posted this a few days back
broke out one more time today
broke out one more time today
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
- #24,443
- Jun 5, 2013 10:34am Jun 5, 2013 10:34am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #24,445
- Edited Jun 6, 2013 9:13am Jun 5, 2013 3:52pm | Edited Jun 6, 2013 9:13am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
NOT TRADE CALLS - Probably best to do the opposite of what I do! 
(disclaimer that was not a trade call either)
Pending Daily chart shorts for all attached. Entry at 100%, SL at 0% and R:R's are marked. A touch concerned on the GBP based trades because of GU but we will see. Will re-evaluate these trades each night after supper whether triggered or not. Not pure VSA but all entries are volume and spread based and are taking into account what I feel are weak backgrounds and the recent Daily bars PA, closings, volume and spread.
It should be noted that something big is brewing on EU as it has had two straight days where it completed tiny ranges while other pairs were for the most part meeting or exceeding their respective ADR's (edit overall I remain bearish on this bear for now...)
(disclaimer that was not a trade call either)Pending Daily chart shorts for all attached. Entry at 100%, SL at 0% and R:R's are marked. A touch concerned on the GBP based trades because of GU but we will see. Will re-evaluate these trades each night after supper whether triggered or not. Not pure VSA but all entries are volume and spread based and are taking into account what I feel are weak backgrounds and the recent Daily bars PA, closings, volume and spread.
It should be noted that something big is brewing on EU as it has had two straight days where it completed tiny ranges while other pairs were for the most part meeting or exceeding their respective ADR's (edit overall I remain bearish on this bear for now...)
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #24,446
- Edited 4:28pm Jun 5, 2013 4:15pm | Edited 4:28pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #24,448
- Jun 5, 2013 8:20pm Jun 5, 2013 8:20pm
{quote} No Problem...I was just wondering what the VSA look like for this pair. Anyways, it's a risk to take a long at this at this level. I am willing to take a chance at it with a 300 tick stop. To See. It's a risk but it dose looks good to me. Better than 2:1 Risk to Reward. I do know it's a risk to enter when their are no signs of the falling knife stopping.
Lets start with a monthly chart, first sign of weakness was back in July of 2007, which is an UT. Next in Oct of 2007 you have an up bar with big volume (at the time of this bar printing it was the highest volume bar since 2001) with the next bar being a down bar showing us there was a lot of supply in Oct. Fast forward to Aug 2012 there is a 2 bar reversal back at the same level as the UT from July of 2007.
Now look at the massive shake out on Aug 2011, if this pair is going to find support I would suspect it would at either the high of this shakeout or around the close of it, 8630-8800.
Next lets look at daily. We are in a massive down trend there is some big volume coming in, but PA is still very bearish. Usually when we see big volume and bearish PA, usually this is supporting volume, which is some buying but just enough to support price and keep it from dropping like a brick. Any longs at this point I think you would be better off taking your money to a casino and throwing down on a roulette table.
Zooming in on the 1h, notice how you see these big volume down bars, and how price drops below the low of these bars then comes back up to test before price drops again.
- #24,451
- Edited 2:16am Jun 6, 2013 1:18am | Edited 2:16am
Hi everyone, great thread. I just started learning VSA.
My question about EUR/USD H4 Chart.
How to describe this bars in VSA terms? After wide spread high volume up bar we have two high volume bars.
First is big outside bar and second looks like a hidden upthrust.
Is this a sign of weakness or hidden absorption after pushing through (if this is pushing through)?
My question about EUR/USD H4 Chart.
How to describe this bars in VSA terms? After wide spread high volume up bar we have two high volume bars.
First is big outside bar and second looks like a hidden upthrust.
Is this a sign of weakness or hidden absorption after pushing through (if this is pushing through)?
- #24,454
- Jun 6, 2013 3:20am Jun 6, 2013 3:20am
{quote} I wouldn't really say that either of these bars are high volume bars, 4h is a tough TF to start out on, but when dealing with 4h you want to compare the volume with the previous bars at the same time of day. So if you look at those 2 bars, the first bar is a little low, and the second bar is about average. The first bar you marked isn't really anything in VSA, in PA terms its indecision, the second bar is an Up thrust. There is supply on this bar, but it isn't massive supply. So the market may absorb the supply and continue to push through....
Now, I see on the chart - the next bars after are hidden tests (blue triangels on the chart). Is this any hint or it does not matter?
High volume - I mean high volume in this trading range after pushing through.
- #24,455
- Jun 6, 2013 9:13am Jun 6, 2013 9:13am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
It should be noted that something big is brewing on EU as it has had two straight days where it completed tiny ranges while other pairs were for the most part meeting or exceeding their respective ADR's (edit overall I remain bearish on this bear for now...)
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #24,456
- Edited 11:03am Jun 6, 2013 9:59am | Edited 11:03am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #24,457
- Jun 6, 2013 12:18pm Jun 6, 2013 12:18pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #24,458
- Jun 6, 2013 6:20pm Jun 6, 2013 6:20pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
NOT TRADE CALLS - Probably best to do the opposite of what I do!
EJ - Entry 129.584, SL 131.394, TP 1 - 127.774 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 1:1 SL at original but may cut risk in half by moving to 50% line - undecided
UJ - Entry 99.957, SL 100.453, TP 1 - 97.461 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 2:2 and now at BE
GJ - Entry 152.264, SL 153.792, TP 1 - 150.736 hit for 1:1, TP 2 - hit 1:1 SL at original but may cut risk in half by moving to 50% line - undecided
GC - Entry 1.44687, SL 1.45791, TP 1 - 1.43583 open, TP 2 - open --- trade still at full risk
GOLD - This trade was tweaked after I posted as I was not comfortable with the entry nor the SL set-up... Entry was dropped to 1388.71 at the low of the June 23rd NBP, SL set at 1423.70, TP 1 - 1388.71, TP 2 - open --- trade NOT triggered but today was an effort to rise closing again below that UHVWRB daily 50% (white fib on the chart) so I am leaving the pending set.
See what tommorow and NFP brings. Will evaluate again at LO only because of NFP.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
