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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,941
  • Jun 8, 2013 7:17am Jun 8, 2013 7:17am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Hi Cuthbert, I wanted to apologise if my last few posts seemed rude / abrupt / argumentative. That honestly wasn't what I intended when I made them but I think I let some of my personal frustrations influence me and I was making them whilst trading. I can't see what you saw on the charts but that could be me at fault and I'm not in a position to advise anybody so please ignore anything I have said recently. As long as you are clear what you are doing, that's all that matters. I have thought about my "contributions" on this thread and they...
Hi ukman, I must admit that I have felt the same way at times. What has helped me is moving my trading talk to a Journal, where I can post my trading activities without fear of offending anyone. It's my record, and in a way, like having a conversation with a co-worker (trading in my den is a lonely endeavor so my journal is like having a discussion with co-workers). It's a helpful little trick to pass the time. Btw, we are all friends here, and upsetting / annoying / angering one another is part of being friends. Have a good weekend and trade well!
  • #40,942
  • Jun 8, 2013 10:16am Jun 8, 2013 10:16am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Hi Cuthbert, I wanted to apologise if my last few posts seemed rude / abrupt / argumentative. That honestly wasn't what I intended when I made them but I think I let some of my personal frustrations influence me and I was making them whilst trading. I can't see what you saw on the charts but that could be me at fault and I'm not in a position to advise anybody so please ignore anything I have said recently. As long as you are clear what you are doing, that's all that matters. I have thought about my "contributions" on this thread and they...
No need to stop posting my friend. This is by far the most friendly thread on FF I think. We are all in this together to help one another.
  • #40,943
  • Jun 8, 2013 10:23am Jun 8, 2013 10:23am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi ukman, I must admit that I have felt the same way at times. What has helped me is moving my trading talk to a Journal, where I can post my trading activities without fear of offending anyone. It's my record, and in a way, like having a conversation with a co-worker (trading in my den is a lonely endeavor so my journal is like having a discussion with co-workers). It's a helpful little trick to pass the time. Btw, we are all friends here, and upsetting / annoying / angering one another is part of being friends. Have a good weekend and...
Great post GEfx. I would encourage everyone to drop by your journal and have a read. It put the last piece of the trading puzzle in place for me.
Seeing how you do your thing opened my mind and made me see how all things given by Fti tie together. Since, I have increased my account quite
rapidly only trading a bit in the morning and some in asia. Not even everyday. I went from $119 to $407 in 2.5 weeks.
  • #40,944
  • Jun 8, 2013 6:37pm Jun 8, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Great post GEfx. I would encourage everyone to drop by your journal and have a read. It put the last piece of the trading puzzle in place for me. Seeing how you do your thing opened my mind and made me see how all things given by Fti tie together. Since, I have increased my account quite rapidly only trading a bit in the morning and some in asia. Not even everyday. I went from $119 to $407 in 2.5 weeks.
Tub, that is great news! Stay focused on what is working for you, and keep growing that account.
  • #40,945
  • Jun 8, 2013 11:38pm Jun 8, 2013 11:38pm
Thanks for your kind words GEfx and Mike.

As nobody seems to think I'm as rude as I do, I thought I'd post the charts we were talking about. For me I think they illustrate that it is not a good idea to imagine that you can follow the crosses just by looking at the majors. When I'm watching the pound I always glance at the figures for GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP on the market watch window so I can usually see if it starts to move in the crosses. However, I don't do that with all the majors so when I looked at these USD/CHF and USD/JPY charts, I concluded that they were moving in a normal relationship...which in a way they were. But, as I mentioned earlier, I didn't spot the difference in thrust between the two charts owing to the fact that the scales are not the same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY-CHF.png Size: 32 KB
  • #40,946
  • Edited Jun 9, 2013 12:09am Jun 8, 2013 11:56pm | Edited Jun 9, 2013 12:09am
Here's the CHF/JPY chart for the same time period. Now you could conclude that CHF was weakening by looking at just this chart and the two above. However......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF.png Size: 17 KB
  • #40,947
  • Jun 9, 2013 12:12am Jun 9, 2013 12:12am
If you look at some more crosses, such as EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, SGD/JPY and GBP/JPY, I think we can see that the movement is being driven by JPY strength (and USD weakness), not CHF weakness. My conclusion might be wrong of course, but that's how I read the charts. I'd be interested to know if others agree.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_GBP_CAD_SGD-JPY.png Size: 63 KB
  • #40,948
  • Jun 9, 2013 12:16am Jun 9, 2013 12:16am
If you compare all those crosses to USD/JPY, we see exactly the same pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD-JPY.png Size: 15 KB
  • #40,949
  • Jun 9, 2013 12:41am Jun 9, 2013 12:41am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Great post GEfx. I would encourage everyone to drop by your journal and have a read. It put the last piece of the trading puzzle in place for me. Seeing how you do your thing opened my mind and made me see how all things given by Fti tie together. Since, I have increased my account quite rapidly only trading a bit in the morning and some in asia. Not even everyday. I went from $119 to $407 in 2.5 weeks.
Wow TubGuy
Thats a pretty good ants job .
Keep it up , but never forget this quote of FTI
"When we move into the Art of war and MM , always remember this, I say again, do not forget.
It can be used as the sword that leads you into great victories and grandure.
But forget the, foundation and the mindset, be careless, and it will be that which will take your head off."-Link-
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,950
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:54am Jun 9, 2013 5:54am
Quoting ukmanthailan
If you look at some more crosses, such as EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, SGD/JPY and GBP/JPY, I think we can see that the movement is being driven by JPY strength (and USD weakness), not CHF weakness.


quite right.
I should use more crosses for more confirmation though.
but the story was told clear by only three charts usd/jpy, usd/chf and chf/jpy.

have a nice day.

regards
  • #40,951
  • Jun 9, 2013 6:18am Jun 9, 2013 6:18am
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} quite right. I should use more crosses for more confirmation though. but the story was told clear by only three charts usd/jpy, usd/chf and chf/jpy. have a nice day. regards
Thanks, you too.

I don't normally look at all those crosses, I was just looking around for more info to make sure I wasn't posting rubbish

It's easy to see that I am not looking at the whole picture all the time. I thought we were wasting each other's time debating this move at first but it's been a big help to me at least.

Cheers!

---------------

I need to rethink what charts I am looking at now. I have three monitors to play with so I should make good use of them instead of watching cartoons on one, posting on the other and looking at the markets on the third.
  • #40,952
  • Jun 9, 2013 8:06am Jun 9, 2013 8:06am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} Wow TubGuy Thats a pretty good ants job . Keep it up , but never forget this quote of FTI "When we move into the Art of war and MM , always remember this, I say again, do not forget. It can be used as the sword that leads you into great victories and grandure. But forget the, foundation and the mindset, be careless, and it will be that which will take your head off."-Link- Michael
Thanks for the reminder but I'm still looking for my head from the last couple years. Loped it off a while ago. I think it's healing slowly now.
  • #40,953
  • Jun 9, 2013 9:01am Jun 9, 2013 9:01am
This is very important for all traders this week. The court conducts its hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and while a final ruling is not likely, the process itself will give hits as to where the judges are in their thinking. In my mind, this is why the E/$ moved up last week (the first push north from which to continue buying if the news is good; a higher price from which to sell the crap out of the euro if the news is bad).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...key-judge.html
  • #40,954
  • Jun 9, 2013 8:01pm Jun 9, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Tub, that is great news! Stay focused on what is working for you, and keep growing that account.

Thanks GEfx! Sorry I didn't reply first. I still need to learn to stop taking profit so soon. I have left so much on the table.

Easy to get a bit trigger happy when you have lost so much.


Kinda strange how comfortable I feel now when trading? I got caught short in the second push up before London close Friday. I came out squared and never worried about it at all.

I know Fti will probably warn me about my feeling of comfort, but I refuse to let it affect me. This is business and I can be cold when it comes to that.

Wish you well and thanks for having your journal. Not sure if anything else would have turned on the light.
  • #40,955
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:25am Jun 10, 2013 7:25am
Quoting fti
I GIVE EVERYONE 1 LAST WARNING. NEVER USE LEVERAGE, IS A CON. IF YOU CANNOT LIVE TRADING WITHOUT LEVERAGE, IS YOUR OWN RISK. THE BROKERS ARE VERY CONNISH. regards
Suppose there was a hole, and there was something at the bottom of it. Now anyone who put their hand into the hole and didn't reach the bottom would say the hole was too deep. Out of a hundred or a thousand people putting their hands down that hole, they'd all say the hole was too deep. Not one would say their arm was too short!


Anicca vata sankhara
Impermanent, alas, are all conditions

Uppada vaya dhammmino
Arising and passing away

Uppajjitva nirujjhan'ti
Having been born they all must cease

Tesam vupasamo sukho
The calming of conditions is true happiness


I still remember the link that you give to me,,sir,
thanks
salaam
  • #40,956
  • Jun 10, 2013 9:04am Jun 10, 2013 9:04am
Quoting GEfx
This is very important for all traders this week. The court conducts its hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and while a final ruling is not likely, the process itself will give hits as to where the judges are in their thinking. In my mind, this is why the E/$ moved up last week (the first push north from which to continue buying if the news is good; a higher price from which to sell the crap out of the euro if the news is bad). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...key-judge.html...
You should read gossip columns with pretty girls in it. At least then it would make sense.
  • #40,957
  • Jun 10, 2013 9:47am Jun 10, 2013 9:47am
Quoting piccolo
{quote} You should read gossip columns with pretty girls in it. At least then it would make sense.
LOL -- not sure what that has to do with trading, and am pretty sure it is not why fti started the thread. I'll let you take the lead on that one. Good trading everyone!
  • #40,958
  • Jun 10, 2013 1:57pm Jun 10, 2013 1:57pm
Learned a big lesson today.

NEVER trade from your phone while working. At least not me. Got my butt kicked today trying that.

Oh well, lesson learned.

Hope everyone else made good today.
  • #40,959
  • Jun 11, 2013 2:32pm Jun 11, 2013 2:32pm
Inserted Video


V

havent seen FTI around

V
  • #40,960
  • Jun 11, 2013 3:31pm Jun 11, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrK5u5W8afc V havent seen FTI around V
Ya ... We hope and pray that every thing is ok.
We pray for you chief

Regards;
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