Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2036 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,701
  • Edited 5:40am May 17, 2013 4:50am | Edited 5:40am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} For 6 hours we have a range of 18 pips If it will go like that all day you will have to sit in front of monitor and i think it can be frustrating. Environment like this may force you to trade just because of that you are in front of the monitor. Be Careful
you not going get an orgasm day every day.
somedays just sit hold hands only, ya.

Trade you must, you trading for a living, but trade with skills for all type terrains.
So stop forcing.

"Japan’s finance minister Aso: Desirable for FX market to be stable."
Which part of the statement you not understand?
remember its friday.

Ai ya where my G7 women?
Oh i forgot, went to Phantom of the Opera theater.

"never take someone for granted. hold special people close to yourheart 'coz u might wake up one day n realise that u've lost a diamond while u were busy collecting stones."

Inserted Video


Is time pray and meditate again.

regards

The fate of the honourable in today's world.

Inserted Video
  • #40,702
  • May 17, 2013 6:57am May 17, 2013 6:57am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} For 6 hours we have a range of 18 pips If it will go like that all day you will have to sit in front of monitor and i think it can be frustrating. Environment like this may force you to trade just because of that you are in front of the monitor. Be Careful
Yes, I have to sit in front of the monitor all day - that's my job now. I left a scout in for those 6 hours and just squared out with a miniscule profit. As fti has said on many occasions, you can only take what the market is willing to give and today it wasn't willing to give much. In the past I might have tried to be silly and open larger initial positions in an effort to make a decent profit out of a small range but if I did that and it decided to take off in one direction or another I could find myself in a death battle that was completely avoidable. Plus, I don't have the luxury of foreign capital at the moment so I'm not taking unnecessary chances.
  • #40,703
  • May 17, 2013 7:13am May 17, 2013 7:13am
Hello Fti and Friends
Thanks for the answer for me your every input is important.
I understand that the market on Fridays more relaxed.
Didnt realy understand this part
"
"Japan’s finance minister Aso: Desirable for FX market to be stable."
"
Yes i agree trade with skills it is of the most importance for us.
When you say never take someone for granted it make me rebember your story
"A Lesson about important things in Life" by Robert Pearson

Thanks Again
And i wish you good health FTI
Good Weekends for everybody
Michael

Quoting fti
{quote} you not going get an orgasm day every day. somedays just sit hold hands only, ya. Trade you must, you trading for a living, but trade with skills for all type terrains. So stop forcing. "Japan’s finance minister Aso: Desirable for FX market to be stable." Which part of the statement you not understand? remember its friday. Ai ya where my G7 women? Oh i forgot, went to Phantom of the Opera theater. "never take someone for granted. hold special people close to yourheart 'coz u might wake up one day n realise that u've lost a diamond...
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,704
  • May 17, 2013 7:14am May 17, 2013 7:14am
I am totaly agree with you UkManThailan



Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote}Yes, I have to sit in front of the monitor all day - that's my job now. I left a scout in for those 6 hours and just squared out with a miniscule profit. As fti has said on many occasions, you can only take what the market is willing to give and today it wasn't willing to give much. In the past I might have tried to be silly and open larger initial positions in an effort to make a decent profit out of a small range but if I did that and it decided to take off in one direction or another I could find myself in a death battle that was completely...
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,705
  • May 17, 2013 7:31am May 17, 2013 7:31am
There you go - I wasn't patient enough!
  • #40,706
  • Edited 11:24pm May 17, 2013 8:48am | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi frz I think your starting to understand more now. this may also help you understand, what I have found is I prefer not hold overnight especially if that includes a weekend, but when I used cut everything at the end of my daylight I was limiting any potential gains or chance to recover potential loss (it was to rigid), when I deploy my troops now I have found an amount that I am comfortable with being in the market at all times, this varies I have my short overnight exposure (week days) and my long overnight (weekends) exposure...
hi Phil.

ahh, i see you have found your niche skew. cool!

now.. i will take rest and finish some books.
(edit: the richest man in babylon and fooled by randomness -- non technical trading books)

have a good weekend, phil and all friends.


Regards

PS: my apologise, i have edited my post.
i fear it would make misunderstanding.
it's my fault. cheers.
steady as she goes
  • #40,707
  • May 17, 2013 3:25pm May 17, 2013 3:25pm
Thoughts on my first week full time:

1. I have a lot to learn.

2. Fti knows more than we can imagine.

3. Currency trading is like any other job, you only get out what you put in. Actually, scrub that, its like running your own business but worse in some ways. You put all the capital in, you take all the risks and you cannot hire somebody to do the menial tasks - because the only person you can trust is yourself. If you don't put the effort in and you're not prepared to make sacrifices then forget it.

4. Increasing your capital and therefore the size of your trades does, as fti said, mean that you have to start a learning process again. You cannot rely on your mind to react in the same way as it did with a smaller account when you were risking less and perhaps could write your losses off as "tuition costs". I thought that it just meant I would have to trade a little more conservatively and not take the kind of stupid risks that would not bother me if I was trading with a £300 account. But, it is much more than that. You need the balls and the stomach to withstand drawdowns that really mean something to you and you need to preserve your capital above all else because without it, the whole business is finished.

5. It is bloody good fun and what I want to do for the rest of my life.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm not sure if my thoughts are of any use or interest to others because, as has been said a thousand times, everything you really need to know is in this thread already. The trouble is, if you are a bit immature like me, you will probably not pay full attention to every bit of advice in this thread until your livelihood depends on it. It is a fault of mine that I need to experience things for myself and I am sometimes unable to take advice until I have experienced what happens when I fail to do so.

Demoing for a few months to see if you can be consistently profitable is a good idea. So is trading a small live account to see if you can do the same with real money. However, neither of those activities will prepare you for trading for a living. If you are truly serious about taking advantage of this precious thread, don't just skip through it as I did on my first few read throughs, looking for those few pearls of wisdom that will allow you to make a pot of money from forex. Read all the reference material that has been provided, refer back to posts whenever you feel the need and try to improve as you gain experience in front of the screen. Any other approach is doing a disservice to a man that has tried to give us everything, in many different ways and for many years.

Sometimes, when fti said things like "pearls before swine" I got a little angry because I found it offensive. But, I believe what he has been trying to do is hit us over the head with a big hammer and make us wake up. Stop looking for that new book, that one catchphrase that will unlock the door to riches. It doesn't exist. There is no holy grail, only an unholy amount of work ahead!

I hope this post doesn't bore you or sound like an ego trip. I have got an awful lot out of this thread over the years and I hope I can one day give something back. At the moment, all I can do is to recount my experiences as I try to go full time. If my thoughts are of no help, just let me know and I will not post any more about my experiences. If you are anything like me, it is the posts from fti that keep you coming back to this thread like a moth to a flame so I will understand completely if what I have to say is of no interest whatsoever.

I hope everybody has a great weekend and that all your dreams can be realised.
  • #40,708
  • May 17, 2013 3:39pm May 17, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thoughts on my first week full time: 1. I have a lot to learn. 2. Fti knows more than we can imagine. 3. Currency trading is like any other job, you only get out what you put in. Actually, scrub that, its like running your own business but worse in some ways. You put all the capital in, you take all the risks and you cannot hire somebody to do the menial tasks - because the only person you can trust is yourself. If you don't put the effort in and you're not prepared to make sacrifices then forget it. 4. Increasing your capital and therefore the...
Good post Ukman...
Agree with all points... except #5, about "fun"
Keep it up... Good rest for the next week!
  • #40,709
  • May 17, 2013 6:49pm May 17, 2013 6:49pm
Fti, this thread is one of the very few good ones out there. It's a very lengthy read, but I agree with everything you've said and think it's well worth it. I'll get through all 2k+ pages by the end of this weekend. Is there a way I can contact you privately? Would love to have a more in-depth, discreet discussion.

What effect do you think the BOJ meeting will have this coming week?

If you look at all the candles of the previous MPM dates on a daily candlestick chart, you'll quickly realize the magnitude of these events. Last meeting on Apr 3 it caused EJ to shoot up over 500 pips in a single day, and 1100+ by the end of the week. The meeting before that on Mar 6 resulted in EJ gaining over 250 pips in one day. Even the previous meeting on Feb 13 caused a 150+ pip drop
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm/

Now it's obvious that the yen will be extremely volatile this week, but how do you determine which way it will go?
?_?
  • #40,710
  • May 17, 2013 6:52pm May 17, 2013 6:52pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thoughts on my first week full time: 1. I have a lot to learn. 2. Fti knows more than we can imagine. 3. Currency trading is like any other job, you only get out what you put in. Actually, scrub that, its like running your own business but worse in some ways. You put all the capital in, you take all the risks and you cannot hire somebody to do the menial tasks - because the only person you can trust is yourself. If you don't put the effort in and you're not prepared to make sacrifices then forget it. 4. Increasing your capital and therefore the...
thanks, Ukman.
your thoughts and experiences are much help,
it's a place to share thoughts, to help each other.
especially, if there's someone that deviate from normal or need some help like me. hehe.

fti's lesson was completely detail, but there are lesson that i need time to digest along with my little experience.
and i won't give up to learn it.
as you told, It is bloody good fun and what I want to do for the rest of my life.

i always remember what fti's said:
"So with life, you MUST stand tall and find your niche. All crazyness means NOTHING."

have a good weekend.
steady as she goes
  • #40,711
  • May 17, 2013 7:30pm May 17, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting Cyal8rloser
Fti, this thread is one of the very few good ones out there. It's a very lengthy read, but I agree with everything you've said and think it's well worth it. I'll get through all 2k+ pages by the end of this weekend. Is there a way I can contact you privately? Would love to have a more in-depth, discreet discussion. What effect do you think the BOJ meeting will have this coming week? If you look at all the candles of the previous MPM dates on a daily candlestick chart, you'll quickly realize the magnitude of these events. Last meeting on Apr 3...

Read first 200 page...its been 4 years on thsi thread for me...and i cant read till 2000 pages in weekend.....if i read i am 100% sure i will miss most of points...

V
  • #40,712
  • May 17, 2013 8:37pm May 17, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote}Yes, I have to sit in front of the monitor all day - that's my job now. I left a scout in for those 6 hours and just squared out with a miniscule profit. As fti has said on many occasions, you can only take what the market is willing to give and today it wasn't willing to give much. In the past I might have tried to be silly and open larger initial positions in an effort to make a decent profit out of a small range but if I did that and it decided to take off in one direction or another I could find myself in a death battle that was completely...

Guys, i caution that Fti has said that things are not as they have been. Maybe it is time to look with a new perspective?

The only thing that stays constant is change.
  • #40,713
  • May 17, 2013 10:51pm May 17, 2013 10:51pm
Hey tub, could u briefly outline what those things are Pls? I must have missed them.. From what I read, it seems the market is more manipulated than ever. But I don't see how out mo or mm changes..thks! Rgds
  • #40,714
  • May 17, 2013 11:55pm May 17, 2013 11:55pm
Hey Friends !!!
How r u today ?
Making weekly notes for you trades and pondering.

I agree with indianguyinny24 in answer to Cyal8rloser

There is no way somebody can read 2000 pages in just a end of week.
Simple math FTI posted more than 10K post
Suppose every post take a minute to read it will take one 10000/60= 166 Hours =>in days count it almost 7 days
And all this if you dont do other things (sleep,eat,rest)
And i just said 1 minute for post , Belive me some post you need to understand and reread few times and after that see how it happens in a market
It is a process.
First 200 pages are to start to get some sort of understanding. There are many pearls all over the thread.
So if you really want to grasp of what FTI presenting you have to be more serious and realistic.
Just my 2 cents
Michael


Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Read first 200 page...its been 4 years on thsi thread for me...and i cant read till 2000 pages in weekend.....if i read i am 100% sure i will miss most of points... V
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,715
  • May 18, 2013 1:35am May 18, 2013 1:35am
Quoting fti
{quote} you not going get an orgasm day every day... "never take someone for granted. hold special people close to yourheart 'coz u might wake up one day n realise that u've lost a diamond while u were busy collecting stones."......
Hi

My first post here. Just pop in and found a golden phrase.

I am exclusively trading EURJPY and making progress. I will start reading this thread.

Thanks.
Weigh well output the loss and gain And proper action ascertain
  • #40,716
  • May 18, 2013 2:41am May 18, 2013 2:41am
Quoting -Michael-
Hey Friends !!! How r u today ? Making weekly notes for you trades and pondering. I agree with indianguyinny24 in answer to Cyal8rloser There is no way somebody can read 2000 pages in just a end of week. Simple math FTI posted more than 10K post Suppose every post take a minute to read it will take one 10000/60= 166 Hours =>in days count it almost 7 days And all this if you dont do other things (sleep,eat,rest) And i just said 1 minute for post , Belive me some post you need to understand and reread few times and after that see how it happens in...
For your reassurance.This thread is only a signpost and discussion.Talk about books, learning resources used to teach
here.10,000 pages + 10,000 hours internalized.But I guarantee you, your life will change
  • #40,717
  • May 18, 2013 3:31am May 18, 2013 3:31am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Guys, i caution that Fti has said that things are not as they have been. Maybe it is time to look with a new perspective? The only thing that stays constant is change.
I agree with you Mike, fti pointed this out a long time ago. This thread isn't about a method that you can learn and apply then forget about progressing, part of the MO is constantly gauging the market feel and adjusting your approach to take account of new developments.

At the start of the thread, when you looked at USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, you could see them moving as you would have expected most of the time. Then, after the credit crunch etcetera, the relationship seemed to change and USD/JPY would often go in the same direction as GBP/USD and EUR/USD. I took this to be down to risk aversion but it's not important what I thought, the relationship had changed. Recently, it seems to have returned to normal - as far as I can see anyway. But, I have found USD/JPY to be less useful than before with regards to confirming the general movement of the dollar, because of central bank intervention. USD/CHF is not a very reliable gauge either, for the same reasons. We need to keep our eye on all the majors and work out for ourselves what is going on.

As far as manipulation goes, I cannot compete with fti on market analysis (and I'm not trying to!). All I can do is follow the behaviour of the majors and the crosses, and draw my own conclusions. I think that is all any of us can do. It's important to try to understand the fundamentals behind the markets too, which is why fti recommended books such as Paper Money. We need to train ourselves to be able to think for ourselves and adapt to survive. The MO in this thread is the very basics that you need in order to trade professionally. What each one of us does with these basic tools is up to us but the one thing we can't do is to rush into the market and start entering multi-level attacks whenever we fancy because we think we have the secret knowledge necessary to survive any battle.

I'm sorry, this post is less clear than I wanted to make it and it basically repeats what fti himself has said countless times already. It's just that I get the impression that some people think if they can master the knowledge in this thread, they will become forex kings, whereas the truth is that it is just a starting point, a minimum requirement before you can even begin to succeed.

The secret, if there is one, is to be proactive when you are studying the thread. You can read it a thousand times but you won't get very much out of it if you don't look at what you have read and then try to apply it to your trading and what the market is doing. Without the hours in front of your monitor, it will be a waste of time reading this thread. Somebody (fti maybe?) said it before I think. It would be like trying to learn how to drive just by reading a book about it.

EDIT: I just re-read Gro's post above and he sums up what I am trying to say in a couple of sentences - he's obviously more succinct than me!
  • #40,718
  • May 18, 2013 3:45am May 18, 2013 3:45am
Hey Guys
Something that i came across about market Manipulation

Inserted Video


Small and interesting video

Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #40,719
  • Edited 2:05pm May 18, 2013 9:02am | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting kinky
Hey tub, could u briefly outline what those things are Pls? I must have missed them.. From what I read, it seems the market is more manipulated than ever. But I don't see how out mo or mm changes..thks! Rgds
Gonna refer you to Ukmanthialan's post above. I couldn't put it any better than that.
  • #40,720
  • May 18, 2013 1:56pm May 18, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote}I agree with you Mike, fti pointed this out a long time ago. This thread isn't about a method that you can learn and apply then forget about progressing, part of the MO is constantly gauging the market feel and adjusting your approach to take account of new developments. At the start of the thread, when you looked at USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, you could see them moving as you would have expected most of the time. Then, after the credit crunch etcetera, the relationship seemed to change and USD/JPY would often go in the same direction as...
well done,its a very good post.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
24 traders viewing now