Higher low, lower high system

EUR GU EJ 20 May

EUR - D closed with a lower wick rejecting 1.2800. 4hr lower high lower low in tact, positive divergence is still showing. 1hr shows the bounce from 1.2800 at the London close time frame and Asian session then made a higher low.. The June '12 high/Mar, Apr '13 lows support/resistance level is 1.2745 where we have W S1 also. Seems like a good target if we can get there, the reaction up in Apr shows how 1.2800 was bought. Bias down with obvious support at 1.2800. After an almost 400 pip move down with no real bounce a reversal is due.

GU - D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. 4hr just made a new low with positive divergence showing. Bias down.

EJ - D closed positive. Comments from Economy minister Akira Amari, responding to a question on how far the yen should weaken, replied that while he couldn't comment himself, "it's being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed" set off a massive drop. No idea what the big boys will do with this.

Recap 20 May

EUR - D closed with a lower wick rejecting 1.2800. 4hr lower high lower low in tact, positive divergence is still showing. 1hr shows the bounce from 1.2800 at the London close time frame and Asian session then made a higher low.. The June '12 high/Mar, Apr '13 lows support/resistance level is 1.2745 where we have W S1 also. Seems like a good target if we can get there, the reaction up in Apr shows how 1.2800 was bought.. Bias down with obvious support at 1.2800. After an almost 400 pip move down with no real bounce a reversal is due.
Result: The 1hr higher low following 4hr divergence won the day and we did move up at London open and after London close. We did get a (not totally unexpected) bounce up.

GU - D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. 4hr just made a new low with positive divergence showing. Bias down.
Result: The 1hr higher low following 4hr divergence saw move up.

EJ - D closed positive. Comments from Economy minister Akira Amari, responding to a question on how far the yen should weaken, replied that while he couldn't comment himself, "it's being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed" set off a massive drop. No idea what the big boys will do with this.
Result: After the news at market open a small range day that we left.

EUR GU EJ 21 May

EUR - D closed positive up from the 1.2800 support level. RSI crossed but we closed below the 8lwma. 4hr still on lower high lower low. 1hr made a slight higher high in Asian session (perfectly normal for Asian session to respect the range) and on higher high higher low, its possible that will fail now. The time frames are giving conflicting information. D could be start of move up or just an expected rally in down trend. A 1hr positive close here might see test of yesterdays high. If the W pivot 1.2886 holds and we close negative then we are on 1hr lower high. Due to the conflicting info no bias but my preference is for move lower and this is a rally in down trend.

GU - D closed positive and we have struggled for 4 days to go lower below 1.5160/80. 4hr on lower high lower low, closed negative but RSI has not crossed and still above 8lwma. 1hr made a lower high in Asian session at W M3 and might be on another lower high. Obviously from the positive D close can move up or can be rally in down trend.

EJ - Largely a mess either avoided or have patience. Even though it was a solid 4hr 'signal' yesterday, engulfing negative close just above W S1 131.50, RSI cross, we left it due to the obvious support.

Recap 21 May

EUR - D closed positive up from the 1.2800 support level. RSI crossed but we closed below the 8lwma. 4hr still on lower high lower low. 1hr made a slight higher high in Asian session (perfectly normal for Asian session to respect the range) and on higher high higher low, its possible that will fail now. The time frames are giving conflicting information. D could be start of move up or just an expected rally in down trend. A 1hr positive close here might see test of yesterdays high. If the W pivot 1.2886 holds and we close negative then we are on 1hr lower high. Due to the conflicting info no bias but my preference is for move lower and this is a rally in down trend.
Result: At London open the W pivot held with an engulfing close shooting star, the upper wick rejecting the Asian session highs (which we got). A double bottom engulfing close hammer at London close started move up (didn't get a little late).

GU - D closed positive and we have struggled for 4 days to go lower below 1.5160/80. 4hr on lower high lower low, closed negative but RSI has not crossed and still above 8lwma. 1hr made a lower high in Asian session at W M3 and might be on another lower high. Obviously from the positive D close can move up or can be rally in down trend.
Result: Engulfing negative close shooting star at London open started move down. Mrs V chose EUR to trade and that didn't run as much as GU.

EJ - Largely a mess either avoided or have patience. Even though it was a solid 4hr 'signal' yesterday, engulfing negative close just above W S1 131.50, RSI cross, we left it due to the obvious support.
Result: The move up in Asian session had little follow through.

EUR GU EJ 22 May

MPC minutes this morning and Bernanke testifies this afternoon (each around 90 minutes after their respective markets open).

EUR - D closed positive but not entirely convincing. We have not had any pullback for a 4-7 day turn, i.e. no double bottom/higher low. Take a look at the D chart on most turns you'd have some kind of final attempt in direction of trend. 4hr flow higher high higher low. 1hr showing upper wicks at W M3 1.2932. 1hr positive close would see retest of yesterdays high/W M3, a negative close would change the flow down again. No bias as we can obviously go in either direction. I would suspect down at some point as the move up is either a rally in down trend or we need a move down to complete a 4-7 day turn.

GU - D lower high engulfing negative close. 4hr lower high lower low flow in place, positive divergence showing. A positive close on 1hr would be a higher low following divergence. Bias is down though.

EJ - D closed positive with a small range. 4hr showing moves up largely happening during Asian session recently. We have closed at the highs/W M3 and need to see the reaction. A smaller reaction lower (that we are currently seeing) may see highs fail for move up.

Hi Vantage,
Thanks for your daily analysis. It's good to compare your perspective with mine. I will contribute when I have something worth saying.
Regards,
Kan

Its a pleasure and amazing how it helps me putting pen to paper as it were each day before the market starts. I am 100% convinced that I am better off for it. I still do analysis each day even when Mrs V is off. After almost a month of very little trading she started a day or two back.

2 trades today, a EUR buy which stalled at the identified level and this EJ trade. 1hr engulfing positive close, 15 min hl waited for the upper wick to clear. 2 solid trades even if not the biggest ever seen.

Recap 22 May
MPC minutes this morning and Bernanke testifies this afternoon (each around 90 minutes after their respective markets open).

EUR - D closed positive but not entirely convincing. We have not had any pullback for a 4-7 day turn, i.e. no double bottom/higher low. Take a look at the D chart on most turns you'd have some kind of final attempt in direction of trend. 4hr flow higher high higher low. 1hr showing upper wicks at W M3 1.2932. 1hr positive close would see retest of yesterdays high/W M3, a negative close would change the flow down again. No bias as we can obviously go in either direction. I would suspect down at some point as the move up is either a rally in down trend or we need a move down to complete a 4-7 day turn.
Result: We did have the London open 1hr positive close to test to test the previous days high. Going into US session another 1hr higher low which we did not consider with Bernanke approaching. The move up was sold off strongly.

GU - D lower high engulfing negative close. 4hr lower high lower low flow in place, positive divergence showing. A positive close on 1hr would be a higher low following divergence. Bias is down though.
Result: Down bias played out nicely at London open.

EJ - D closed positive with a small range. 4hr showing moves up largely happening during Asian session recently. We have closed at the highs/W M3 and need to see the reaction. A smaller reaction lower (that we are currently seeing) may see highs fail for move up.
Result: The weaker reaction from a key level is often a sign that level will fail. Nice move up until Bernanke testified.

EUR GU EJ 23 May
EUR - Pushed up to the 1.3000 resistance level and sold off strongly with Bernanke testifying. D closed a shooting star. This would suggest down trend resuming. We will have to see if the news reaction follows through lower today or if the buyers at 1.2800 win the day. Bias down.

GU - I don't have the lower wicks marked on my D chart with a line but its obvious (20 Mar, 4 Apr) that we have a potential support area here. Yesterdays close looks nothing like the big wicks on those days. Bias down.

EJ - Yesterday closed a shooting star after reaching the D resistance level/W R2, with negative divergence. On Y's D close we are still above the 8lwma and RSI above the 50 level and looking to cross up. Asian session has dropped 100 pips already making further counter trend (on D chart that is) sells very tricky. No bias.

28 May
EUR - Downtrend still in place, support and resistance levels highlighted.

GU - D lower high close. Bounce Asian session from the support area, W M2 1.5068. No reason to believe this is anything other than a rally in downtrend.

EJ - Uptrend has resumed in Asian session with a 100 pip move up.

EA - No sign of uptrend failing, next identified resistance level I have is 1.3650.

AU - Bouncing off the June '12 low. Only time will tell if this is a change in trend or a pause in downtrend. The reaction last week to the low was nothing like June's.

NU - Divergence at the lows, 1 hr has been chopping a tight range for a few days now.

UC - D higher low seems in place after reject of resistance level 1.0365.

29 May
EUR - Downtrend still in place, support and resistance levels highlighted. Price moved up to the previous highs and gave 3 1hr candles to signal move back to trend (doji, shooting star, doji). 1hr lower high lower low in place. Bias down.

GU - D lower high close. Bounce Asian session from the support area, W M2 1.5068. No reason to believe this is anything other than a rally in downtrend. Very similar situation to EUR, bias down.

EJ - Uptrend has resumed. Bias up.

EA - No sign of uptrend failing, next identified resistance level I have is 1.3650. Stalled at the previous high.

AU - Below the June '12 low. The reaction last week to the low was nothing like June's. Will need to see if the break below the resistance level can hold.

NU - Divergence at the lows, 1 hr has been chopping a tight range for a few days now.

UC - D higher low seems in place after reject of resistance level 1.0365. 1hr higher high higher low flow in place.

Regular lurkers here will be aware of the issues we currently face (Mrs V's health issues and computer time). We are looking to take the best of D1 - 20 50 ema method http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=425041 and the best of what we have (really focus on 1hr flow returning to trend if pullbacks on D chart have changed the immediate 1hr flow to keep stops more reasonable).

Whether this needs another thread only time will tell. For now 15 min charts are gone. We have D + 1hr for 6 pairs up (NU in background). Stops are bigger based on 1hr charts but the 2 trades shown are currently 11% up (Mrs V has just exited). I have not re-written 1st page yet whilst we mull over the fact that we are now looking at same kind of 1hr set ups but taking entry off those charts and focus on trend.

Got a question on entry compared to the D1 20 50 ema system.

We don't trade when price enters 1hr W%R OB OS areas in line with D trend but when 1hr closes and suggests moving back in line with D confirmed (1hr dble top/btm, HL LH). So that will be when W%R is exiting/has exited the OB OS areas.

When 1hr flow is strong there will be entries in line with flow and W%R has not gone back to OB OS areas, we'll take those as normal. looking at exactly same kind of 1hr candles that we preferred as set ups, same as usual there. They'll be largely 3 bar reversals, engulfing, wicks suggesting the CT 1hr move is exhausting. When a major move has happened and 1hr flow against D then wanting those multiple x 1hr candles/patterns to confirm flow back in line with D trend.

why M15 charts are abandoned ? Aren't they reliable anymore ?

I do not have the time to watch charts in the day. Mrs V can miss a week or two at a time for health reasons. I have been looking for something that fits in with our trading time but requires less chart time. The answer seems to be D trend 1hr entry.

Its been a very busy month for me and little time to post. 3 trades from today for about 180 pips or approx 18% return for the day. Is everyday like this, of course not but I'll take 'em when Mrs V can give 'em. Major focus was 4hr chart in taking these.

EU clearly shows the struggle for hours to go higher at W M4, then a lower high shooting star suggesting flow back into sells.

EJ recent highs in area of 132.00 then a 1hr lower high suggesting flow down.

CAD struggled at the prev days lows W pivot for a return to trend.

I found a pivot points weekly indi that and attached to the 1st post. It shows the historical W pivots, great for back testing. On the downside it doesn't have mid pivots but heck a simple eyeballing will tell you where they are. Then in trend good candles that resume the move or CT change flow (looking for proper dble tops/bottoms or hl/lhs on 1hr i.e. multiple candles for change of direction) in reaction to the pivots.

EURAUD shows how it would have helped to have the mid pivots this week.

The rest of the 4hr W pivot charts showing how important they are with SR levels.

3 June 2013
EUR - D closed negative double top high lower close, RSI above 50 level. 4hr now on higher high higher low. We have a visible support/resistance level from early May at last weeks highs. Short term bias up and we'll see the reaction to 1.3060.

GU - Similar picture to EUR but the D is at a support/resistance level from 17-24 Apr. Bias up but will be looking for reaction at the highs 1.5238 in particular during the US session.

EJ - D close negative near the lows, RSI below 50 level. 4hr shows the tight range for the week 130.20-132.00, RSI also below 50 level. Normally bias would be down, the support area is strong so a bounce would be no surprise.

EA - D closed positive but we gapped down on the open today. 4hr double top with divergence, this run up has had lots of negative divergences, I can only spot 1 lower high following divergence that did work out with a move lower. Bias up if only for the gap to be closed.

AU - D engulfing lower high negative close, normally a strong sell. We gapped up on the open. This is not near the same reaction previously seen on 1 June '12. Bias down if only for the gap to be closed and then we'll see the reaction to the lows.

UCAD - D engulfing positive close, above RSI 50 level but did not cross its signal line. 4hr showing a possible head and shoulders. Bias up and then we'll see the reaction to the highs.

AUD sell back into D trend from yesterday. The 1hr flow clearly on a lower high, engulfing neg close, suggesting D trend down kicked back in. We had TP just above the W pivot at the support area from 31 May. 114 pips.

Also had a losing GU trade on 4th in some of the chop.

Despite some good trend set ups today in particular on aud and euraud no trades for us not in front of the computer.

I'll put the euraud up as it should be clear as day where we'd be interested.