Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOREX AND STOCKS TRADING IN A NUTSHELL
Set it and forget it!

Last updated: 13th April 2026

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My YouTube channel has been hacked, and YouTube is not reinstating my channel. It's very sad news because hundreds of videos posted over 11 years have definitely been lost. I've decided to start a new YouTube channel. The link is below. This is the reason why most of the videos can no longer be seen.

Follow me on Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, TradingView, and Facebook. You can get started by reading this supply and demand thread and also watching some of the playlists available on my YouTube channel.

Trading the forex markets is not a 100-meter hurdles race with hurdles every 10 meters, but a marathon race with hurdles every 100 meters.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND AMAZON BOOK

Predict market movements with pinpoint accuracy by harnessing the forces that drive all markets. Tired of feeling like everything you’ve been told about Forex and Stock markets is wrong? How much time and money have you wasted chasing the ‘perfect’ strategy, only to face frustration and losses? It’s time to set the record straight and start trading with real, proven insights.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BOOK

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HOMEWORK YOU NEED TO DO:

1. Subscribe to the weekly analysis commentaries (blog). Every week, you will receive in your email a series on potential trade setups based exclusively on supply and demand, Forex, Stocks, Indexes and Commodities.
2. Watch the free basic videos and webinars on supply and demand on my YouTube channel. Subscribe to the channel to be notified of new videos.

A FEW RULES YOU NEED TO FOLLOW IN THIS THREAD

1. This thread deals with basic supply and demand rules. There are more advanced setups, but they won't be posted in this thread since we only deal with basic rules to help you understand supply and demand.
2. No indicators are allowed on the charts, no CCI, no Bollinger Bands or EMA crosses, you name it...none are allowed, only those in the basic template.
3. Timeframes lower than H4 are not allowed. You can't post timeframes like H1, M30 or lower; only H4, D1, weekly, monthly and higher are allowed.
4. No reference to other strategies is allowed. This thread deals with supply and demand imbalances, nothing else.
5. No links to external sites or videos are allowed.
6. No advertisements.
7. No offensive posts dishonouring administrator, its work and those of the subscribers of this thread.

If you break any of these simple rules, your user will be ignored, no questions asked.


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Those who have been following my thread know how hard I've worked to try and help you all. It all started as a simple trade journal, but out of the blue in less than 4 months, it became something very different from what I had initially created it for. The thread had grown to such an extent that I could never have imagined.

This thread is not a trading journal anymore; it’s a meeting point to help traders understand how supply and demand work, helping them understand the forces that govern both the markets and our lives.

I'm really glad that so many of you are interested in understanding how the market works. However, the fact is that the thread had started to absorb my life, my spare time. It took me a lot of time to manage not only the thread but also replying to dozens of daily private emails that hit my inbox. The number of emails I was receiving was increasing, and I couldn't cope with it.

Life is karma. Life is a boomerang. Whatever you do in life, it will be returned to you 10 times bigger. This thread is changing my life in many ways; hopefully, it will change many others as well; the emails I receive every day go in that direction as well.

I am very happy and proud to have received such a huge welcome and all the private messages I get every day to speak for themselves. I will not refer to any of them; those who have written to me will know what I am talking about. I've had to make an important decision if I want to keep on helping you and other traders. I was asked by some members to create a private area. I believed it was the best decision to take, both to help others in a more organized way (FF is great, but it has far too many limitations) as well as allowing me to get my spare time back while keeping intact my passion for helping others.

Other things have happened that have forced me to make this decision. Many won't like this idea. Some will hate me (I don't know why, since I did nothing to them), others will like it. I can't make everybody happy, and I do not lose any sleep over it; this is how life works; I won't try to change such a primitive instinct.

What I am trying to do now is create a community of supply and demand traders that trade by the same set of rules, preventing traders' minds from being clouded with different and/or similar approaches to the markets. The community is a subscription-based forum where any serious trader is welcome if their attitude is humble and open-minded. If you are patient and willing to learn, then you will be welcome. The subscription is a filter. A free community would be just impossible to support.

Trading is all about putting your emotions aside to prevent them from affecting your trading decisions. This is what the private area is about: setting and forgetting.

As many of you know, I'm also a photographer. It's one of my biggest passions. I've created a new Instagram account for those who would like to see what I do. I am mostly shooting time-lapse photography from the places I travel around the world, and now aerial photography. If you would like to know what I do, please follow me at https://www.instagram.com/letstimelapse/

If the idea appeals to you and you are serious enough, you will be welcome at www.set-and-forget.com.
Email is the best way to reach me for a fast reply. Contact me here
I will always do my best to give free support on this thread, but bear with me, put yourself in my shoes.

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FORWARD TESTING THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND RULES IN THIS POST IS KEY
Backtesting on Metatrader 4 or any other software that already shows you the next candles is mostly useless; forward testing is the way to go. You can use Forex Tester 2 software to do it. It's the best testing software out there, in my opinion. Once you have tested these rules or any other rules for MONTHS (not months of data, but months of work on your side), ONLY THEN you will gain confidence trading these rules or any other strategy you decide to trade.

It's just impossible to organize each lesson and topic in a single vertical thread as FF does, just impossible. I can't create a FAQ because there are so so many things to cover that it would be a daunting task, I have no time for. This is why you have to take your time and test these rules or any other strategy's rules you want to trade with, with software like Forex Tester 2 for 3-4 months, a couple of hours a day using Forex Tester 2 will give you all you need to know. Still, most traders don't want to forward test. They consider it a waste of time. They do not realize that it's the most powerful tool they have at hand to feel confident about any trading rules and eventually become full-time profitable traders. Traders feel the urge to trade without the confidence of months of forward testing. What is the result of 99.99% of the time? Blown up accounts!

You have to do your homework; nobody can do it for you except yourself. Take your time and backtest. You will see many things that you can't see now. If you are not willing to spend some months forward testing the ideas on this thread or any other strategy, then you should not be thinking of becoming a trader. You will most likely have the same doubts and gaps always.

What will happen after, let's say, a week of forward testing the rules?
There are only 2 possible outcomes:

1. You maybe find that the rules work pretty well, and you are getting a nice % success ratio, and you will STOP forward testing. MISTAKE. A week of backtesting is NOTHING; if you stop so soon, you are not getting the point. If you ever started to study a career at the University, did you stop studying and doing exercises after you read the first book? You didn't spend a minimum of 5 years studying, and even after 5 years of university, you finished the career, and you know NOTHING because you have no practical experience. Life is like that.
2. You will see no progress and believe that the rules do not work and will skip this thread and go to another. This could probably happen, but it will happen to you on any strategy. You have to believe in the logic of the rules and the nature of the markets and supply because supply and demand govern the markets and our world. Take your time, spend some months forward testing, ask your doubts, don't despair!

I am always encouraging you to forward test any Forex trading rules because, in my humble opinion, it's the only way to gain confidence and become consistent trading any rules set, be it supply and demand; EMA crosses, Fibonacci, you name it. It's just the way it's, do not believe what I say or do or what anybody else says or do, do it yourself. Step into the "believe stage" of your trading and get the most out of your marriage with the rules you will be embracing; it's the only way. Your thoughts are physical, but you need to work very, very hard to make them real.

The following video shows you how I look at supply and demand in a more detailed way; candle by candle, you'll hear me describing price action in detail.

The only thing we have to prevent us from blowing up our accounts is:

1. Our rules and trading plan
2. Our Stop Loss Remember, these rules can be extrapolated to other timeframe combinations.

I am personally focused on swing and position trading for my entries for one single reason; it's not just trading but a way of life. Most of us want to have a life other than being in front of a computer screen all day long; H4 and D1 levels help you achieve that purpose as well as helping you to become patient. It will be worth 1 million times.

YOUTUBE VIDEOS ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND

1. You can view the videos on my YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/SetandForgetTradingCommunity
2. Subscribe to my YouTube channel if you want to be automatically notified of new videos being posted

I've created my own templates and a very important and useful Metatrader indicator to draw my rectangles and extend them to the current price, as well as calculating the number of pips in the rectangle; it will also draw trendlines automatically on the higher timeframes' D1 and WK supply and demand areas so that you can see where you are in the curve when you are on the lower timeframes.

You will be able to download all Metatrader indicators and the template that I use. I will be using the same template for all my posts here, which is the way I trade. I'd like it if you post any charts based on this template and the indicators I've attached, using the simple methodology explained below. Why the same template? If we all do it the same way, we can all help each other because we'll be basing our decisions on the same methodology. Having different charts with different colours and indicators, dozens of lines painted all over the charts making it crowded, will not allow us to see price action as explained in the thread.

I will be posting some of my trades, both successful and unsuccessful, on this thread. I will describe my rationale for my entries and my exits. Hopefully, others will be helped with my thread, one of the 2 only reasons I'm writing it. The 1st one is to help others; the 2nd one is to help me become more consistent by thinking aloud in the form of a thread; this will help me become even more consistent following my own set of rules.

Remember this VERY important thing: the more indicators you use on your charts, the more rules you will have to add to your trading plan. Adding an indicator means you will have to add rules on when to use it and when not to use it, how it will help you make a decision when it filters out a bad or a good trade, etc. If you add too many indicators, you will be flooded with variables and decisions in your trading plan. You will be paralysed, and you won't be able to pull the trigger.

IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL I WIN
This is what I believe, and I am willing to die for it.

No matter how bad it is or how bad it gets, I am going to make it! We should be saying to ourselves day after day when we are sitting in from of our trading stations.

Some of you right now want to go to the next level... in our case, becoming a successful trader... You can't get to that level economically where you want to be until you start investing in your mind, invest in yourself.

Watch this 6-minute motivational video by Eric Thomas and Will Smith. Watch them every day if you will. This is what we need to think about ourselves to become successful at any task.






Any Advice or information on this thread posted by the administrator and the subscribers is general advice only - It does not consider your personal circumstances; please do not trade or invest based solely on this information. By viewing any material or using the information within this thread, you agree that this is general education material. You will not hold any person or entity responsible for loss or damages resulting from the content or general advice provided here by the administrator and its fellow members. Futures, options, and spot currency and stocks trading have large potential rewards but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them to invest in the Forex and futures markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This thread is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell spot Forex, CFDs, stocks, options or other financial products. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in any material on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

I've created an indicator which will help all those supply and demand trader out there trading with the Metatrader 4 platform.
Metatrader 4 has many known limitations, the rectangle tool is one of them. It was not thought for supply and demand traders, so I came up with an idea and created and indicator that will modify the painted rectangles automatically the way I wanted, to suit the way supply and demand type of trading requires.

I will create a video where I will show in full detail how this indicator can help you on this trading, once you see how this works, you won't be able to trade without it, hopefully

This indicator will help you to have cleaner charts as well as to being aware of where the D1 and WK supply and demand zones in control are when zooming in lower timeframes, you don't want to buy into a D1/WK supply zone, or buy into a D1 demand zone. That's very very dangerous and lower odds. With this indicator you will always know about it, if your zones are correctly drawn. It will all depend on how good you are locating the supply and demand imbalances.

WHAT CAN THIS INDICATOR DO TO IMPROVE YOUR SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRADING?

1. Rectangles will only be visible on the timeframe where it's been painted. The indicator will automatically tick the timeframe checkbox under the rectangle's visualization tab
2. The rectangles will be automatically expanded to current candle + 5 candles to the right on every tick
3. It will calculate the distance in pips between the distal line (highest price) and the proximal line (lowest price) of the rectangle
4. It will display price labels automatically on both the highest and lowest price, so that you know where to set your entries and your stop loss
5. It will allow you to automatically draw trendlines from left to right of the rectangle on H4, D1 and WK timeframes. What's the point of doing this? To assess how close or far you are from the higher timeframes (D1 and WK), how low or high you are in the supply and demand curve. Trendlines will be visible on all timeframes, so if you are on the H1 chart you will know how close to D1 and WK supply and demand you are by paying attention to the trendlines colors.
6. It will not interfere with the automatic zones drawn by the Insanity Industries SD indicator, it will not expand the rectangles created by it, so both your manual rectangles and the automatic ones can coexist. This is accomplished with the ExcluseName1 variable
7. You will be able to choose how many zones above and below current price will have trendlines painted, you do want to have your charts as clean as possible and not crowded with lines all over the place preventing you from seeing the price action
8. It will allow you to change the color and style of each trendline for each of the timeframes, so you'll know how close you are to D1 and WK by the trendline's color.

INPUTS YOU CAN CHANGE ON THE RECTANGLE INDICATOR

You can change all these variables on each of your symbols. Let me explain what each variable does.

Active = true;
It will turn on/off the indicator, if false it will not expand rectangle or execute any of its features
ExtendSize = 5;
This will expand the rectangle to current candle + 5 candles to the right. If you change it to 10 it will be 10 candles to the right
ExcludeName1 = "aII_SupDem";
This setting is to filter out the rectangles names created by the automatic SD zones from Insanity Industries indicator. It will not interfere with the automatic zones by not expand the rectangles created by it, so both your manual rectangles and the automatic ones can coexist.
ExcludeName2 = "no";
If you don't want a rectangle to be automatically expanded, edit its properties and change its name to no, it will no longer be affected by the indicator
Labels.Active = true;
If true, it will show price levels at high and low price of the rectangle
Color.High = White;
Color.Low = White;
These 2 settings is the color of the labels, high and low
High.Price = true;
If false, it will not show the label for the high price
Low.Price = true;
If false, it will not show the label for the low price
Label.Size = 1;
This is the font size for the price labels, change it in increments of 1
Range.Active = true;
If true, it will show the rectangle's width in pips
Range.Inside = true;
If false, it will draw the rectangle's pips width outside of the rectangle, on the far right side
Range.Color = White;
This is the color of the width in pips
Range.Size =9;
This is the font size of the width in pips label

H4_trendlines = true;
It will allow the indicator to draw trendlines both at the upper and lower price of the rectangles painted on H4
H4_lines_number = 1;
This is the number of rectangles above and below current price that the indicator will use to draw the trendlines, if you change it to 2 it will draw trendlines 2 rectangles above and 2 rectangles below current price
H4_upper_color = Yellow;
This is the color of the upper trendline for H4
H4_lower_color = Lime;
This is the color of the lower trendline for H4
H4_style = 2;
This is the style for those trendlines, from 0 to 4. It's the order you see in the line style window in Metatrader 4

The settings below are like the H4 explained above, but duplicated for both D1 and WK charts. Very important to know how close to the D1 and WK supply and demand curve you are.

D1_trendlines = true;
D1_lines_number = 2;
D1_upper_color = Yellow;
D1_lower_color = Lime;
D1_style = 0;

WK_trendlines = true;
WK_lines_number = 1;
WK_upper_color = Yellow;
WK_lower_color = Lime;
WK_style = 1;

How to make the rectangle reader work if markets are closed?
If markets are close the rectangle indicator will not work properly, it needs price ticks to update them. A trick is to open the indicators windows and close it, then it will update all indicators as well as the rectangle reader. Try it. Draw a rectangle, then CONTROL+I for indicators and close it.

The default settings for automatic trendlines is set to H4=1, D1=2 and WK=2. We want clean charts, so the more automatic trendlines we use the more crowed and unreadable charts will be. Decide what timeframe is your curve and then change the settings accordingly. I use D1 for my intraday and WK for my swing, but I always want to know how close or far I'm from the WK curve, so I have the trendlines painted on the WK zones as well.

NOTE: I will not be adding M30, H1 or M15 trendline zones, because I am not doing that kind of trading, sorry

How will your charts look like when you add this indicator? Take a look at the first post in this thread and you will see it.

Watch a 1 hour video I created explaining how to use the indicator and how to make a topdown analysis with supply and demand methodology using it and no indicators.

wish you all the best with your thread .

This will be the basic template I will be using for my posts here. I'd like that if you post any charts, which I hope you will be doing, you post them based on this template and indicators I've attached, by using the simple methodology I've started to explain on my thread.

Why the same template? If we all do it the same way, then we all can help each other, because we'll be basing our decisions on the same methodology and supply and demand price action areas. Having different charts with different colors and indicators, dozens of lines painted all over the charts making it crowded will not allow all of us to see price action as explained in the thread.

The indicators that I use have been added to the initial post, they are these:
1. ATM Pure Market Price. It will show a big price level at the bottom right of your chart. Metatrader does not show big price labels, it's quite useful
2. Fractals (Bill Williams). This indicator will draw a small dot on the swing highs and lows by taking into account 2 lower highs and 2 higher lows for a swing high and the opposite for the swing longs. Very useful to visually see where the swing highs/lows are. Also, when you have a group of several candles and you want to draw a SD level, you will know quite fast which is the highest/lowest price in the area, which will always be the one with the dot
3. Rectangle reader. This is explained in another thread, it will expand the rectangles that you draw as well as calculating pips width, a a long etcetera. More information in this same thread, 2 post above.
4. MA_CCI. This indicator will show the 100 WMA and CCI on all timeframes. A quick snapshot of what all timeframes are doing. I will explain how I use it. I don't use it for taking decisions, but as a secondary tool to assess the trend. I don't use CCI, but I had it build like that some months ago
5. ADR_V2. This is the Average Daily Range. It will show you how many pips the currency pair has moved today, in the last day, 5, 10 and 20 days in average. If above a certain % if will be displayed in red, which will tell you that the currency has gone beyond its daily average range
6. SupportAndResistance. This is a very useful indicator, it will draw red and blue beads on the charts to display last week/month lows and highs. Very important for confluences with SD levels you have drawn on your charts. It's good to be aware of historic weekly/monthly highs. If you are on H4 and lower timeframes, you will see the last week's high/low. On D1 and above charts, you will see the last month's historical high/low.
7. 20 and 50 EMAs. I use these EMAs on H4, D1, WK, and MN charts only. They are widely use by traders and institutions and they are good to be used when it confluences with a nice SD level, I don't use it for entries, only to support a good level
8. Pip Value and Pip Spread. You will see that information by default on the template always

That's all that I use. Feel free to download the indicators and basic template that I'm using.
Remember, if you do post your charts and analysis, do it with this template so that we're all in the same page.

Hi Panoramia,
Thank you for this thread.
I opened a pepperstone Demo account.
I applied your default indicators and template to it but i can't see the chart as yours.
How i can upload a chart?

Hello there Mosah,
Markets are closed, the rectangle indicator needs price ticks to update the rectangles. A trick is to open the indicators windows and close it, then it will update all indicators as well as the rectangle reader. Try it. Draw a rectangle, then CONTROL+I for indicators and close it.

I've just created a video that I will be uploading soon so that you all know how to use it and how to trade the SD curve on the higher timeframes.
The template is already attached in the first post at the top. The indicators will work with any broker.

Try it like that for now, it should work.
Alfonso

Thank you again

Thanks for sharing panoramia! My english skills are limited but I will try to be one of your disciples

and am here.....lol..............

I've created a 1 hour video that explains in more detail quite a few things. I have improvised a bit, nothing was planned. I hope that you like the way I've done the topdown analysis.

The video can be seen here:

This is the topdown analysis for the EURUSD as of 18th May 2013:
1. I start from the Monthly chart down to the 4H and H1 chart
2. I draw all major supply and demand levels on all those timeframes
3. I explain how to use the WK and D1 supply and demand curve
4. I explain in detail how to use the Rectangle Reader Extender indicator, necessary to work the way I do.

I am sure you will like the way this indicator I created will help you improve on your supply and demand trading.

Watch it and give me your feedback.

I will be posting other videos, one on a GBPUSD short trade I am still holding which I posted on Kenneth Lee thread. I will do it soon

Subscribed

Well done Alfonso

TSD

Not posting too much but TraderinSD gave me a link to your thread and there's so detailed description in the cap of it...It will make sense even for those, who're also familiar with SD trading strategy. Keep going, man!
There's also one little discrepancy:

Quote

Disliked

ON TO THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CONTROL

and


Cheers!

Yes, there was a discrepancy with the sell low in the curve and all that sorry thanks, I fixed it! It was so much text that it's easy to make silly mistakes! But now it should be fixed!

Sometimes that happens. Due to the size of the first topic it's just a small thing, don't mind.

I've already just watched your video. Liked your style of definition the direction to trade. But on 55:15 of your video you mentioned a supply that would be considered as tradeable (as I understood according to your words you trade only fresh levels). But I'd like to post a chart with a little bit differently drawn level. What do you think?

http://gyazo.com/529b997a0134790db1b253b84d1b0da4.png

Yes, I remember having mentioned that level vaguely when zooming in the M15 timeframe while explaining my short entry on the EURUSD.
It's a reaction to a previous area, where price spent too much time at the level (unfilled green). That level was also created at slow asian market, I don't lean on levels created during slow market hours and the asian market, it's another of my rules. I will trust those areas if the pairs involved are heavily traded during the asian market, like AUDJPY, the NZD, or others, but not on EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc.



So now by paying closer attention at that area you drew on your chart, I wouldn't set an order there for those 2 reasons:

1. It's not a fresh level
2. Supply level was created during slow market hours on a pair which is not heavily traded in those hours

I describe the other 3 levels that I see. The best one for me would be lowst one, the one at 1.2871, which is also the one that absorbed the demand marked with the red rectangle on my chart. Then second best would be one at the very top where I had taken my short. Best departure is the lowest level however. I don't trade the M15 levels though, I will use it sometimes to drill my areas down.

But yes, you are right with that level!
Thanks for you comments, I really appreciate it!
Alfonso

Hi Alfonso,
Thanks for taking the time and putting in the effort to show how you trade. Great job on the video, it was very helpful and informative. I’m working on setting up the indicators ... been in study mode for quite awhile but I’m close to being done so hoping to contribute soon.

Thanks again,
Joe

panoramia
Thank you too for conversation! Keep posting your charts! I also like to look for 30M1H zones.
Agree about the two upper one lvls. But I am not so confident about the 2871. On the departure it was spiked three times...Do you estimate such kind of PA?

Thanks for your warming reply Joe, I really appreciate it. I beleived that showing the way I trade in a video was way better than in screenshots. On a video it's more difficult to misundertand concepts, price action and many other things. On screenshot it's easy to be misled by what your mind may want to interpret.

That's the way I trade supply and demand. It's neither the only way, nor the best way, but it's my way and most imporant, it's a "logical" way to look at things. I always that if I have logical rules that I follow consistently, they will become a habit, second nature to me, and eventually trading will become boring, because I will be doing the same thing over and over, the same thing again and again. In order to be consistent you need to be consistent on what you're doing, it's a loop.

Thanks again for your message! Looking forward to your contributions!
Alfonso

The thing about that level, the lower one, is that it can be considered as a retracement to the previous non-fresh level at 1.2880. I will not trade that level because I do have a doubt, so when I have a doubt about a level, if the level is not ultra super clear to me, I won't take the risk! If I wanted to take the risk, I would try to cover both levels as much as possible with my SL a few pips above 1.2890, and my entry maybe at the low of those wicks at 1.2874.

But I prefer to wait for other levels to lean on. It does not mean that some of those levels could not work, any of them could work, but I'm just trying to behave like a "robot". If there is just one variable in my trading plan's rules which is not met, or there is a doubt, then I will not trade it. There are 20+ currency pairs where I can find clean and fresh levels with strong departure and a nice profit margin with no opposing supply and demand levels to reduce my odds.

Trying to be as rule-based and robot-like as possible to prevent my emotions from sneaking in my rational decisions. Not easy though

I've created another video which you can see in this post. This time it's a shorter one
A live GBPUSD short trade I took last thursday which I am still holding.

On this video you will see:
- How I use the rectangle reader indicator to draw my SD zones on higher timeframes, and how easy it's to know how high or low you are in the D1 and WK supply curve by having the automatic trendlines painted on the distal and proximal lines of those rectangles
- The exact reasons why I took the short trade and why I want to hold it
- How to use the higher timeframe supply and demand levels to assess the trend in a logical way
- I show how to use Metatrader's Scale Fix functionality, I learnt about it by mistake 2 weeks ago. I thought it was not possible under MT4, but you can drag your chart around and candles will not scale or adjust, it's just like moving an image in Photoshop, I love this feature

I hope that the concepts here and my supply and demand methodology are clear, I just try to be as logical and consistent as possible.