A Rookie Dips His Toes

I need a place to store my own trading notes and thoughts, this seems as good a spot as any.

Please don't think you will find any great wisdom in this journal. I am new to trading and so far unsuccessful. I am only losing fake pips at this time. No real money lost. It might be interesting for other new traders to see what I have gone through. I will not give up. I will learn this and I will make a profit, but it will not be quick.

Who I am?
I am a late 30s father of 3 from the upper Midwest United States. I work a 7am - 6pm job as a mid level manager in an automotive company. I make a good salary. I also have a lot of stress, travel too much, and miss my family. I am burnt out and need a change.

Why Trading?
A few years ago the world economy hand tanked. Automotive was getting torched. My companies stock dropped below $1. I knew my company was doing fine and winning a lot of new business. The stock was down purely on market sentiment not because of company results. I saw a golden opportunity. I put $10k in e-trade and talked to my wife about it before pushing the button. She gave me a seed of doubt and mentioned insider trading. Most of the stuff I knew I am sure was public knowledge, but I didn't follow the market so I didn't know what was public and what wasn't. I hesitated. The next day the stock doubled. I figured I missed out. Within a week it was near $10. 6 months later it hit $50. I missed out on a once a lifetime trade opportunity. My 10k could have been 500k.

A few months ago I attended a chef's class with my wife. We were paired up with another couple. He made his living trading futures. Short hours, tons of money ... I was hooked. My job got worse and I started researching trading at night on the road. I came around to Forex as the best opportunity with my current funds and time.

How to start?
I came across a forex instruction video by Hector Trading on youtube. It seemed simple, but the terms weren't familiar. I found babypips.com and completed their training. I then bought Hector Trading's full training series, and spent many hours listening, charting, etc. etc... I finished full of confidence and ready to retire in 5 years!

First Trades.
I tried quite a few free EAs on demo account. All lost money overall. I purchased an EA believing if they were good the author would charge. It lost as well. I decided I needed to trade on my own with Hector's methods.

I also found bitcoin. I rode a wave and doubled my initial low deposit in 2 days. That money sits in the account awaiting the next wave. I want to double it one or two more times then move it to Forex. I think bitcoin is gambling. When there is a buzz about it, it will make one money. When the buzz is gone it is just 0s and 1s in a computer.

Barriers to Success
I think it is important to understand what may prevent success.
1) Family approval. My wife believes Forex is gambling. She doesn't stand behind me or provide encouragement. She thinks it is just my latest obsession. I can trade my own money, and will, but until I make a significant profit she will feel I am wasting my time.
2) Available time. I work a lot hours. I also have 3 kids playing sports. Time in front of charts is limited. Being on New York time zone with my schedule leads me to only be able to look at charts during Tokyo open and small portion of London mid morning. I am missing most of the best trading times.
3) Knowledge. Trading is completely new to me. I feel like I can place trend lines anywhere on a chart and make a trade I want look good. It will take much practice to place trend lines correctly, and enter with the market.

Current Trading Styles

Trend Trading based Hector Trader's method. A thread utilizing this method is under Interactive Trading, Trend Trading All Pairs. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=208630


30m, 1h, 4h, and 1d setup charts. 1/4 time frame for trigger chart.

First look for 30,50,and100 SMA averages to line up in the same direction indicating a trend.
Price swings harmonically from the region between 30 and 50.
Entry is based on breakout, retrace, and confirmation of an area of consolidation or off a reversal pattern in the 30 to 50 SMA region.

I know the method works, but my success rate has been bad. I have trouble finding the correct entry and setting appropriate SL. I find I get stopped out and then the swing happens.

Single Candlestick reversals at a point of s/r. This is FelixFx's method. His thread is DailySniper under trading Journals. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=424648
1D charts only

Find a Morningstar or hammer crossing an area of s/r.
Enter buy or sell stops 10 pips above or below the star or hammer. SL 10 pips on the other side of candle.
Profit target around next s/r

I only traded this method once so far and hit s/l. Felix also lost on the same trade so I know I used the method right. Just need more trades.

News Breakout. This is Tony112's method in Central Banks and Big Players thread. (Trading Systems). http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=156106


5s to 1m charts

I really don't understand the method right now. It appears we enter a buy and sell stop 10 pips above and below price 30 second before news. Set SL 7 pips from entry.

I am interested in this method because of the potential for very high r:r.

So far I have had small winners with this method.

Scalp. My own method, no thread based on it.

1m charts.

This will be the least used method with very low risk. I don't know if it works, and I am rarely in front of a chart long enough to use it.

What I will do is place SMAs at 5,15,30, and 60. First must have all SMAs in order. Then wait price to close above 5SMA. Enter. Exit when price closes below 5SMA. I have looked at charts with this method and think it will be close to 60- 75% win rate.

I think this gives me a diverse trading tool box. Now the problem is execution.

Good luck with your trading. I suggest you stick with 1 currency pair (2 tops) since you are new at it. USD/JPY and EUR/USD are good places to start. The threads in this forum are probably the best place to learn because you are getting the analyses of hundreds of traders for free.

Thanks Falcon. I am certaintly trying to make use of this forum. It is one of my first and last stops of day.

Open trade on GBDCHF.

Trade Style - Single candlestick reverse
Morning star over s/r on 5/15
Place sell stop at 1.4678. (10 pips below 5/15 low). SL at 1.48297 (10 pips above 5/15 high).
Trade opened on 5/16
First profit zone 1.460
Second profit zone 1.452


12 hours later. -65 pips. Trade is still open. Pa has been up. Maybe profit takers on Friday will push it down.

Price was up today. Now at -77 pips. candlestick today is a spinning top. = indecision. I'll keep the trade open through the weekend. But I'm not feeling good about this trade. Will most likely go to s/l.

So another week done. Another down week. Still on demo for a while until I get this.

Overall (since starting this thread)

Trend
none

Reverse
0-0 - 1 open

News
none

Scalp
0-2, -8.9 pips
EUR-USD -7 pips, trade was during low volume, need better volume to make a good move happen
EUR-USD -1.9 pips, trade was during low volume, need better volume to make a good move happen


Monday
A couple of the JPY crosses look good for a trend entry. I like the JPY not only because it's moving well, but also because I can trade the Tokyo open. Will also be looking at AUDUSD for a trend entry. Looking at GBDCAD for possible reverse entry.

I'm not sure why I can't edit previous posts.

So tonight I am looking at

EURJPY - breakout and retest already happened, enter at 132.579

What I don't like is this pair is making highs not seen since 2008. could be hard to push higher. There is 200 pips b4 2008 high.

GBPJPY - looks just like EURJPY. Will trade the bigger pair

CADJPY - Similar to above too. Go with bigger pair.


AUDUSD - In channel now. Need break and retrace.

Negative. Hitting hard s/r. If it breaks. then : )

For reversal, Felix likes GBDAUD. I see GBDCAD. Our charts don't align. Not sure if there is a time difference in bar start/stops. Anyway AUD is common to break down. Will take GBDAUD.

So
EURJPY - Trend
GBDAUD - Reverse.

i apologize in advance if you do not want others posting in this journal..


a shame to hear about the stock trade you missed.



but you can turn 10k to 500k in a very fast amount of time (similar to the stock gain)

5000% gain might seem like a lot but in reality if you want that gain in say, 3 years, it will require about 12% gain per month (compounded), about 0.6% per day on average.



just trying to help get you motivated (although you seem to have plenty). it always helped me to look at the numbers


and a tip: when you do go live, start with 0.01 lots no matter how much money you deposit in the account. if you can't make a profit with 0.01 lot, then you cant with 0.10 or 1.00 lot... may as well save yourself the money.

once you have profits and playing on market money, and when you feel ready, ramp up the leverage.


good fortune to you in this market, roughly 200 billion in wealth changes hands everyday from a total of 5 trillion USD in orders.. its no wonder so many people can pull out $10,000+ a day from this market... even when trading 100 lots, you wont move the market with your orders. not even in the slightest. if the market did move when you entered, its probably because the market entered 10000+ lots within the same moment as your order

Don't mind at all. I would love to get a" hey, that is good trade" or a "are you nuts". encouragement is great too.


I definitely plan to do this.

Placed sell stop on GBDAUD @ 1.55498. SL at 1.5676. This trade is based on a single candlestick reversal at an area of s/r.

I don't see the candlestick. This is recommended by Felix. I believe our chart times are not aligned. I don't have the Morningstar he has. Hopefully someday I am good enough to make trades on my own without following. but not today ,...


I don't like the way JPY opened today in Sidney. News over the weekend is affecting the charts. For now I will wait to place stop orders.


Update 5/20 - GBDAUD has been flat on the day. Trade idea is nullified it did not reverse today. Moving SL to 10 pips above todays high to limit potential loss. SL now at 1.55791.

GBDCHY was flat on the day. Trade idea is nullified, It has not reversed for 2 trading days. Moving SL to 10 pips above todays high to limit potential loss. SL now at 1.47679.

Despite weak performance of the reversals, I see another one I like. I will post this on Felix's thread, but I am going to open the trade prior to getting it reviewed (it is a demo account).

I think I see some weakening of USD across multiple charts. Particularly EURUSD looks ready to swing up in a sine wave. The AUDUSD is showing a hammer candlestick for today. There is an area of resistance crossing today's PA at 0.980. This was tested in May 2012 and multiple times in 2011.
The next resistance above is at 0.993. I would take profit around this zone but definitely before 1.0.

Setting Buy stop at 0.98385. SL at 0.9741.

Spike on on GBD, EUR, and USD charts at Tokyo open. Went to revised sl quickly. -90 pips. - $55.31


Went to revised sl quickly. - 30 pips, - $20.08

Both of these are still open with Felix. Lets see if he makes money on them in the end. If he does then I was wrong to revise the sl.

Took a buy stop on EURCHF at 1.24853. Sl at 1.24589. This is a triangle breakout into an up trend. Breakout and retest have occurred. If it continues up after retest then I enter. Lot size is much larger than reverse style due to tighter sl.

5-21 Maybe I should write a journal of how to lose money. Price moved just high enough to trigger the buy stop then ran right back into the triangle blowing through my sl. -28 pips -$99.55

If I just switched all stop orders to limit orders most of my trades would be green. Pretty sad when a coin could do better than you.

So after my pity party this morning that every trade I make is bad, I feel a bit better now. No I haven't had a positive trade, but the one's I made were close to profit.

First the GBDAUD trade that I lost 90 pips on. Felix stayed with it 1 more day. He made +100 pips. Right now it is at +111 pips for me. Just a little more patience and it is a 200pip swing!

Second GBDCHF trade. I lost 30 pips. Felix closed at -10 pips. It is currently at -17 pips for me. This one could have been better.

Next my trend trade on EURCHF. I missed the breakout by one swing. I lost -28 pips. The next swing took off for +38 pips today. Need better entry. The entry wasn't clean. But I was asleep and had already place the buy stop. 66 pip swing.


Status of AUDUSD. Started today bad, but improved by the end of the day. Today's candle is also a hammer on the s/r. maybe tomorrow it moves. Patience! Felix did comment that I needed to be aware of area of s/r at 0.9835. Price hit this level twice today, and couldn't breach it. I also saw this level and thought I placed my entry above. Apparently my entry was on it. It triggered my trade and bounced down. Perhaps tomorrow will break it. Here's to patience!

another day, another sl. AUDUSD -97 pips, $-97.90

The EURCHF trade that I missed time the entry then it went to pf1 yesterday. It's now at pf2 (+114 pips)

no trades today.

0 on the day! My best day since starting the Trade Explorer! Of course no trades. There were opportunities today for trend trades but the entries occurred when I wasn't available to see them.

Tonight will be busy. I'm opening two reversal style trades. Both are from Felix. My charts agree with his.

First EURJPY. Sell stop. entry at 131.853. SL at 133.905. Profit zone. 130.5

Second EURGBP. Sell stop. entry at .85086. SL at .86026. Profit zone. .842


And there will be two News trades tonight. These are my first news trades. Idea is to straddle price with buy and sell stops 7 pips from price 30 seconds before news with a 7 pip SL. At news one gets opened. Cancel other. Move SL to BE as soon as possible using tick and 1 minute chart. Exit around 20 pips or when price stalls. I have a news EA. I will try to set it up to do this. The news is in the middle of the night for me. Hard to get up. But tonight I will get up and trade it manual too. I will risk 50% of normal amount. .5% instead of 1%. I do know that demo trades don't have slippage. Real trades will not perform as well.

The news I will trade is French Flash PMI at 2:58am EST. and German Flash PMI at 3:28 am EST.

* I am having problems with MBTrading taking trades right now. It says no connection. Not sure what to do....
I ended up trading the 2 reversals on a different account. They won't show up in the trade explorer.
EURJPY Hit TP. Closed for + 106.7 pips, +$523.
EURGPB cancelled

First news French Flash. Hit SL before I even knew the trade was open. - 8.7 pips, -$174.
Also found out MB trading doesn't allow straddle trading. The EA worked perfect on FX Choice, but of course matched manual and hit sl.

German flash didn't work well either. I did have a chance to move to b/e. but it slipped and gave me - 3 pips, -$15 pips. EA on fx choice didn't get it's sl modified. It lost significantly more.

I'm tired to bed. overall tonight +$364, thanks to nice eurjpy reversal.

Trend trade started on USDJPY based on 4h trend. Entry set at break out from 102.000. Have breakout and retrace. Waiting for confirmation to hit my buy stop. I'm starting to wonder if big traders are doing a fake break out before moving the market. My last trend failed because there was a fake before the real move. Lets see what happens here

Buy stop set at 102.633. sl at 101.964

Trade cancelled. Price fell overnight and never triggered. I am looking for entry within a couple of bars of the initial break out. Not the case here.

I took a news trade last night with the EA. I went long with 7 pip from initial price as entry and 7 pip sl. The news breakout was perfect! But I lost $15. Why. The news was at 4:00am local time. I set the EA at 3:30. AHHHH!

It's only demo.

No trades today, it's golfing day.

So another week done. Another down week. Still on demo for a while until I get this. (is there an echo in the room?)

Overall (since starting this thread)

Trend
Total 0-1, -28pips, -$99.55
Week 0-1, -28pips, -$99.55
EURCHF -28pips, - $99.55 (could have been +114 pips with better entry)

Reverse
Total 1-4 -110.3pips, -$120.99
Week 1-4, -110.3 pips, -$120.99
GBPAUD -90 pips, - $55.31 (could have been +$100 pips with more patience on exit)
GBPCHY - 30 pips - $20.08 (could have been B/E with more patience on exit)
AUDUSD - 97 pips - $97.90 (entry just got hit before reverse, did follow rules, bad luck or bad price reading)
EURJPY +106.7 pips, +$52.30 (not showing up in trade explorer, took with different broker)



News
Total 0-3 -14.7pips, -$204
Week 0-3 -14.7pips, -$204
EURUSD - 8.7pips, -$174 (no price movement on news)
EURUSD - -3 pips, -$15 (no price movement on news)
EURUSD - 3pips, $-15 (traded at wrong time, and didn't get sl right. set at 0.7pips not 7 pips.)

Scalp
Total 0-2, -8.9 pips
Not doing these anymore.


I am going to try to learn Sonic's system this weekend. 1600 pages of posts can't be wrong!

Reading your bio, we have a lot in common. Both in our 30's, doing well, but burnt out and looking for a way "out" of this. Your journal is interesting since it documents (for good and bad) someone starting out in pretty much the same situation as myself. Crossing my fingers you not only succeed, but you continue writing about your progress here.