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  • #24,241
  • May 15, 2013 1:26pm May 15, 2013 1:26pm
Entered short* after supply test, and supply was present on EURJPY 15M. 15+ Pips, @ BE+4 now. TP @ 131.40, Entry @ 131.74.

@ Work so no chart ;(

Edited: Changed "on" to "short" ><;
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,242
  • May 15, 2013 1:56pm May 15, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting ieatbanana
Entered short* after supply test, and supply was present on EURJPY 15M. 15+ Pips, @ BE+4 now. TP @ 131.40, Entry @ 131.74. @ Work so no chart ;( Edited: Changed "on" to "short" ><;
Darn. Another BE.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,243
  • May 15, 2013 2:06pm May 15, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting ieatbanana
Entered short* after supply test, and supply was present on EURJPY 15M. 15+ Pips, @ BE+4 now. TP @ 131.40, Entry @ 131.74. @ Work so no chart ;( Edited: Changed "on" to "short" ><;
Why are you entering short after a test of supply? Did the test fail ?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #24,244
  • May 15, 2013 3:07pm May 15, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Why are you entering short after a test of supply? Did the test fail ?
Yellow Line = Supply Test.

Engulfing bearish after it. I waited for retrace then entered at cyan line.

I thought it would be a valid failed test.

Your input would be greatly appreciated, HG.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_0227.png Size: 77 KB
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,245
  • May 15, 2013 3:55pm May 15, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Yellow Line = Supply Test. Engulfing bearish after it. I waited for retrace then entered at cyan line. I thought it would be a valid failed test. Your input would be greatly appreciated, HG. {image}
Thanks for the chart. I added my own chart as well.

Here's what I think.

I would agree with you that the interval in question is a test. Not just a test, but a failed test. Which is a sign of weakness.

However, there are two major things to take into account.

The first one is the Stopping volume in the immediate background. Note that it was tested two intervals later and price did indeed move up. So one does need to be aware of the strength in the background.

The second is a bit more personal and I know most don't like it. When this failed test appears, the bars are blue. Blue bars mean an up trend of some degree or another. So while the bars are blue, I am not take any shorts. The bars do infact turn red about three intervals later. But look at the second interval after they turn back to red. It's a No Supply. I would have been looking for a No Demand to confirm the failed test. That is, as price moved back up (retraced) towards the failed test, I would like to see an Up bar on low volume.

But I want to step back to my original question. I can see that you were looking at a failed test when you were looking to get short. It just appeared from your comment that you were getting short after a test. Which would be the wrong thing to do.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ex 4.png Size: 154 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #24,246
  • May 15, 2013 5:51pm May 15, 2013 5:51pm
Quoting ieatbanana
Yellow Line = Supply Test. Engulfing bearish after it. I waited for retrace then entered at cyan line. I thought it would be a valid failed test. Your input would be greatly appreciated, HG.
Just a thought . . There's too little chart here. What about the background? Did the background support a short at this time? Are you falling into the trap that used to get me: Only looking at the right edge and not taking trades in harmony with the bigger picture.
  • #24,247
  • May 15, 2013 9:41pm May 15, 2013 9:41pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Thanks for the chart. I added my own chart as well. Here's what I think. I would agree with you that the interval in question is a test. Not just a test, but a failed test. Which is a sign of weakness. However, there are two major things to take into account. The first one is the Stopping volume in the immediate background. Note that it was tested two intervals later and price did indeed move up. So one does need to be aware of the strength in the background. The second is a bit more personal and I know most don't like it. When this failed...
Unfortunately, for my part, I did not see the increased of volume at the price turn point [please see orange box in attachments]. We have different feed, unfortunately.

From my perspective, based on my chart, volume was steadily decreasing until the [your chart] first test. Then it surged for the next 3 candles.. the first two had long low wicks [support from SM's?] , and the third was an indecision candle. Price proceeded to move up with decreasing volume [SM kept price up, but not interested in up move?]

And price was reaching to a supply zone where price dropped rapidly [left of chart]. Low volume up move + failed supply near supply zone = supply present [my thinking process].

And I did not even notice that no supply bar. Thank you for pointing it out.

I am grateful for your personal input on my chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ex 4.png Size: 193 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_0227.png Size: 83 KB
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,248
  • May 15, 2013 9:52pm May 15, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting MarcusFire
{quote} Just a thought . . There's too little chart here. What about the background? Did the background support a short at this time? Are you falling into the trap that used to get me: Only looking at the right edge and not taking trades in harmony with the bigger picture.
It is sufficient chart size for me [I have small eyes anyways!]. I try to stick to the trend [my bias was still down since yesterday], unless price tells me to do otherwise [and hopefully not by taking a loss].

Price did end up hitting my anticipated TP. I moved my stoploss too soon? Most likely, but oh wells.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,249
  • May 15, 2013 10:01pm May 15, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting MarcusFire
{quote} Just a thought . . There's too little chart here. What about the background? Did the background support a short at this time? Are you falling into the trap that used to get me: Only looking at the right edge and not taking trades in harmony with the bigger picture.
Oh, I forgot to mention.. thank you for your advice though I'll try to zoom out.. it is a mobile phone afterall.. ><;
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,250
  • May 15, 2013 11:26pm May 15, 2013 11:26pm
EURJPY M15

Sometimes is OK to look higher time frame ...Red line is supply level on H4....Maybe it is OK to look to short only for period of time if there is urge to trade...I might be wrong of course...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM15.png Size: 53 KB
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #24,251
  • May 16, 2013 12:47am May 16, 2013 12:47am
Quoting mima
EURJPY M15 Sometimes is OK to look higher time frame ...Red line is supply level on H4....Maybe it is OK to look to short only for period of time if there is urge to trade...I might be wrong of course... {image}
I agree :]
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,252
  • May 16, 2013 1:34am May 16, 2013 1:34am
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Oh, I forgot to mention.. thank you for your advice though I'll try to zoom out.. it is a mobile phone afterall.. ><;
It reached your target... but today only!

And just commenting a bit on your trade, the short was valid for a scalp because as was pointed out, there is SOS in the background.
Another case for your short would've the the UT the price made when testing the lower area of the broken range. Note that the price bleed back to the demand area, from where it bounced back, as expected.
Then, it formed a great signal to go long, as pointed out by this test like bar formed into the high volume area.
As in the picture, the best tests are when it forms within the high volume area. Sometimes it does not happens as the retrace is shallow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-05-16_EJ_15min.png Size: 76 KB


And, your volume is very different from mine as well. Very strange. Maybe try to get the feed from another broker. Which one are you using now?

Cheers!
  • #24,253
  • May 16, 2013 1:44am May 16, 2013 1:44am
Quoting joaoborras
{quote} It reached your target... but today only! And just commenting a bit on your trade, the short was valid for a scalp because as was pointed out, there is SOS in the background. Another case for your short would've the the UT the price made when testing the lower area of the broken range. Note that the price bleed back to the demand area, from where it bounced back, as expected. Then, it formed a great signal to go long, as pointed out by this test like bar formed into the high volume area. As in the picture, the best tests are when it forms...
I'm using ATC Brokers, which use FXCM's feed, as far as I'm aware.

And thank you for your post! And looks like I need to get a new broker, HM.

1.) No buying interest
2.) Increased Volume and wide spread.. I guess there is buying interest.
3.) Selling pressure?
4.) Reverse Upthrust... HM.. Fishy.
5.) No Selling Pressure.

I'll be long if there's a supply test and results to back it up, but for the short term.

Personally, there isn't enough conviction of long for me, but I am just a noob
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym15.png Size: 47 KB
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,254
  • May 16, 2013 1:45am May 16, 2013 1:45am
Is that a test I see?
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,255
  • May 16, 2013 1:56am May 16, 2013 1:56am
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} I'm using ATC Brokers, which use FXCM's feed, as far as I'm aware. And thank you for your post! And looks like I need to get a new broker, HM. 1.) No buying interest 2.) Increased Volume and wide spread.. I guess there is buying interest. 3.) Selling pressure? 4.) Reverse Upthrust... HM.. Fishy. 5.) No Selling Pressure. I'll be long if there's a supply test and results to back it up, but for the short term. Personally, there isn't enough conviction of long for me, but I am just a noob {image}
Good idea wait for the long.
The better place to think about longs, as I see it, are back below into the demand area or after it breaks that last supply area.
If it breaks up, then wait for a test of the old highs(hopefully it will get us one!
  • #24,256
  • May 16, 2013 2:03am May 16, 2013 2:03am
Another observation on EJ.

15min chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-05-16_EJ_analysis_2.png Size: 62 KB
  • #24,257
  • May 16, 2013 2:18am May 16, 2013 2:18am
Quoting joaoborras
Another observation on EJ. 15min chart. {image}
Nicely done.

For me, what stands out is the decreasing volume with downbars [no selling pressure] and the little bump of volume we just had.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym15.png Size: 61 KB
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,258
  • May 16, 2013 2:24am May 16, 2013 2:24am
IEB, take a look at the Trade Interceptor app for your phone, I use it every day and really like it. Their feed is excellent and is also FXCM.
  • #24,259
  • May 16, 2013 2:30am May 16, 2013 2:30am
Quoting joaoborras
Another observation on EJ. 15min chart. {image}
Anywho, I'll be going to sleep Joao.

Getting quite sleepy. . I'm going to sit this one out.. or rather lay [on bed] this one out.

May the Goddess of Fortune smile upon you tonight.

My bias is still down, but I hope I'm proven wrong when I check the charts tomorrow ;D

Zone of supply Mima pointed out earlier in chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym15.png Size: 66 KB
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,260
  • May 16, 2013 2:31am May 16, 2013 2:31am
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Nicely done. For me, what stands out is the decreasing volume with downbars [no selling pressure] and the little bump of volume we just had. {image}
Yeap, I am also watching it.
Now, it seems we had a potential spring at 131.64.
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