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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,781
  • May 24, 2013 2:29pm May 24, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} little detail.when a scout poorly? PS "turn the wind" is carried in the cross-pair (EU bad > turn in GU etc.)
turning on the wind does not have to be in what you call a cross pair. I don't think fti had ever said that. Sometimes, that could be the worst thing to do.
  • #40,782
  • Edited 3:04pm May 24, 2013 2:45pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} I did think about this recently, rather the killing troubled positions on the EUR/USD you can turn on the GBP/USD and wait for the trend to come back in your favour at a later date to deal with the EUR/USD position. Not sure if this would have effects on the mindset though, and if you ended up in trouble on the GBP/USD etc.
my worry with that method would be that I have been sitting on a position in one pair and it has started to go strongly against me so I decide I must flip the position.......I want to do that in the currency that I have determined is on a strong run in the other direction. If I have a long in cable and there is a strong impulse south...and I open a short in EUR, I could find that EUR is not going down anywhere near as strongly. Now I would have two crap positions instead of one. If I have more than a scout out in cable, I would be leaving that position to haemorrhage money, which makes no sense at all.

Edit: if you search for posts by fti on this subject, it does not seem to be a technique that he encourages very much. My understanding has always been that you would only ever do it if you saw a big wave coming to smash you in the face.
  • #40,783
  • May 24, 2013 3:24pm May 24, 2013 3:24pm
Actually, when I look back through old posts about the things we debate on here, it seems that none of us have it completely right. I can't speak for others but I think that sometimes I take something fti said years ago and embed it in my mind without full understanding. I might do what I believe he was suggesting a few times and have good results, then I am sure I have got it right. It's only when you go back and read through again, while you are trading, that you realise the error of your ways.

I would not jump in on EUR if my GBP position had gone bad, I would flip my GBP position, and I think that's the right thing to do. However, I've done this on occasion when I clearly shouldn't have. I might have been on a third level rescue and tried it....which was never recommended.

The early parts of this thread need revisiting on my part. I'm going for a deep reread while scaling back the size of my trades somewhat.
  • #40,784
  • May 24, 2013 6:00pm May 24, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting fti
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=110779399129853
Animals are amazing. I often prefer their company to humans. Much less drama. Can't wait to trade myself back to a farm or ranch and find the peace i knew when I had it before.

Thank you for the video my friend.
  • #40,785
  • May 24, 2013 6:05pm May 24, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Actually, when I look back through old posts about the things we debate on here, it seems that none of us have it completely right. I can't speak for others but I think that sometimes I take something fti said years ago and embed it in my mind without full understanding. I might do what I believe he was suggesting a few times and have good results, then I am sure I have got it right. It's only when you go back and read through again, while you are trading, that you realise the error of your ways. I would not jump in on EUR if my GBP position had...
I think it is all within us. We take what Fti has presented and make it our own. There are no set rules that I can see. Just protect the book and flow.

Matters not how you do it. Just that you do it successfully.

I believe Fti stated at one point not to try and be him....be better.
  • #40,786
  • May 24, 2013 11:09pm May 24, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} little detail.when a scout poorly? PS "turn the wind" is carried in the cross-pair (EU bad > turn in GU etc.)
Mixing Apples and Oranges – Have you ever done this; you see the EURUSD trading higher so you buy GBPUSD because it “hasn’t moved yet”. That’s a mistake. Most of the time the reason the GBPUSD hasn’t moved yet is because its already overbought or some 4:30am UK news was bearish. Don’t mix apples and oranges; if EURUSD looks bid buy EURUSD.
( jimmy young )

salaam
  • #40,787
  • Edited 3:46am May 25, 2013 3:23am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting mr.kho
{quote} Mixing Apples and Oranges – Have you ever done this; you see the EURUSD trading higher so you buy GBPUSD because it “hasn’t moved yet”. That’s a mistake. Most of the time the reason the GBPUSD hasn’t moved yet is because its already overbought or some 4:30am UK news was bearish. Don’t mix apples and oranges; if EURUSD looks bid buy EURUSD. ( jimmy young ) salaam
disaster division into small pieces ... and small pieces Forget

I ONLY mix!

Have you ever seen that cross-pairs moved
at the same time?
deployment positions in one pair is different as
in the two?
How much is the average volatility EU and GU? etc.
  • #40,788
  • Edited 7:26am May 25, 2013 3:52am | Edited 7:26am
Quoting fti
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=110779399129853
Similar video I put on thread two years ago

This video has continued.
The dog catching a wedding bouquet (which belongs to his owner) and throw the wedding bouquet to the sea for dolphin (savior).Because dolphin has his lady
  • #40,789
  • May 25, 2013 4:37am May 25, 2013 4:37am
in one day when I understand Sunzi and egor, I understood why junior trader vomiting on the
keyboard.
fighter entered(MO in AOW), peeps(ego) only reacts.
  • #40,790
  • May 25, 2013 8:47am May 25, 2013 8:47am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} I think it is all within us. We take what Fti has presented and make it our own. There are no set rules that I can see. Just protect the book and flow. Matters not how you do it. Just that you do it successfully. I believe Fti stated at one point not to try and be him....be better.
Well said tubguy! What's the answer to when to flip, exit or rescue? Silly question! You should know what you are going to do if the market moves against you, before you enter the trade. Doesn't it depend on the terrain you are trading in? Your MM? etc? Understanding these things (the trading stuff that fti has been talking about for thousands of posts) is the only way to think about the risks of your trade. You guys are talking like there is only one right approach, and that is silly. And, given the heavy manipulation in the markets today, it might be a fatal decision to assume that the GBP and EUR move in harmony (hint: if one is moving and the other is lagging, the market is sending you a message and it's a good idea to listen).

fti has created a great trading thread here, and we owe it to him to maintain a professional conversation here. Instead of advocating one approach or the other, post something that shows what you did, why you did it, and why it worked. Explain how the thread helped you figure out what to do, when to do it, etc. Or, show something that didn't work, and include your analysis of what went wrong.

Finally, someone here recently wanted to talk to people who had blown their account. Really? I assume everyone here is trying to grow their account, so wouldn't it be better to talk to someone who has a track record of increasing their account?

OK, I've had my little Saturday morning rant. LOL -- now back to weekend chart work.
  • #40,791
  • May 25, 2013 10:05am May 25, 2013 10:05am
One day, one professional trader, he began
teaching professional trading.But since much loved his disciples, therefore adapted learning for them.And students always waited until the teacher
devises ...
  • #40,792
  • May 25, 2013 11:49am May 25, 2013 11:49am
Quoting Gro
One day, one professional trader, he beganteaching professional trading.But since much loved his disciples, therefore adapted learning for them.And students always waited until the teacherdevises ...
I'm not clear what you mean gro.
  • #40,793
  • May 25, 2013 12:05pm May 25, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I'm not clear what you mean gro.
FTI had to make a lot of care and limitations in
teaching.
  • #40,794
  • May 25, 2013 12:15pm May 25, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} FTI had to make a lot of care and limitations inteaching.
someone here recently wanted to talk to
people who had blown their account.

little good not create big happiness, therefore nobody not do. small evil not jeopardize, therefore nobody do not notice. small evil accumulates and unhappiness is done.
  • #40,795
  • May 25, 2013 3:07pm May 25, 2013 3:07pm
regarding fiber/cable and "hedging"(I guess you can call it that way, though the correlation is far from 100%). There's a reason why you took the initial position in one pair and not the other and probably your experience is right(especially since when you entered your initial trade you were calm and now, when you want to hedge, you're stressed).

for instance:

Friday, come to work, cable at 1.513, nice tl, the level was marked from the previous drop 2 months ago or when it was, h1 ma100 there, had no ideas and was pissed for closing to early my yen longs. Was actually considering not trading at all(missing profits is what I know kills me most). Bam... "nice, I make quota for today, short cable"(had lot to work, didn't have much time to watch the market, hurray, I'll make it fast, happy bunny).

read on a retail site about what a "nice position to go short". Lights start flashing; I'm with the dumb money. Look at the cross, it's close to .86. Definitely I'm with the dumb money. Close with some 20 odds pips profit, open e/u short(and make money and happy happy joy joy, but that's irrelevant).

Let's say I don't switch and stay with my cable short and it turns sour(the level held in the end, but barely); why would I go long e/u? The story was about where u/j was going. If it was going down, than probably e/g would go down too, right? I'd sell the strong market(bad, but hey, we all make mistakes) and, than... to make up, I... buy the weak market(really... why?! I'd be a bloody idiot... making a mistake is fine, insisting in stupidity is not).

plus, you're already in that market; you got into the rhythm. It's hard to get into one rhythm, don't start anew and try to dance two dances in the same time... It's hard enough as it is to make money. My 2 cents.
  • #40,796
  • May 25, 2013 7:58pm May 25, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} disaster division into small pieces ... and small pieces Forget I ONLY mix! Have you ever seen that cross-pairs movedat the same time?deployment positions in one pair is different asin the two?How much is the average volatility EU and GU? etc.
sorry, had making this thread a little messy

From the furnace of controversy comes the light of knowledge.
( traider)

“Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are.”

salaam
  • #40,797
  • Edited May 26, 2013 12:47am May 25, 2013 11:04pm | Edited May 26, 2013 12:47am
I am catholic.

but if you need understand your mind. Read this.
http://www.accesstoinsight.org/lib/t...ah/living.html

regards
Attached Image
  • #40,798
  • May 26, 2013 12:59am May 26, 2013 12:59am
Quoting fti
I am catholic. but if you need understand your mind. Read this.http://www.accesstoinsight.org/lib/t...ah/living.html regards {image}
Inserted Video
  • #40,799
  • May 26, 2013 2:31am May 26, 2013 2:31am
I like the quotes mr kho and fti.

Regarding earlier comments - I'm not trying to become a carbon copy of fti, I was merely pointing out the danger of misunderstanding something he said and then using it as an excuse to trade like a fool.

However, my outlook on trading and this thread is probably different to the more experienced traders here. I had very little experience in FX before I happily stumbled upon this gem, so my knowledge of these markets is based almost entirely on what I have learned here + my own personal experience.
  • #40,800
  • May 26, 2013 2:45am May 26, 2013 2:45am
I agree with your posting, all of these indicators are tools not REASONS to take trades and the more you put on the more confusing it gets. The markets are indeed 'live beasts' and I like to simply trade on price action, looking at what is happening now as the reason to take the trade. I may use an indicator such as a moving average or the CCI as confirmations, but I would never take trades off of lagging indicators.
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