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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,841
  • Edited May 31, 2013 12:18am May 30, 2013 11:56pm | Edited May 31, 2013 12:18am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Great job staying with the fight. I don't believe it should take that long to recover though. I have had battles like that myself. so I understand.
Thanks Mr Kho and Mike.

No, it probably shouldn't have taken me that long to recover but as it's a new account and larger than I am used to, I did not want to take too many risks. I downsized my position sizes and took my time. Until I have foreign capital to play with, I feel a bit nervous to be honest. If I had traded at my normal size and made more errors, I would have found it difficult to maintain a steady mindset I think.

By the way, Mike, thanks for the Trading and Exchanges link, I found that interesting. You do know that that's only about 15% of the whole book though? I checked it out on Amazon and it's £45 for the kindle version - too much for a book that is 11 years old IMO. Only $34.99 if you are American though!!

I bought a book called, "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates" quite a while ago but it is heavy going. Some interesting parts but I would have to revisit my Maths education to fully understand the whole book.

---------------------

Small rant: It makes me really angry that so many US based companies overcharge UK clients massively. What's the point of a global economy, electronic books and Internet retailers if I have to pay twice as much for books as people in the USA? Software and hardware vendors are just as bad. Grrrrr! When I developed software it was cheaper for me to order physical books (big heavy technical books) from Amazon US and have them shipped to the UK than to buy them from a UK vendor (including Amazon UK). And they talk about global warming....

I ordered a pair of Dr Marten boots online a while ago because it was cheaper for me to buy them from a UK firm and have them shipped to Thailand than to buy them here (in Thailand). The funny thing was, when I opened the box to see my pair of iconic British boots (yeah, I know they were originally designed in Germany) I saw a made in china label on the insoles. This is what tariffs and duties do to international markets. Those boots were made in China, sent to the UK and then back to Thailand for me to wear. What a waste of fuel.

End rant (sorry)
  • #40,842
  • May 31, 2013 12:50am May 31, 2013 12:50am
I thought this was funny (from the Trading and Exchanges book)

The Brazilian Straddle:

excerpt:

When traders know that they are technically bankrupt, they have nothing
to lose by massively increasing their positions. If prices change so that their
positions make money, they may escape their financial problems. If prices
change against them so that they lose even more, those who guarantee
their trades will suffer the losses.


A trader who uses this strategy is said to hold a Brazilian straddle. A
Brazilian straddle consists of a large market position held against a oneway
airline ticket to Brazil in the breast pocket. If the market position proves
profitable, the trader sells the ticket and comes back to trade tomorrow. If
the trader continues to lose, he runs off to Brazil and leaves his clearing
member to clean up the resulting mess.

------------------------------

I suppose you could have variations on this theme, such as the Bangkok Straddle. But people might misunderstand what you meant if you told them you had a Bangkok straddle!
  • #40,843
  • May 31, 2013 6:59am May 31, 2013 6:59am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Thanks Mr Kho and Mike. No, it probably shouldn't have taken me that long to recover but as it's a new account and larger than I am used to, I did not want to take too many risks. I downsized my position sizes and took my time. Until I have foreign capital to play with, I feel a bit nervous to be honest. If I had traded at my normal size and made more errors, I would have found it difficult to maintain a steady mindset I think. By the way, Mike, thanks for the Trading and Exchanges link, I found that interesting. You do know that that's...
I see. Makes sense to take it easy when entering new territory.

Yeah, I knew that pdf wasn't the whole thing. Thought it might help someone though. Plus it was free.
  • #40,844
  • Edited 8:09am May 31, 2013 7:50am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting liqidone
Hoping good health is with you. {image}
2 ships arrived. 1 landed sg, half of that ship made way north to sitawan, half stayed in sg.
The other ship sailed arrived at sibu.
These the only left. After battle foochow in fuzhou, none original household still stands. Mine family from main foochow well. mandarins.

Inserted Video


regards
  • #40,845
  • May 31, 2013 10:57am May 31, 2013 10:57am
This is doing for me lots good. health wise.
I repost in hope may be useful for friends here.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_dmYT83ZKY

Inserted Video




regards
  • #40,846
  • Jun 1, 2013 3:00am Jun 1, 2013 3:00am
Quoting fti
this is doing for me lots good. Health wise. I repost in hope may be useful for friends here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_dmyt83zky http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0ju03cgfru regards

很多很多的改變生活的訊息尊重

many, many life changing messages,


Respect.

Thankyou
  • #40,847
  • Jun 1, 2013 6:13am Jun 1, 2013 6:13am
Hey FTI and Friends !!!
Hope everybody enjoing their weekends !

Is there any reading or maybe some book to learn about accumulation/distribution
All the market participatns the Big Ones as i understand have to accumulate or distribute.

I try to ponder on this subject. Big players can see the order flow in from this understand where
the market suppose to go. So they accumulate on some level and when the market go their way the distribute with profit.
I think that Stop Hunting is one of the accumulation phase
and the price that stalls in the same box for some time is accumulation.
But we cant know it for sure only to suspect and read the price as it comes.
So my question is if someone here already thought on this subject ?
If it is off topic then i will erase this post in order not to cluster the TAF Thread.
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,848
  • Jun 1, 2013 7:27am Jun 1, 2013 7:27am
Quoting -Michael-
Hey FTI and Friends !!! Hope everybody enjoing their weekends ! Is there any reading or maybe some book to learn about accumulation/distribution All the market participatns the Big Ones as i understand have to accumulate or distribute. I try to ponder on this subject. Big players can see the order flow in from this understand where the market suppose to go. So they accumulate on some level and when the market go their way the distribute with profit. I think that Stop Hunting is one of the accumulation phase and the price that stalls in the same...
I don't recall Fti saying anything about accumulation & distribution. That should tell you enough. Anyway, all that stuff is pretty much the same girl in a different dress.

Focus on just tthe things that Fti has told us too and don't waste time on anything else. I did early on and just prolonged learning the right stuff.
  • #40,849
  • Jun 1, 2013 4:39pm Jun 1, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} This is why you study chart patterns. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends was recommended. Have you read it? For example, a head and shoulders formation is a visual representation of distribution and a rounding bottom one of accumlation. I'm not 100% sure but I think fti's fat ladies may be analogous to round bottoms, on the short charts. I myself pay particular attention when I see a pendulous bosom appear on the screen. But then I don't know what I'm talking about so best to ignore me I think.
ego is still looking for "a foothold"
  • #40,850
  • Jun 1, 2013 4:54pm Jun 1, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Thank you for your valuable comments. I'm bored of this this. Bye.
I'm sorry that I have not fulfilled your fantasy.
  • #40,851
  • Jun 2, 2013 4:21am Jun 2, 2013 4:21am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} I don't recall Fti saying anything about accumulation & distribution. That should tell you enough. Anyway, all that stuff is pretty much the same girl in a different dress. Focus on just tthe things that Fti has told us too and don't waste time on anything else. I did early on and just prolonged learning the right stuff.
Hi my friend tub, i did, search about waterpump actions early in the thread.
but this market makers bread & butter.so i will not eleborate on the subject, does nothing for retail.

For retsil , whats important is the manner of the accumulation and the distribution thru the teirs.
which bring the point ot the patterns.
continuation and congestion patterns. These tells what happening to the risk profile over the teirs.
tells if the volume of impulse is hitting impasses or is cutting thru the tiers like hot knife on butter.
or if som Cbs cats are frying.


Inserted Video

regards
  • #40,852
  • Jun 2, 2013 4:36am Jun 2, 2013 4:36am
Quoting -Michael-
Hey FTI and Friends !!! Hope everybody enjoing their weekends ! Is there any reading or maybe some book to learn about accumulation/distribution All the market participatns the Big Ones as i understand have to accumulate or distribute. I try to ponder on this subject. Big players can see the order flow in from this understand where the market suppose to go. So they accumulate on some level and when the market go their way the distribute with profit. I think that Stop Hunting is one of the accumulation phase and the price that stalls in the same...

Nope.
There no books that can cover this subject with any justice.
You learn that from seeing how the market makers readjust strategies accomodate the change in terrain.
Is a bag of tricks. Very Big bag.
Learn from interraction.

If you peruse the artical posted recently on Soros positions on how he managed the aud event. You should be able see his genius in his shielding his positions of attack and fading the runs. Soros is not the only big boy in town, there's many.But one must take hats off to soros, his blade was swift, accurate and unforgiving. Masterpiece, a master trader at his best. He's done this many times and made much tarders history. Still not elludes him at 82, real masterful.

regards
  • #40,853
  • Edited 5:00am Jun 2, 2013 4:47am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting fti
{quote} Nope. There no books that can cover this subject with any justice. You learn that from seeing how the market makers readjust strategies accomodate the change in terrain. Is a bag of tricks. Very Big bag. Learn from interraction. If you peruse the artical posted recently on Soros positions on how he managed the aud event. You should be able see his genius in his shielding his positions of attack and fading the runs. Soros is not the only big boy in town, there's many.But one must take hats off to soros, his blade was swift, accurate and unforgiving....
6% roi for 2 days?
you want work out his ROI annually if he doing this regularly?
you pray very hard that he not have to do this too regularly.
but really he not need to at his size.

you anualise a ROI performance and you spit at some of the best money managers in the world. The best can only manage nearly 7% annually on a good year.
can't stand on the same platform and talk about ROI. can they?
the best i managed do in my career was +-400% annually over a 4 years period, but that was with lots firepower backing and leverage powers and foreign cap.
i not want live like that again, but is certainly not a flok.

regards.
  • #40,854
  • Jun 2, 2013 6:19am Jun 2, 2013 6:19am
Quoting fti
{quote} 6% roi for 2 days? you want work out his ROI annually if he doing this regularly? you pray very hard that he not have to do this too regularly. but really he not need to at his size. you anualise a ROI performance and you spit at some of the best money managers in the world. The best can only manage nearly 7% annually on a good year. can't stand on the same platform and talk about ROI. can they? the best i managed do in my career was +-400% annually over a 4 years period, but that was with lots firepower backing and leverage powers and foreign...
hello friends how do you do. I hope everyone is fine and healthy.
is nice see get discussion going on accumulation distribution, orderflow and performance evaluation.
especially about chief's performance.
wow 400% in 4 years. is excellent stuff. hmmm chief can i know about the performance of your peers.

regards
  • #40,855
  • Jun 2, 2013 11:45am Jun 2, 2013 11:45am
Quoting fti
{quote} Nope. There no books that can cover this subject with any justice. You learn that from seeing how the market makers readjust strategies accomodate the change in terrain. Is a bag of tricks. Very Big bag. Learn from interraction. If you peruse the artical posted recently on Soros positions on how he managed the aud event. You should be able see his genius in his shielding his positions of attack and fading the runs. Soros is not the only big boy in town, there's many.But one must take hats off to soros, his blade was swift, accurate and unforgiving....
Thank you for your answer FTI.
Hope you feeling good
I hear you loud and clear " Learn from interraction" .
Back to the Learning Phase and an ants job
best wishes
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,856
  • Jun 2, 2013 12:00pm Jun 2, 2013 12:00pm
Hey Guys
In the spirit of this thread want to bring back some posts on the accumulation and distribution
This post talking about saucer shapes - link- and one post before the sketch of FTI very interesting.

And here is a link that i found on the net with the same subject

http://www.guppytraders.com/gup347.shtml

and another one

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php...lysis:wyckoff2

and the same from another info

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/I...wyckoff-method

I know it is a very complex subject and as FTI said we have to learn from the interaction.
Just wanted to share
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,857
  • Jun 2, 2013 2:29pm Jun 2, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Hi my friend tub, i did, search about waterpump actions early in the thread. but this market makers bread & butter.so i will not eleborate on the subject, does nothing for retail. For retsil , whats important is the manner of the accumulation and the distribution thru the teirs. which bring the point ot the patterns. continuation and congestion patterns. These tells what happening to the risk profile over the teirs. tells if the volume of impulse is hitting impasses or is cutting thru the tiers like hot knife on butter. or if som Cbs...

Thanks. That clears things up a bit. Maybe I should read the thread again.
  • #40,858
  • Edited 4:24pm Jun 2, 2013 3:08pm | Edited 4:24pm
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} hello friends how do you do. I hope everyone is fine and healthy. is nice see get discussion going on accumulation distribution, orderflow and performance evaluation. especially about chief's performance. wow 400% in 4 years. is excellent stuff. hmmm chief can i know about the performance of your peers. regards
cuth, my friend, 1 thing i must highlight to you.
Since you doing your CFA, otherwise i not really bother tell you.
Your ability read comprehend and analyse , seriously you out of line.
is just few simple words.
+- 400% ANUALLY over 4 years period.
eventhis little thing eludes you, so what do you want to talk about in terms of analysis of the complex markets.

The thingy that really gets on my tail, is you have cheek ask about my peers.
Just for your education. All dealers remunerations and performance packages are marked to performance.(is based on $ quantum not ROI)
SO if a certain benchmark performance is achieved, if the boss not pay enough, there are always other paymasters in market place.
SO what does knowing this do for you?
Pls try tame you ego alittle , otherwise i see you not any possibility of even get a toe into the industry , with or without a CFA.
If someone volunteers some infomation try analyse it and not sound so egoistical as to ask rediculous questions.
The point that was made is in regards to the 6% in 2 days performance by soros.
is no accident is all skills, and risk managing.

If you think very carefully , you very OT on what i posted forbenchmarking knowledge.

regards


understand also that doing 400% for 4 years for a few million position and 400% for doing 1 billion usd is very different. Is easy talk about market making for a couple billion , but trading a billion is not the same stuff. The man's got balls of titanium.
so please not get your tail so high up, please. Alos try understand the the difference between trading and market making, these are world's apart stuff.
This the reasons why i tell you peeps about over gearing so much. So pls spare talk about these from acedemic point of view. Your display of ignorance is very glaring.
  • #40,859
  • Edited 4:11pm Jun 2, 2013 3:59pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting fti
{quote} cuth, my friend, 1 thing i must highlight to you. Since you doing your CFA, otherwise i not really bother tell you. Your ability read comprehend and analyse , seriously you out of line. is just few simple words. +- 400% ANUALLY over 4 years period. eventhis little thing eludes you, so what do you want to talk about in terms of analysis of the complex markets. The thingy that really gets on my tail, is you have cheek ask about my peers. Just for your education. All dealers remunerations and performance packages are marked to performance....
For all fairness to you.
you seem have difficulty understanding ROI on var and ROI on assets.
you begining sound like the conish acedemics.
how can any one be doing few hundred % ROI on assets? superman?

you still not understand money management?
trade(risk) ROI vs assets ROI?
from your question already is very clear you not understand mm.
fo newbies, is understandable they not ubderstand.
how long have you been following thread, and you doing CFA? comeon.

you was only one here mentioned var. and you the one asking?
then i question your intent ask about peer performance.
if you truely not understand , ask simpleman, he ACCA, he can explin to you.
  • #40,860
  • Jun 2, 2013 9:39pm Jun 2, 2013 9:39pm
Quoting fti
{quote} cuth, my friend, 1 thing i must highlight to you. Since you doing your CFA, otherwise i not really bother tell you. Your ability read comprehend and analyse , seriously you out of line. is just few simple words. +- 400% ANUALLY over 4 years period. eventhis little thing eludes you, so what do you want to talk about in terms of analysis of the complex markets. The thingy that really gets on my tail, is you have cheek ask about my peers. Just for your education. All dealers remunerations and performance packages are marked to performance.(is...
Just wanted post something after a long time.
I will be careful in the future. Just wanted to know the compensation arrangements in the industry.

thats all

regards

level 2 exam went well. may the hardwork be rewarded.
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