Long Term Trading - Set and Forget

Hello.
I've been a member for 7 years, and figure it's about time to record my trades. I've been successful for the last 3 years (after treading water for the first 4 years). I welcome any comments you have.
Here are the rules I follow:
- Small lots, wide stops
- Check my trade status no more than 2 times a week
- Use only fibs, moving averages, trend lines, reversal patterns

Here we go:
GBP/USD:After a perfect 50% retrace on the move from 1.6380-1.4831, we are moving down towards 1.40.
Major supports at:
1.5196 (23% retrace)
1.5032 (April 4 low)
1.4831
1.4667 (62% expansion)

The trade: Short GBP/USD @ 1.5300, SL 1.5490. TP Open

EUR/USD: Similar to the GBP/USD, with the 50% retrace on the move from 1.3711-1.2751, we are flirting with the 23% line, but at the same time have successfully dropped through the 200 and 50 moving averages, which are now working as nice resistances. When this 23% line is successfully broken, we are moving down towards 1.2745 and below.
Major supports at:
1.2744 (April 4 low)
1.2661 (November low)
1.2256

The trade: Short EUR/USD @ 1.2975, SL 1.3125. TP Open

Hello, i will be watching your posts,i also use fibs and TLs and hopefully i will learn more from you
good luck

Thanks, Vexx! One comment. If I don't mention the amount of my position, I use the following logic:
- Standard trade size is the number of lots that would make me lose 4% of my account value if the stop is hit.

If I do mention the size of my position, it is in relation to my standard trade size.

Mid-Week Commentary:


As expected, 1.5196 area served as a good support for GBP/USD, and it may take a while for the price to break through that level. I'm going to wait to move my stop to break even, and may even add to this position if the price slowly works its way back up to 1.53.


Changes to position:


None. Stay the course.

End-of-Week Commentary:

GBP/USD bounced off the 1.5196 support working its way above 1.5320 before resuming its way back down. The interesting thing to note is that even though the US Data was miserable yesterday morning, 1.53 clearly could not hold. Even before the favorable Michigan sentiment this morning, Asia and Europe sessions brought it off the highs. That's very favorable for our trade. It will be very interesting to see if 1.5196 completely gives way today, or waits until next week.

EUR/USD isn't quite as interesting as the pound, but is continuing on its way down to 1.2745, as expected.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.2975.

Beginning-of-Week Commentary:

EUR/USD is a long-term short for me, possibly as low as 1.20 at this point. In the short-term all eyes (mine included) look to Wednesday, as Bernanke's choice of words will either immediately extend the dollar rally or put a quick correction on it. If the latter is true (which I feel is very possible), this pair could climb as high as 1.2975, which interestingly is the point of entry on my trade ( and the 23% retrace of the move from 1.3711 to 1.2751). At that point, I plan on adding half of a new short position to the trade.

GBP/USD is also a long-term short, but the possibility also exists that a climb to the 50 SMA of 1.5340 is in the near-term cards. This is why I pay as little attention as possible to the moves like today's 80 pip climb. It doesn't matter in the long run.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.2975. Possible limit sell @ 1.2975 on Wednesday. I will discuss then.

Have a great trading week!

Mid-Week Commentary (Pre-Bernanke):

GBP/USD: This pair has fascinated me over the last 24 hours, as miserable CPI and retail sales data have trumped the Fed when it comes to this pair. I expected a 100 or so pip rise in both the pound and euro since the remarks made yesterday about the bond purchasing program. While the euro has gone up as expected, the pound has dropped 50, leading me to believe that it is already priced in that Bernanke will echo Dudley's comments yesterday, and that traders are ready to move on.

EUR/USD: I'm going to add an extra 1/4 of my position as a limit order in the somewhat-possible event that this pair rises to 1.2975.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: Hold the short from 1.2975. Add a limit sell @ 1.2975 for an extra 1/4 of whatever the original position was. SL 1.3125. TP Open.

I will add another commentary post-Bernanke to discuss the technical aspects. Have a great day!

Mid-Week Commentary (Post-Bernanke):

GBP/USD: We have hit and are currently bouncing around the next support I predicted- the April 4th low of 1.5032.

EUR/USD: Our limit sell was filled at 1.2975 before dropping significantly. On the technical side, the next level of support will be at 1.2744. Tomorrow's Europe session will be busy, with reports coming out that, if negative, will help us get to this support sooner.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the shorts from 1.2975.

I welcome any comments you may have, positive or negative.

End-of-Week Commentary:

GBP/USD: A very nice trend line can be drawn on the 4hr chart from May 9 through today. We are at the top of this line, and if I were to add to my position, now would be the time. Since we are already up 180 pips on this trade, I choose not to add to my position.

EUR/USD: This pair should be doing as well as the pound, but we are being held up by a number of factors, including good Eurozone IFO and Consumer Confidence numbers, as well as the unloading of USD/JPY with a Nikkei selloff. The fact that the Euro tried and failed another test of 1.2975 is encouraging, as is the US Durable Goods numbers from this morning, adding to speculation of an earlier tapering of asset purchases.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the shorts from 1.2975.

Beginning-of-Week Commentary:

GBP/USD: If a move happens today, it will probably happen around 10am, when the consumer confidence numbers come out. Technically, we have a lot of room to move between 1.5032 (April 4 low) and 1.5196 (the 23% retrace of the move from 1.6380-1.4831). Another test of 1.5032 this week would be very interesting, as it would help us determine our confidence in a continuation of this downtrend.

EUR/USD: We have plenty of resistance in this pair to provide a top in this pair (50 SMA at 1.30, 200 EMA at 1.3024 and the 23% retrace at 1.2970. To bust through this, we would need absolutely miserable data this week, and a rethinking of asset purchase tapering.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the shorts from 1.2975.

Have a great trading day!

Hello falcon232.

Congratulations on your smart way to do trading.
Simple, discrete and effective.


You only trade this two currencies pairs?
I trade 8 of the majors currencies pairs.

Hey Ladylike,
Thanks. I trade most pairs, but enjoy trading EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD the most.
I trade the crosses once in a while. I find the majors the most fun and rewarding.

Mid-Week Commentary:

GBP/USD: Last night, the support at 1.5032 was tested again and after holding for several hours, sent back up again. The psychological level of 1.5000 was too tough to break. Because this wasn't a fast rejection, I can see this pair trying again in the future, with better results. If and when 1.5032 is broken, I will finally move my stop to break even.

EUR/USD: 1.2975 was tested yet again and given a fast rejection. The resistances at 1.2975, 1.3000 and 1.3024 (as I discussed in yesterday's commentary) have held strong. A Fed official echoed the talking points from last week about a modest reduction in asset purchases in the next several months.

NZD/USD: On a purely technical note, I am studying a possible long entry on the NZD/USD should the pair continue to drop a bit more. Just like my two active trades, I will apply a very wide SL. I will discuss more at the end of the week, as it is still very premature and the trade may not happen if NZD/USD does not approach the weekly trend line and 200 SMA any closer.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the shorts from 1.2975.

End-of-Week Commentary:

GBP/USD: The move from 1.5605-1.5007 is in a retrace. The 38% level of 1.5238 is serving as resistance. If this level is broken, I plan on adding a small short position as the price approaches the 50% level. I'm not confident this will take place.

EUR/USD: The 50 SMA of 1.3008 is the level to look at today. I will be very interested to see what happens to this level based on today's consumer sentiment. Most likely, I will not be adding to this position.

NZD/USD: I am planning a long entry via a limit order should the price dip further and set up a nice reversal pattern. I will comment further in a couple hours.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Bernanke is looking at US economic reports to get an overall picture of the state of the economy in order to determine if and when to taper asset purchases. He is not, however, making decisions based on one report. Traders overreacted when GDP was adjusted 1/10 of a point lower. Overreacting is what traders do. In the short term, I cannot predict with certainty where the dollar is going. In the medium term, I am fairly confident the dollar is getting stronger. In the long term, I am VERY confident the dollar is getting stronger.
We are recovering faster than Europe. Once the USD/JPY correction is settled, fasten your seatbelts!

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the short from 1.5300.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the shorts from 1.2975.

Have a great trading day!

I like Fibonacci.

Can you post the result as well? It would be nice if you attach a trade explorer.

I was conflicted about whether or not to include a trade explorer here. I figured that since the posts are in real-time, and people are reading them in real-time, there would be no need. Since you brought it up, I'm leaning towards showing the trade explorer. Thanks for the comment!

Commentary (cont.):

NZD/USD: We are approaching the weekly trend line at .7895. Also, the 62% Fib of the move from .7455-.8675 sits at .7920. The 200 EMA and the 200 SMA provide support at .7788 and .7748, respectively. I am placing a buy limit order for half of a standard position. If the currency sets up a nice reversal pattern, I will buy another half.

The trade: Long NZD/USD at .7920, SL .7680, TP .8520. Half normal lot size.

Have a great weekend!

Beginning-of-Week Commentary:

GBP/USD: The combination of better than expected PMI and worse than expected US PMI is sending this pair to the 62% Fib retrace on the move from 1.5587-1.5007. I am placing a small limit sell order just short of this Fib line.

EUR/USD: More important than US PMI data is Williams' (who is usually dovish) comments about the possibility of the tapering of asset purchases by the end of this summer. This plays a far more important role in this trade than PMI data.

NZD/USD: Looks to me like we're starting to see the early beginnings of a reversal pattern in this currency, which was exactly what I was looking for to go long in this pair.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: Hold the short from 1.5300. Add a short for 1/4 of the original position at 1.5355. SL 1.5490. TP Open.
EUR/USD: None. Hold the shorts from 1.2975.
NZD/USD: None. Keep the buy order at .7920.

Have a great trading day!

Mid-Week Commentary:

GBP/USD: Once again, the dollar is having trouble in the short-term due to better than expected reports on the GB side and mediocre data from the US. The small short from 1.5355 was filled. I am interested in the behavior of this pair around the 38% fib level of 1.5418 to determine short term direction.

EUR/USD: This pair keeps trying for the 38% fib level at 1.3118. Because my stops are so close to that level, I am going to widen them in order to provide for a little comfort should the pair spike through this level again. Because these long-term trades use small lots, this kind of adjustment adds precaution and minimal risk. The most exciting part of a long-term trade is when short-term sentiment is against you, thus providing for great buying opportunities, as well as big moves in the right direction when the sentiment fades.

NZD/USD: I anticipate this pair going lower than I initially thought, so will edit the buy order a bit lower.

Changes to position:

GBP/USD: None. Hold the shorts from 1.5300 and 1.5355. SL 1.5490. TP Open.
EUR/USD: Hold the shorts from 1.2975, change SL to 1.3180.
NZD/USD: Change the buy order to a limit buy at .7880. SL .7630. TP .8200.