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  • #521
  • Jun 5, 2013 2:46am Jun 5, 2013 2:46am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} what, you don't like selling naked puts CG? Look at those juicy DUST front month $56 puts still worth $1.50 at $20 otm and gold stuck in a tight range....
i realise that real wealth is created through selling naked puts, so is standing naked selling your self on a street corner when it goes wrong. I try not to leave my self open. I rarely sell stuff these days unless i buy a far otm trade then sell something against to reduce my costs. One day i may go naked all out when i got a body thats worthy of it
  • #522
  • Jun 5, 2013 5:00am Jun 5, 2013 5:00am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} ... Remember that a bear put spread is a debit spread and therefore in Vega positive... So he should only do a debit spread IF he expects volatility to INCREASE during the life of his trade.... Since he is playing sort of a macro view longer term options trade I feel the best directional position is a put ratio spread so that his offset units can neutralize his vega exposure completely.....
Yes indeed but that's what I mentioned that in order a play like that or his original trade he was "assuming"a hard top in equities and sudden "panic" volatility break down very soon which IMO is not on the cards yet ....

The main problem with your suggestion is that he will be exposed to a unlimited risk (theoretical at least because there is really not much room to the other side) from what I understand his trying to just trading very well defined and limited r:r trades ...

In any case, I 100% with you ...don't fight the FED (or any CB) and FED is not really in play this week. Missing the early entry in bonds is never missing the train... we'll see what NFP bring to the table, as long as we don't have an important over or under shoot in expectations ...there is nothing to see except crying wolf from the typical doomers and anti QE's crowd ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #523
  • Edited 7:11am Jun 5, 2013 6:41am | Edited 7:11am
Quoting Cecil Gee
With a small down day today in the markets has put me back in the frame of looking for puts in equities/index/etf options only on weeklys looking for a explosive gamma trade, i'm eyeing spy 161 puts , aig $43 puts spy closed at 163.56 aig closed at 44.10 , i'll only take the trades if i can get them cheap enough or may just wait an extra day. FAZ/FAS are back in play but for them i need a extra day of price data, faz-long and fas/short The one i'm really looking to trade is GDX again, if GDX can close or trade near the closing day tomorrow above...
ALL the bottom text i mean to add to this section, must have clicked edit, oops, read the bottom of post 520.

T.F. read the bit about BAC i wrote yesterday we may have the trade you highlighted on monday, thx
  • #524
  • Jun 5, 2013 9:04am Jun 5, 2013 9:04am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes indeed but that's what I mentioned that in order a play like that or his original trade he was "assuming"a hard top in equities and sudden "panic" volatility break down very soon which IMO is not on the cards yet .... The main problem with your suggestion is that he will be exposed to a unlimited risk (theoretical at least because there is really not much room to the other side) from what I understand his trying to just trading very well defined and limited r:r trades ... In any case, I 100% with you ...don't fight the FED...

If his IRA wont let him have an uncovered naked unit for the ratio spread because they are worried about the unlimited risk that is easily covered by buying a SUPER cheap and way OTM put to turn it into a butterfly spread.... its just an exercise in academics really for the broker since there is pretty much no way that "protective" unit should ever come into play. Either way I dont see a catastrophic collapse and rise in volatility coming soon either... just biz as usual
  • #525
  • Edited 1:19pm Jun 5, 2013 12:27pm | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
The other weekly papertrade I had today was BAC $13.50 puts, bought at $0.12 when BAC was just above the cut at $13.60. Those are going for $0.27 now.
Yep, wisht his one had been for realsies, w $13.50 puts at $0.43 now. Will run to a 4-bagger maybr or more. CG are you in BAC? The $13.00 w puts have come up from $0.05 to $0.11 I see but still may pay well, w/ BAC @ $13.17.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #526
  • Jun 5, 2013 12:40pm Jun 5, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} i realise that real wealth is created through selling naked puts, so is standing naked selling your self on a street corner when it goes wrong. I try not to leave my self open. I rarely sell stuff these days unless i buy a far otm trade then sell something against to reduce my costs. One day i may go naked all out when i got a body thats worthy of it
Well if $113 is the bottom in TLT I will sell front month $110-$112 naked puts til I cancel out what I paid for the Sep $100 Puts, will only need to do that a couple times....will look to do that in week 3 as TLT rises, if that's the deal.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #527
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:37pm Jun 5, 2013 1:37pm
I saw PTL up in here...or maybe I was just dreaming....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #528
  • Jun 5, 2013 6:12pm Jun 5, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} what, you don't like selling naked puts CG? Look at those juicy DUST front month $56 puts still worth $1.50 at $20 otm and gold stuck in a tight range....
Not DUST but NUGT, the Jun 21 $6 puts sell for $3.80. All-time low for NUGT is $8.13.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-06-05_nugt.png Size: 47 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #529
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:21pm Jun 5, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Looking for the pop in VXX, should send the stock market down a another 200-300 hundred points VXX is trading at 19.62, has to maintain above this price for it to happen, tomorrow or wednesday. iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) -NYSEArca 19.62 {image} 0.48(2.51%) 10:53AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price If VXX does thenSPY should move close to 160 if not below, current price is below. 163.41 SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) -NYSEArca 163.41 {image} 0.03(0.02%) 10:55AM EDT - Nasdaq...
well it worked out as orignally planned bit mondays price action did throw me a bit with it finishing stronger.

I'm still waiing in GDX to make up its mind, it finished 29.93. I would like it above 30.05 and hold to buy end of week calls, maybe 31 call strike, waiting game at the moment. Expect some kind of bounce then more volatlity. VXX and VIX had good moves
  • #530
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:22pm Jun 5, 2013 7:22pm
Just scanning thru & looking fr overpriced options to sell.

TSLA is a good one. TSLA was up today when most weree bleeding. $85 Jun 21 puts ($10 otm) sell for $2.30. At $95 though, TSLA is too rich...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #531
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:31pm Jun 5, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
XLF (financial ETF) is indicating a fall taking GS -C - JPM with it, more work need to be done on this, early heads ups
well most financials took a it today and more to come, T.F. good call on BAC. i'm not in bac but i have got my eye on AIG
$43 put, it closed for 19c today. i want ot for 6-8c, so i'm waiting until tomorrows near close
  • #532
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:42pm Jun 5, 2013 7:42pm
AAPL looking vunerable to the downside, looking to do a longer verticle put spread on this, need a little time to work through r-r
  • #533
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:44pm Jun 5, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well most financials took a it today and more to come, T.F. good call on BAC. i'm not in bac but i have got my eye on AIG $43 put, it closed for 19c today. i want ot for 6-8c, so i'm waiting until tomorrows near close
thanks, CG & good luck. I may watch around the open and take a stab at the BAC $13 w puts, but will prolly just keep my powder dry.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #534
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:51pm Jun 5, 2013 7:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} thanks, CG & good luck. I may watch around the open and take a stab at the BAC $13 w puts, but will prolly just keep my powder dry.
yes watch it as there maybe a short bounce, if it closes under 13.22 then it may be good for 13 put, most it could fall to is around 12.70 so if you triple your money be happy with it.
so good luck
  • #535
  • Edited 8:28pm Jun 5, 2013 8:15pm | Edited 8:28pm
Nikkei is up about 0.85% now, but that can change quick after they get back from lunch - like yesterday. Anyway, EWJ $11.00 w calls are just $0.05. Oh, right I was gonna lay off EWJ...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536
  • Jun 5, 2013 8:43pm Jun 5, 2013 8:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Not DUST but NUGT, the Jun 21 $6 puts sell for $3.80. All-time low for NUGT is $8.13. {image}
Well, this is wrong. Knew that had to be 2good2btrue. Jun 22 $10 puts are at $0.55 and goes down from there, $6 puts are $0.05. Not sure where the higher numbers are coming from in the Yahoo site chain but prolly has something to do with the recent stock split.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #537
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:10am Jun 6, 2013 5:10am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well it worked out as orignally planned bit mondays price action did throw me a bit with it finishing stronger. I'm still waiing in GDX to make up its mind, it finished 29.93. I would like it above 30.05 and hold to buy end of week calls, maybe 31 call strike, waiting game at the moment. Expect some kind of bounce then more volatlity. VXX and VIX had good moves
If we finsih in the lows of $29, then puts will be what i'm looking for, it will be interesting to see where TLT closes today
  • #538
  • Edited 1:25pm Jun 6, 2013 1:09pm | Edited 1:25pm
Wild morning, got my proverbial ass kicked all over the spot FX market... my options trades fared much better.

all my condors except my SPY one survived day 1... lost .18 closing that out when SPY broke the 161 handle

closed my 94/104 call ratio spread on FXY when the underlying hit 102 on that big spike for a very nice profit
also closed my aug 167/149 put ratio spread on spy on the move under 161(which was my TG anyways and the directional hedge trade for the condor)


TLT calender/IYR condor and IWM condor still active


no new trades entered today...

lets see if sparky can make it across the street for NFP's tmmrw
  • #539
  • Jun 6, 2013 2:06pm Jun 6, 2013 2:06pm
Just now checking on the markets as was away from web access all morning.

Must have been a high injection number because UNG has taken a 4% dump, and UNG Jul $21 puts that I have been holding for couple months have gone itm. Nat gas did what I thought it would do based on some assumptions about overproduction and mild weather. The big deal with exporting natgas as LNG will inevitably boost the natgas price but that export flush is some time (years) away as there isn't the infratructure yet to get that business done. Nevertheless, I am wary about betting short on nat gas and will prolly cash in the small profit my UNG puts finally are giving up. Will be thinking about a longterm bullish UNG strategery.

My Jul $13 IAU straddle is atm again and if gold would break out above $1,420 the straddle would make some money. Tired of looking at it, may just bail on it if gold falls back into its $1,380 - $1,420 range.

Not thinking about any weeklies at this point, looking forward to the NFP show. Watching TLT with interest. If gold will get moving up I will sell some NUGT puts next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #540
  • Jun 6, 2013 6:49pm Jun 6, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well most financials took a it today and more to come, T.F. good call on BAC. i'm not in bac but i have got my eye on AIG $43 put, it closed for 19c today. i want ot for 6-8c, so i'm waiting until tomorrows near close
not trading no financials tomorrow, will wait until NFP is out before any decision is made
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