Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 4 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #61
  • May 24, 2013 3:24am May 24, 2013 3:24am
Quoting panoramia
I was waiting to go short on CADJPY at a nice fresh H4 speedbump supply (drop-base-drop) on H4 near a retest of that broken upslope trendline, missed it by few pips for now. Holding my limit sell order since level was not touched touched, price hit last week low (red beads) and dropped fast from there. I have a long trade down below at a fresh H4 demand level at the D1 proximal line. Depending on what basing candles you use to determine the base of that 4H rally at D1 demand, the level will be considered hit or not on the aproach to the right. If...
Ways to mark the level differ ofc, but in fact it's just a matter of TF. Switching to daily will force to mark the level as a red box (level for long)
  • #62
  • May 24, 2013 3:28am May 24, 2013 3:28am
On EURCAD, D1 trend is up and supply is being absorbed clearly now, what before I considered a 4h speedbump demand too high in the curve, now it's not that high because supply has been absorved.

The H4 speedbump demand is the cleareast demand area to go long at after supply has been broken. We do have profit margin now for 3:1 or more with a 11 pips + wiggle + spread risk, so it's a good place to set a limit buy order at.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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That D1 rally could become a speedbump deamand (rally-base-rally), but I want that downslope trendline to be solidly broken to lean on it, since now there is not 3:1 profit margin. If trendline is broken, then I will set a limit order at the D1 speedbump, only 23 pips wide. At the moment my long entry is right below that area because I do have profit margin to go long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4_eurcad.png Size: 121 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #63
  • May 24, 2013 3:31am May 24, 2013 3:31am
Yes, I do have that D1 demand area painted, it's seen on my H4 chart with the green trendlines using my rectangle extender indicator, that's why I didn't post the D1 chart, which I have done just now on this reply.

That D1 has too much trading in the zone, the only nice level I liked was that H4 demand level on my previous message. Then my next try at a long will be down lower at 91.12, a D1 demand right at Monthly Demand area.



Quoting romant
{quote}Ways to mark the level differ ofc, but in fact it's just a matter of TF. Switching to daily will force to mark the level as a red box (level for long)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64
  • May 24, 2013 3:36am May 24, 2013 3:36am
Dear Alfonso,

I discovered your thread only yesterday but already your indi help me a lot to have the "bird view" wich is SO important in trading !
MUCHAS GRACIAS again mate, very smart indicator !

Greetings from France
Dom

Quoting panoramia
You are welcome Boris. Thanks for your message. Hope that you use it and helps you on your trading, it does help me A LOT to know where I'm on the higher timeframes SD areas that I've painted! Enchanté Greetings from Spain {quote}
  • #65
  • May 24, 2013 3:40am May 24, 2013 3:40am
De nada Dom. C'est un plaisir
Glad that it helps you to have a bird view on the currency pairs! Nice!

Salut de l'Espagne
Alfonso

Quoting BorisViven
Dear Alfonso, I discovered your thread only yesterday but already your indi help me a lot to have the "bird view" wich is SO important in trading !MUCHAS GRACIAS again mate, very smart indicator ! Greetings from France Dom {quote}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #66
  • May 24, 2013 10:16am May 24, 2013 10:16am
All I can say is wow. The wealth of information you have put in your posts and videos Panoramia is priceless! I shall be looking forward to following this thread and practicing the S/D! Thanks!
  • #67
  • May 29, 2013 11:40am May 29, 2013 11:40am
Goo triggered yesterday Monday short on CADCHF on a nice fresh supply level, after demand at 0.9300 had been broken by price action. That gave me permission and + 3:1 profit margin to go short. It's working nicely, price penetrated my H4 level deeply into a H1 supply level in there. I've been away for a whole day, so didn't touch anything. My TP was almost hit, moved my SL above recent H1 highs to lock 70 pips and will see!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #68
  • May 29, 2013 11:42am May 29, 2013 11:42am
Missed CADJPY long by 0.3 pips, that long order had been sitting there for a few days and today it was almost triggered. Missed the short entry at the top by less than 10 pips, the long one by 0.3 pips. Broker is playing cat and mouse with my orders
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  • #69
  • May 29, 2013 1:40pm May 29, 2013 1:40pm
With regards to the CADJPY trade, since it's 0.3 pips shy from your pending LONG order, do you consider this a fresh or a touched zone?

To me, I'll just assume that the zone has been touched and it's not fresh anymore. But what is your view on this?

Brokers play with the spreads But we'll get them next time.
  • #70
  • May 29, 2013 1:47pm May 29, 2013 1:47pm
take this EUR/USD for instance. it the 1.2790 H4 Demand lvl fresh or touched?

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  • #71
  • May 29, 2013 2:15pm May 29, 2013 2:15pm
As long as price does not rally and makes a higher higher, I won't consider it a touch, so for me it's still a valid level, it's a H4 fresh demand area low in the curve at a D1/WK demand area, valid for me, it has not touched my level yet and didn't make a higher high.

Hope that makes sense.

Quoting laurence
With regards to the CADJPY trade, since it's 0.3 pips shy from your pending LONG order, do you consider this a fresh or a touched zone? To me, I'll just assume that the zone has been touched and it's not fresh anymore. But what is your view on this? Brokers play with the spreads But we'll get them next time.
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  • #72
  • May 29, 2013 2:18pm May 29, 2013 2:18pm
For me it's not a touched level, I try to be very strict, if price has not pierced it then it's still fresh. If price reaches a level and doesn't touch it by 1-2 pips or a few more, for me it means there is a log of buyers interested in that area. If area is not penetrated and it's a "touch and go", I will still consider it.

If it's touched then = touched, if it's not touched, then it's not touched Trying to assess levels always the same way!


Quoting laurence
take this EUR/USD for instance. it the 1.2790 H4 Demand lvl fresh or touched? {image}
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  • #73
  • May 29, 2013 2:30pm May 29, 2013 2:30pm
Thanks Alfonso,

You're right. I should strictly follow the rules. I was being subjective when analyzing whether or not it is a touch or go; which is wrong to do.

heh, it's hard to be mechanical sometimes. I should learn to trust my rules more and be more objective. that's the downside of me.

Btw, do you place your pending orders and trade the market on opening Mondays and Europe Friday afternoons? I usually place my pending orders around 6:50am London time and then it is good to cancel orders at 5pm from Tuesdays to Thursdays.
  • #74
  • May 30, 2013 3:43am May 30, 2013 3:43am
USD/CHF

Daily Chart: Direction is UPTREND but price dropped from Daily Supply @ 0.9827
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H4 Chart: Pending Buy order @ 0.95388
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  • #75
  • Edited 9:24am May 30, 2013 8:56am | Edited 9:24am
It seems price is now ranging, but anyway, my order got filled. I'm letting it run and set stop loss to B/E+2pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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.

Quoting laurence
USD/CHF Daily Chart: Direction is UPTREND but price dropped from Daily Supply @ 0.9827{image} H4 Chart: Pending Buy order @ 0.95388{image}

I'm out: so it's breakeven + 2pips
  • #76
  • May 30, 2013 10:12am May 30, 2013 10:12am
thanks for posting the charts - i got some idea for alfonsos indicator.

Quoting laurence
It seems price is now ranging, but anyway, my order got filled. I'm letting it run and set stop loss to B/E+2pips{image}. {quote} I'm out: so it's breakeven + 2pips
  • #77
  • May 31, 2013 2:35am May 31, 2013 2:35am
Quoting laurence
It seems price is now ranging, but anyway, my order got filled. I'm letting it run and set stop loss to B/E+2pips {image}. {quote} I'm out: so it's breakeven + 2pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130531-a6sy-108kb.jpg Size: 109 KB


just below 0.9500 we have a great RBR.
my English is not very good ...
  • #78
  • May 31, 2013 3:41am May 31, 2013 3:41am
Quoting kompi
{quote} {image} just below 0.9500 we have a great RBR.
it's a great RBR. But I'll use RBR when it's a clear uptrend. it seems that Daily demand zones are not respected.

But maybe you can get good pips from the zone and since .9500 is a psychological number
  • #79
  • May 31, 2013 3:44am May 31, 2013 3:44am
Quoting astock
thanks for posting the charts - i got some idea for alfonsos indicator. {quote}
Yes, the rectangular indicator is great as it automatically stretches out the length of the rectangle. No fuss. This is the kind of indicator I have been looking for. Cheers to Alfonso.
  • #80
  • May 31, 2013 5:39am May 31, 2013 5:39am
Hey Lawrence!

I finally got triggered long on CADJPY on the H4 demand level I missed by 0.3 pips a couple of days ago. There is new H4 supply area right above, which reduced my TP a lot, so I am being more conservative with my TP on this one. I even moved my SL breakeven ahead of time. It's not a good sign for a long. We'll see what happens! Thanks for sharing your screenshots on the thread, I really appreciate it.

Alfonso

Quoting laurence
Thanks Alfonso, You're right. I should strictly follow the rules. I was being subjective when analyzing whether or not it is a touch or go; which is wrong to do. heh, it's hard to be mechanical sometimes. I should learn to trust my rules more and be more objective. that's the downside of me. Btw, do you place your pending orders and trade the market on opening Mondays and Europe Friday afternoons? I usually place my pending orders around 6:50am London time and then it is good to cancel orders at 5pm from Tuesdays to Thursdays.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 130 KB
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