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Swing trading with heiken ashi and stochs

  • #2,601
  • May 29, 2013 12:52am May 29, 2013 12:52am
Audusd and gbpusd still going, eurgbp just going sideways. Gbpchf has invalidated itself by trading above the 100 sma, it was borderline anyway. I've had another go at oil. All in all not going too badly, up 8% in 21 days if I close everything now.
  • #2,602
  • May 29, 2013 7:55am May 29, 2013 7:55am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Audusd and gbpusd still going, eurgbp just going sideways. Gbpchf has invalidated itself by trading above the 100 sma, it was borderline anyway. I've had another go at oil. All in all not going too badly, up 8% in 21 days if I close everything now.
HB,

When I look at the Gbpchf, I see where it rose above the 100 sma for about 3 bars on the 4H chart, but then fell back below the sma. So, did it invalidate itself by dropping below or when it rose above the 100 sma? The reason I ask is that my Daily and Weekly chart both show the Gbpchf to be above the 100 sma also. So we should only be looking to go Long this pair - and only when it is above the sma - am I right? Am I misunderstanding (totally possible!)?

Thanks,

Bry
  • #2,603
  • May 29, 2013 8:27am May 29, 2013 8:27am
Quoting Traderbry
{quote} HB, When I look at the Gbpchf, I see where it rose above the 100 sma for about 3 bars on the 4H chart, but then fell back below the sma. So, did it invalidate itself by dropping below or when it rose above the 100 sma? The reason I ask is that my Daily and Weekly chart both show the Gbpchf to be above the 100 sma also. So we should only be looking to go Long this pair - and only when it is above the sma - am I right? Am I misunderstanding (totally possible!)? Thanks, Bry
Don't look at the daily chart as well, it just confuses things. Gbpchf looked like it was turning down on the weekly but as it hadn't already turned it was a bit of a speculative view. As soon as it traded above the 100 sma on the 4 hour I was not interested because I'm only looking to go short under the 100 sma(in the direction the weekly is turning). Looking at the action on cadchf I wouldn't be surprised if gbpchf hasn't turned down as well but it's off my list for this week and I can always join in next week on a pullback if it's going to put in a good downtrend.
  • #2,604
  • May 29, 2013 8:51am May 29, 2013 8:51am
Thanks HB.
  • #2,605
  • May 30, 2013 12:50am May 30, 2013 12:50am
Gbpusd out at break even but pulling back nicely so may give another entry. Audusd pulling back but doing fine. Cadchf and oil both coming on ok.

Eurusd has invalidated itself. Eurgbp and eurcad a bit sideways. Usdcad pulling back ok, 1.03 would be nice for a turn.
  • #2,606
  • May 31, 2013 12:43am May 31, 2013 12:43am
Gbpusd invalidated for this week. Everything just ticking over at the moment.
  • #2,607
  • May 31, 2013 3:53am May 31, 2013 3:53am
This usdcad put in a nice bounce from 1.03 but it's already moved up quite a bit so it would need quite a big stop loss. Also the stochs are not very smooth. I find cad pairs quite choppy anyway. I'm going to leave it in any event as I am winding this account down now but I thought I'd post it for interest.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 4 hour 31 5 13.png Size: 58 KB
  • #2,608
  • May 31, 2013 3:57am May 31, 2013 3:57am
Here's oil. It has a different market time than the forex pairs on my broker so there's another hour to go before this closes. It looks ok anyway, stochs up, ha turning. I'm already in oil from a little higher and this is the sort of trade I wouldn't mind taking. Two nice entries near the 100 sma then just hold. Not much risk if I am wrong. I may take this in an hours time as I am going to have to hold the original trade anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil 4 hour 31 5 13.png Size: 61 KB
  • #2,609
  • May 31, 2013 7:22am May 31, 2013 7:22am
Cad news in ten minutes could well give things a push. One way or another...
  • #2,610
  • May 31, 2013 7:35am May 31, 2013 7:35am
Just took a cheeky entry on usdcad. News came out 0.1% better for Cad GDP, that's probably not going to change the direction of the trend but it did push the price down to just above 1.03 which has already acted as strong support. This allowed me to get in with a very tight stop.

Then I remembered I'm supposed to be running this account down... oops. Oh well, it's all good fun.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 4 hour 31 5 13 2.png Size: 60 KB
  • #2,611
  • May 31, 2013 7:49am May 31, 2013 7:49am
Eurgbp just stopped out for a loss.
  • #2,612
  • May 31, 2013 9:17am May 31, 2013 9:17am
Usdcad just moved to break even. That was a nice entry, you won't get one like that every day. Now let's see if it can stay afloat while the 100 sma does its thing.
  • #2,613
  • May 31, 2013 3:55pm May 31, 2013 3:55pm
Ticking over nicely but got to switch to the live account soon. I'm away for a few weeks now but I should be able to let these trades run while I'm away so that we can see what would have happened if I had held them. Of course the dynamic would be slightly different if I was trading continuously on the same account and there would have been more trades coming in, winners and losers, but it will be good to see how far these trades go.

I'm looking forward to my time away but also looking forward to getting stuck in to setting up my new service. If you are interested in my new training, mentoring or copying service then get in touch at [email protected] . Like I said I'm away for a few weeks but when I get back I am all ready to go.

Just as a rough guide I'm thinking of pitching the price at £49 a month for just signals/trade copying (although I'm yet to find the best solution for the copying idea) and £99 a month for the full training/mentoring/copying package. I'm pricing it realistically because to be frank I don't need to make a lot of money from providing the service, it's more about helping people out, but if I offered it for free I'd get a lot of freeloaders coming along for whatever they could get and not taking it seriously. I will only work with people who genuinely want to be helped.

Have a good few weeks and take care.
  • #2,614
  • May 31, 2013 3:57pm May 31, 2013 3:57pm
Out of interest here is the usdcad chart again. A very nice entry with a 20 pips stop!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 4 hour 31 5 13 3.png Size: 60 KB
  • #2,615
  • May 31, 2013 5:51pm May 31, 2013 5:51pm
Very impressive results this past month. Good work.
  • #2,616
  • May 31, 2013 10:26pm May 31, 2013 10:26pm
Hi Hugh,

I follow this thread daily and I have to say that, reading 2 of your trading system threads during the past week, I have been learning a ton. Thank you !

I have a real interest in trying to understand (part of) the how's and why's of the market and I have to say that these super long threads with daily feedback and comments are very valuable for what I am trying to do.

Just 2 short questions regarding the system itself. Now that it is necessary to check 2 TFs, I was wondering if we should really wait for a perfect signal on 1D before moving down to 1H or if you can be less picky on the higher TF signals?

Also, let say I spot a valid signal on 1D so I decide to switch to 1H and start looking for entries signal and follow it for some time. when should I consider going back to the 1D tf to restart the process all over? My own personal feeling would be to wait until I feel that the trend is about to end and the pair will start to range or reverse. So right now, I am doing 2 things: look at the 100sma slope and wait for a clear 100sma cross followed by a 100sma slope reversal. This tells me to go back to the 1D and wait for the next trend. I am far to be sure that this is optimal as my knowledge is still limited.

Is that an ok approach?
  • #2,617
  • Jun 1, 2013 11:09am Jun 1, 2013 11:09am
Quoting SeanyTsunami
Very impressive results this past month. Good work.
Thanks Seany but don't forget that's not banked trades yet, anything could happen next week although I think now with that audusd trade really starting to lock in some profit that the worst that can happen is that I break even. Of course it would be nice if all these trends continue a good long way and I'll bank a good return but that's up to the market! Of course if I was still trading that account there would be new trades coming in too so the profit and/or loss would have been slightly different but I'm just going to let these run now and see what would have happened.
  • #2,618
  • Jun 1, 2013 11:16am Jun 1, 2013 11:16am
Quoting veyron
Hi Hugh, I follow this thread daily and I have to say that, reading 2 of your trading system threads during the past week, I have been learning a ton. Thank you ! I have a real interest in trying to understand (part of) the how's and why's of the market and I have to say that these super long threads with daily feedback and comments are very valuable for what I am trying to do. Just 2 short questions regarding the system itself. Now that it is necessary to check 2 TFs, I was wondering if we should really wait for a perfect signal on 1D before moving...
Hi, glad you are finding my threads useful.

What you are doing with the higher timeframe is waiting for the conditions to be right for there to be a move. The aim is to try and catch those long runs of heiken ashi candles where they stay one colour for 5 to 15 candles or so. The best way to do that is to wait for a perfect signal in the direction of a perfect trend but yes in theory you could consider some more borderline signals on the higher timeframe as they are not actually giving you entry signals, merely giving you the nod to go to the lower timeframe to look for trades.

You never know when the trend is about to end which is why you use the 100 sma as a guide. So, wait for a signal on the higher timeframe (daily in your case), move to the lower timeframe (hourly), the price should already be trading the right side of the 100 sma in the direction of the daily turn. Then establish 1 or 2 positions, get them to break even and then just hold them. When the 100 sma is breached (whether before or after you have got trades in place) then the higher timeframe setup is invalidated and you need to go back the higher timeframe and wait for a fresh signal.
  • #2,619
  • Jun 2, 2013 1:39am Jun 2, 2013 1:39am
I am looking for a broker who offers a wider range of instruments. Can anyone suggest a broker who offers forex, commodities, stocks, bonds, etc all on one platform. It doesn't necessarily have to be mt4 but it must be programmable for trade management, etc. Also I hate java charts that you have to keep reloading, some kind of tab system similar to mt4 where you can keep the charts open would be good.
  • #2,620
  • Jun 2, 2013 4:08pm Jun 2, 2013 4:08pm
Good pairs for this week are usdcad, gbpchf, cadchf and oil. Wait for a clear signal.
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