle confused, trader may be confused too ...

Jun 11, 2013 7:39am

nice one today

Jun 10, 2013 5:06am

Confusion central -

what a laugh.

Reminds of when I was a newbie scouring news sites to make meaning of the market. My saddest days in trading - but it is instructive that I not only grew out of that but lived to develop an approach that works and one that effectively dismisses the need to depend on the trite disciplines of fundamentals and technicals in any way shape or form. Non linear systems is the way to go. Understand it and build your approach on it and you will see better days ahead. Of that there can be no doubt.

Jun 10, 2013 4:05pm

eur will go down sooner or later >>Just sell rallies targeting 1.28

Jun 10, 2013 7:39am

really don't know what to believe

Jun 12, 2013 4:45am

short for eur/usd

Trader#F7F2

Jun 10, 2013 1:01am

Cit.: "Time To Sell EUR/USD: Credit Agricole Sold $10 Million At 1.3074 For 1.2485"....

Just consider what does that $10 Million count for the perhaps largest bank of the world !!! - It is just wast of time to read such non-sense...

Jun 10, 2013 1:32am

ha ha I think it can be continued to decline, in because 1.32 is correct, .. and I'm sure will go down

Trader#E2B5

Jun 10, 2013 2:14am

It will not go straight down as for it going to 1.2485 i am sure it will get there soooner or later to test the waters but not before the euro tests everyones nuts because she will up and down as you guys know she goes both ways in big ways. big swings this lady euro those. i see hunred or 200 pips umping half of it nd move stop to break even to hopellly make more.

Jun 10, 2013 2:24am

Prime noise - they do not have the tools for the job and depending on trite disciplines they must fail.

Jun 11, 2013 5:40am — Edited

Quoting Exodus

Disliked

...here, borrow this trumpet...

Ignored

I owe you one. Nice one though I got say - very clever.

Trader#819A

Jun 10, 2013 12:12am

haha... how can it be short when 1.35 is on the cards

Trader#70B8

Jun 10, 2013 1:08am

yeah stay short, tp 1.2880 sl 1.30+

Trader#70B8

Jun 10, 2013 1:09am

sorry 1.3300 +

Trader#EFA1

Jun 10, 2013 2:56am

you store your money into the bank... listen to the bank... stay short.... as if the bank is goin to make money for you... muahahahahah

Trader#819A

Jun 10, 2013 8:37am

watchout for tomorrow upside sweep

Trader#9F7D

Jun 10, 2013 9:26pm

Looks directionless for lack of info.
Me's thinking (not to hard) watch the Germans as this court action and looming election could hold some brewing upsets.

Related Stories

There are no posts to display for these settings.

Story Stats

Jun 9, 2013 10:33pm
Posted by
eFx Newz

Fundamental Analysis

49

11.6K