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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #21,341
  • May 27, 2013 6:17am May 27, 2013 6:17am
Quoting slappewas
The E/U makes HL and HH and goes into RN 1.29500 possible small rejection off it, and what jakub have said it goes to the 4H 200 EMA
That's not the kind of answer you can take a trade with. Price is about 40pips away from the 4H 200ema now. You want to go long and take profit there? Where would you enter? What's the probability price will even get there? Why do you think there is a high PROBABILITY the 4H 200ema zone will hold as a resistance? Why will it PROBABLY collapse? The charts always give you high and low PROBABILITY scenarios. Some also call it SUPPLY and DEMAND. The EMAs tell the same story. How do you read all these from the charts? How do you plan your trade? These are the questions I ask myself.
  • #21,342
  • Edited 6:29am May 27, 2013 6:17am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting jordfx
{quote} Let me make it simple for you. Are you bullish or bearish on EU. Where do hope to enter? Where do you hope to exit? Based on whatever you think the charts are telling you? Reply with charts so I can understand your answers...
I am bearish on EU, will be waiting for price to reach zone of 1.29970 and get short, this leve was tested two times already and hold. On H1/H4 we have also dynamic resistance of EMA's


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JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,343
  • May 27, 2013 6:27am May 27, 2013 6:27am
Quoting jordfx
{quote} Why do you think there is a high PROBABILITY the 4H 200ema zone will hold as a resistance? Why will it PROBABLY collapse? Th
I think the price will go to the 1.29970 zone because it already bounced off that zone twice, and i think im bullish because the bounces off that zone are getting smaller, what is a sign that price is going to break that zone?
  • #21,344
  • May 27, 2013 6:33am May 27, 2013 6:33am
Quoting Jackub
{quote}I am bearish on EU, will be waiting for price to reach zone of 1.29970 and get short, this leve was tested two times already and hold {image}
That's a good plan Jackub. It was my plan too till I scrapped it based on the shifting undercurrents I talked about earlier...I think the PROBABILITY of that resistance zone you marked still holding firm is about 50/50 right now. It's been tested twice now(i've taken over 200pips from there spread across multiple positions. I posted the charts earlier). But I think there's a quiet and strong gathering of the bull army going on if you can read the signs. Your exit zone is gradually becoming my entry target. I might be wrong...I am a lot of times..., But like i said it's all about reading the PROBABILITIES...then even if you're wrong, you're still right more often than not!
  • #21,345
  • May 27, 2013 6:40am May 27, 2013 6:40am
Quoting jordfx
{quote} That's a good plan Jackub. It was my plan too till I scrapped it based on the shifting undercurrents I talked about earlier...I think the PROBABILITY of that resistance zone you marked still holding firm is about 50/50 right now. It's been tested twice now(i've taken over 200pips from there spread across multiple positions. I posted the charts earlier). But I think there's a quiet and strong gathering of the bull army going on if you can read the signs. Your exit zone is gradually becoming my entry target. I might be wrong...I am a lot of...

You mean this marked places are as you say "bull gathering" ??

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JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,346
  • May 27, 2013 6:55am May 27, 2013 6:55am
Quoting lowweiting
AU trade....^^ thk JordFx and Emmanuel for sharing S&R knowledge to newbie .... thk LE1 for create this thread..... will learn and contribute.... {image} {image}
You need to work on your exits. From what I've seen they make no sense. If price is bouncing from major daily demand, and making a higher low on the hourly/h4, why are you closing after a meager 12 pips? If you want to make it in this business, taking 12 pip trades won't get you there. I don't give a damn what Arjun says. You need to let your winners runs. Run "if than if" scenarios through your head and you will start to get a better idea of where price will NEED to go.

Now I wouldn't have taken this trade in the first place... I don't see any confirmation yet of this demand level holding up, and its a major bank holiday in the states. But if your willing to take the risk and expose yourself, don't get antsy and close when the price moves a few pips in your favor. Set a target that makes sense.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #21,347
  • May 27, 2013 7:42am May 27, 2013 7:42am
Quoting Jackub
{quote} You mean this marked places are as you say "bull gathering" ?? {image}
That's the smoke...yes...look for the fire...
  • #21,348
  • May 27, 2013 8:33am May 27, 2013 8:33am
Quoting jordfx
An interesting exercise for newbies....there's an interesting undercurrent shifting and changing on EURUSD. Can you spot it? Listen to your charts. Don't even bother with indicators on this one...
So I guess, I pass exam to be newbie !
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,349
  • May 27, 2013 8:46am May 27, 2013 8:46am
AU... with trend 30 pips, low volatility

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Little late entry, was expecting price will go up a bit more
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,350
  • May 27, 2013 9:39am May 27, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Jackub
AU... with trend 30 pips, low volatility {image} Little late entry, was expecting price will go up a bit more
nice catch. Massive Support Level on Monthly TF.
  • #21,351
  • May 28, 2013 2:08am May 28, 2013 2:08am
EURJPY. 50% closed for 120pips.
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  • #21,352
  • May 28, 2013 2:16am May 28, 2013 2:16am
USDJPY. 50% closed for 83pips.
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  • #21,353
  • May 28, 2013 4:59am May 28, 2013 4:59am
GU Fail...

ZZZzz
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  • #21,354
  • May 28, 2013 5:21am May 28, 2013 5:21am
Quoting lowweiting
GU Fail... ZZZzz {image}
Lowweiting you keep repeating the same mistakes over and over and over again. Jackub just went to a lot of effort to answer in detail some questions you asked very recently, and yet you disregard all the information and rather keep on doing the same thing that keeps you in losing trades. Mark out February Low and April low on that GU Chart. What do you see??? How is price reacting to them. Are they buying or selling around those zones???? How is the USD faring generally? Is it STRONG or WEAK??? Listen to what the charts are telling you. Price action much more than candles closing above or below moving averages and daily lows and highs! I thought that should have at least sunk in.
  • #21,355
  • May 28, 2013 5:32am May 28, 2013 5:32am
Quoting lowweiting
GU Fail... ZZZzz {image}
You made my mistake, you was trying sell on low price, if you are looking for oportunity for sell look for the price which is high, not low....
It was in your mind to get YL BO, but where you would like price to go after this BO, numbers of long bottom wicks saying we dont wont the price here... YL level keeps price for quite long time making price ranging... so if we need to sell we wait until price goes up shows exhaustion, and then selll. This was a fake BO..
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my 2cents
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,356
  • Edited 6:02am May 28, 2013 5:48am | Edited 6:02am
Lowweiting,
Sometimes makes me better when can point out somebodys mistakes () .......
But it does mean I am not making them, to day is a simply disaster for me ... still cannot read charts precisly, still make mistakes, but idea how to trade was according with my plan and it was good, just execution of the plan was terrilble. Patience and practice is what we need.... as you may know I hve book (word file) with all mistakes I made since first of May, takes me a lot of time to describe them, analize them and I do read all of them from time to time.... todays mistakes do analzye tommorow, hoping to have new look on the matter... it helps really helps...
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,357
  • May 28, 2013 9:57am May 28, 2013 9:57am
Jordfx,
Long time there was no questions.....
need some help, some giudance in crutial case...
Is it PA is telling you to enter in nr 4 not in 1,2,3 ..??
All this levels 1,2,3 and 4 has S/R, 2,3 and 4 is monthly OHLC, 1 recent S/R seen on ths chart, all of them doing pulbacks, how to recognise which one is THIS ONE we are looking for?, or we do entries and watching if is a breaking of the HH, then closing down and waiting for next one to test?? Waiting for TL BO?

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JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,358
  • May 28, 2013 10:02am May 28, 2013 10:02am
AU... 51 pips
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JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,359
  • May 28, 2013 10:39am May 28, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Jackub
Jordfx,Long time there was no questions.....need some help, some giudance in crutial case...Is it PA is telling you to enter in nr 4 not in 1,2,3 ..??All this levels 1,2,3 and 4 has S/R, 2,3 and 4 is monthly OHLC, 1 recent S/R seen on ths chart, all of them doing pulbacks, how to recognise which one is THIS ONE we are looking for?, or we do entries and watching if is a breaking of the HH, then closing down and waiting for next one to test?? Waiting for TL BO? {image}
Price hasn't touched the 800ema since 9th of May. Always 30 - 40 pips above 200ema, Bears come in to move the trend along. Same thing happened again today. That's HIGH PROBABILITY. You can use the TL break AND PULLBACK as entry trigger.
  • #21,360
  • May 28, 2013 10:51am May 28, 2013 10:51am
my EU trade,
for me my entry was a little late coz i wasn't at my computer....
+46

thanks again guys (Jord, Jack...) for taking time to answer questions of newbies like me

Peace
dom
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