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  • #81
  • May 16, 2013 8:09pm May 16, 2013 8:09pm
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/...SH20_OU01_.jpg

CG, did you read this book by Jeff Augen? How did you get turned on to trading options near expiry?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #82
  • May 16, 2013 8:11pm May 16, 2013 8:11pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} when you SELL calls you leave yourself open for unlimited upside risk,
right. will be experimenting.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #83
  • May 16, 2013 8:16pm May 16, 2013 8:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I might sell the calls - they're $0.04. It will be very small or on paper. Need to spend some time on those to get a clue.
reason I personally would not bother with EWJ is because its range is very narrow on a daily basis, now your 12$ put you were considering is just in the money with EWJ closing at 11.92 so you have 8c in the money and 3c time value left. EWJ moves around 10-15c average daily so the best it may go down to is around 11.75 or so.
If it does then you will be 25c IN THE MONEY, now factor in your commission costs for open and close. Only then you'll know if its worth the risk. Hope this helps
  • #84
  • May 16, 2013 8:17pm May 16, 2013 8:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{image} CG, did you read this book by Jeff Augen? How did you get turned on to trading options near expiry?
by accident
  • #85
  • May 17, 2013 6:10am May 17, 2013 6:10am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F... I probably buy the EWZ $54 put tomorrow just for the days expiration if the pre-market doesn't fall. the $54 put option closed today at 13c, hoping i can get it for 7c or under, EWZ May 2013 54.000 put (EWZ130518P00054000) -OPR 0.13 {image} 0.10(43.48%) 3:52PM EDT
2.5 hours to go before the market opens and the futures are all trading higher so If EWZ opens higher above 55.75 then I WILL NOT take the above trade however if it opens slightly above or at or even below yesterdays close of 55.42 then I'll take the risk and trade the above quote. The risk will be small only risking the premium I pay + commission costs

GOLD is trading lower this morning so I 'll be looking for a possible call for a quick gamma scalp on gld or the miners gdx just for today, again all depends on where the market opens and momentum
  • #86
  • May 17, 2013 8:58am May 17, 2013 8:58am
I won't be able to do much today. But looking to short Oil next week if it continues to rise. Long gold miner calls will pay well, watching as they continue to fall. Been a $40 swing in DUST in the last month, but the options are too expensive.

GL, CG, with gamma trades today if you do any.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #87
  • May 17, 2013 1:44pm May 17, 2013 1:44pm
I am concerned about these markets and I think they may be malfunctioning. We have stocks continuously up, long bond yields up, oil up, USD up. Shouldn't Gold be up, too? Shouldn't everything be up at the same time? It's confusing when some things are up and other things are down. I need a market that is all up, all the time, so I can just reliably make sick amounts of money. I bet it's the Fed's fault.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #88
  • May 17, 2013 2:08pm May 17, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting The Fool
I am concerned about these markets and I think they may be malfunctioning. We have stocks continuously up, long bond yields up, oil up, USD up. Shouldn't Gold be up, too? Shouldn't everything be up at the same time? It's confusing when some things are up and other things are down. I need a market that is all up, all the time, so I can just reliably make sick amounts of money. I bet it's the Fed's fault.
Nothing makes sense to me either at the moment.
US macro keeps coming in poor, even the jobless figures, and the $ keeps going up, gold keeps going down, stocks keep going up, oil keeps going up, bonds keep falling.
What on earth is going on? I can't understand any of it.
Added to which, here in the UK the fundamental outlook is improving, and the GBP did reflect that, but for all of about 5 mins before it was sold down hard to where it is now. US data keeps coming in shite, apart from a poncey consumer confidence figure that correlates with nothing, and bam, $ is bought heavy yet again.

Everyone keeps talking about tapering of QE, but from where I'm standing the data is coming out far too weak to be thinking in those terms.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #89
  • May 17, 2013 2:36pm May 17, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Everyone keeps talking about tapering of QE, but from where I'm standing the data is coming out far too weak to be thinking in those terms.
Fed minions jawboning on QE pullback not scaring anybody anymore.

Only thing seems clear to me is I can short some Oil if the USD strength persists.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #90
  • May 17, 2013 2:37pm May 17, 2013 2:37pm
Perhaps it's just a reminder that there's always a deviation from the norm.

US economy sucks but is beginning to suck less than other 'major' economies.

US oil production may rival that of the Saudi's (deviation from norm) ?

Fed's may be forced to raise interest rates (someday).

OR, it's an implication of an impending crash... take your pick and watch carefully.

Anyway, I don't even like options so pay no attention.

All the best.

(what's your opinion)
?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #91
  • May 17, 2013 3:15pm May 17, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} 2.5 hours to go before the market opens and the futures are all trading higher so If EWZ opens higher above 55.75 then I WILL NOT take the above trade however if it opens slightly above or at or even below yesterdays close of 55.42 then I'll take the risk and trade the above quote. The risk will be small only risking the premium I pay + commission costs GOLD is trading lower this morning so I 'll be looking for a possible call for a quick gamma scalp on gld or the miners gdx just for today, again all depends on where the market opens and...
ok, markets closed . i did EWZ $54 put and I PAID 5C for it, well it expired worthless on me meaning I took a loss

all the other trades I was looking at i left alone as market clearly was moving higher. This is what I love about options when I lose its controlled small risk but the winners always out do the losses, I think EWZ looksd to me it will go down but I'LL WAIT FOR NEXT WEEK.

EWZ opened at 54.45 went down to 54.23 high as 54.83 closed at 54.49
  • #92
  • May 17, 2013 3:34pm May 17, 2013 3:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Fed minions jawboning on QE pullback not scaring anybody anymore. Only thing seems clear to me is I can short some Oil if the USD strength persists.
T.F. this is for you. Haliburton had some good gamma into it today, its on my watch list normally

5c went to 65c today $44.50 call

many examples around but no good if your not in it, i'm a idiot when i miss these by not looking at my list

HAL May 2013 44.500 call (HAL130518C00044500)

-OPR

0.65 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.60(1,200.00%) 3:45PM EDT





Prev Close:0.05Open:0.33
  • #93
  • May 17, 2013 3:51pm May 17, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Fed minions jawboning on QE pullback not scaring anybody anymore. Only thing seems clear to me is I can short some Oil if the USD strength persists.
T.F. just took a look a USO oil fund ETF and looks like it has room to go higher which take oil higher too so be careful
  • #94
  • May 17, 2013 3:52pm May 17, 2013 3:52pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. this is for you. Haliburton had some good gamma into it today, its on my watch list normally 5c went to 65c today $44.50 call many examples around but no good if your not in it, i'm a idiot when i miss these by not looking at my list HAL May 2013 44.500 call (HAL130518C00044500) -OPR 0.65 {image} 0.60(1,200.00%) 3:45PM EDT Prev Close:0.05Open:0.33
Thanks, CG. You can't catch 'em all. I'll prolly get addicted to these, have to start taking Fridays off.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #95
  • May 17, 2013 3:54pm May 17, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. just took a look a USO oil fund ETF and looks like it has room to go higher which take oil higher too so be careful
Yep, USO what I like, watching for $35+, be on it like stink on a monkey if it do.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #96
  • May 17, 2013 4:01pm May 17, 2013 4:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Thanks, CG. You can't catch 'em all. I'll prolly get addicted to these, have to start taking Fridays off.
these trades can happen on any day, at the moment you will notice there is high expectation from investors for a monsterous move probably to the downside so impled volitility is high which makes option price more expensive.

That haliburton trade would have increased 20x and more in normal times
  • #97
  • May 17, 2013 4:07pm May 17, 2013 4:07pm
man USO looks like its just chopping about to me....
IV indicating its best to do some type of vertical debit spread... maybe just a sept 33/36 bull call spread from around 34.00 with like a .40 SL

net u about 27 deltas and is a pretty realistic target

hmm... not in love with it but it works
  • #98
  • May 17, 2013 4:14pm May 17, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting Wulfgar
man USO looks like its just chopping about to me.... IV indicating its best to do some type of vertical debit spread... maybe just a sept 33/36 bull call spread from around 34.00 with like a .40 SL net u about 27 deltas and is a pretty realistic target hmm... not in love with it but it works
Wulfgar you may be right but to me the weekly candles are showing its being bought every time it goes down,
  • #99
  • May 17, 2013 4:17pm May 17, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Wulfgar you may be right but to me the weekly candles are showing its being bought every time it goes down,
def a push and pull between oil and the $dxy... typically this type of $dxy strength would be killing oil.... getting ready for some sort of massive breakout?
  • #100
  • May 17, 2013 4:18pm May 17, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting Wulfgar
man USO looks like its just chopping about to me.... ... not in love with it but it works
I like that chop from last May - >$40 to <$30 in 6 weeks or so.

My problem is I need to throw out all my macro biases (like hey you can't jack up the USD and Oil at the same time yo!) cuz in a hyperliquified marketplace anything can happen...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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