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vsa with Malcolm

Guys how can we identify accumulation and distribution zones that are slow to develop? I'm talking about those zones that go into a trading range with low volume, without very high volume bars that can show what the SM is doing. These zones contrast with fast accumulation and distribution zones, where there is a selling/buying climax and other bars with massive volume.
Wyckoff considered these zones, and so does William O'Neil (a very successful american stock trader, that also used bits of VSA to evaluate the stock indices), but Tom Williams doesn't talk about them. I feel this is the only part VSA is missing, and maybe someone with knowledge on the Wyckoff method can give me some clues... I don't know how accurate this is but, Wyckoff traders say VSA isn't really that good identifying accumulation/distribution zones, and you need Wyckoff for that.

Here are many accumulation and consolidation examples in stocks taken from 'How to make money in stocks' by William O'Neil. Again, he's not a VSA trader but he does talk of smart money and can identify some signs of VSA. Besides he made his fortune on the stock market and made a huge study on the most successful US stocks, and these are the accumulation patterns he saw over and over in them.

In some of them you can see many VSA accumulation signs, but on other you can't, and yet they were obviously accumulated because of the massive rises they got. On the Control Data stock for example, there are many signs of weakness there on the top of the range, so if I had to guess I'd say it was in distribution, not accumulation...
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Quoting pres78
{quote} As I noted in my earlier post SM could well take out that level which should not have given way on ND simply because they could with everyone having the day off. No matter how much SM like to take advantage or manipulate the markets at a whim the levels laid out to me through VZA still hold true and are very much respected on the way up
So I am posting this just because the accuracy of the VZA levels still after all this time amazes me...

Go back and look at my original post (which I am quoting) and look at the bottom chart and then look at EU now 24 hours later... No new levels added, nothing removed. Yellow weekly fib, green split fib and two hourly blue fibs (from Thurs and Fri last week)... look at PA since I posted... All price moves have bounced from level to level to level...

Simply beautiful.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
GU Pending Shorts Green line is a 4hr pending short at the low of a ND/UT - Will adjust / close as the next bars form (when I am awake) Blue line is a Daily pending short at the low of today's NBP - inside bar {image}
Follow up...

Both pending shorts triggered today...

4hr entry (shown) was off the 4hr ND - UT (white line) was at 5230, SL was at 5285 with TP1 set at 5165 for 1.18:1 R:R. I moved my SL on the second half of this trade to BE after 1:1 was hit. That is where it sits currently.

Daily entry is shown on the chart from yesterday and was a Daily NBP right into an old daily support zone now turned resistance. Entry was 5160 with SL at the 4hr entry level of 5230 trying to cut down the risk a bit making my first target 5090 which we came to within 21pips at todays low so hopefully tommorow but we have some high impact news tommorow so who knows. SL sits still at 5230 for this Daily TF trade.

See what tommorow brings.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Patience is a virtue and oh how quickly views can change...

Yesterday I looked at EJ and UJ daily charts and thought for sure we were almost guaranteed more topside. I decided to stand aside (at least from a higher TF trade point of view, still took some intraday trades today on EJ) and not set those daily pending longs I talked about. UJ didnt matter as today printed as an inside ND bar but EJ would have triggered me into a long I would not have been happy with at the end of today.

Tommorow carries some high impact market moving items for both the Yen and USD so we could well see some crazy moves and perhaps a true sign that the markets are rolling over towards some Yen strength... Or we could also well see the SM give us a crazy looking SO signalling higher prices ahead by trapping shorts and buying in lower. Tommorow will hopefully give us some clear signs for future trading on the Yen crosses.

I am so very tempted to place a UJ short at the low of that beautiful inside bar ND but it is not quite a true ND as the volume is low but still just a touch higher than yesterday... I am going to ponder this one a bit longer.

EJ however is not so clear today was an upbar but is quite a narrow range on increased volume. Not EORM by any means but still some effort with no great results so...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
ES Pending Short - Daily

I have a pending short set at 1659 after todays increased effort upbar that made a HH than yesterday (which was a ND - UT) but could not close above the high and barely closed high than yesterdays ND close (1664 yesterday, 1665.75 today)... Highest volume in 3 days with zero progress to show for it. High was intro fresh new ground so I am banking on continued sellers on Wednesday.

Initial target at the zone shown but would not be surprised to see a return to that old October 2007 high at 1586.50

Edit - I know this is countertrend to save people from telling me this

Edit - Edit - Wow my 2500th post - GO ME!!!
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Wishing now I had set that EJ long off that daily test. Would've been nicey in profit now. Ah well onto the next one!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
ES Pending Short - Daily I have a pending short set at 1659 after todays increased effort upbar that made a HH than yesterday (which was a ND - UT) but could not close above the high and barely closed high than yesterdays ND close (1664 yesterday, 1665.75 today)... Highest volume in 3 days with zero progress to show for it. High was intro fresh new ground so I am banking on continued sellers on Wednesday. Initial target at the zone shown but would not be surprised to see a return to that old October 2007 high at 1586.50 Edit - I know this is countertrend...
Pending ES short killed and back to waiting for anything higher TF.

GU shorts still open and I am leaving SL's until tonight after FOMC if they trades are still alive and kicking I will adjust SL. The one change is that my daily TF entry part 1 has hit it's 1:1 and is closed but I have left part 2 at full risk so worst case scenario is I get SL on both open trades and end up with 2 winners, 1 BE and 1 SL.

See where we are at the end of day and I will update with a chart for GU and see if any new daily TF set-ups present. Been busy with some intraday trading today which has been good with the added volitility. Still working on my higher TF system as this intraday lower TF stuff is killing me again already!

I gotta get VZA to work as well on the Daily charts as it does intraday... so close but yet still so very far. I am working on another system as well not related to VZA or VSA which looks very good and may be the ticket long term but I just can't walk away from VZA completely. Too much time invested already.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
{quote} Follow up... Both pending shorts triggered today... 4hr entry (shown) was off the 4hr ND - UT (white line) was at 5230, SL was at 5285 with TP1 set at 5165 for 1.18:1 R:R. I moved my SL on the second half of this trade to BE after 1:1 was hit. That is where it sits currently. Daily entry is shown on the chart from yesterday and was a Daily NBP right into an old daily support zone now turned resistance. Entry was 5160 with SL at the 4hr entry level of 5230 trying to cut down the risk a bit making my first target 5090 which we came to within...
Ok so GU as most pairs was dicey during old Burn-the-cakes speech today, not so much during FOMC which offer little bang. As I noted in an earlier post I decided today to leave my SL's as they were to give some market breathing room and they did stay more than safe so now that I am home from work I am able to tighten my SL's down to secure some pips.

Green Line was my 4 hour entry (called ahead of time) - Entry 5230, SL 5285, TP1 5175, TP2 trailed - TP1 hit yesterday

Blue Line was my daily entry (called ahead of time) - Entry 5160, SL 5230, TP1 5090, TP2 trailed - TP1 hit today

Yellow line is where I decided to move my SL. I decided after some thought that I would leave it above 5100 round number for some room. This locks my 4hr trade in at 2:1 and leaves my daily trade exposed at a little more than half (40 vs 70) of my original risk so it would still be a loss if hit but exposure has beeb reduced and overall these two trades have worked out well and will be profitable. There is some GBP and USD high impact news on the schedule so hopefully we get some more nice movement tommorow. I am not happy with that last 4 hour bar as it formed as a test but did not make a LL so I am letting it ride.

The white fib is the daily zone from March 20, 2013 and we did touch but close above the low of this zone (and that 4hr test is into the zone low) however we closed towards the low of the day and below 50% so we will see. This 50% level was also a factor when choosing my SL.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
{quote} Pending ES short killed and back to waiting for anything higher TF. GU shorts still open and I am leaving SL's until tonight after FOMC if they trades are still alive and kicking I will adjust SL. The one change is that my daily TF entry part 1 has hit it's 1:1 and is closed but I have left part 2 at full risk so worst case scenario is I get SL on both open trades and end up with 2 winners, 1 BE and 1 SL. See where we are at the end of day and I will update with a chart for GU and see if any new daily TF set-ups present. Been busy with some...
Everyone seems to have stopped posting now that you're back again. Odd!

Anywho, in relation to you using VZA on higher time frames, have you looked at using a 4hr zone / 1hr entry combination? Or something to that effect anyway. Instead of going all the way out to a daily chart for example? I'm sure this has crossed your mind but thought i'd ask.
Quoting pres78
{quote} Pending ES short killed and back to waiting for anything higher TF. GU shorts still open and I am leaving SL's until tonight after FOMC if they trades are still alive and kicking I will adjust SL. The one change is that my daily TF entry part 1 has hit it's 1:1 and is closed but I have left part 2 at full risk so worst case scenario is I get SL on both open trades and end up with 2 winners, 1 BE and 1 SL. See where we are at the end of day and I will update with a chart for GU and see if any new daily TF set-ups present. Been busy with some...
Well that was a bad choice... ES short would've been good for 12.5 points at it's low should've left well enough alone. Oh well like any business we must make on the fly decisions and live with the consequences of our choices. Good choices are great, bad choices are learning experiences that help our business grow. Crazy UHV volume zones accross all TF's (Daily volume was huge) so we have some nice VZA zones to play with.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
A GU chart that I find interesting after today's action;

Wide screen again, make sure you zoom in!
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Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} Everyone seems to have stopped posting now that you're back again. Odd! Anywho, in relation to you using VZA on higher time frames, have you looked at using a 4hr zone / 1hr entry combination? Or something to that effect anyway. Instead of going all the way out to a daily chart for example? I'm sure this has crossed your mind but thought i'd ask.
I guess no one likes me, time to move on again perhaps? I know how to clear a room !

Yes I have tried various combinations and continue to tweak my testing.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
I guess no one likes me, time to move on again perhaps? I know how to clear a room !
I enjoy reading your posts anyway. I'm gonna say it's a case of them being comprehensive to the point of not being able to add any more. That GU chart is great. Presume you're still holding those shorts? Moved the stops?
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} I enjoy reading your posts anyway. I'm gonna say it's a case of them being comprehensive to the point of not being able to add any more. That GU chart is great. Presume you're still holding those shorts? Moved the stops?
Yep still open and SL's are moved and locked in until at least LO or if they get hit. I go over the numbers in my post.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yep still open and SL's are moved and locked in until at least LO or if they get hit. I go over the numbers in my post.
Oh I hadn't seen that post, missed it with the last few replies. There's a projected down side of 1.4970 for GU, it'd be great to see that hit over the next few days so I can chalk another successful target up to PnF! Not to mention it'd be nice for your trades too!
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Nice new 1hr zone on EU today for furture trades. What I love is that that old 2877 level from a few of my recent EU posts (high of that 2013 UHV weekly zone) came into play of today's 1hr zone. Look at the low of that blue fib I applied to my highest volume 1hr bar today for use in my intraday trading... almost bang on that weekly level. Lovely and adds some more confluence and strength to this key level.

That volume today on that bar is very high... great zone!
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
So VZA daily does work from a zone perspective now I have to tweak the entries to take what is offered with respect to set-ups and being able to make great R:R on each trade since trades will be few and far between. Take a look at GU daily June 22, 2012 bar is the highest volume daily bar on the chart area that I can see on my screen. Put a fib on it and BAM! Look where the recebt swing high stopped. Bang into that daily zone low. Price rolled over right into this level.

I know I am back to talking to myself but what the hell no better place (for now) to get some thoughts down.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
So VZA daily does work from a zone perspective now I have to tweak the entries to take what is offered with respect to set-ups and being able to make great R:R on each trade since trades will be few and far between. Take a look at GU daily June 22, 2012 bar is the highest volume daily bar on the chart area that I can see on my screen. Put a fib on it and BAM! Look where the recebt swing high stopped. Bang into that daily zone low. Price rolled over right into this level. I know I am back to talking to myself but what the hell no better place (for...
Hi pres, nope not talking to yourself how do decide to take a zone off the chart?


Jamie
Quoting pres78
{quote} My point is that people (not here) but in other forums and in the news keep calling tops but higher TF price action shows that we could still see more topside before anything more than a mere correction...
Well color me an asshat!

We did have a test on daily, but as I saw it seemed that the up side was limited. I understand calling tops is evil, people call a few tops successfully and they become over confident and start trading those tops and get caught with their pants down when the market pushes through the supply.

But however for me at the time I was not prepared for any longs (noting that we pushed up 150-ish pips since then) and shorts were out of the question as well since EJ has been in a strong up trend. For me these consolidation type areas are a bad place to trade and best left to observation.

Here is an 8h, I don't post 8h too often due I don't think many people have access to them.
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Quoting Jasus
Guys how can we identify accumulation and distribution zones that are slow to develop? I'm talking about those zones that go into a trading range with low volume, without very high volume bars that can show what the SM is doing. These zones contrast with fast accumulation and distribution zones, where there is a selling/buying climax and other bars with massive volume. Wyckoff considered these zones, and so does William O'Neil (a very successful american stock trader, that also used bits of VSA to evaluate the stock indices), but Tom Williams doesn't...
Interesting post, lets go at this with a bit of VSA logic.

You are big professional trader, and lets say that you shorted a pair a few weeks ago. By shorting the pair you are essential flooding the pair with supply, once a pair has been flooded with supply it will not take much effort for price to move down. The S&P is a perfect example (see chart) when the S&P starts trending it does so on very very low volume, because of the above reason.

So now that your shorted pair has been flooded with supply, its extremely easy to move down, but its going to be extremely hard to knock it sideways, in order for the pair to be knocked sideways you will have to hit the pair with heavy demand, aka stopping volume. Stopping volume will be high! Sometimes its easier to see the stopping volume on a higher time frame. Stocks are a lot slower moving than forex, they can go into accumulation periods for months on end where as forex its rare to see accumulation period last more than a month. But still stocks you can usually see some sort of stopping volume on weekly/monthly so its important to use all of the time frames available to you.
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