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  • #1,401
  • May 24, 2013 12:18am May 24, 2013 12:18am
Quoting djmoloy71
Another trade guys on Usdjpy on 24.05.13.How can u miss these.These will just flash and say trade me short trade me short {image}
What's the reason for this trade? PFL has just formed yesterday (in my opinion), and you went short. Towards the peak formation. Something SM says against.

I personally wouldn't trade it just because an M is forming there. What's your definition of PF?
  • #1,402
  • May 24, 2013 12:19am May 24, 2013 12:19am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} Thanks for the honest answer Moloy. 70% sounds like you're a human. Definitely more realistic than the hyped and promised 90% Holy Grail by SM. So feel free to share your losing trades as well That way we can all contribute to everyone's understanding. Welcome to the club Moloy.

Actually i am an aggressive trader sometimes i trade early ASIA and late NY(As you can see on my previous trades) which is not recommended by steve.Thats why i loose many trade.I think if any one can cherry pick good setups 80% is not impossible and Thanks again.
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,403
  • Edited 1:13am May 24, 2013 12:28am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} What's the reason for this trade? PFL has just formed yesterday (in my opinion), and you went short. Towards the peak formation. Something SM says against. I personally wouldn't trade it just because an M is forming there. What's your definition of PF?

If you look at a weekly or a monthly chart the PFH i am trading on was the highest point on the chart since 2009.04.05 . Which has more significance to the world and specially to me then the PFL you are talking about.If you see a monthly chart, price went above that level but couldn't stay there and now trading below that level and look there is a very interesting pins to the mayo on a monthly chart . You can definitely expect price to bounce right there.Hactor deville says if a battle begins between a monthly chart and a weekly chart monthly chart always prevails.Your PFL is from a M15 chart and My PFH is referring from a monthly chart.Who do you think has the greater strength and last but not the least remember what steve says if you have enough room to trade this pattern then you can trade it.I think by doing so the winning percentage will fall and to do it you need to think advance and have some confluence to support you, that i have today.
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,404
  • May 24, 2013 4:37am May 24, 2013 4:37am
do you have a newsletter service?
  • #1,405
  • Edited 5:13am May 24, 2013 4:49am | Edited 5:13am
Man, that's definitely some new material you put in there. I never touch W1 or MN charts. Steve said it's irrelevant. You only need the past 3-5 days worth of data he said.

It's good that you are combining the teaching from other people into your system. Heard of Deville. Never had access to his material though.

Everyone will agree with you in regards to the confluence of events. But it's a matter of recognizing these events in the first place that I have trouble with.

So far I've listed what works and doesn't in Steve's teaching for me, in my previous post. But I'll redo it again here. I hope anyone can contribute to this too.

What works:

Peak formation (if you can spot it in real live that is) on 1H and 15M entry
EMA bounces
Stop hunt
M&W Pattern
Head and Shoulder
Safety trade (but often turn into a third leg or broker reset)
TDI (if used in conjunction with other events, never alone)
Pivot points (if used in conjunction with other events, never alone)
Avoiding the news
London Opening and New York Counter Trade setups

What doesn't:

Steve's generic model of Asian accumulation, stop hunt, London trend, then NY reversal, then back to Asian accumulation
Asian accumulation
Level counting (it's good that Moloy can do it well)
Mid week reversal and weekly cycle
Market won't move in the same direction for 3 consecutive sessions
Market won't move in the same direction for 3 consecutive days
HOW LOW
Brinks trade
ADR levels
Yesterday Hi-Lo
Half a batman
23 pips stop loss (too big for my liking)
Fractional Disparity
  • #1,406
  • May 24, 2013 5:22am May 24, 2013 5:22am
It's not often I'll say anything positive about SM~, however on the rare occasion a half-Batman appears, it seems to work well.
  • #1,407
  • May 24, 2013 5:29am May 24, 2013 5:29am
All of those stuffs work in the right market context.
  • #1,408
  • May 24, 2013 6:32am May 24, 2013 6:32am
Quoting Duffgen
It's not often I'll say anything positive about SM~, however on the rare occasion a half-Batman appears, it seems to work well.
I would say his whole concept is rare to begin with. He did say there are only 3-4 setups per week. Looking at this week alone, among all majors I can see 1 EU on Tuesday SHLR. 1 Safety Trade GU on Tuesday. 1 MPF UF&UJ on Thursday. So that's 4. It's the chasing around on which pairs the MM gonna use that is confusing. When you think they are using a major, they are doing the crosses and vice versa.

Steve never mentions this but I think we're in a cat and mouse game trying to find out which pairs are the MMs will be using today and try to trade them.

I wish he would update his course and give a more complete understanding. I have a feeling that he doesn't want to share his utmost secret. Understandable though. Keep the best secret, charge people $5000, and share just enough so they'll have enough "belief" that his method works.
  • #1,409
  • May 24, 2013 9:07am May 24, 2013 9:07am
Weekly structure guys.... YOUR OPINION.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 24.05.13 weekly structure.png Size: 38 KB
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,410
  • Edited 1:46pm May 24, 2013 9:29am | Edited 1:46pm
2 nice trade setups on eurusd today both trades would pay.I didn't took it though i don't like taking more then 5 trades per week. Seems like our pinbar entry was full a batman isn't it . Just kidding Nice W .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 24.05.13 m trade.png Size: 35 KB
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,411
  • May 24, 2013 9:47am May 24, 2013 9:47am
Quoting Ishtana
Man, that's definitely some new material you put in there. I never touch W1 or MN charts. Steve said it's irrelevant. You only need the past 3-5 days worth of data he said. It's good that you are combining the teaching from other people into your system. Heard of Deville. Never had access to his material though. Everyone will agree with you in regards to the confluence of events. But it's a matter of recognizing these events in the first place that I have trouble with. So far I've listed what works and doesn't in Steve's teaching for me, in my previous...

pivot points-> Steve's pivot is total useless to me,I use 0 hour GMT pivot and some times 0 hour EST.
Avoiding the news-> If you see Hactors news trading secrets videos.You will feel exited when big news announce comes because its money making time.
Level counting-> Its tough sometimes.I just try i don't know if i am good at it or not.
Mid week reversal and weekly cycle->Very tough to identify.
Market won't move in the same direction for 3 consecutive sessions-> Total garbage.
Market won't move in the same direction for 3 consecutive days-> Total garbage.
ADR levels-> Very essential in trading. I just use hactors ADR indicator.
Yesterday Hi-Lo->Very important in forex trading.
Half a batman->I am not a big fan of this pattern.
23 pips stop loss-> Total garbage.
Fractional Disparity-> A very very tough thing to understand Because it very tough to know what pair is going to move today.
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,412
  • Edited 1:42pm May 24, 2013 10:18am | Edited 1:42pm
A nice trade setup today on GBPCHF for all the price action trader from a H4 chart. . Look 9 days of L3 behavior.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfh42.png Size: 31 KB
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,413
  • May 24, 2013 10:44am May 24, 2013 10:44am
Quoting sweetkiwi
do you have a newsletter service?

Nope.
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,414
  • May 27, 2013 9:53am May 27, 2013 9:53am
Quoting Ishtana
Man, that's definitely some new material you put in there. I never touch W1 or MN charts. Steve said it's irrelevant. You only need the past 3-5 days worth of data he said. It's good that you are combining the teaching from other people into your system. Heard of Deville. Never had access to his material though. Everyone will agree with you in regards to the confluence of events. But it's a matter of recognizing these events in the first place that I have trouble with. So far I've listed what works and doesn't in Steve's teaching for me, in my previous...
@Ishtana.
Steve oversimplifies in his teaching, there is nothing in trading that works all the time. He was just trying to highlight the most probable patterns. Everyone is different and sees things slightly differently. I am hopeless at level counting whereas djmoloy71 seems pretty good at it - though he may well just cherry-pick the most recognisable ones, after all we don't need to trade every pair or every day.

I think you need to work at your PF recognition because in your comments upon Moloy's UJ short, the ONLY PF on the chart was the PF high he had marked. It was Moloy's previous trade (off the Pinbar) which was the risky one. If you keep seeing PFs at the end of every 3 or 4 pushes then you will overtrade and reduce your win% so that you will never be able to trade heavy.

I am amazed at some of the tings you say don't work - even though I know you just mean that they don't work for you at present. For me Stop-hunt action, yesterday's Hi/Lo and use of some sort of ADR measurement are like gold nuggets to me. Remember they are just probabilities so need confluence and confirmation.
  • #1,415
  • May 27, 2013 10:00am May 27, 2013 10:00am
Hi ianf0ster,
Are you still trading with Kevin Lowry and Bijan? The last I heard they moved out of CompassFX's omNovia room to somewhere, probably to a large Skype group I suppose. Do you know?
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #1,416
  • May 27, 2013 1:04pm May 27, 2013 1:04pm
Not the right day to take a trade guys..... lets see what happens....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp 27.05.13 bat man trade live.png Size: 34 KB
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,417
  • May 28, 2013 2:55am May 28, 2013 2:55am
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} @Ishtana.Steve oversimplifies in his teaching, there is nothing in trading that works all the time. He was just trying to highlight the most probable patterns. Everyone is different and sees things slightly differently. I am hopeless at level counting whereas djmoloy71 seems pretty good at it - though he may well just cherry-pick the most recognisable ones, after all we don't need to trade every pair or every day. I think you need to work at your PF recognition because in your comments upon Moloy's UJ short, the ONLY PF on the chart was...
@ianf0ster

Indeed, even up to this day, I'm still having trouble picking genuine PF. Early on in this thread, thanks to everyone who contributed, I made a general definition of a PF:

  1. Highly visible in 1H chart. Less in 4H chart. Do not use 15M chart to identify PFs.
  2. Involves high volatility to trap both sides. Big range movement.
  3. The formation may involve price pattern (M&W, A&V, H&S, etc)
  4. There may be confirmation in form of vector candles moving away from the PFs.

I don't really quantify level or pushes as PF, I look the quality of the PF. A vector candle off the M/W or H&S is my general confirmation of a PF. And I try not to overtrade, but I admit if I haven't traded anything since Monday, and it's Thursday, I got an itchy finger. But I'm getting better and be more disciplined in taking only pristine setups like SM wanted us to.

Anyway, despite this definition, I still have trouble finding it in the live price chart. Take GBP CAD today. I AM cherry picking an example here, but by doing this I'm addressing the weakness in my system.

I recognized the M as a peak formation, but had I traded this as a safety trade or even a third leg, I would've gotten stopped out. Maybe if I enter now, it becomes the real third leg. But after 2 SL, my mind would've been clouded and I wouldn't have traded this even if it works out well.

This is why I still have not trusted my edge yet.

I'll talk about hi-lo and ADR on my next post.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcadh1.png Size: 38 KB
  • #1,418
  • May 28, 2013 3:14am May 28, 2013 3:14am
Here's my understanding:

Yesterday Hi-Lo (Aqua color on the chart):

This is the area where previous trap volume is often made. If today's stop hunt distances itself from it (all subjective judgment of course), then you can be sure that price will move away from it. If it is broken, then the previous trap volume area is no longer valid. I'm still unsure how the 30-90 min rule applies to yesterday hi-lo because I've seen on numerous occasions when the 2 hour rule seems to be irrelevant because the HOD and LOD remain untouched.

ADR (white color on the chart):

This is the arsenal of the dealer. They are given a certain number of pips to move per day per currency and this number divided by 3 is meant to explain the likelihood of how the dealers will distribute the pips on daily basis. It also acts as dynamic support and resistance levels because they change according to price. When they are hit, it gives one clue of reversal. In real life, I have yet to use this for a concrete trading decision. The pushes often don't reflect the ADR/3. And it is totally useless if you trade the London session as the ADR value (not the line) is not yet calculated.

And finally, both are not meant to be traded on their own, but to be part of the confluence of events.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 86 KB
  • #1,419
  • May 28, 2013 3:37am May 28, 2013 3:37am
Closed the eurgbp trade for +17 pips manually.
$$ Buy @ Lod & Sell @ Hod $$
  • #1,420
  • May 28, 2013 4:28am May 28, 2013 4:28am
Sorry DJM, your half a batman is nothing like what it ought to be. You need a strong move in one direction, followed by a quick retrace to a level of consolidation. Then look out for an entry in the opposite direction to the original move. Maybe this screenshot will help somebody. You will NOT see this pattern every week.
Attached Image
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