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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #81
  • May 31, 2013 5:48am May 31, 2013 5:48am
Thanks for posting your chart Kompi, I appreciate that!

The thing about speedbumps (continuation patterns)...

1. RBR (rally base drop)
2. DBR (drop base rally)

... is that they are good "with the trend".. they are good as Momentum trades, to trade with the momentum and impulses, not when price is already coming from an area where supply took control. I never take Speedbumps in those sceneraios, like this one, most of the times fail, did my forward tests on that.

With the trend having not yet reached opposite D1 SD areas, I will lean on Speedbumps
Against the trend or having the opposing D1 SD areas been hit already, I will not lean on Speedbumps, but at the extreme valleys/peaks (rally base drop and drop base rallies)

That's the way I do it for better or worst, I just follow those simple rules. They will fitler out MANY bad trades, already did.
Alfonso

Quoting kompi
{quote} {image} just below 0.9500 we have a great RBR.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #82
  • May 31, 2013 10:15am May 31, 2013 10:15am
Quoting panoramia
Hey Lawrence! I finally got triggered long on CADJPY on the H4 demand level I missed by 0.3 pips a couple of days ago. There is new H4 supply area right above, which reduced my TP a lot, so I am being more conservative with my TP on this one. I even moved my SL breakeven ahead of time. It's not a good sign for a long. We'll see what happens! Thanks for sharing your screenshots on the thread, I really appreciate it. Alfonso {quote} {image}

This is such a sweet chart. Really shows what can be done with this method. Where the opportunities rest. This is why we trade this method!

Great stuff Alfonso



TSD
  • #83
  • May 31, 2013 10:22am May 31, 2013 10:22am
Quoting panoramia
Thanks for posting your chart Kompi, I appreciate that! The thing about speedbumps (continuation patterns)... 1. RBR (rally base drop) 2. DBR (drop base rally) ... is that they are good "with the trend".. they are good as Momentum trades, to trade with the momentum and impulses, not when price is already coming from an area where supply took control. I never take Speedbumps in those sceneraios, like this one, most of the times fail, did my forward tests on that. With the trend having not yet reached opposite D1 SD areas, I will lean on Speedbumps...
Very nice explanation on trading this specific pattern. This should help many of those answer the question? Why a specific area ( Speedbumps ) did not hold.

For those reading this statement remember::: Think in terms of Probabilities and not Absolutes.

TSD
  • #84
  • May 31, 2013 10:41am May 31, 2013 10:41am
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} Very nice explanation on trading this specific pattern. This should help many of those answer the question? Why a specific area ( Speedbumps ) did not hold. For those reading this statement remember::: Think in terms of Probabilities and not Absolutes. TSD
well said. I couldn't phrase it better. I'll bear that in mind

''Think in terms of Probabilities and not Absolutes'' -TSD
  • #85
  • May 31, 2013 10:48am May 31, 2013 10:48am
Quoting panoramia
Hey Lawrence! I finally got triggered long on CADJPY on the H4 demand level I missed by 0.3 pips a couple of days ago. There is new H4 supply area right above, which reduced my TP a lot, so I am being more conservative with my TP on this one. I even moved my SL breakeven ahead of time. It's not a good sign for a long. We'll see what happens! Thanks for sharing your screenshots on the thread, I really appreciate it. Alfonso {quote} {image}

Nice. you have a clear runner here. the demand zone is sweet-looking and price have bounced up significantly.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130531.png Size: 99 KB


let's see if it can break the above H4 supply
  • #86
  • Jun 1, 2013 5:39pm Jun 1, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting panoramia
Thanks for posting your chart Kompi, I appreciate that! The thing about speedbumps (continuation patterns)... 1. RBR (rally base drop) 2. DBR (drop base rally) ... is that they are good "with the trend".. they are good as Momentum trades, to trade with the momentum and impulses, not when price is already coming from an area where supply took control. I never take Speedbumps in those sceneraios, like this one, most of the times fail, did my forward tests on that. With the trend having not yet reached opposite D1 SD areas, I will lean on Speedbumps...
I joined this forum purely due to the quality of your thread mate.
Great explantion of S+D !
I have watched all the Sam Seiden webinars and found your explanation of the above really helped me tie all my thinking together.

Really hope you make some more videos because the way you explain S+D and the curve in particular is excellent.
Looking forward to the thread growing.
  • #87
  • Jun 2, 2013 4:11pm Jun 2, 2013 4:11pm
Thanks for your kind words Miss5ion, I really appreaciate it! Doing my best to help anybody out there.

I will be making some new videos on other subjects related to supply and demand, very specific videos like:
- Mechanical way to draw levels
- When to stop looking for shorts and start looking for longs, and viceversa
- When to consider a trend broken


Amongst others... but need to find the time to do it... will possible do one tomorrow Monday on how to draw levels. Will be very methodic and specific, leaving no doubts on how to draw them.

Thanks again for reading my thread mate, it's a pleasure!
Alfonso

Quoting Mis5ion
{quote} I joined this forum purely due to the quality of your thread mate. Great explantion of S+D ! I have watched all the Sam Seiden webinars and found your explanation of the above really helped me tie all my thinking together. Really hope you make some more videos because the way you explain S+D and the curve in particular is excellent. Looking forward to the thread growing.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #88
  • Edited 9:49am Jun 3, 2013 4:23am | Edited 9:49am
EUR/USD

price triggered my Sell limit entry. My target is 1.3000; just above H4 demand zone (not really a good zone)

D1 trend is UP a supply had been breached and demand level respected in both D1 and H4.

Hence my SHORT trade will not last long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Update: hours later
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #89
  • Jun 3, 2013 6:30am Jun 3, 2013 6:30am
It looks like a short that could work, the euro is still in a downtrend overall.

That H4 supply are is right at the confluence of a D1 downtrend trendline, you can see it on White on my D1 and H4 screenshots. It's a retest of that D1 trendline right on a H4 supply level, it could work. Since we never know, we have to try. I'm not on that one though, but wish you good luck on that short.

I was waiting for a solid break to the buy side of that area, for which I had an alert (u can see on green color), that H4 supply had not produced a lower low so that's why I was not leaning on it to short. Previous H4 supply areas had been absorbed. So waiting to see if price wants to go higher or absord demand lower.
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #90
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:53am Jun 3, 2013 9:53am
Quoting panoramia
It looks like a short that could work, the euro is still in a downtrend overall. That H4 supply are is right at the confluence of a D1 downtrend trendline, you can see it on White on my D1 and H4 screenshots. It's a retest of that D1 trendline right on a H4 supply level, it could work. Since we never know, we have to try. I'm not on that one though, but wish you good luck on that short. I was waiting for a solid break to the buy side of that area, for which I had an alert (u can see on green color), that H4 supply had not produced a lower low so...

You're right. the H4 supply didnt make a lower low i.e. break a demand zone. The price just merely reacted to the demand zone around 1.29556 region (non-quality demand zone but good for profit target). so actually the H4 supply zone isn't that of good quality. I have to be more careful next time round. Thnks Alfonso
  • #91
  • Jun 4, 2013 4:01am Jun 4, 2013 4:01am
Planning a long on H4 demand zone which I drilled down to H1 demand zone.

I didn't go short on the H4 supply level because the pound had broken a D1 supply area, showing some strenght, and more if you see that we're making higher highs and higher lows. So I'm happy to lean on demand to go long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #92
  • Jun 4, 2013 4:05am Jun 4, 2013 4:05am
I am triggered long on AUDUSD, it's the first impulse to the buy side for weeks I believe, it's now making higher highs and higher lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only thing that worries me is that price has almost made it to the D1 supply area and now bouncing off it, my long is then a bit agressive now and could be a loss, but I've been triggered so I have to let it go and see what happens and learn from it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93
  • Jun 4, 2013 4:09am Jun 4, 2013 4:09am
Took AUDJPY short on a H1 speedbump (continuation pattern). I drilled it down to the M30 area which was a cleaner/clearer area. That speedbump was the retest of last week low (red beads on the chart) solidly broken at 91.12, so I took the risk and so far I'm at breakeven and took some profits out of it, so whatever happens happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #94
  • Jun 4, 2013 10:11am Jun 4, 2013 10:11am
Hi!

I was wondering if you consider zones that are created as direct result of news reliable? My thinking is that while it may be a zone on the chart it is not "real" supply and demand but just news reaction??
I want more brain power!
  • #95
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:56pm Jun 4, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting panoramia
It looks like a short that could work, the euro is still in a downtrend overall. That H4 supply are is right at the confluence of a D1 downtrend trendline, you can see it on White on my D1 and H4 screenshots. It's a retest of that D1 trendline right on a H4 supply level, it could work. Since we never know, we have to try. I'm not on that one though, but wish you good luck on that short. I was waiting for a solid break to the buy side of that area, for which I had an alert (u can see on green color), that H4 supply had not produced a lower low so...
This post cleared a few things up for me, Thankyou. I wasn't paying enough attention to the basics of higher highs/lower lows.
Twitter: @Solve_Forex
  • #96
  • Edited 2:32pm Jun 4, 2013 1:58pm | Edited 2:32pm
News is not important to me, they manipulate retailers most of the time. I won't pay attention to them my swing trading. If I am doing some intraday on lower timeframes (which i rarely do), i will cancel my trades if they are not at higher timeframes sd areas. Else, i will not pay attention to them.

Most of my trades will be based on areas that can be days (sometimes weeks) old, so I will never know if levels were produced by news or not either
Hope that helps
Alfonso

Quoting cfdtaleong
Hi! I was wondering if you consider zones that are created as direct result of news reliable? My thinking is that while it may be a zone on the chart it is not "real" supply and demand but just news reaction??
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #97
  • Jun 5, 2013 2:58am Jun 5, 2013 2:58am
Quoting panoramia
I am triggered long on AUDUSD, it's the first impulse to the buy side for weeks I believe, it's now making higher highs and higher lows. {image} The only thing that worries me is that price has almost made it to the D1 supply area and now bouncing off it, my long is then a bit agressive now and could be a loss, but I've been triggered so I have to let it go and see what happens and learn from it. {image}
Hi panoramia, i saw the trade you took on AUDUSD. looks like it reversed on you. I really like how to stuck to your trading plan though. I am new to forexfactory forums, and i have been reading your posts and looking at your charts. You seem like you have a really good trading plan and understand how to trade price. looks like you take a sam seiden apporach to trading( which i really like and starting to understand the more i trade). the reason i am replying to you is that you i have observed your trading style and appreciate other traders who understand institutional order flows and how to trade price. I have been really trying to understand everthing i can about trading price and finding unfilled orders, so my question is in regards to your long position on the AUDUSD. Do you think it may have reversed on your long position because of how much time it spent at that level (.96330) Even though it has a strong rally from that level(.96330; 96541), do you think it spent to much time there? Also, it can seem odd why someone would want to short the AUDUSD around that area because it is at larger time frame WK demand level. However, if you zoom out on that weekly demand level; price has been there around 4-5 times and is breaking through that Weekly Demand level(.9580 ish area) and continuing to break through that level. Do you think this is why price didnt hold at your AUDUSD long demand level? These are some only questions of why i think it may have not held. What do you think? Hope to learn more from you.
  • #98
  • Jun 5, 2013 3:49am Jun 5, 2013 3:49am
Thanks for your comments, I really appreciate it. Yes, my AUDUSD long went against me but I had a breakeven, which was set to 30 pips, so it was just a breakeven. My rules allowed me to go long there, so I took it. I mentioned though that price has almost made it to the fresh D1 supply area and that might make this strong short-lived or even fail, but my rules allowed me to take it. Most difficult thing is not having a plan but following it. I break it often and that's what I'm working at, like almost every trade out there I guess, controlling emotions.

Price has made it to the D1 supply area on the audusd and supply took control, so longs were not higher odds any more, that's my conclusion. If price had not made it to D1 supply so fast, then it would have been a nice trade whose TP would have been like 15-20 pips below D1 supply. Once price has reached D1 supply or was very close, longs should not be allowed, since supply might be in control. This trade was a bit aggressive, it had not made it to D1 SZ but so close, I was aware of that, took it, had a breakeven which is normally set to 1:5 to 1, others 2:1.

I trade à la Sam Seiden, following OTA rules with some changes I've added to fit my trading style and indicators I've built to help me.

Hope that helps!
Alfonso

Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Hi panoramia, i saw the trade you took on AUDUSD. looks like it reversed on you. I really like how to stuck to your trading plan though. I am new to forexfactory forums, and i have been reading your posts and looking at your charts. You seem like you have a really good trading plan and understand how to trade price. looks like you take a sam seiden apporach to trading( which i really like and starting to understand the more i trade). the reason i am replying to you is that you i have observed your trading style and appreciate other traders...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #99
  • Jun 5, 2013 11:46am Jun 5, 2013 11:46am
I'm a little confused. I'm trying to plot some supply areas but previous price seems to be reacting off of a previous supply area and so on.... until it ends up like a cascade effect and I have no supply for my current area of price. How do you know where to stop moving from S/D to the next?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #100
  • Jun 5, 2013 12:14pm Jun 5, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting Rexz
I'm a little confused. I'm trying to plot some supply areas but previous price seems to be reacting off of a previous supply area and so on.... until it ends up like a cascade effect and I have no supply for my current area of price. How do you know where to stop moving from S/D to the next? {image}
Shouldn't that box be blue? For a demand area, no?
Twitter: @Solve_Forex
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