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  • #461
  • May 31, 2013 4:31pm May 31, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
lots of volatilty on its way, check your vix charts
HELLYEAH lookin forward to it. I have been watching the weekly options price moves and will keep papertrading them, see the potential, just need to be more disciplined about my picks.

Lackluster week for me tho, lost money, thought I'd get in the green on my IAU straddle, gold moved but in a circle, back where it was all week, fckin $1,38x, right in the middle of my straddle.

Near the end of the day bought some $100 TLT Sep '13 $100 puts for $0.58. Bond bubble.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #462
  • May 31, 2013 4:37pm May 31, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} HELLYEAH lookin forward to it. I have been watching the weekly options price moves and will keep papertrading them, see the potential, just need to be more disciplined about my picks. Lackluster week for me tho, lost money, thought I'd get in the green on my IAU straddle, gold moved but in a circle, back where it was all week, fckin $1,38x, right in the middle of my straddle. Near the end of the day bought some $100 TLT Sep '13 $100 puts for $0.58. Bond bubble.
T.F. IAU has no movement in its daily range, only trade ranges that EXCEEDS strike prices.

Example TLT can move $2 in a day and its strike prices are a dollar APART so therefore it stands to reason that TLT will pass a strike price thus creating GAMMA

Makes sense?
  • #463
  • Edited 4:57pm May 31, 2013 4:45pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. IAU has no movement in its daily range, only trade ranges that EXCEEDS strike prices. Example TLT can move $2 in a day and its strike prices are a dollar APART so therefore it stands to reason that TLT will pass a strike price thus creating GAMMA Makes sense?
Yup, makes sense - helps to have the $0.50 strike cuts, too, will try to play those. Gonna take a while, will be narrowing down my list of likely suspects. Seems like you were really busy here the last 2-3 days - is that typical, waiting til Wed or later to start getting into your positions?

Also, do you do anything different on known high volatility days (NFP, FOMC, etc) - do you plan for those?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #464
  • May 31, 2013 6:41pm May 31, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yup, makes sense - helps to have the $0.50 strike cuts, too, will try to play those. Gonna take a while, will be narrowing down my list of likely suspects. Seems like you were really busy here the last 2-3 days - is that typical, waiting til Wed or later to start getting into your positions? Also, do you do anything different on known high volatility days (NFP, FOMC, etc) - do you plan for those?
FOMC days are the better of most high volatility days but you plan for all, generally if i get a win for 5x+ i don't usually take any more positions, i planning new strategies thats why i took more trades this week
  • #465
  • May 31, 2013 6:51pm May 31, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} HELLYEAH lookin forward to it. I have been watching the weekly options price moves and will keep papertrading them, see the potential, just need to be more disciplined about my picks. Lackluster week for me tho, lost money, thought I'd get in the green on my IAU straddle, gold moved but in a circle, back where it was all week, fckin $1,38x, right in the middle of my straddle. Near the end of the day bought some $100 TLT Sep '13 $100 puts for $0.58. Bond bubble.
that is a long way down and if the correlation with s/p continues that would take s/p past 1700+, i would look to sell tlt 108 june puts against them crediting you 23c. If those puts expire worthless then do the same for july this will lower your $0.58c and eventually hopefully get your trade for free, Understand your risk talk to your broker to see if can work for you
  • #466
  • May 31, 2013 7:54pm May 31, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} that is a long way down and if the correlation with s/p continues that would take s/p past 1700+, i would look to sell tlt 108 june puts against them crediting you 23c. If those puts expire worthless then do the same for july this will lower your $0.58c and eventually hopefully get your trade for free, Understand your risk talk to your broker to see if can work for you
Thanks CG, yes I am thinking along those lines & waiting for another bounce in TLT, if it comes. TLT dropped $9-10 in the last 30 days & I don't think it will do 3x that in the next 100 days or so but I could see another 10-15 by September. We'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #467
  • May 31, 2013 8:27pm May 31, 2013 8:27pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} that is a long way down and if the correlation with s/p continues that would take s/p past 1700+
http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...y-arrived.aspx

So, the favored scenario is that the economy has turned the corner, so bond rates and the stock markets can rise together. As they have done over the last month. Oh yeah right and USD strength, too. If that's the mo, then look for weakness in commodities and stocks that lean on their high dividends, etc. Of course, there are so many wild cards, anything can happen.

"Paul Krugman discussed this in a recent post on his blog, The Conscience of a Liberal."
[W]hen long-term interest rates rise, there are three main stories you hear. One is that the bond vigilantes have arrived, and are selling U.S. debt because they now believe in the horror stories. Another is that the Fed has changed, that it may be ready to snatch away the punch bowl sooner than previously believed. And the third is that the economy is looking stronger than expected, which means that the Fed, although just as soft-hearted as before, will nonetheless start raising rates sooner than previously believed.

All three of these stories would imply falling bond prices, that is, rising interest rates. But they have different implications for other markets, in particular for stocks and the dollar. Debt fears -- basically, a run on America -- should send stocks and the dollar down along with bonds. A perceived tougher Fed should send stocks down but the dollar up. And a better recovery should send both stocks up (because of higher expected profits) and drive the dollar higher. ...

And while day by day there are variations, basically what you see over the last month or so is [the third option]: falling bond prices accompanied by rising stocks and a rising dollar. So this looks like a story about macroeconomic optimism.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #468
  • Jun 1, 2013 6:29am Jun 1, 2013 6:29am
XLF (financial ETF) is indicating a fall taking GS -C - JPM with it, more work need to be done on this, early heads ups
  • #469
  • Jun 1, 2013 6:45am Jun 1, 2013 6:45am
T.F. / Wulfgar , interesting video yesterday

Inserted Video
  • #470
  • Jun 1, 2013 6:57am Jun 1, 2013 6:57am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Thanks CG, yes I am thinking along those lines & waiting for another bounce in TLT, if it comes. TLT dropped $9-10 in the last 30 days & I don't think it will do 3x that in the next 100 days or so but I could see another 10-15 by September. We'll see.
Bond Convexity

Inserted Video
  • #471
  • Jun 1, 2013 9:58am Jun 1, 2013 9:58am
pull up a list of stocks with the highest dividends and pick one, see what it did in the last month, with tnotes sliding hard. REIT's and other bond-intensive funds have slid along with treasurys. Will look thru them....not sure if any better for options trading than TLT & TBT....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-06-01_MTGE.png Size: 22 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #472
  • Jun 1, 2013 10:10am Jun 1, 2013 10:10am
hey there guys, just wanted to stop in and say good job on the thread. Im a new trader myself. been researching forex and options the last year or so but now its time to get serious. Still debating if I should focus forex or options, any advise?

Im going to barnes and noble today to see if they carry those two books you mentioned, should teach me more about options and everything as a whole.
  • #473
  • Jun 1, 2013 10:45pm Jun 1, 2013 10:45pm
psyops in effect

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/02/yo...oofinance&_r=0
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #474
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:58am Jun 3, 2013 9:58am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} VXX is so important next week, watch it guys, it has tremendous movement
Looking for the pop in VXX, should send the stock market down a another 200-300 hundred points
VXX is trading at 19.62, has to maintain above this price for it to happen, tomorrow or wednesday.

iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
-NYSEArca
19.62 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.48(2.51%) 10:53AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

If VXX does then SPY should move close to 160 if not below, current price is below. 163.41

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
-NYSEArca
163.41 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.03(0.02%) 10:55AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #475
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:08am Jun 3, 2013 10:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
XLF (financial ETF) is indicating a fall taking GS -C - JPM with it, more work need to be done on this, early heads ups
Financials are already down today but this is just taste of whats to come this week, traders of stocks in these be careful
  • #476
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:16am Jun 3, 2013 10:16am
I don't like to trade this early in the week but I do have a signal for GDX call option

tricky areas just above 30.93

i'm a little late but gonna go for $32 call, i'm trying to get it for 12c but its trading at 13-14 at the moment.

GDX Jun 2013 32.000 call (GDX130607C00032000)
-OPR
0.13 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.06(85.71%) 10:47AM EDT

GDX is trading at 30.29


Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
30.29 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.79(2.69%) 11:15AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #477
  • Jun 3, 2013 1:02pm Jun 3, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Looking for the pop in VXX, should send the stock market down a another 200-300 hundred points VXX is trading at 19.62, has to maintain above this price for it to happen, tomorrow or wednesday. iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) -NYSEArca 19.62 {image} 0.48(2.51%) 10:53AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price If VXX does then SPY should move close to 160 if not below, current price is below. 163.41 SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) -NYSEArca 163.41 {image} 0.03(0.02%) 10:55AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
HI CG ...wow an actual trading thread in FF ...lol ... good to see you guys around...

IMO, watch-out gauging volatility with the same risk profile of the last financial crisis as those scenarios are long gone. Calling a top via VXX although make sense and tempting in some circumstance I don't think is necessarily the primarily trigger right now.... be careful we don't get 170.xx before sub 160xx ... Trading a top at all the time highs is definitively not in my books, especially on a expectation of profit taking at the highs leg ...

GL but I see better bang for the buck via treasuries if you want to play that move...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #478
  • Jun 3, 2013 1:26pm Jun 3, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Financials are already down today but this is just taste of whats to come this week, traders of stocks in these be careful
If you're right, BAC $13.00 puts might be good on the weekly, @ $0.07 now.

Still need gold to break above $1,430 or so - can it put together any kind of multi-day run?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #479
  • Jun 3, 2013 1:26pm Jun 3, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} HI CG ...wow an actual trading thread in FF ...lol ... good to see you guys around... IMO, watch-out gauging volatility with the same risk profile of the last financial crisis as those scenarios are long gone. Calling a top via VXX although make sense and tempting in some circumstance I don't think is necessarily the primarily trigger right now.... be careful we don't get 170.xx before sub 160xx ... Trading a top at all the time highs is definitively not in my books, especially on a expectation of profit taking at the highs leg ... GL but...
Hey sisse

good to have your expertise in this thread and would like to thank ( The Fool) for starting it. I understand your comments, thats why I need to see price sustained at those levels i mentioned on VXX for today and tomorrow. VXX has a backwardation criteria with it being a future and i gauge it against VIX. normally going back 3 years everytime VXX pops you see an increased sell off in VXX sending SPY further up, this time its allignment with other volatility indexes is uncanny, check out FAZ/FAS. VXX has to trade above 19.62 for this to work. Don't get me wrong i'm not calling a top bacause i don't think it is yet, if VIX was at 9 or under then I may but its a strategy i use for increased gamma trading. Please check the thread and comment us thanks.
  • #480
  • Jun 3, 2013 1:32pm Jun 3, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} HI CG ...wow an actual trading thread in FF ...lol ... good to see you guys around..... sisse
Good to see you here, bud, hope you'll stop by to chew the fat anytime. I am shorting the 10yr note via TLT $100 puts, way out in Sep, just a gamble...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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