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Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior - by FibStalker

  • #41
  • May 30, 2013 3:44pm May 30, 2013 3:44pm
Aside from the book, do you know of any sources where I can shed some light on dinapoli levels?
  • #42
  • May 30, 2013 4:42pm May 30, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting biDc
Aside from the book, do you know of any sources where I can shed some light on dinapoli levels?
@biDC, I have a few articles on the blog related to HFT. Among those there should be links to DiNapoli's web site, do not have it on top of my mind: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/?s=Articles+HFT

You can check it there. Also look for DiNapoli's videos on YouTube.

Hope this helps.
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #43
  • May 30, 2013 5:15pm May 30, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting fibstalker
If the 1.2918 level of stop-loss holds we could see 1.300 (1st target) and even 1.3045. To fail shorts price must continue to keep moving higher in extensions.
Hello all,
this is today's (May 30th) review for the EUR/USD. Notice that I always reference the Euro FX currency futures because that is what I trade. The videos also relate to the futures contract unless differently stated:

Yesterday I wrote about a possibility for Euro to keep moving higher and today the Euro delivered. The Euro continued higher piercing that 1.3047 level, meaning that the offer coming in the area above the 1.3000 and to that level is now gone, out of the market. Price also dipped well within the next and last area of offer (before the larger 1.3240), starting in the 1.3020 area and ending above 1.3076.

If the 1.3078 level is pierced on the upside (and I anticipate that happening, but do not know it for sure) I will not be interested in swing shorts any more. Price would then be set to retest the 1.3240 for the second time, and we know that second tests are dangerous tests. The retest of that area is especially important because bears will need to decide whether they will keep their swing short positions initiated around the 1.3240 area, or will let the market continue higher, by covering shorts.

I won’t be there with my position to test that. I will exit shorts above 1.3078. If we break the 1.3078 level we are not likely to go up into the 1.3240 area in a straight fashion. We will move there not before we get some sort of price retrace. I have identified an important anchor (level from which I trace the Fibonacci studies to identify price structure and setups in the current market conditions) and that is the 1.2880 level. This level is being used by Program Trading at the moment and I suspect it will still be important after/if price breaks above 1.3078 and in case we continue higher into and through the 1.3240 area and price breaks the 1.3357 level.

If the 1.3357 level breaks bears will be all gone into the woods and the Euro will have again an opportunity and free way to move all the way into the 1.41 area in the coming weeks/months.

Here is the link to my blog where you can find the usual video-analysis and forecast for the Euro: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

I am always interested to your thoughts.

Thank you
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #44
  • May 30, 2013 5:19pm May 30, 2013 5:19pm
Here's a Dinapoli template. I don't use it but it's good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dinap.png Size: 40 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Dinapoli.tpl   2 KB | 423 downloads
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #45
  • May 30, 2013 5:24pm May 30, 2013 5:24pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
Here's a Dinapoli template. I don't use it but it's good. {image} {file}
Hello Slim Buffett,
welcome to the thread. Thanks for sharing the template. I suppose that is for MetaStock? I use Tradestation and happy to have no indicators (besides a 20-bar SMA) on my charts. But if you find the same template for Tradestation I will be happy to make it available for download to other readers of the thread.

Thank you for stopping by and should you have any question on what has been written so far, do not hesitate to ask.

Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #46
  • May 30, 2013 5:25pm May 30, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} The Euro is well on its way onto the 1.2530 target. -fibstalker
"The best laid plans of mice and of men often go awry"

It must be those damn pivots ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wut.gif Size: 25 KB
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #47
  • May 30, 2013 5:38pm May 30, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} "The best laid plans of mice and of men often go awry" It must be those damn pivots ? {image}
Thanks for reminding that to me Slim. Of course I assume you do follow all my analysis and don't pick just one sentence.
I assume you know I am a swing trader and you have read the analysis of April the 30th which you can find here (http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...glish-language ) and know I am short from 1.3240 area.

Are all my assumptions valid?

have a great eve
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #48
  • May 30, 2013 6:04pm May 30, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} Of course I assume you do follow all my analysis
Actually, I don't (and won't). I just do my thing, right or wrong.



Quoting fibstalker
{quote} I assume you know I am a swing trader
Actually, I don't know anything about you. I simply decided to "browse" and
there you were.

Quoting fibstalker
{quote} Are all my assumptions valid? have a great eve -fibstalker
You know what they say about "assume". It makes an ass of u, me. (I'm usually the ass)
But I didn't really mean to get under your skin. I was just dropping by and I wish you
the very best.

Happy Trading
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #49
  • Edited May 31, 2013 10:46am May 30, 2013 6:06pm | Edited May 31, 2013 10:46am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Actually, I don't (and won't). I just do my thing, right or wrong. {quote} Actually, I don't know anything about you. I simply decided to "browse" and there you were. {quote} You know what they say about "assume". It makes an ass of u, me. (I'm usually the ass) But I didn't really mean to get under your skin. I was just dropping by and I wish you the very best. Happy Trading
Slim, the same to you. I am happy if you drop by again. If you have anything interesting and helpful for all to say I would be more than happy.

(edited added) BTW, my assumption was just that an assumption, not an ass u me... it was just plain english. Sorry for that!

All the best
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #50
  • May 31, 2013 7:36am May 31, 2013 7:36am
Quoting fibstalker
I have identified an important anchor (level from which I trace the Fibonacci studies to identify price structure and setups in the current market conditions) and that is the 1.2880 level. This level is being used by Program Trading at the moment and I suspect it will still be important after/if price breaks above 1.3078 ...
The 1.2880 (on Euro FX currency futures) and 1.2877 (on EUR/USD spot) worked well again. Tracing from this level to yesterday's highs in the Euro gave this morning bounce higher. A level to be kept in mind of the future.

Chat to you later
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #51
  • May 31, 2013 10:16am May 31, 2013 10:16am
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} The 1.2880 (on Euro FX currency futures) and 1.2877 (on EUR/USD spot) worked well again. Tracing from this level to yesterday's highs in the Euro gave this morning bounce higher. A level to be kept in mind of the future. Chat to you later -fibstalker
With the failure on the downside of the extension long from 1.2880 to highs (price below 1.2950) the Euro short is back in play with a first target in 1.2695 and second target right at that 1.2530 target.

I will show this in the chart/video.

Chat to you later.
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #52
  • May 31, 2013 11:53am May 31, 2013 11:53am
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} With the failure on the downside of the extension long from 1.2880 to highs (price below 1.2950) the Euro short is back in play with a first target in 1.2695 and second target right at that 1.2530 target. I will show this in the chart/video. Chat to you later. -fibstalker
Hello all,
this is an update for the Euro. I am providing a view of the major levels I am following. Hope it is clear. Should you have any questions do not hesitate to ask.

The area between 1.3240 and 1.3357 is a short area. Here bears were clearly interested in selling. Their continued action was able to keep moving price down into the support area below. Bears will be gone if price moves above 1.3357 (level c). The short setup has targets at 1.2530.

The area between 1.2910 and 1.2800 has acted as a support for prices twice and we cannot exclude it will act again as support, but we cannot be certain. That area of demand will only disappear after price moves below 1.2714 (level b). Target for all the participants in this area of support is 1.41. Such target will only be confirmed if we manage to move above 1.3358 (level c).


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_trading_plan_daily_20130531.png Size: 63 KB


Today bears defended the next measured move lower, from May 1st highs to mid-may lows and this is a sign they are still around. Particularly they defended the 1.3078-80 level (level a). Above such level there would be the high probability of retesting the 1.3240 area, the short area for the bears and possibly the challenge to the 1.3357 (level c). On the other hand if price stays below 1.3080 (level a) and moves below 1.2715 (level b), the target for the bears will be confirmed at 1.2530.

So still everything is open in the Euro and I will wait the current situation to resolve before committing on the long side (I am still short and I will be below 1.3078, as mentioned yesterday). The levels to watch on the daily/weekly are those specified (a, b and c). Those levels are not going to change whatever price does, and you know the meaning I attach to them.

Hope this helps. Later on on the blog I will post a video featuring both the Euro and the Dollar Index.

Chat to you later
-fibstalker.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #53
  • May 31, 2013 1:22pm May 31, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} Hello all, this is an update for the Euro. I am providing a view of the major levels I am following. Hope it is clear. Should you have any questions do not hesitate to ask. The area between 1.3240 and 1.3357 is a short area. Here bears were clearly interested in selling. Their continued action was able to keep moving price down into the support area below. Bears will be gone if price moves above 1.3357 (level c). The short setup has targets at 1.2530. The area between 1.2910 and 1.2800 has acted as a support for prices twice and we cannot...
Please, find the video related to today's review of the Euro and Dollar Index on my blog:

http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Let me have your comments.
Thanks

Chat to you later.
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #54
  • May 31, 2013 4:05pm May 31, 2013 4:05pm
Once again thank you for your contribution fibstalker.

A few questions if you don't mind. First and foremost is how do you manage your trades? For example, would the short at 1.3026 level be taken? And if so, how is it managed once entered? If stopped out as priced moved past level a, would another short be taken if price moves back to 1.3240? I guess this eventually leads to the question of how do you know which level for initiating trade or just for confirmation?

Is there a reason you choose to trade futures contract over spot?

I notice your older videos you perform analysis on a few spot forex pairs, how many pairs do you trade? Or is it strictly euro futures now?

Do you primarily trade in the higher time frames?

On the topic of HFT, I assume these are prevalent in highly liquid markets. Do you see this concept working in crude oil futures (in the lower time frame?)

Thanks!
  • #55
  • Edited 6:59pm Jun 1, 2013 10:55am | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting biDc
Once again thank you for your contribution fibstalker. A few questions if you don't mind. First and foremost is how do you manage your trades? For example, would the short at 1.3026 level be taken? And if so, how is it managed once entered? If stopped out as priced moved past level a, would another short be taken if price moves back to 1.3240? I guess this eventually leads to the question of how do you know which level for initiating trade or just for confirmation? Is there a reason you choose to trade futures contract over spot? I notice your older...
@biDC, you are welcome. Here are my best answers to your questions.

Quoting biDc
First and foremost is how do you manage your trades? For example, would the short at 1.3026 level be taken?
I would see two ways to manage the trades:
1) as a swing trader (and I am one), you would take a short at the 50% level with a front-run, and a 1% stop above the failure level 1.3080
2) as a day trader you would take it near the 50% level with a stop above highs, after a sequence of measured moves higher on the 1min or 244TICK chart has failed. This is what I call Fibonacci Stalking (from which FibStalker), a timing technique I have introduced to reduce risk. It applies to resistance/support levels identified with any methods.

Having traded the 1.3240 short I personally would not trade the 1.3026 level, but use it as a confirmation.

Quoting biDc
And if so, how is it managed once entered?
Stay until the 1.3078 level is pierced and then exit. See my last reviews on the Euro.


Quoting biDc
If stopped out as priced moved past level a, would another short be taken if price moves back to 1.3240?
That would be very risky. It's a second test we will not know if that level will hold the shorts. So I would not take the short there. Occasionally I would hedge an opposing long (for instance at the 1.2910, which is the largest long 50% level, but I don't have such a position at the moment)

Quoting biDc
I guess this eventually leads to the question of how do you know which level for initiating trade or just for confirmation?
The largest daily/weekly levels are the most reliable. As you go down to the lower timeframes levels are less reliable. Sensitivity comes by applying the method and studying the reaction, but there are rules to follow as well.

Quoting biDc
Is there a reason you choose to trade futures contract over spot?
Better slippage management and limit orders, but painful rollover when needed. I like to swing and rollover it's not needed very often.

Quoting biDc
I notice your older videos you perform analysis on a few spot forex pairs, how many pairs do you trade? Or is it strictly euro futures now?
I specialize in the Euro and only trade it but like to analyze Pound, Aussie, Canadian. Japanese Yen CB intervention recently made that market dodgy.

Quoting biDc
Do you primarily trade in the higher time frames?
I love the daily, very reliable with my method. Real money is in the big trends.

Quoting biDc
On the topic of HFT, I assume these are prevalent in highly liquid markets.
HFT has no role in my method. This is a class of algorithmic trading that I study closely because I try to avoid its effects on the markets. Also I am against HFT. If you trade the daily and the 4H charts you should not have any issues with HFT. I study Program Trading, another class of algorithmic trading, and from observations on its effect on price I derived my edge.

Quoting biDc
Do you see this concept working in crude oil futures (in the lower time frame?) Thanks!
The concept works on all markets having big volume because Program Trading is there and its algorithms evolved coherently with the psychology of the markets (fear and greed and related market price behaviors). I would use it in oil on the larger timeframes daily/weekly. However oil is a highly manipulated market, like gold and I would personally avoid it, because application on the method on it may be iffy. A bit like for the USD/JPY at the moment.

Hope this helps.
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #56
  • Jun 2, 2013 12:09am Jun 2, 2013 12:09am
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} @frz, thanks will definitely do it. It's important to underline that the risk % is not only related to what we are comfortable with, but should relate also to the reliability of our trading method. More often than not, traders do not know the reliability (% wins versus total) of the method they trade, also because the method is very often just an interpretation of market action through a number of TA tools, that are "known to work". Understanding risk means understanding what we are trading. When we have proof of consistency and reliability...

thanks fibs.
well explained, i learn a lot from your post.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #57
  • Jun 2, 2013 6:51am Jun 2, 2013 6:51am
Quoting frz
{quote} thanks fibs. well explained, i learn a lot from your post.
Very happy to hear that. Have a great weekend.

Ciao
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #58
  • Jun 2, 2013 9:09am Jun 2, 2013 9:09am
Hello traders,
I have an announcement for you all.

I am proud to tell I have been invited as a guest speaker from Dale Pinkert next Monday June 3rd. Dale is a trader with almost 40 years of experience, who got his start in the trading business as a runner on the floor of the CME in 1975. If you are interested you can find the details on my blog:

http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...june-3rd-2013/

Have a great weekend.
Ciao

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #59
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:15am Jun 4, 2013 12:15am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello traders, I have an announcement for you all. I am proud to tell I have been invited as a guest speaker from Dale Pinkert next Monday June 3rd. Dale is a trader with almost 40 years of experience, who got his start in the trading business as a runner on the floor of the CME in 1975. If you are interested you can find the details on my blog: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...june-3rd-2013/ Have a great weekend. Ciao -fibstalker
Damn just missed it. Subscribed to this thread and will be following your personal blog. Look forward to learning a little bit about how you view the markets.
THERE IS AS YET INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR A MEANINGFUL ANSWER.
  • #60
  • Jun 5, 2013 6:29am Jun 5, 2013 6:29am
Quoting emanontrader
{quote} Damn just missed it. Subscribed to this thread and will be following your personal blog. Look forward to learning a little bit about how you view the markets.
Hello emanontrader,
welcome to the thread and thanks for joining.

No, you haven't It's recorded: http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/33766117

Enjoy it.

Chat to you all soon.
Cheers
-fibstaker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
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