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Swing trading with heiken ashi and stochs

  • #2,621
  • Jun 5, 2013 6:55pm Jun 5, 2013 6:55pm
Hi thank you for the share , very accurate , honestly i still have proble to detect the signals but i just closed USDJPY with 90 pips ... WOW!!!
Hope people will take this seriously and work as a team to define this !!
  • #2,622
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:31pm Jun 5, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Good pairs for this week are usdcad, gbpchf, cadchf and oil. Wait for a clear signal.
Hi Hugh,
I have a hard time figuring out why you chose these pairs as they do not show a clear signal as I understand it:

CADCHF: Previous week was bearish, which follows the 100sma slope but we are above the 100sma. (this one is the one I'd really like to understand)
USDCAD: No problem here.
GBPCHF: Previous week was bearish, which follows the 100sma slope but we are above the 100sma.

Seems that you waited for the end of "pullback" on the weekly TF but only considering the 100 sma slope rather than every point described in the system rules (smooth pullback, convincing HA turn, trading above/below 100sma,...). I know you mentioned earlier that we can consider more borderline signals on the weekly tf but just wanted to check with you how borderline you consider these ones?

Cheers,
  • #2,623
  • Jun 6, 2013 1:27pm Jun 6, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting veyron
{quote} Hi Hugh, I have a hard time figuring out why you chose these pairs as they do not show a clear signal as I understand it: CADCHF: Previous week was bearish, which follows the 100sma slope but we are above the 100sma. (this one is the one I'd really like to understand) USDCAD: No problem here. GBPCHF: Previous week was bearish, which follows the 100sma slope but we are above the 100sma. Seems that you waited for the end of "pullback" on the weekly TF but only considering the 100 sma slope rather than every point described in the system...
Hello, you are right that the price is above the 100 sma on the cadchf weekly chart but the general direction is down/sideways and the there was a definite turn to the downside so it's something I would consider. Same for gbpchf, the pressure is down on the weekly.

It would take a long time to wait for a completely perfect setup on the weekly chart. All we are trying to do is look for times when the weekly has turned in the right general direction of the weekly trend or turned smoothly enough in a sideways market to give you a clue that there may be a move about to start. We just want to catch those nice long heiken ashi runs on the weekly chart.
  • #2,624
  • Jun 7, 2013 7:24am Jun 7, 2013 7:24am
Hi Hugh
Unfortunately, I just ran across this thread . . . Fortunately , I just ran across this thread. Thank you very much. This is absolutely one of the best threads I've come across since starting to trade 6 months ago. I use the , Heiken Ashi, Parabolic SAR and Moving Average of Oscillator, 50 PIP SL and 20 Pip gain with great success. I will try your set up, like mine yours is nice and simple. Once again thanks and I will look forward to following.
Best Wishes and Continued Success
Gp
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #2,625
  • Jun 7, 2013 1:19pm Jun 7, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting gp00053
Hi Hugh Unfortunately, I just ran across this thread . . . Fortunately , I just ran across this thread. Thank you very much. This is absolutely one of the best threads I've come across since starting to trade 6 months ago. I use the , Heiken Ashi, Parabolic SAR and Moving Average of Oscillator, 50 PIP SL and 20 Pip gain with great success. I will try your set up, like mine yours is nice and simple. Once again thanks and I will look forward to following. Best Wishes and Continued Success Gp
Hi, glad you like the thread. I'm away for a few weeks and so not actively trading, just letting a few trades run. I don't like the sound of the 50 pip stop / 20 pip gain but if it works for you then go for it. It makes sense to me to let your winners run for as long as you can rather than cutting them short. I know that leads to a lot of break evens and giving profits back but you only need the odd 1000 pip trade to convince you that's the way to go.
  • #2,626
  • Jun 7, 2013 2:26pm Jun 7, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
{quote} Hi, glad you like the thread. I'm away for a few weeks and so not actively trading, just letting a few trades run. I don't like the sound of the 50 pip stop / 20 pip gain but if it works for you then go for it. It makes sense to me to let your winners run for as long as you can rather than cutting them short. I know that leads to a lot of break evens and giving profits back but you only need the odd 1000 pip trade to convince you that's the way to go.
Instead of moving the stop up, I just close out the trade and use a pending order to buy/sell back in at the same time one closes I also move the stops up on the subsequent trades I know I'm better off moving the stop, But when I see all the winners, makes me feel better. Haven't had a 1000 pip yet, looking forward to it though
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #2,627
  • Jun 7, 2013 2:35pm Jun 7, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting gp00053
{quote} Instead of moving the stop up, I just close out the trade and use a pending order to buy/sell back in at the same time one closes I also move the stops up on the subsequent trades I know I'm better off moving the stop, But when I see all the winners, makes me feel better. Haven't had a 1000 pip yet, looking forward to it though
So you're closing trades for emotional reasons and reopening for an extra spread? ;-)

When you think about it you could just use the 100 sma to tell you when to get out and hold on to some awesome trades. Of course it doesn't always work but it doesn't always have to...
  • #2,628
  • Jun 7, 2013 2:39pm Jun 7, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
{quote} So you're closing trades for emotional reasons and reopening for an extra spread? ;-) When you think about it you could just use the 100 sma to tell you when to get out and hold on to some awesome trades. Of course it doesn't always work but it doesn't always have to...
Of course you're right. I don't trade the weekend, so first thing Monday Morning I'll make the change. Again thanks
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #2,629
  • Jun 7, 2013 2:43pm Jun 7, 2013 2:43pm
An interesting example is this last month on my demo account. I was about 12% up at the peak and now it's about 2.8% but to be honest I haven't been actively managing it so there may well have been other opportunities that I didn't take that would have bumped up the profit.

Over time my trading has progressed to being all about cutting losers short and letting winners run no matter the consequences. I am a big fan of Donchian Channels and ran a donch channel system for a few months on daily charts that made 20% over the course of those few months. That type of system can see you a long way in profit only to give it all back to break even. That takes patience to run. I like this system on 4 hour charts because it is a similar system but pinpoints when good trends may be about to occur. Over time it comes out well ahead to the tune of an average of about 5% a month. You won't make 5% every month but you'll make 20% some months and nothing on some other months.

It's all about patience and being relaxed and confident with your system. If you have done as much backtesting with this system as I have then you will have the patience to let it come good in the long run and you won't worry about the drawdowns.

Here's a good video that may help...

Inserted Video
  • #2,630
  • Jun 7, 2013 3:27pm Jun 7, 2013 3:27pm
Great to see you still have time to post here Ed, how is the big fund management job going? .......subscribed!
  • #2,631
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:23pm Jun 7, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting stricky1967
Great to see you still have time to post here Ed, how is the big fund management job going? .......subscribed!
Hey, still going well, the old site will be up and running again in a few weeks and you're welcome over there again.
  • #2,632
  • Jun 9, 2013 1:11am Jun 9, 2013 1:11am
I'm going to be out of the country for a few days so won't be managing the open trade at all, just going to leave it. I'm starting with the new account on Thursday anyway. See you when I get back.
  • #2,633
  • Jun 9, 2013 7:32am Jun 9, 2013 7:32am
Have a good trip Hugh and thanks for the video. Everyone should watch it
Gp
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #2,634
  • Edited Jun 13, 2013 4:45am Jun 12, 2013 4:51pm | Edited Jun 13, 2013 4:45am
I'm back. For some reason the demo account has frozen. I asked for an ongoing demo account but it seems it has expired. Anyway, the first shot here is how the cadchf trade looked at the end of last week. The second is what it is looking like now. That might have been a good add on trade when it turned too. The entry was at 0.9337 and the price now is 0.9016 so about 320 pips up. This goes to show that if you want to make money trading forex all you have to do is place your trades and go to Rome for a few days

I'll monitor this cadchf trade and then give a full update of the results of the demo account trading. This won't give a complete picture of what the results would have been as I stopped actively trading it a few weeks ago but it's just to give an idea. It'll be interesting to see the outcome when you consider that out of quite a few trades taken there were essentially only 2 that would have been profitable but the return would have been reasonable.

In the next few days I'll give details of my training/mentoring/copying service. Good to be back, I'm looking forward to getting started.
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  • #2,635
  • Jun 12, 2013 8:01pm Jun 12, 2013 8:01pm
Hehe. I missed that one because of my broker server timezone. Your first bearish weekly candle when you switched to H4 TF was forming a green doji on my side so I decided to wait one more week before jumping in. I only shorted after the second pullback and it is now down 150pips.
I will need to look after that trade manually as the trailing stop won't reach BE before a long time. Also, the price seems to have reached a point where it bounced back up mi april.

Knowing that the price might start to trend up soon and I am not BE yet, I'd like to move my SL in order to secure the trade. Should I move it to BE? I was also thinking, if another HA turn happens, I was considering manually close the trade if one of the pullback candles closes above the previous bullish HA candle from june 12th.

Which option would be best?
  • #2,636
  • Jun 13, 2013 4:18am Jun 13, 2013 4:18am
Quoting veyron
Hehe. I missed that one because of my broker server timezone. Your first bearish weekly candle when you switched to H4 TF was forming a green doji on my side so I decided to wait one more week before jumping in. I only shorted after the second pullback and it is now down 150pips. I will need to look after that trade manually as the trailing stop won't reach BE before a long time. Also, the price seems to have reached a point where it bounced back up mi april. Knowing that the price might start to trend up soon and I am not BE yet, I'd like to move...
If you've got 150 pips profit then the ea should have moved to break even already? The second entry is a good one so I'd hold it until the 100 sma is broken.
  • #2,637
  • Jun 13, 2013 6:37am Jun 13, 2013 6:37am
Quoting Hugh Briss
{quote} If you've got 150 pips profit then the ea should have moved to break even already? The second entry is a good one so I'd hold it until the 100 sma is broken.
Unfortunately not. I shorted at 0.9155. One candle closed at 0.8986 but the "100sma +20 pips" was still way higher than my entry point (more than 100 pips higher).

That's why I doubt it will break even by itself
  • #2,638
  • Jun 13, 2013 10:14am Jun 13, 2013 10:14am
Quoting veyron
{quote} Unfortunately not. I shorted at 0.9155. One candle closed at 0.8986 but the "100sma +20 pips" was still way higher than my entry point (more than 100 pips higher). That's why I doubt it will break even by itself
Ah, ok. When the 100 sma is so far away from your entry I would just use a 2 x ATR stop. 50 or so pips should be ok for this pair. By now you want to be at break even and then just wait for the 100 sma to catch up with your entry and start trailing.
  • #2,639
  • Jun 16, 2013 9:32am Jun 16, 2013 9:32am
I'm going to wait until tomorrow morning (UK time) before I make a final decision on which pairs to trade next week but at the moment I'm looking at a bit of a confusing picture with both eurgbp and gbpchf short. As these are fairly strongly negatively correlated this poses a bit of a problem but I'm already short gbpchf so I'll see how things go and just trade whatever happens. I'm still watching the cadchf trade from the old demo account and that's doing fine.

Over the next few weeks it will be interesting to see what happens with the aud and nzd pairs. Euraud, eurnzd, gbpaud and gbpnzd could all put in some nice moves down. After that it's a question of whether the aud and nzd pairs are going to drop further or whether they are going to bounce back and find continued strength. As ever I'll just be watching and waiting for the next big trend.
  • #2,640
  • Jun 16, 2013 11:12pm Jun 16, 2013 11:12pm
As I thought, not much to watch this week but a few pairs setting up for the future. I'm watching eurgbp and gbpchf for trades and cadchf for the trail on the demo account. One more interesting thing to watch is oil. It's relatively flat at the moment but it is trading at a strong level at 97.50. If it gives a clear move and pullback to that level I would be interested in being long.

I'm still working on the trade copying/training offer but as soon as I have details I will let you know.

I'll update if anything interesting happens with the trades.
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