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Let's Trade Options

  • #61
  • May 16, 2013 2:26am May 16, 2013 2:26am
EWZ, why he no can go high high like other stocks? Just a year ago EWZ up to $70, now $54, can't break $60. Somebody bought 20,000 Mar 22 2014 $70 calls today for $0.22. A $4,400 bet to pay $300k+ with 10 months to pan out.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #62
  • May 16, 2013 2:49am May 16, 2013 2:49am
ABX was active today, 98,000 calls/17,000 puts. Somebody bought 33,000 Jan 2015 $35 calls for $0.98.

Jan 2015, hmmm. Seems certain gold/gold miners will rise again when whiffs of inflation can be detected. Bet those calls will be had cheaper soon, though.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #63
  • May 16, 2013 2:54am May 16, 2013 2:54am
Quoting The Fool
EWZ, why he no can go high high like other stocks? Just a year ago EWZ up to $70, now $54, can't break $60. Somebody bought 20,000 Mar 22 2014 $70 calls today for $0.22. A $4,400 bet to pay $300k+ with 10 months to pan out. {image}
F. Interesting spot. Just had a look and i may be tempted to buy some if any week it can close above 55.85 in the next few months.

yesterdays close at 54.43 may give us a short term daily play down past $54, yesterdays put closed for 23c

With two days left i need it for 10c or under for me to be interested. IV must be quite high on this short play
  • #64
  • May 16, 2013 2:59am May 16, 2013 2:59am
Quoting The Fool
ABX was active today, 98,000 calls/17,000 puts. Somebody bought 33,000 Jan 2015 $35 calls for $0.98. Jan 2015, hmmm. Seems certain gold/gold miners will rise again when whiffs of inflation can be detected. Bet those calls will be had cheaper soon, though. {image}
Fool, sometimes you have to be careful with these high volume trades as institutions may use options as insurance for positions they already have the opposite way
  • #65
  • May 16, 2013 3:07am May 16, 2013 3:07am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Fool, sometimes you have to be careful with these high volume trades as institutions may use options as insurance for positions they already have the opposite way
Yep, CG, I know. You can't be sure whether the large volume is a hedger or a speculator. Even so, I think the strongest gold miner will be a good candidate for a longterm long call. Gold might drop to $1,100 but it will still be mined & many of the miners stocks get bought on the strength of their dividends. I will keep watching though, prolly still some room to drop.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #66
  • May 16, 2013 3:35am May 16, 2013 3:35am
Short interest in ABX has risen dramatically in the last month, but is still only 1.4% of the float.

Short interest in Yamana (AUY) has dropped, & is 0.7% of the float. AUY Jan '14 $15 calls are $0.50.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #67
  • May 16, 2013 4:33am May 16, 2013 4:33am
Peabody Coal. BTU. Sep $25 calls are $0.40. Coal & nat gas are often perfectly neg correlated. I still think UNG will slide into the summer, and coal will slide in to take its place.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #68
  • May 16, 2013 12:49pm May 16, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting Wulfgar
friday i bid .85 on some TLT 13 jun/aug 119 Call calender spreads... expecting TLT to go sideways for awhile.... currently waiting on XLU to drop down a bit more to sell some June puts on it...
TLT is looking good, yields looking toppy, could see $124 again this Summer.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #69
  • May 16, 2013 5:57pm May 16, 2013 5:57pm
I actually closed the calender today @ 1.05... made .15 profit and flipped the trade into an iron condor.... with volatility this high I got bid 1.25 per contract for a June 124/120/114/110 spread

have a pending june 112/122 strangle @ .10 to lock in profits

this is primarily what i do... range capturing and volatility capturing trades... kinda the easiest thing to do imho

never was very good at picking direction, but I can be pretty accurate when deciding where price wont quite make it to...lol
  • #70
  • May 16, 2013 7:01pm May 16, 2013 7:01pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Facebook closed at $26.60 today so at opening tomorrow i will look to buy fridays expiration $26.00 put. closing price of the option was 7c, so baring no pre market shocks that option should open for around 5c, if it does then i'm buying FB May 2013 26.000 put (FB130518P00026000) -OPR 0.07 {image} 0.02(40.00%) 3:56PM EDT
FB continued its decent today to a low of 25.90, $26 put option opened at 10c and quickly fell to 4c before it rose to a high of 28c before closing at 13c.

I finally got filled for 6c and out for 19c, market was hesitant as was facebook to go deeper so i closed a little early

Prev Close:0.07Open:0.10Bid:0.13Ask:0.14Strike:26.00Expire Date:17-May-13Day's Range:0.04 - 0.28Contract Range:N/A - N/AVolume:11,852Open Interest:30,160
  • #71
  • May 16, 2013 7:08pm May 16, 2013 7:08pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} F. Interesting spot. Just had a look and i may be tempted to buy some if any week it can close above 55.85 in the next few months. yesterdays close at 54.43 may give us a short term daily play down past $54, yesterdays put closed for 23c With two days left i need it for 10c or under for me to be interested. IV must be quite high on this short play
T.F... I probably buy the EWZ $54 put tomorrow just for the days expiration if the pre-market doesn't fall.

the $54 put option closed today at 13c, hoping i can get it for 7c or under,

EWZ May 2013 54.000 put (EWZ130518P00054000)

-OPR

0.13 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.10(43.48%) 3:52PM EDT
  • #72
  • May 16, 2013 7:16pm May 16, 2013 7:16pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F... I probably buy the EWZ $54 put tomorrow just for the days expiration if the pre-market doesn't fall. the $54 put option closed today at 13c, hoping i can get it for 7c or under, EWZ May 2013 54.000 put (EWZ130518P00054000) -OPR 0.13 {image} 0.10(43.48%) 3:52PM EDT
OK, cool, hope that works out. Your 3:1 score on FB was a good one. Would you say these near-expiration trades is mainstay for you?

I didn't pull the trigger on any commodity or miner trades. That long TLT might be the closest thing for me, wanted to watch it tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #73
  • May 16, 2013 7:29pm May 16, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OK, cool, hope that works out. Your 3:1 score on FB was a good one. Would you say these near-expiration trades is mainstay for you? I didn't pull the trigger on any commodity or miner trades. That long TLT might be the closest thing for me, wanted to watch it tomorrow.
T.F. its taken almost 16 months to understand these explosive gamma trades or near expiration trades, its all i focus on, but one must be aware you are set to lose whatever you risk as there is very little time to make adjustments plus you must factor in commission costs.

I have seen prices increase 20,30,40, 100x its value in one day. i'll prove it to you when one comes up. Options is more about math
.
looking at a few markets seems ready for a good fall tomorrow thats why i'm taking that EWZ PUT if it doesn't gap down, also looking at possible dia, spy, c, gs puts for tomorrow but i only know when market opens
  • #74
  • May 16, 2013 7:44pm May 16, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. its taken almost 16 months to understand these explosive gamma trades or near expiration trades, its all i focus on, but one must be aware you are set to lose whatever you risk as there is very little time to make adjustments plus you must factor in commission costs. I have seen prices increase 20,30,40, 100x its value in one day. i'll prove it to you when one comes up. Options is more about math . looking at a few markets seems ready for a good fall tomorrow thats why i'm taking that EWZ PUT if it doesn't gap down, also looking at...
Also may take a pop at GDX, GLD, if price opens lower than there closes today i may be tempted to buy calls but ONLY if the options are cheap enough otherwiss just skip it
  • #75
  • May 16, 2013 7:46pm May 16, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. its taken almost 16 months to understand these explosive gamma trades or near expiration trades, its all i focus on, but one must be aware you are set to lose whatever you risk as there is very little time to make adjustments plus you must factor in commission costs. I have seen prices increase 20,30,40, 100x its value in one day. i'll prove it to you when one comes up. Options is more about math . looking at a few markets seems ready for a good fall tomorrow thats why i'm taking that EWZ PUT if it doesn't gap down, also looking at...
Awesome return potential there, many thanks for posting your trades & I will follow along when I can. I'm looking forward to doing alot more quick trades, just don't have the balance yet in all my accounts.

I might try my hand Friday morning. EWJ May 18 $12 puts are at $0.11. I see the Nikkei is down now -0.67%. Should be some follow through Friday morning. I will watch that.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #76
  • May 16, 2013 7:48pm May 16, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Awesome return potential there, many thanks for posting your trades & I will follow along when I can. I'm looking forward to doing alot more quick trades, just don't have the balance yet in all my accounts. I might try my hand Friday morning. EWJ May 18 $12 puts are at $0.11. I see the Nikkei is down now -0.67%. Should be some follow through Friday morning. I will watch that.
wait let me check for you
  • #77
  • May 16, 2013 7:50pm May 16, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Awesome return potential there, many thanks for posting your trades & I will follow along when I can. I'm looking forward to doing alot more quick trades, just don't have the balance yet in all my accounts. I might try my hand Friday morning. EWJ May 18 $12 puts are at $0.11. I see the Nikkei is down now -0.67%. Should be some follow through Friday morning. I will watch that.
you potential profit may be eaten up by your commission costs
  • #78
  • May 16, 2013 8:02pm May 16, 2013 8:02pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F... I probably buy the EWZ $54 put tomorrow just for the days expiration if the pre-market doesn't fall. the $54 put option closed today at 13c, hoping i can get it for 7c or under, EWZ May 2013 54.000 put (EWZ130518P00054000) -OPR 0.13 {image} 0.10(43.48%) 3:52PM EDT

forgot to mention EWZ closed at $54.42 with after hour trading down 54.30..see below

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index (EWZ)

-NYSEArca

54.42 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.01(0.02%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours : 54.30 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.12 (0.22%) 5:39PM EDT
  • #79
  • May 16, 2013 8:02pm May 16, 2013 8:02pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} you potential profit may be eaten up by your commission costs
I might sell the calls - they're $0.04. It will be very small or on paper. Need to spend some time on those to get a clue.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #80
  • May 16, 2013 8:08pm May 16, 2013 8:08pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I might sell the calls - they're $0.04. It will be very small or on paper. Need to spend some time on those to get a clue.
when you SELL calls you leave yourself open for unlimited upside risk, that stuff a stay well away from plus for 4c

just not worth it or did you mean BUY
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