Scalping - target 65% per month

Hi,

I am swing trader and doing fine. Have a job, reasonable pay, etc and decided to take a break, forget rat race a bit, and do some trading & other better things in life. Instead of playing my swing trades, will use swing signals to load as many contracts as I can in number of scalps and ride them as far as I can with preset risk level.

My target is 65% profit per months for 3 consecutive months. This is a bit on a high end but that is required level to extend my stay away from rats.

Will add trade explorer soon. I want to make this transparent for me & everyone so I can progress as trader. Yeah, likely will not make and will have to back to work. But one never knows when markets suddenly become generous, so I may get lucky. I will risk $200 per trade. Hoping to generate 3 quality trades per day. My mind only allows 1 trade at the time, so will have to be scalping.

Main inputs in trade decision are news, fundamentals and cycles. My view is that stock markets are in bull, and this presents great risk reward options - only risk on trades. Until one can identify moment just before music WILL stop. That is when you reverse !!!! I may use TA but this is not clarified.

My cut off point is 10 risks from the high of account. 1 risk is defined as amount risked per trade. I will set it to $200. 10 risks is 2000 down therefore I need account balance 3,000 AUD, to allow for margin. I will fund it next week with GoMarkets.

I give myself flexibility to enter larger sizes if I feel strongly. I have another account designed for swing trading that I will use to take outsized bets. I will indicate these.

Will post trade signal. Use limits to enter trade, so will be before time. Then will post chart with comments for convinience of analysing them.

I do not have enough sample of trades to derive good rules so have to guess a bit (swing trader only so far).

My benchmark for each trade will be this system (which can be automated):

1. Once trade in plus 1 risk, move stop to be.
a) if trade does not reach +1 risk and is not stopped in 40 minutes, exit immediately.
2. Take profit at 2 risks profit.


**disregard rules in second post. That is version zero.

My actual number of pips will be compared to above rules.
I will now fasten my seatbelt.

Will review bet size monthly . Bet size can go only up.

My expectation is to earn 1/3 risk per trade on average based on past statistics. Three trades should then produce profit equal 1 risk on average. Targetting 3 trades per day. In first month need to average $170 profit per day. Hope to make extra trades, to cover for slippage/errors/underperformance which will sure be present.

I do not have enough sample of trades to derive good rules so have to guess a bit (swing trader only so far). My benchmark for each trade will be this system:

1. Once trade in plus 1 risk including spread, move stop to be.
2. Take profit at 2 risks profit.

My actual number of pips will be compared to above rules.

Example: if trade is 0.5 risk in profit, and I decide to exit with 0.5 risk pl, then trade goes to full 2 risks profit, will allocate -1.5 risk to my discretionary call. If trade reverses and falls to the stop level, will credit +1.5 risk. Overtime will get some underperformance of actual results but one should see improvement with time.

good luck

,looking forward to your quest.its possible

Thks. I will be watching your thread too

I will use my swing trading signals and trade only in direction of swing signals and possibly increased size, when present. Have not detailed plan yet. Too busy with other things in life.

This is equity curve of my swinging as at end of '12 that will hopefully help getting there.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1352027849

This year yoyo up till AUDUSD sell at 10234 on wed last week.

Current signal SELL AUDUSD. Shorting only.

Motivation for this thread :

1. My track record of good swing signals.
2. I was always thinking there is better way to capitalize on these signals. These trades are for fund manager, only large swings with stops, and not for guy with couple of contracts. And here found comment of one guy that I believe is for real that inspired me
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It is possible to enter trades with very tight stops and profit on more than 75% of the trades. Investigate how to do this, and lots of interesting discoveries await. The answers are out there, but they're not in any of the textbooks, websites, seminars, or courses I've ever seen.
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and

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Even a small/medium size independent trader with a $1 million account would do better trading a 50 in the GC futures with a 3 point stop compared to trading a 5 with a 30 point stop working a fundamental or macro concept. Of course, doing this way, the vig is high, you need to concentrate, know exactly what you are looking for, and unless you are a top level expert (I'm not) deal with your fair share of losses along the way.
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so, yeah, that s what i am going after. I do not have 1m account but swing trades are several contracts. Analysing swing trades and applying simple technical method that enters only in direction of signal with couple of pips stop and exit several % movement, produces more $ for less risk. That is theory at least. See if I can do it for real.

Trade 1 - test, ignore

trade 2

eurjpy sell 132.12, stop 21 pips, half size.

discretionary exit = +5.5

update1 - trade after 1 hr and 30 minutes after entry still at the area i closed, so exit was ok. Will set time limit to 40 minutes when trade has to reach + 1R after entry, in this case 21 pips + spread else dump it. Will finetune later if necessary.

Above rule achieves same result therefore my discretionary exit same as if exit by the 40 min rule.

Discretionary +5.5
robot = +5.5

i am not fully commited yet (still working) and plan 1 trade a day or so.

Actually I am not sure how many good trades can produce per day as never tried.

Also my shortterm system is in building stage, so expecting more errors.

Pretty sure method works but needs serious commitment.

limit order sell aud 9755, stop 9765.

playing half size until reach +200. Then switch to full. Liitle filter when start trading that saved me a bit in the past.

my trade explorer not working FF looking into issue.


update. no hit after 15 minutes. Will give another 15 then cancel. so far came to 6 pips from my level.

update 2: eurusd also sell signal. However, eur stronger currency today.

update 3: 12 minutes passed eur started rolling down, aud as well without me. Cancelling order NOW.

END

have no idea at this stage whether 10 pips stop too narow. 2 eaten by spread. so really 8.

gathering stats now.

TRADE 3 - buy aud 9731, stop 6 pip

update 1 stop to 27

stop 28 - now chance of reversal increased. coming second stage of trade

will the trade survive ? 3 pips risk to go. now checking price every 5 min.

closed +1

did not perform when expected.

END


My default suystem would clock full win which is + 12 pips.

I exit +1, therefore robot ahead 1.8 R
Actually above is incorrect. According to system would have to move stop to BE and then would be stopped out and earn 0 pips.

Therefore discretionary ahead 0.2 risk. I think initila stop should not be used for later stages as this particular one was technical. Will calculate initial distance price has to travel before moving to be based on ATR.


Update : price reached 70 before turning down, therefore providing max 39 pips realisable. This is 6x original risk.

trade 4 gold: buy 78.50, stop 76. Test trade to see value of pip - IGNORE.

ok, update . cost me $1.85 for $1.85 difference using 0.01.

so, 1 contract will be $100 per 1 dollar gold movement.

$10 gold movement stop will require size 0.2 for $200 risk.

AUD bottomed for the day.

trade 5: buy gold 1377, stop 73.

result -0.07 risk.

Discretionary exit. Did not like the action.

Effect: I saved 0.93 risk with discretionary exit.

TOTAL discretionary contribution +1.13 risk

Total so far balance +0.35 risk

Thats it for the day. Sleep time now. Today made 2 trades. First entry was fine, exit crap. Second entry bad but exit excellent.

New task is to find appropraite ATR to be used as a measure when to move stop to be. My guess ATR of 15 min bars.... Will test.

Ideally ATR from the same time of day averaged over say 10 days. Say, 10 bars taken 8:15 to 8:30 for last 10 days. Will have to do some programming looks like.

Wrong. So much for predictions.

However my exit in gold proven precise