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  • #601
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:07am Jun 9, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yes, as long as we get a close under $19.00 on monday, hell i might just buy it on the open if its still priced cheap enough or the 17.50 if not
I'm gonna wait for the close on monday to make a decision, even if i miss the boat i'll wait for a bounce then buy later in the week, we may get a wtf moment in gold this coming week
  • #602
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:07am Jun 9, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Cecil Gee
T.F. edz IS NOT LIQUID ENOUGH even though it has some good movement, it bid/ask spread is wide.
concur. I like the look of the EEM spread I showed but not sure I will take it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #603
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:10am Jun 9, 2013 10:10am
I've traded EEM before, its easier far as execution goes
  • #604
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:11am Jun 9, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm gonna wait for the close on monday to make a decision, even if i miss the boat i'll wait for a bounce then buy later in the week, we may get a wtf moment in gold this coming week
WILL, southside
  • #605
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:17am Jun 9, 2013 10:17am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} WILL, southside
like the sound of that, brother. tired of that range. there's a whole lotta empty space under it, too. Was reading recently some interviews with the bigger miner CEO's saying they would have massive shut-downs at gold <$1,200...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #606
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:19am Jun 9, 2013 10:19am
Quoting The Fool
EEM maybe a better play for an emer markets stock turn, much better liquidity & cheaper options Maybe I will sell Jun 22 $39.00 puts @ $0.42 and buy Jul 20 $42 calls @ $0.41 {image}
T.F. i don't like that trade because if EEM finishes below 40.42 this week then your leaving your $39 puts potentially at risk of being exercised as EEM could slide further before june's expiration and hit your $39 strike. Just my opinion, check your weekly chart
  • #607
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:21am Jun 9, 2013 10:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} like the sound of that, brother. tired of that range. there's a whole lotta empty space under it, too. Was reading recently some interviews with the bigger miner CEO's saying they would have massive shut-downs at gold <$1,200...
I wrote somewhere I would like to see Gold at $707, i must of been drinking that day
  • #608
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:27am Jun 9, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. i don't like that trade because if EEM finishes below 40.42 this week then your leaving your $39 puts potentially at risk of being exercised as EEM could slide further before june's expiration and hit your $39 strike. Just my opinion, check your weekly chart
well EEM has not been below $39 since Sep '12, but I could see a chart read with that recent slide continuing. I favor a bounce, though. I wouldn't take that trade unless volatility backs down, and I might have others I like better anyway. Got a busy week coming up with little screen time during market hours after Monday, so looking to put on some longer term trades
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #609
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:37am Jun 9, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I wrote somewhere I would like to see Gold at $707, i must of been drinking that day
still prolly plenty more unwinding to do but I doubt we'll see that level again.

If gold starts a break this week I will get some puts on FXA for sure, maybe a calendar put spread on GLD
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #610
  • Jun 9, 2013 3:04pm Jun 9, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I wrote somewhere I would like to see Gold at $707, i must of been drinking that day
I would say around $780-40.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #611
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:05pm Jun 9, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} still prolly plenty more unwinding to do but I doubt we'll see that level again. If gold starts a break this week I will get some puts on FXA for sure, maybe a calendar put spread on GLD
looking at the FXA chart it actually looks like it wants a strong bounce.
  • #612
  • Jun 9, 2013 7:07pm Jun 9, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} looking at the FXA chart it actually looks like it wants a strong bounce.
won't do it unless China says so
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #613
  • Jun 9, 2013 7:23pm Jun 9, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} looking at the FXA chart it actually looks like it wants a strong bounce.
I'm hoping for that. I want a retracement to go short.
  • #614
  • Edited 8:24pm Jun 9, 2013 8:03pm | Edited 8:24pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9580CV20130609

if analysis in the link above is right, latin american stocks will get slaughtered in a liquidity squeeze.

EWW is a Mexican stock etf with tradeable options, will look for a cheap calendar put spread for a heavy Autumn sell-off.

....Jan '14 $56 puts sell for $1.73, fund that with Jul 20 $59 put sale @ $0.44, then successive front month otm put sales, as long as EWW holds up, which it would do if oil trades high....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #615
  • Jun 9, 2013 8:39pm Jun 9, 2013 8:39pm
hey guys... hope everyone had a good weekend

looking at a couple of opportunities this week

one that looks good is a July 36/39 bear call spread on MSFT... very high probability we are trading below the 36 and that volatility should die down by that point to collect about $.69-$.77 credit depending on entry early this week

Im also looking at a similar setup on DISCA for a slightly riskier June 75/80 call credit spread that is slightly ITM right now... the premium is much higher though due to the risk of assignment so Ill watch it closely and may just place the spread after the 75 breaks depending on momentum and timing plus the premium I can get.

Although everyone is still waiting for GLD to break to the downside I really think we are going to get another bounce and stay in this channel... IV is still not really in an actionable level for a range capturing trade for my strategies though so Im really just waiting for a break one way or the other.
  • #616
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:23pm Jun 9, 2013 10:23pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Im also looking at a similar setup on DISCA for a slightly riskier June 75/80 call credit spread that is slightly ITM right now... the premium is much higher though due to the risk of assignment so Ill watch it closely and may just place the spread after the 75 breaks depending on momentum and timing plus the premium I can get. Although everyone is still waiting for GLD to break to the downside I really think we are going to get another bounce and stay in this channel... IV is still not really in an actionable level for a range capturing trade for...
interesting rangebound pa on DISCA, I will watch that one. re: gold we have the best chance for a break down that we've had in the last month imho. watching it m/l flat thru late Asia, been getting bought mostly in Asian hours, we'll see if Europe can sell it. good luck wit your trades bro, it might be shaping up a dull summer after all...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #617
  • Jun 9, 2013 10:53pm Jun 9, 2013 10:53pm
USO bear play looking possible with good run of USD strength, looking to enter if/when oil >$97...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #618
  • Jun 9, 2013 11:56pm Jun 9, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9580CV20130609 if analysis in the link above is right, latin american stocks will get slaughtered in a liquidity squeeze. EWW is a Mexican stock etf with tradeable options, will look for a cheap calendar put spread for a heavy Autumn sell-off. ....Jan '14 $56 puts sell for $1.73, fund that with Jul 20 $59 put sale @ $0.44, then successive front month otm put sales, as long as EWW holds up, which it would do if oil trades high....
thx T.F. EWW is now my watch list, put spread is good on this, wiish it had weeklys
  • #619
  • Edited Jun 10, 2013 1:01am Jun 9, 2013 11:57pm | Edited Jun 10, 2013 1:01am
rising long bond yields will drag up mortgage rates and the REIT's will fall.

cheap otm Dec '13 VNQ puts...........also IYR

WFC supposedly the bigbank with heaviest mortgage exposure
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #620
  • Jun 10, 2013 12:04am Jun 10, 2013 12:04am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm gonna wait for the close on monday to make a decision, even if i miss the boat i'll wait for a bounce then buy later in the week, we may get a wtf moment in gold this coming week
Hell no, just seen the awesome NIKKEI over 600+ points, dow futures up s/p futures up if this carries on into the opening then VXX will open with a gap down and want to see gold under 1378 for increased momentum, if china wasn't on bank holiday we would see that today
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