Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Post #40,861
Quote
Edited Jun 3, 2013 5:17am Jun 2, 2013 10:44pm | Edited Jun 3, 2013 5:17am

cuthbert
| Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 734 Posts

Quoting fti

Disliked

{quote} For all fairness to you. you seem have difficulty understanding ROI on var and ROI on assets. you begining sound like the conish acedemics. how can any one be doing few hundred % ROI on assets? superman? you still not understand money management? trade(risk) ROI vs assets ROI? from your question already is very clear you not understand mm. fo newbies, is understandable they not ubderstand. how long have you been following thread, and you doing CFA? comeon. you was only one here mentioned var. and you the one asking? then i question your...

Ignored

Thanks for highlighting the difference. The intent was all good.

regards

btw i also an ACCA if designations/salutations do matter.

Post #40,862
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 6:52am Jun 3, 2013 6:52am

simpleman
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Member | 786 Posts

Quoting fti

Disliked

{quote} For all fairness to you. you seem have difficulty understanding ROI on var and ROI on assets. you begining sound like the conish acedemics. how can any one be doing few hundred % ROI on assets? superman? you still not understand money management? trade(risk) ROI vs assets ROI? from your question already is very clear you not understand mm. fo newbies, is understandable they not ubderstand. how long have you been following thread, and you doing CFA? comeon. you was only one here mentioned var. and you the one asking? then i question your...

Ignored

.Thanks chief, I keep my trading very simple which keeps me away from lots of stresses from knowing what others are doing. When there are some good days I make 5-10% when there are average days I make 0.50-1% when therearen't good days I make none. I just keep my mm within my limits so that not over exposed to unnecessary risk.

When it goes up I buy when goes down I sell and this is it to the trading no other analysis, when stuck I take the loss.

No point of going for %, every one has different account size and risk tolerence, my account size is in $1000s so if I make 100% p.a. wouldn't make me super trader compared to the ones who have millions/billions and making 20%. So the one who made 20% on millions/billions is super trader i.e. soros.

Apart form the above I just trade only 1 pair EURUSD and my battles are little longer which gives me flexibility to strategies well with my open positions.

Hope you are doing good chief. Cuth is our friend he just want to learn every thing.

hope Cuth is doing well in trading as well but shouldn't be applying CFA/ACCA on trading as trading is different beast with lots of interest from central bankers and institutions.

P.S.
If my total assets are i.e. 1m and my trading account is 100k and I made 100k gains then it is 100% on 100k trading account but on total assets it is 10%.

Post #40,863
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 11:32am Jun 3, 2013 11:32am

indianguyinny24
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,993 Posts

Quoting simpleman

Disliked

{quote} .Thanks chief, I keep my trading very simple which keeps me away from lots of stresses from knowing what others are doing. When there are some good days I make 5-10% when there are average days I make 0.50-1% when therearen't good days I make none. I just keep my mm within my limits so that not over exposed to unnecessary risk. When it goes up I buy when goes down I sell and this is it to the trading no other analysis, when stuck I take the loss. No point of going for %, every one has different account size and risk tolerence, my account...

Ignored

I still have to come to day when i can make 10% in a day....someday i will...the MM is not there yet....

V

Post #40,864
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 12:37pm Jun 3, 2013 12:37pm

-Michael-
| Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 494 Posts

Hey Guys !!!
How is everybody doing ?
I see all are talking here such a big daily returns so i wanted just to make a little math
Here are compound interest :
Lets take 5% return per day and account of 100 $ do you know that after 100 days you will have 12500$

Lets take 10% return per day and account of 100 $ do you know that after 100 days
Guess how many ??? DRUMSSSSS It is just a 1.250.000$

Now Lets go in a more realistic way

Lets take 1% return per day and account of 1000 $ do you know that after 100 days you will have 2678 $

I know that not every day is a winner
So Just Ponder on this subject. Can you realy do it and consistantly ?
regards
Michael

Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI

Post #40,865
Quote
Edited Jun 4, 2013 9:22am Jun 3, 2013 12:50pm | Edited Jun 4, 2013 9:22am

liqidone
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: l | 120 Posts

Quoting fti

Disliked

{quote} 2 ships arrived. 1 landed sg, half of that ship made way north to sitawan, half stayed in sg. The other ship sailed arrived at sibu. These the only left. After battle foochow in fuzhou, none original household still stands. Mine family from main foochow well. mandarins. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDALrT0gRAk regards

Ignored

The battle has many analogies to the market. Command Structure,Earth,Deception,Preservation of Fire Power,Timing,Fear and courage to handle that fear....

It is a beautiful place I hope to visit some time... it is not far.

I often wonder how the men of then would view the men of today...

Respectfully

Post #40,866
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 1:04pm Jun 3, 2013 1:04pm

simpleman
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Member | 786 Posts

Quoting indianguyinny24

Disliked

{quote} I still have to come to day when i can make 10% in a day....someday i will...the MM is not there yet.... V

Ignored

yes V, those 5-10% a day are rare but 0.5-1% are common. Sometimes traders are loaded with positions and we see sudden move in the same direction as positions and this is where big gains come.

Post #40,867
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Jun 3, 2013 1:28pm Jun 3, 2013 1:28pm

indianguyinny24
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,993 Posts

Quoting -Michael-

Disliked

Hey Guys !!! How is everybody doing ? I see all are talking here such a big daily returns so i wanted just to make a little math Here are compound interest : Lets take 5% return per day and account of 100 $ do you know that after 100 days you will have 12500$ Lets take 10% return per day and account of 100 $ do you know that after 100 days Guess how many ??? DRUMSSSSS It is just a 1.250.000$ Now Lets go in a more realistic way Lets take 1% return per day and account of 1000 $ do you know that after 100 days you will have 2678 $ I know that not every...

Ignored

after 3-4 years i cant tell you how much % i make a daily....sometime it is little sometime i have to fight like hell and sometime it pours...

cant tell u in no... and i dont sit thinking i will make this much % in nos...i just try to see market and change my MM as per what i feel like...and after 4 yuears i am still learning..
V

Post #40,868
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 1:41pm Jun 3, 2013 1:41pm

-Michael-
| Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 494 Posts

Quoting indianguyinny24

Disliked

{quote} after 3-4 years i cant tell you how much % i make a daily....sometime it is little sometime i have to fight like hell and sometime it pours... cant tell u in no... and i dont sit thinking i will make this much % in nos...i just try to see market and change my MM as per what i feel like...and after 4 yuears i am still learning.. V

Ignored

Hey IndianGuyInny
I think this learning thingy never ends.
We all the time learn something ...
Michael

Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI

Post #40,869
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 4:43pm Jun 3, 2013 4:43pm

piccolo
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts

Quoting -Michael-

Disliked

Hey Guys !!! How is everybody doing ? I see all are talking here such a big daily returns so i wanted just to make a little math Here are compound interest : Lets take 5% return per day and account of 100 $ do you know that after 100 days you will have 12500$ Lets take 10% return per day and account of 100 $ do you know that after 100 days Guess how many ??? DRUMSSSSS It is just a 1.250.000$ Now Lets go in a more realistic way Lets take 1% return per day and account of 1000 $ do you know that after 100 days you will have 2678 $ I know that not every...

Ignored

fairy tales

Post #40,870
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 4:44pm Jun 3, 2013 4:44pm

piccolo
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts

Quoting fti

Disliked

{quote} For all fairness to you. you seem have difficulty understanding ROI on var and ROI on assets. you begining sound like the conish acedemics. how can any one be doing few hundred % ROI on assets? superman? you still not understand money management? trade(risk) ROI vs assets ROI? from your question already is very clear you not understand mm. fo newbies, is understandable they not ubderstand. how long have you been following thread, and you doing CFA? comeon. you was only one here mentioned var. and you the one asking? then i question your...

Ignored

I like when you are mad. You spill a lot of gems.

Post #40,871
Quote
Edited 4:59pm Jun 3, 2013 4:49pm | Edited 4:59pm

piccolo
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts

Quoting WootWoot

Disliked

Supposed to be studying for my exams but just cant stay off the markets hah

Trade safe guys!!

Ken

Ignored

It is very addictive. Like gambling.. have you ever studied in a casino?

Post #40,872
Quote
Jun 3, 2013 4:56pm Jun 3, 2013 4:56pm

indianguyinny24
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,993 Posts

Quoting piccolo

Disliked

{quote} It is very addictive. Like gambling.. have you ever studied in a casino?

Ignored

All true you are saying....

V

Post #40,873
Quote
Jun 4, 2013 3:46am Jun 4, 2013 3:46am

786 trading
| Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Student | 603 Posts

Good morning chief

How are you and how is your health. We all pray for you and respect you and love you.

You are great man and we wish you be always happy in every aspect of life.

Post #40,874
Quote
Jun 4, 2013 4:50am Jun 4, 2013 4:50am

ukmanthailan
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 1,004 Posts

Are we looking at the same charts?

I just wondered, if anybody cares to share, what charts you are all looking at when trading. I look at the 5 minute charts for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CHF on my main screen. Then I have the 15M, 1H, 4H and Daily GBP/USD charts on another monitor, which I glance at from time to time to keep an eye on the bigger picture. I did have Brent Crude, Gold, FTSE-100, SP-500, AUD/USD and USD/CAD on a third monitor for a week or two but I found that it was a bit too much so I don't have them open any more. Instead I usually have an animated children's video on the third monitor for my daughter...doesn't help much with reading the market but she seems to like it.

My 5M charts show the last nine hours price action; basically if you go to the smallest candle size and click the enlarge button 3 times, that's where I'm at.

(I'm trading in GBP/USD nearly all the time, which is why I have the longer charts for cable rather than EUR open)

Any thoughts or comments?

Cheers

Post #40,875
Quote
Jun 4, 2013 5:24am Jun 4, 2013 5:24am

GEfx
Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,477 Posts

Quoting ukmanthailan

Disliked

Are we looking at the same charts? I just wondered, if anybody cares to share, what charts you are all looking at when trading. I look at the 5 minute charts for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CHF on my main screen. Then I have the 15M, 1H, 4H and Daily GBP/USD charts on another monitor, which I glance at from time to time to keep an eye on the bigger picture. I did have Brent Crude, Gold, FTSE-100, SP-500, AUD/USD and USD/CAD on a third monitor for a week or two but I found that it was a bit too much so I don't have them open any more. Instead...

Ignored

Hi ukman, hope you and your family are well. I work up 15 pairs each day, then try to narrow that down to 4-6 pairs that I am interested in. My 6 pairs today are now on 1H charts as I wait for a trade set up that matches my market analysis. When that happens, I drop down to a 10M chart for entry. I also have Dow, US Dollar Index, and oil charts that I check from time to time. I have an IE window on FF and CNBC to keep an eye on news. Right now, I am listening to iTunes radio. Take care and good trading!

Post #40,876
Quote
Jun 4, 2013 5:29am Jun 4, 2013 5:29am

ukmanthailan
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 1,004 Posts

Quoting GEfx

Disliked

{quote} Hi ukman, hope you and your family are well. I work up 15 pairs each day, then try to narrow that down to 4-6 pairs that I am interested in. My 6 pairs today are now on 1H charts as I wait for a trade set up that matches my market analysis. When that happens, I drop down to a 10M chart for entry. I also have Dow, US Dollar Index, and oil charts that I check from time to time. I have an IE window on FF and CNBC to keep an eye on news. Right now, I am listening to iTunes radio. Take care and good trading!

Ignored

Thanks GEfx, I hope you and your family are well too. I'd like the dollar index open somewhere but neither of the brokers I use have it.

Post #40,877
Quote
Jun 4, 2013 7:13am Jun 4, 2013 7:13am

Acs_112
| Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 190 Posts

Quoting ukmanthailan

Disliked

Are we looking at the same charts? I just wondered, if anybody cares to share, what charts you are all looking at when trading. I look at the 5 minute charts for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CHF on my main screen. Then I have the 15M, 1H, 4H and Daily GBP/USD charts on another monitor, which I glance at from time to time to keep an eye on the bigger picture. I did have Brent Crude, Gold, FTSE-100, SP-500, AUD/USD and USD/CAD on a third monitor for a week or two but I found that it was a bit too much so I don't have them open any more. Instead...

Ignored

I pretty much look at the same as you but i also like to look at the EUR/GBP just to decide if im going to trade on the GBP/USD or EUR/USD. I only have just woken up but after i quick glance it looks like USD weakness again today, So I like to take a quick look at the EUR/GBP and can see that the EUR is getting stronger against the GBP, So i would expect the EUR to have smoother and bigger moves. The GBP is getting weaker against the EUR so it may stall it a just a little on its way up. Not as smooth and nice a ride. So im probably going to be in the EUR today but things can change in heartbeat.

And if the USD starts to gain strength I would expect that extra weakness in the GBP to then give it the better and smooth ride etc.

Just my thoughts and observations.

Post #40,878
Quote
Edited 9:37am Jun 4, 2013 7:39am | Edited 9:37am

ukmanthailan
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 1,004 Posts

Quoting Acs_112

Disliked

{quote} I pretty much look at the same as you but i also like to look at the EUR/GBP just to decide if im going to trade on the GBP/USD or EUR/USD. I only have just woken up but after i quick glance it looks like USD weakness again today, So I like to take a quick look at the EUR/GBP and can see that the EUR is getting stronger against the GBP, So i would expect the EUR to have smoother and bigger moves. The GBP is getting weaker against the EUR so it may stall it a just a little on its way up. Not as smooth and nice a ride. So im probably going...

Ignored

Cheers - I have the EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF in my market watch window and I do look at EUR/GBP to see what it's doing but I try to get a feel for the relationship by watching / comparing the two against the dollar.

Edit: I'm well out of sync today. Lucky to get out with a miniscule profit.