Hello again!
One of the members reading Ken's thread sent me a private message asking me what I used in order to decide if a trend has changed or not. I replied to him but I thought that it might help others to see what I take into account to assess if a trend is up, down, or it's been broken.
Saying when the trend has change is one of the trickiest things, because every timeframe has its own trend. You may be trading in an uptrend on H1 but it's a down trend on the D1 and up trend on the weekely. So you first have to decide which is the timeframe that timeframes your trend, and follow it 101%. Then choose the entry timeframe to draw your levels, and then your Curve timeframe which will tell you if you are too high or too low in the curve, so you are more or less aggressive in picking up levels or TP. You can use the spreadsheet I used for Open Office calc to draw your D1 and WK levels, by doing so you will always know if you are too high or too low. If you are too high then you should be thinking of exiting your longs and looking for supply zones to lean on your shorts; opposite for low in the curve. You can see that spreadsheet in the following link, levels are not updated (i do it every day), but it's better because you will see all the color changes to denote if a level has been hit, if its been penetrated 50% of it's been broken. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=424894
SWING: I use this as timeframes when trading on H4 levels (for swing trading)
- WK is my supply/demand curve (extremes controlling price)
- H1 is my trend direction
- H4 is the chart where I draw the levels, where I will set my orders. I will use the H1 timeframe to drill H4 level it it's too big, else I won't take it. But I won't look for levels on lower timeframes, if the level itself is on H4 then I have to base my decisions on the timeframe where I found the level, I will only use lower timeframes to drill it down, that's all. Otherwise we'll be chasing the trade and finding what we want to see on the charts, not what the market has to offer us
INTRADAY: if I concentrate on H1 levels (for intraday) then it will change:
- D1 is my supply/demand curve (extremes controlling price)
- H4 is my trend direction
- H1 is my chart where I draw the levels, where I will set my orders. I will use the M30/M15 timeframes sometimes to drill H1 level it it's too big, else I won't take it. But I won't look for levels on M15 or M30, if the level itself is on H1 then I have to base my decisions on the timeframe where I found the level.
You have to have very strict rules or you will be lost.
When do I consider the trend has changed on any given timeframe. I do it very simple, I do like Jose Blasco from Online Trading Academy does, which in fact I love, he's the best instructor together with Sam Evans and Justin Krebs.
* I will consider an downtrend changed IF the timeframe I use as direction has broken at least 2 supply or demand zones, that simple. If 2 zones on my direction have been violated, then the market has probably changed direction. That's the very simple rule I am following.
** If only 1 supply zone is broken I will not consider the trend as changed, but I will look further up to lean on the previous unbroken supply on my direction timeframe. If my trade fails at that level again, then I will not trade again in that direction (down), and will considered the trend changed and now it's up.
These are the rules I follow, very simple, but I just want to follow a KISS method (Keep It Super Simple), or I will unfocus and lose my equity rapidly
Hope that helps to understand my charts and the way I trade. I just concentrate on H1 and H4 levels, going lower is just too much since I track about 20 pairs and I want to do swing trading and walk away to see the trades work or fail, that's all.
Alfonso
One of the members reading Ken's thread sent me a private message asking me what I used in order to decide if a trend has changed or not. I replied to him but I thought that it might help others to see what I take into account to assess if a trend is up, down, or it's been broken.
Saying when the trend has change is one of the trickiest things, because every timeframe has its own trend. You may be trading in an uptrend on H1 but it's a down trend on the D1 and up trend on the weekely. So you first have to decide which is the timeframe that timeframes your trend, and follow it 101%. Then choose the entry timeframe to draw your levels, and then your Curve timeframe which will tell you if you are too high or too low in the curve, so you are more or less aggressive in picking up levels or TP. You can use the spreadsheet I used for Open Office calc to draw your D1 and WK levels, by doing so you will always know if you are too high or too low. If you are too high then you should be thinking of exiting your longs and looking for supply zones to lean on your shorts; opposite for low in the curve. You can see that spreadsheet in the following link, levels are not updated (i do it every day), but it's better because you will see all the color changes to denote if a level has been hit, if its been penetrated 50% of it's been broken. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=424894
SWING: I use this as timeframes when trading on H4 levels (for swing trading)
- WK is my supply/demand curve (extremes controlling price)
- H1 is my trend direction
- H4 is the chart where I draw the levels, where I will set my orders. I will use the H1 timeframe to drill H4 level it it's too big, else I won't take it. But I won't look for levels on lower timeframes, if the level itself is on H4 then I have to base my decisions on the timeframe where I found the level, I will only use lower timeframes to drill it down, that's all. Otherwise we'll be chasing the trade and finding what we want to see on the charts, not what the market has to offer us
INTRADAY: if I concentrate on H1 levels (for intraday) then it will change:
- D1 is my supply/demand curve (extremes controlling price)
- H4 is my trend direction
- H1 is my chart where I draw the levels, where I will set my orders. I will use the M30/M15 timeframes sometimes to drill H1 level it it's too big, else I won't take it. But I won't look for levels on M15 or M30, if the level itself is on H1 then I have to base my decisions on the timeframe where I found the level.
You have to have very strict rules or you will be lost.
When do I consider the trend has changed on any given timeframe. I do it very simple, I do like Jose Blasco from Online Trading Academy does, which in fact I love, he's the best instructor together with Sam Evans and Justin Krebs.
* I will consider an downtrend changed IF the timeframe I use as direction has broken at least 2 supply or demand zones, that simple. If 2 zones on my direction have been violated, then the market has probably changed direction. That's the very simple rule I am following.
** If only 1 supply zone is broken I will not consider the trend as changed, but I will look further up to lean on the previous unbroken supply on my direction timeframe. If my trade fails at that level again, then I will not trade again in that direction (down), and will considered the trend changed and now it's up.
These are the rules I follow, very simple, but I just want to follow a KISS method (Keep It Super Simple), or I will unfocus and lose my equity rapidly
Hope that helps to understand my charts and the way I trade. I just concentrate on H1 and H4 levels, going lower is just too much since I track about 20 pairs and I want to do swing trading and walk away to see the trades work or fail, that's all.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
... I noticed that you are using modified indic for SD which also shows pips number inside, could you share it please? thnx a lot.
would be happy to follow your thread too, just let me know .. in the mean time I will try to play with spreadsheet.
