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  • #101
  • May 19, 2013 12:19pm May 19, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting jgray110
It's easy for even the newest trader to make demo money, two 5 period simple moving averages set to high and low, above the high is up, below the low is down.
omg, stop it already.

cuz now you are just making sht up.

trading these charts is not anywhere nearly that easy.

in fact, trading is quite simply difficult, to the extent that we might even call it impossible to win in today's extremely volatile markets.

for you to say that all that a newbie needs is two simple moving averages and to suggest that this simple setup will provide a foolproof breakout system is deceptive to the point that i might call it criminally fraudulent.

please do not attempt to cheat or defraud or mislead, not on my watch sir.

trading will continue in 3.66 hours.

happy trading.
contact zero 510-684-1114
  • #102
  • May 19, 2013 12:41pm May 19, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} that nothing works in the long run which yourself and others state. And I won't even bother to address the insane notion that one can legitamately discount a method as unprofitable when one has not even attempted it. It is a proud and narrow minded man who equates his own and "known" others failure at an endevour as being limits of human capacity. They refuse to entertain the notion that ideas ill favored by the majority (95percent losers) maybe worth exploring. At one time the earth was most definately flat, the sun and universe revolved...

Nothing works long term, on the basis there is 1 - 2 % of us which are profitable, then we can assume that is not the case, if I thought that would I still be trading and slogging on ??

Ever consider I'm smart enough to see the flaw instantly with H4 trading, it's a pretty HUGE Flaw, yes after the fact it looks great but NO!!

I'm profitable at times, weeks maybe months then slip back to old habits, / market kicks my ass, all part of the game, like you, hard to find time, I have months and years without barely looking at a chart, then times of no work where I focus on trading.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #103
  • May 19, 2013 12:47pm May 19, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting slam.dunk
{quote} omg, stop it already. cuz now you are just making sht up. trading these charts is not anywhere nearly that easy. in fact, trading is quite simply difficult, to the extent that we might even call it impossible to win in today's extremely volatile markets. for you to say that all that a newbie needs is two simple moving averages and to suggest that this simple setup will provide a foolproof breakout system is deceptive to the point that i might call it criminally fraudulent. please do not attempt to cheat or defraud or mislead, not on my watch...

Looks at my chart, hmmmmm , I was trading off a 15ema High / Low, doesn't work for me strangely, but it should in theory work great, nice and simple.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #104
  • May 19, 2013 1:31pm May 19, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting slam.dunk
{quote} omg, stop it already. cuz now you are just making sht up. trading these charts is not anywhere nearly that easy. in fact, trading is quite simply difficult, to the extent that we might even call it impossible to win in today's extremely volatile markets. for you to say that all that a newbie needs is two simple moving averages and to suggest that this simple setup will provide a foolproof breakout system is deceptive to the point that i might call it criminally fraudulent. please do not attempt to cheat or defraud or mislead, not on my watch...
You really found something. May I send you some money?
  • #105
  • Edited 6:55pm May 19, 2013 1:45pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Looks at my chart, hmmmmm , I was trading off a 15ema High / Low, doesn't work for me strangely, but it should in theory work great, nice and simple.
agreed, the currency markets are purely random.

lets do an update of my numbers.

view #1:
EURAUD 89
GBPAUD 50
EURCHF 45
EURGBP 39
CADCHF 25
NZDCHF 23
EURNZD 22
EURCAD 20
GBPCHF 6
NZDCAD -2
GBPNZD -17
GBPCAD -19
AUDCHF -44
AUDNZD -67
AUDCAD -69

view #2:
EURAUD 89
AUDCAD -69
AUDNZD -67
GBPAUD 50
EURCHF 45
AUDCHF -44
EURGBP 39
CADCHF 25
NZDCHF 23
EURNZD 22
EURCAD 20
GBPCAD -19
GBPNZD -17
GBPCHF 6
NZDCAD -2

to play the above numbers:

sell at or near +100
buy at or near -100
close position at or near 0.

you can form triangles to calculate for arbitrageable situations(imbalances), as follows:

euraud+audnzd=eurnzd
eurgbp+gbpchf=eurchf
euraud+audchf=eurchf

my firm goal regarding this project has always been that my work should be worthy of taking home the nobel prize in economics.

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics

my demo account login is:

Broker: http://www.citifxpro.com/metatrader-4
Login : 2089587303
Password : elu7brc (read only password)

the euraud is in the hot seat.

the charts are moving now.

tune in or get out of my way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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contact zero 510-684-1114
  • #106
  • May 19, 2013 9:04pm May 19, 2013 9:04pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Nothing works long term, on the basis there is 1 - 2 % of us which are profitable, then we can assume that is not the case, if I thought that would I still be trading and slogging on ?? Ever consider I'm smart enough to see the flaw instantly with H4 trading, it's a pretty HUGE Flaw, yes after the fact it looks great but NO!! I'm profitable at times, weeks maybe months then slip back to old habits, / market kicks my ass, all part of the game, like you, hard to find time, I have months and years without barely looking at a chart, then...
Yes, and years ago people were smart enough to "know" the earth was flat but they didn't go to the "edge" of it to actually find out .

I'm thinking you're maybe smart enough to know that true market sentiment is reflected far more accurately in higher TF charts, (ie. CHARTING) not in 15min "systems".

Systems rise and fall in profitability depending on conditions hence traders go with 1 for a while, then jump ship in a bad patch.

Charting higher TF's I believe is somewhat of an art, to spot the emergence of various TF trends and spot entry points that give great R/R trades.

You do know that a trading history of 50% and even less can give very profitable results right?, especially if you manage your trade sizes to the strength of your conviction that the trade will be a profitable one.

This is my approach for this quarter and rest of the year.

Do you really think the players who make this market watch 15min charts or use arbitrary systems?

15min charts are noise, hence you find yourself jumping from "system to system"...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #107
  • May 19, 2013 9:45pm May 19, 2013 9:45pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
{quote} You see? You cannot make a living off forex, thus you cannot accept it. Interesting to know who is really who here. LOL.
"Making a living off forex" is a statement that has different meaning among different persons. For someone who has an account size of $10,000 and has monthly bills of $5,000, then "making a living off forex" requires a monthly return of 50%. For someone trading with $250,000 and the same amount of monthly bills ($5,000), then a monthly return of only 2.5% is needed. Obviously, the first example (50% ROI) is much more difficult, requires taking greater risk and is probably unrealistic. However the second example is much more realistic and very possible for an experienced trader.

The likeliness of someone surviving long term in forex is inversely proportional to the amount of risk they expose themselves to. That is why my personal approach to trading is low risk for long term gains. Compounded gains to be more specific. So for example, if someone produces an average of 2.5% ROI monthly on a starting balance of $10,000, after 20 years they will have $3.7 million. With that kind of money most people can pay their monthly bills and "make a living" - so long as they don't live extravagant.
  • #108
  • May 20, 2013 10:26am May 20, 2013 10:26am
So you mean you need to have at a standard size account for you to survive or make a living out of FOREX, the mini account will not do?
  • #109
  • May 20, 2013 12:25pm May 20, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote}I'm thinking you're maybe smart enough to know that true market sentiment is reflected far more accurately in higher TF charts, (ie. CHARTING) not in 15min "systems".

H4 gives the years trend or maybe 3 - 4 months trend, if your not using a 1000+ SL and scaling into positions with the longer term trend and holding for months, then you are not using it correctly, a lot are trying to scalp of H4 charts and read BS Candlestick patterns which have zero predictive value.

Long term trading, trade Stocks, do not use Forex for Long term trading it's to volatile, it's suited to Scalp / Intraday trading.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #110
  • May 20, 2013 2:05pm May 20, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} H4 gives the years trend or maybe 3 - 4 months trend, if your not using a 1000+ SL and scaling into positions with the longer term trend and holding for months, then you are not using it correctly, a lot are trying to scalp of H4 charts and read BS Candlestick patterns which have zero predictive value. Long term trading, trade Stocks, do not use Forex for Long term trading it's to volatile, it's suited to Scalp / Intraday trading.
1000+ pip SL

Lol...

The GBPUSD range for the whole of last year was only a little more than this.

You really are showing your presumptuous ignorance on the matter, which is not surprising since you haven't tried it.

I'm done here, good luck and all the best.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #111
  • May 20, 2013 3:45pm May 20, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} 1000+ pip SL Lol... The GBPUSD range for the whole of last year was only a little more than this. You really are showing your presumptuous ignorance on the matter, which is not surprising since you haven't tried it. I'm done here, good luck and all the best.
Easier for you to think that, than contemplate your wrong about something, it would be simply ludicrous for me to try it.

And this is why people keep losing, pride and sturboness, you will keep trying H4 and losing for ever more, although very slowly at a rate you can keep topping up = guaranteed income for the banks × millions of you.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #112
  • May 20, 2013 10:53pm May 20, 2013 10:53pm
Going back to the original post, there are three main reasons why banks / brokers are profitable and most retail traders are not:

  1. Traders pay the spread, banks / brokers receive the spread
  2. Banks and brokers have larger balance sheets
  3. Retail traders often trade with out an edge


An edge here is defined as a statistically consistent advantage i.e. unique knowledge, riskless or close to riskless profit potential or an execution advantage.

What does this mean for retail traders? It means that we should review one of the very first decisions we made - what broker do I use? You should chose a broker with the tightest spreads you can because it is the one out of the three above points that you have the most control over. Sure we aren't going to receive the spread but at least we can do a better job of minimizing trading costs. With all the spread aggregators out there these days there really isnt an excuse.

After that ask your self what is my edge. If you don't know - you don't have one. Go back to the drawing board. Think unique knowledge, riskless profit or execution advantage.

Once you are confident you have an edge, reduce your trading size. Brokers / banks have larger balance sheets, you cant change that. You can however minimise this compeitive advantage by decreasing the size you trade. If you traded 1 lot on your 10k account and you start trading 0.01 lots - you have effectively increased your balance sheet by 100 times. "But what about all the profits Im going to miss out on?" I hear you say. The simple truth is that if you have read this far then you know there is fault with the sentiment of such a statement. In the industry there is a saying that 90% of traders loose 90% of their capital in 90 days. I have seen allot of evidence for it. Decrease your trading size and you might last long enough to go through a few perceived edges.

The simple truth is that most will fail because of the spread, take the above steps and you prolong your trading life at the very least.

Good luck,

Peak Alpha

  • #113
  • May 20, 2013 10:56pm May 20, 2013 10:56pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Easier for you to think that, than contemplate your wrong about something, it would be simply ludicrous for me to try it. And this is why people keep losing, pride and sturboness, you will keep trying H4 and losing for ever more, although very slowly at a rate you can keep topping up = guaranteed income for the banks × millions of you.
Thank you again for your presumptuous insight
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #114
  • May 21, 2013 4:01am May 21, 2013 4:01am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Thank you again for your presumptuous insight
Someone's got to try to keep the newbies away from H4 only and tea leaf I mean candlestick predictive trading.

Too late for you and many others to brain washed and to much time and money lost, but got to hope to alert some newbies before its to late.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #115
  • May 21, 2013 11:21pm May 21, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting leor
Am i the only person who believes 20%-50% per quarter (months at least is a realistic goal) and why do so many traders on here say its not i know a few of individuals who are doing this and some are even achieving 35% + a month could someone explain preferably someone who's actually a successful trader if that exists on here?
Success should be measured relative to oneself. A 5% profit per month can be a huge success for one but a mediocre result for another.

Importantly, you need to ask yourself how much is good enough for you.
Do not care about what other traders have achieved, only care about what you can achieve. If you are not sure how much return to aim for, then just shoot for a low target first, say 5% a month. If you can consistently achieve that, then shoot for higher ROI.

However, I am not certain if 35% a month is a realistic target. A trader might achieve that every now and then but if you play this game long enough, you will realise that consistency is the key. If you can consistently profit 10% every month, you will be ranked among the top traders.
FXPRIMUS trader
  • #116
  • May 22, 2013 3:50am May 22, 2013 3:50am
Quoting ZexyLady
{quote} Success should be measured relative to oneself. A 5% profit per month can be a huge success for one but a mediocre result for another. Importantly, you need to ask yourself how much is good enough for you. Do not care about what other traders have achieved, only care about what you can achieve. If you are not sure how much return to aim for, then just shoot for a low target first, say 5% a month. If you can consistently achieve that, then shoot for higher ROI. However, I am not certain if 35% a month is a realistic target. A trader...

Even 100% per month, is possible on a consistent basis, you've just got to be good enough to do this, very very very very good I'll add.

So I wouldn't write off any huge return claims, I watched someone trading stocks take 10K down to 2K stop work it out and run 2K into 500K+ inside of 2 years, he was very very very good.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #117
  • May 22, 2013 10:13pm May 22, 2013 10:13pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Someone's got to try to keep the newbies away from H4 only and tea leaf I mean candlestick predictive trading. Too late for you and many others to brain washed and to much time and money lost, but got to hope to alert some newbies before its to late.
To take them on a journey of system hopping no doubt

lol...

Come with me if you want to live....
  • #118
  • May 22, 2013 11:28pm May 22, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Easier for you to think that, than contemplate your wrong about something, it would be simply ludicrous for me to try it. And this is why people keep losing, pride and sturboness, you will keep trying H4 and losing for ever more, although very slowly at a rate you can keep topping up = guaranteed income for the banks × millions of you.
I would say you the best person to talk about failed trading... Try Daily and then report back. I make most my real best winners of the daily time frame.. short term stuff is imo entertainment only. but you're a 1min wonder-man.
The best indicator is price.
  • #119
  • May 22, 2013 11:31pm May 22, 2013 11:31pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Even 100% per month, is possible on a consistent basis, you've just got to be good enough to do this, very very very very good I'll add. So I wouldn't write off any huge return claims, I watched someone trading stocks take 10K down to 2K stop work it out and run 2K into 500K+ inside of 2 years, he was very very very good.
so is 1000% if you're good enough... get your head back onto the planet earth. name one person that can make 30% per month consistently for the last 10 years.

in a flying bull market anyone can make that kind of money.
The best indicator is price.
  • #120
  • May 23, 2013 11:37am May 23, 2013 11:37am
The most of the traders are failures because they have some really very much unrealistic and unreachable target set by themselves which makes it difficult for such traders to reach their goal and thus end up being failures.
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