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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,761
  • May 23, 2013 2:25pm May 23, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote}at least you amuse yourself I suppose. Read post 10,143, you don't have to listen to me, listen to fti. or read post 40,098 where he says that scouts are expendable...
but who or why rescue, or why turn of wind?

PS you try 20 times -5% ... that best!
  • #40,762
  • May 23, 2013 2:35pm May 23, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} but who or why rescue, or why turn of wind? PS you try 20 times -5% ... that best!
Scout goes to sleep, I goes to sleep, enemy goes to sleep ...
goodnight
  • #40,763
  • May 23, 2013 6:35pm May 23, 2013 6:35pm
"Win large, lose small" is an approach you might consider. This implies that it is necessary to cut the scout trade with a small loss to protect your margin account.
  • #40,764
  • May 23, 2013 9:40pm May 23, 2013 9:40pm
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} hey Nomadic, Regarding your question about potentially buying at the top of a trend. If you had entered the market with your scout then position size is insignificant. Only after the market begins to move in your favour would you being to scale into the position for your attack. Only when you being to attack does your exposure and risk begin to increase. So you must be careful and well timed when you decide to attack. So if you had bought at the top of a major uptrend you would notice the top occur on the 5m chart first and trend on the...
Great indepth reply!

Will take it all on board. Thanks.
  • #40,765
  • May 23, 2013 9:45pm May 23, 2013 9:45pm
Would love to hear more from people who wiped out their account (demo or live) and what you thought went wrong - in the hopes to avoid it myself.
  • #40,766
  • May 24, 2013 3:03am May 24, 2013 3:03am
Hi ukmanthailand and gro

as we all know Fti has said a number of times 'scouts are expendable'. Expendable to me does not always mean I must kill.

      1. ex·pend·a·ble

      /ikˈspendəbəl/Adjective

      1. (of an object) Designed to be used only once and then abandoned or destroyed.
      2. Of little significance when compared to an overall purpose, and therefore able to be abandoned.

I personally have found it to my advantage to use more than one scout often and generally abandon some or all to be collected/soaked up during a later trade/battle. I nearly always have some scouts in the field to help relay info and feel back to me, I accept I only have about a 50% chance of being right on my entries so I have a strategy to try to prevent loss that allows for my limitations in reading the market, I guess I personally lean more towards the second part of this definition in my trading.

AOW.
MY RESPONABLITY
18. In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns.
19. Thus it may be known that the leader of armies is the arbiter of the people’s
fate, the man on whom it depends whether the nation shall be in
peace or in peril.

MY SCOUTS RESPONBILITY TO ME.
1. Sun Tzu said: Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the
enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has
to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted.
2. Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does
not allow the enemy’s will to be imposed on him.
7. You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only attack places
which are undefended. You can ensure the safety of your defense if you
only hold positions that cannot be attacked.

MY RESPONABLITY TO STRATEGISE.
21. The natural formation of the country is the soldier’s best ally; but a power
of estimating the adversary, of controlling the forces of victory, and of
shrewdly calculating difficulties, dangers and distances, constitutes the
test of a great general.
22. He who knows these things, and in fighting puts his knowledge into practice,
will win his battles. He who knows them not, nor practices them, will
surely be defeated.

MY RESPONSIBIITY TO MY BOOK.
34. Thus the skillful general conducts his army just as though he were leading
a single man, willy-nilly, by the hand.

Regards

Phil.

-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #40,767
  • May 24, 2013 3:40am May 24, 2013 3:40am
Nice post Phil.

My apologies for bickering on the thread - I wasn't really adding anything useful to the discussion, sorry.
  • #40,768
  • May 24, 2013 4:23am May 24, 2013 4:23am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Nice post Phil. My apologies for bickering on the thread - I wasn't really adding anything useful to the discussion, sorry.

Hi ukmanthailand

thanks.

you are as entitled to your opinion as is the next person, this is fti's thread and he encourages trading discussion here, I believe it is helpful to everyone to hear others opinions.

I am not trading for the next few weeks and will not be around much, I see you have started your full time endeavour in this field now, I wish you every success.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #40,769
  • May 24, 2013 5:09am May 24, 2013 5:09am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi ukmanthailand thanks. you are as entitled to your opinion as is the next person, this is fti's thread and he encourages trading discussion here, I believe it is helpful to everyone to hear others opinions. I am not trading for the next few weeks and will not be around much, I see you have started your full time endeavour in this field now, I wish you every success. Regards Phil.
Thanks Phil. So far it's been much harder going than I anticipated. Until I have a decent amount of foreign capital I'm not willing to trade in a simialr size (in ratio to the account) as I did on smaller accounts so making a decent profit is hard work.

Enjoy the next few weeks, whatever you are doing.

Cheers

Edit: I am enjoying it immensely though, I am learning a lot about myself and the markets. Probably things I should have learrned before but there's nothing like risk to focus your attention.
  • #40,770
  • May 24, 2013 10:13am May 24, 2013 10:13am
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=110779399129853
  • #40,771
  • May 24, 2013 11:28am May 24, 2013 11:28am
Quoting fti
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=110779399129853
Hello FTI and Friends
Hope you all well.
Nice video "If they can so can we " Peace , Friendship , Love

Reading the Thread got across interesting post of FTI about Learning Rescue
Want to share it with you friends.
Post 974
" for trader who just beging to learn rescue, you must stay the strategy in the light of the developments. There must be no rescue of badly timed positions, as there will be no badly timed positions, in the wild volatile flux. If wrong , turn on wind,and be nimble, do not overstay large positions. There will be enough range to recover by turning in high volatility. This is abnormal markets, melt downs are likely, including systemic failures of market structures. The terrain has changed. The nimble survives, some elephants will fall most will be in pain.

The best strategy for this type of volatility markets is to trade breaks and run away with the profits quickly. Be opportunist don't be hero nor sitting duck. hit & run!
"
Have a nice weekend everyone !!!
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,772
  • May 24, 2013 11:57am May 24, 2013 11:57am
Quoting GEfx
"Win large, lose small" is an approach you might consider. This implies that it is necessary to cut the scout trade with a small loss to protect your margin account.
accept small losses and hope for big profit?

three-day battle, and the result is 0, its best
accept "small loss" is hell ... but it happens
rgs
  • #40,773
  • Edited 12:45pm May 24, 2013 12:01pm | Edited 12:45pm
@ Michael

This is only my humble opinion, and I could quite easisly be wrong, but my experience of trading cable in current market conditions has led me to avoid turning on the wind unless it's really, really necessary. Most of the time, patience, steady nerves and a well placed rescue will work better. Many times the price will come back to where you are without the need for a rescue, but if you don't put one in, you will have missed an opportunity of course.

As I say, I am not giving trading advice - I'm not qualified. It's just that I think turning on the wind is dangerous in these markets, particularly when trading cable. This could all change tomorrow or whenever, it's not meant to be a prediction or rigid mindset, but bear in mind that post was made nearly 5 1/2 years ago.

EDIT: I know you probably aren't trading cable, I specified that pair because it's the one I trade almost exclusively. Therefore, although I look at EUR and JPY for conformation / information I am not as familair with their price action in general. Cable tends to move up and down a lot on it's journey to new price leves on many days....I've often seen it drift lower before a news release, only to fly up on the news to a high and then come back down to where it was before the drift down (or vice versa). Turning in the wind during that kind of action could land you in big trouble - in fact, the paranoid me sometimes thinks that this is the purpose of the moves.
  • #40,774
  • May 24, 2013 12:06pm May 24, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Nice post Phil. My apologies for bickering on the thread - I wasn't really adding anything useful to the discussion, sorry.
bickering on the thread is "melting precious metals"
  • #40,775
  • May 24, 2013 12:13pm May 24, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} bickering on the thread is "melting precious metals"
I think I know what you were trying to say Gro. By flipping a position, I am still trying to save my troops / book. I just didn't want people to think they had to fight to the death for every scout they enter because it isn't always the best option (IMO) and logically speaking, when you flip, you do take a loss on your initial position (unless I have misunderstood the procedure completely).
  • #40,776
  • May 24, 2013 12:33pm May 24, 2013 12:33pm
Hoping good health is with you.
Attached Image
  • #40,777
  • May 24, 2013 1:25pm May 24, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote}I think I know what you were trying to say Gro. By flipping a position, I am still trying to save my troops / book. I just didn't want people to think they had to fight to the death for every scout they enter because it isn't always the best option (IMO) and logically speaking, when you flip, you do take a loss on your initial position (unless I have misunderstood the procedure completely).
if it rescue scout, using fibo or more.OK?
If you are "turning on the wind" how much you use ...?

scout is not hocus-pocus, but the first starting position in your fishing net
  • #40,778
  • May 24, 2013 1:35pm May 24, 2013 1:35pm
To my understanding....

Flipping a position does not have to mean kill and flip every time, terrain, emotions, size, distance to name but a few things must be taken into consideration at the point of decision.

I have said this before but 'strategies within strategies', it is YOU and YOUR actions that decide when YOU take a loss big or small, remember what we have been told 'rigidity kills'.

I am not saying we should always fight for every soldier, casualties are part of war and one battle should not decide the outcome of any war but the decisions and choices are YOURS.

The market does not constantly move in one direction, nor should we! pump and rest, balance and imbalance.

AOW.

5. In all fighting, the direct method may be used for joining battle, but indirect
methods will be needed in order to secure victory.
6. Indirect tactics, efficiently applied, are inexhaustible as Heaven and Earth,
unending as the flow of rivers and streams; like the sun and moon, they
end but to begin anew; like the four seasons, they pass away to return
once more.
7. There are not more than five musical notes, yet the combinations of these
five give rise to more melodies than can ever be heard.
8. There are not more than five primary colors (blue, yellow, red, white, and
black), yet in combination they produce more hues than can ever been
seen.
9. There are not more than five cardinal tastes (sour, acrid, salt, sweet, bitter),
yet combinations of them yield more flavors than can ever be tasted.
10. In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack–the direct and
the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of
maneuvers.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #40,779
  • May 24, 2013 1:53pm May 24, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} if it rescue scout, using fibo or more.OK?If you are "turning on the wind" how much you use ...? scout is not hocus-pocus, but the first starting position in your fishing net
little detail.
when a scout poorly?

PS "turn the wind" is carried in the cross-pair (EU bad > turn in GU etc.)
  • #40,780
  • May 24, 2013 2:27pm May 24, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting Gro
{quote} little detail.when a scout poorly? PS "turn the wind" is carried in the cross-pair (EU bad > turn in GU etc.)

I did think about this recently, rather the killing troubled positions on the EUR/USD you can turn on the GBP/USD and wait for the trend to come back in your favour at a later date to deal with the EUR/USD position.

Not sure if this would have effects on the mindset though, and if you ended up in trouble on the GBP/USD etc.
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