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Need luck or skill for trading?

  • #41
  • Jun 1, 2013 10:31pm Jun 1, 2013 10:31pm
Quoting sandycarrot
i just wondering ; why people just risking their capital only.......................;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;((;2% or 5% or 10% of its forex trading );;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; in forex trading means that you will have alternate winning and losing then there is a luck factor involved on the other side;;; if anyone would like to open a small restaurant businesses or open a small store (( they would have bet all his money )) (( example they had a $ 1000 K,,put all his money in the business,,)) although there is also a luck factor involved example;; its not...
I agree, this business is no different then a brick and mortar business. Most fail within 5 years, and the risk could be equal............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #42
  • Jun 1, 2013 11:25pm Jun 1, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting forexalien
It is so easy..........! You just wait, which most humans can not do........you wait for price to go to their ex-streams on multiple Time Frames, where you know price will not go much further and trade the other direction. It's that easy !!!!!!!!! Post# 7,007 {image}


This is so true, its not so much skill as it is a requirement for self control.

I would redo the percentages as
50% skill, 40% self control and 10% luck.

The luck part for me isnt really a determinant of succes its more a reduction in the timeframe with which to achieve the success.

Hope this makes sense.
Money never sleeps...
  • #43
  • Jun 2, 2013 8:42am Jun 2, 2013 8:42am
I don't think that any trader can only rely on luck for his success in forex trading. We need to have skills, which only comes after proper knowledge and experience and time spend in real market as trading.
  • #44
  • Jun 2, 2013 9:05am Jun 2, 2013 9:05am
Quoting inpatient
{quote} This is so true, its not so much skill as it is a requirement for self control. I would redo the percentages as 50% skill, 40% self control and 10% luck. The luck part for me isnt really a determinant of succes its more a reduction in the timeframe with which to achieve the success. Hope this makes sense.
I like that , more like 10% skill , 80% self control, 10% luck, but Luck is not required when you are not over margined, Luck is only required when you are betting the Bank not to get margined out.........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #45
  • Jun 2, 2013 9:53am Jun 2, 2013 9:53am
Quoting sandycarrot
i just wondering ; why people just risking their capital only.......................;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;((;2% or 5% or 10% of its forex trading );;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; in forex trading means that you will have alternate winning and losing then there is a luck factor involved on the other side;;; if anyone would like to open a small restaurant businesses or open a small store (( they would have bet all his money )) (( example they had a $ 1000 K,,put all his money in the business,,)) although there is also a luck factor involved example;; its not...

Excellent rebut. There could be a couple of rationals for claiming all skill and no luck. 1) though confounding due to failure from time to time, it may sooth the beast, 2) by claiming you use ONLY skill, it would appear you have the inside track, with superior knowledge.

Your thread sandycarrot(cool name), is exposing a deep seeded weakness in many of us. Thank you:nerd:
  • #46
  • Jun 2, 2013 10:11am Jun 2, 2013 10:11am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} I like that , more like 10% skill , 80% self control, 10% luck, but Luck is not required when you are not over margined, Luck is only required when you are betting the Bank not to get margined out.........

Oh heck yea, margin calls are my Achilles heel. I've bet the farm more times than I'd care to admit. Don't get me wrong, I too want to feel galvanized with strong and time tested skill. But I can assure you, if it hadn't been for Mother Luck, I'd been beached more times than I have.

I know of no other way to gain the critical steal hard skills needed without the process of guessing, betting, pi**ing in the wind and the like, not to forget hard study and inventing. After all, my Creator created me in His image, as a creator myself. And there is this caveat, if we don't PRAY for wisdom, we wont GET wisdom. Amen
  • #47
  • Jun 2, 2013 10:15am Jun 2, 2013 10:15am
Quoting hedging
I don't think that any trader can only rely on luck for his success in forex trading. We need to have skills, which only comes after proper knowledge and experience and time spend in real market as trading.

Absolutely. Otherwise we'd all be doing binary options
  • #48
  • Jun 2, 2013 11:41am Jun 2, 2013 11:41am
Quoting angelofx
Not a lot difference between gambling and forex. Look up how to be a successful gambler and you'll think you're reading a book or article on forex trading because it teaches the same principles: adequate bankroll, Money management, loss limit, profit target etc. Gambling is not luck as most seem to believe. There are pro gamblers and you wont even stand a chance against them (if it's not your thing)even if you're merely throwing dice. The market is designed in such a way that only few will succeed. You need info not available to all to succeed but...
I have to comment on this, because you make a compelling case. All the women in my life have what is endearingly referred to as "women's intuition". Well, I can tell you for certain there is more to that than meets the eye. I could swear some of these women are prophetesses. Like intuition, instinct is a special insight, but unlike intuition, it develops like a skill, yet it is more. How effective our intuition becomes depends on what focus we maintain. When experienced investors tell me they wait for confirming price action to enter, I scratch my head thinking I'm almost ready to get out as they are getting in. When first trading on intuition, it feels as though you've stepped out into a crowd naked. Indeed, I used to think if this is what it takes, I'd rather go fishing. Those thoughts have long since gone. Like anything else we practice, intuition strengthens. I'd pause before calling it a skill any more than I'd call my faith in God as such. Don't imagine I'm referring to any success or lack thereof in my personal trading, I just know what makes me feel positive and desiring to trade.
  • #49
  • Jun 2, 2013 1:27pm Jun 2, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting sandycarrot
{quote} but the lower the time-frame that you trade, the more skilful you need to be. agree,,and THX .S.C.
Indeed and without any DOUBT !

If someone asks me to select a better trader between 2 traders,
with same Profits,
in same period,
with same starting equity,
with one being a short TF scalper trader & other a long TF trader,
i would choose the scalper without any HESITATION
So a short TF scalper(esp. one scalping the basic PA ) is far more skillful (esp. extreme volatility & allied events) than that other guy with same or even a bit better trading profits.

So overall the conditions/questions asked in 1st post are bit not to the point.
Its like :
If trading using big timeframe ( monthly / weekly / daily ) and remaining profitable = Need skill
If trading using small time frame ( m1 / m5 / m15 / m30 ) and remaining profitable = Need more skill

- Luck is something you create for yourself with a plan.

- As long as you are investing in almost any entity, there is always a "RISK"
and as long as there is "RISK", having luck is always a nice cherry on the top
or
In Short- "Luck is temporary; Risk management is a permanent"

Hope this helps.




P.S.
- The short TF trader is being called a scalper here as price movements on short TF are often small and total no. of entries and exists on small TF are proportionately large as compared to large TF trader
- Emotion management, disciplined plan execution, etc are all part of "SKILLS" of a manual trader.
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #50
  • Jun 2, 2013 4:14pm Jun 2, 2013 4:14pm
Luck is preparation meets opportunity. In trading its all about knowledge. The one with most information will do better. Analyze the charts and fix your mindset. MM is paramount.
  • #51
  • Jun 2, 2013 8:05pm Jun 2, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting forexsaint
{quote} Indeed and without any DOUBT ! If someone asks me to select a better trader between 2 traders, with same Profits, in same period, with same starting equity, with one being a short TF scalper trader & other a long TF trader, i would choose the scalper without any HESITATION So a short TF scalper(esp. one scalping the basic PA ) is far more skillful (esp. extreme volatility & allied events) than that other guy with same or even a bit better trading profits. So overall the conditions/questions asked in 1st post are bit not to the point. Its...

love your quotes sir,

If trading using big timeframe ( monthly / weekly / daily ) and still remaining profitable in overall = Need skill

If trading using small time frame ( m1 / m5 / m15 / m30 ) and still remaining profitable in overall = Need more skill

In Short- "Luck and bad days is temporary; Risk management is a permanent"

( forexsaint )


salaam
  • #52
  • Jun 3, 2013 12:07am Jun 3, 2013 12:07am
I wonder if anyone would answer that he doesn't need any skill on Forex and still want to be professional here
Knowledge and experience is the first thing you need here.
dcny, I think that "woman intuition" may be useful in offline business, but on Forex rational thinking is more welcome.
  • #53
  • Jun 3, 2013 3:48am Jun 3, 2013 3:48am
Quoting forexsaint
{quote} Indeed and without any DOUBT ! If someone asks me to select a better trader between 2 traders, with same Profits, in same period, with same starting equity, with one being a short TF scalper trader & other a long TF trader, i would choose the scalper without any HESITATION So a short TF scalper(esp. one scalping the basic PA ) is far more skillful (esp. extreme volatility & allied events) than that other guy with same or even a bit better trading profits. So overall the conditions/questions asked in 1st post are bit not to the point. Its...

agreed,,THX THX,
S.C.
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #54
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:42am Jun 3, 2013 10:42am
For a more successful trading experience is necessary for any period of time. When you do this for more than 7 years, you look at the chart intuitively know about where the price will go. And over time, you begin to realize that all of these indicators and systems on the Internet are worth nothing, the price - the main indicator.
  • #55
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:56am Jun 3, 2013 11:56am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} The Big Players have it harder than we do, they are moving large monies at a time and trying to stay in front of larger money that may appear at anytime...........IMO
Well, we "small players" just flounder about in the waves created by big players. I would agree with Gumrai, that they have more information and power to affect the market, than we, who try to catch every shiver and predict where tide will go.
  • #56
  • Jun 3, 2013 12:28pm Jun 3, 2013 12:28pm
90% skill 10% luck
  • #57
  • Jun 3, 2013 4:14pm Jun 3, 2013 4:14pm
90% luck 10% skill
  • #58
  • Jun 3, 2013 7:21pm Jun 3, 2013 7:21pm
ha ,ha ,ha,
very exciting,,very exciting THX

Red Herring
90% skill 10% luck


Mingary
90% luck 10% skill
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #59
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:28pm Jun 3, 2013 10:28pm
Quoting FerruFx
Trading require skill. Gambling require luck.
I would say both require skill. In both cases we are trying to quantify the probabilities of winning. The only difference is that probabilities in gambling are typically static ex. roulette, and the probabilities in trading are subjective and dynamic.

I like both but obviously prefer to trade :nerd:
THERE IS AS YET INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR A MEANINGFUL ANSWER.
  • #60
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:47pm Jun 3, 2013 10:47pm
Quoting emanontrader
{quote} I would say both require skill. In both cases we are trying to quantify the probabilities of winning. The only difference is that probabilities in gambling are typically static ex. roulette, and the probabilities in trading are subjective and dynamic. I like both but obviously prefer to trade :nerd:

sensible words

S.C.
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
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