Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Friday 6/16/2006 4:15 ET

TS #101E Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity at about 1.8540 - 1.8550

Stop is 1.8565

Target is 1.8380

Risk is max. 29 pips

Reward is min. 156 pips

Reward : Risk is 5.4 to 1

Stop on last trade signal was a typo, mistakenly typed as 1.8515 which is the entry price. In case one was stopped out or exited the trade to take profits when the price descended to 1.8462 from about 1.8515, then this is a re-entry opportunity.
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Previous trade signals:

TS #101D Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity at about 1.8515
Thursday 6/15/2006 9:30 ET

TIC Capital Inflow data was much worse than expected, causing a severe upwards spike in GBP/USD which stopped us out. The correct strategy, as outlined earlier, would have been to bring the stop up to a tight level immediately before the data release, reducing the losses to a very small level.

TS #101D Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity at about 1.8515
Stop is 1.8515
Target is is 1.8380

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TS #101C Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity and revised target
Wednesday 6/14/2006 22:00 ET
GBP/USD went down to 1.8405, then up to a recent high of 1.8467. One could sell GBP/USD now, at a price of between 1.8450 and 1.8467, and hold to a target of 1.8380. Then we expect GBP/USD to reverse and ascend to about 1.8550 to 1.8600.
New target for short GBP/USD trade is 1.8380.
Stop is 1.8483
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 70 pips
Reward : risk ratio is min. 2 : 1

itme,

GBP/JPY stopped out again. Are you still confident in this trade? I left one open from a lower level against better judgement and your advice and I think I may go ahead and dump it. In your opinion, though, do you think this is just temporary caused by the recent positive UK news?

It does seem to have broken a significant new high on the weekly chart, though, so this does concern me. I have a stop loss at a level acceptable to me so if you are confident I'll just leave it in and see if it hits my SL level

Great postings, by the way, I enjoy following them and subscribe to your thread.

I made a few pips on this pair yesterday but made an unwise sell move at a price which appears to be a huge resistance point! If you look at the chart you'll notice it bounces off of 212.16 (or very close) time after time. Well, that is where my open short position is! The market knows No worries, I have a very small position open so even with the large pip range deviation the loss is quite small if it stops out for me.

Friday 6/16/2006 9:00 ET

TS#107B Sell GBP/CHF - re-enter sell at 2.2805 or raise stop

Stop is 2.2817

For research purposes only.

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Previous trade signal:

TS#107 Sell GBP/CHF -

Thursday 6/15/2006 23:30 ET
Adjust stop upwards 9 pips to 2.2791

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Thursday 6/15/2006 18:30 ET
TS#107 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.2760 to 2.2780
Stop is 2.2782
Target #1 is 2.2580
Target #2 is 2.2480
Target #3 is 2.2400
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 165 / 265 / 345 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.5 / 7.2 / 9.3 to 1
The probability of hitting Target #2 is good.

For research purposes only. Trade at your own risk and be careful.

Friday 6/16/2006 8:45 ET

TS#88E Re-Enter Sell GBP/JPY at 213.11 or as close to this level as possible

Stop is 213.26

Signs are good that this is the final real high.

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Previous trade signals:

TS#88D Re-Enter Sell GBP/JPY at 212.50 to 212.60 Friday 6/16/2006 3:30 ET

TS#88D Re-Enter Sell GBP/JPY at 212.50 to 212.60 if you exited to take profits (as advised by last trade signal) at 212.10 to 212.20
Stop is 212.85
The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85

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Thursday 6/15/2006 16:15 ET

TS#88D Sell GBP/JPY at 212.70 to 212.80 - temporary exit advised

Recommend temporary exit of this short trade at about 212.10 to 212.20 to take profits of about 50 pips and wait for re-entry at higher price.

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Thursday 6/15/2006 9:30 ET

TS#88D Sell GBP/JPY at 212.70 to 212.80
Previous trade was stopped out by TIC data upwards spike.
Hopefully the traders were all wary and placed tight stops previous to release of the significant data.
Re-entry opportunity comes again.
Stop is 213.07

Friday 6/16/2006 9:15 ET

TS #103B Re-Enter Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4140 approx.

Stop is 1.4171

For research purposes only.

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Previous trade signals:

Tuesday 6/14/2006 10:00 ET
TS #103A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4055 - 1.4065
Stop is 1.4092
Target #1 is 1.3700
Risk is max. 47 pips
Reward is min. 345 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 7.3 to 1

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TS #103 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.3970 - 1.3990
Tuesday 6/14/2006 1:15 ET
TS #103
Sell EUR/CAD at 1.3970 - 1.3990
Stop loss is 1.4013
Risk is max. 48 pips
Target #1 is 1.3700
Reward is min. 255 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 5.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Friday 6/16/2006 10:00 ET

TS#105 Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1200 - 1.1215

Stop is 112.41

Alternative strategy that is safer, but may not be realised:

Sell USD/CAD at 112.30 with a stop at 112.72
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Previous trade signals:

TS#105 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1175 - 1.1185 - temporary exit advised
Thursday 6/15/2006 116:30 ET
Exit temporarily at about 1.1110 and re-enter about 40 or 50 pips higher if desired.

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Thursday 6/15/2006 11:15 ET
TS #105 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1175 - 1.1185
Stop loss is 1.1197
Risk is max. 27 pips
Target #1 is 1.0925
Reward is min. 245 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

gbpchf at 2,2805 stopped out again... usdcad still in loss

Friday 6/16/2006 11:30 ET

Excellent Trade Opportunity:

TS#103C Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4200 approx.

Stop is 1.4221

Target #1 is 1.3700

Risk is max. 31 pips

Reward is min. 490 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 16.3 to 1

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Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/16/2006 9:15 ET
TS #103B Re-Enter Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4140 approx.
Stop is 1.4171

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Tuesday 6/14/2006 10:00 ET
TS #103A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4055 - 1.4065
Stop is 1.4092
Target #1 is 1.3700
Risk is max. 47 pips
Reward is min. 345 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 7.3 to 1

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Tuesday 6/14/2006 1:15 ET
TS #103 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.3970 - 1.3990
Stop loss is 1.4013
Risk is max. 48 pips
Target #1 is 1.3700
Reward is min. 255 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 5.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Friday 6/16/2006 12:00 ET

TS#107B Sell GBP/CHF - Missed after three tries!

The big rise went to an esoteric target ( 2.2820) that we did not expect it to reach. Both of our models confirm that this high price is a probable endpoint of the uptrend.

The bounce action so far is strong (down to 2.2777, about 45 pips lower).

The strategy is to wait for the top of the next retracement wave and then enter the market with a short position.

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Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/16/2006 9:00 ET

TS#107B Sell GBP/CHF - re-enter sell at 2.2805 or raise stop
Stop is 2.2817

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TS#107 Sell GBP/CHF -

Thursday 6/15/2006 23:30 ET
Adjust stop upwards 9 pips to 2.2791

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Thursday 6/15/2006 18:30 ET
TS#107 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.2760 to 2.2780
Stop is 2.2782
Target #1 is 2.2580
Target #2 is 2.2480
Target #3 is 2.2400
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 165 / 265 / 345 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.5 / 7.2 / 9.3 to 1
The probability of hitting Target #2 is good.

For research purposes only. Trade at your own risk and be careful.

Friday 6/16/2006 12:30 ET

GBP/USD is likely to turn around and rise to about 1.8575 before continuing further on downwards. We therefore advise:

TS #101E Sell GBP/USD Revise Target to 1.8470

If this target is successfully met, then the profit will be min. 65 pips
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Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/16/2006 4:15 ET

TS #101E Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity at about 1.8540 - 1.8550
Stop is 1.8565
Target is 1.8380
Risk is max. 29 pips
Reward is min. 156 pips
Reward : Risk is 5.4 to 1
Stop on last trade signal was a typo, mistakenly typed as 1.8515 which is the entry price. In case one was stopped out or exited the trade to take profits when the price descended to 1.8462 from about 1.8515, then this is a re-entry opportunity.
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TS #101D Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity at about 1.8515
Thursday 6/15/2006 9:30 ET

TIC Capital Inflow data was much worse than expected, causing a severe upwards spike in GBP/USD which stopped us out. The correct strategy, as outlined earlier, would have been to bring the stop up to a tight level immediately before the data release, reducing the losses to a very small level.

TS #101D Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity at about 1.8515
Stop is 1.8515
Target is is 1.8380

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TS #101C Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity and revised target
Wednesday 6/14/2006 22:00 ET
GBP/USD went down to 1.8405, then up to a recent high of 1.8467. One could sell GBP/USD now, at a price of between 1.8450 and 1.8467, and hold to a target of 1.8380. Then we expect GBP/USD to reverse and ascend to about 1.8550 to 1.8600.
New target for short GBP/USD trade is 1.8380.
Stop is 1.8483
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 70 pips
Reward : risk ratio is min. 2 : 1

Friday 6/16/2006 12:45 ET

TS#105 Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1230 - 1.1250

The regular stop was hit, but for those who chose the conservative strategy, they entered at 112.30, and have not been stopped out. For those not in this trade, re-enter at the highest price possible in the range 1.1230 to 1.1250.

Stop is 112.72
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Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/16/2006 10:00 ET
TS#105 Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1200 - 1.1215
Stop is 112.41
Alternative strategy that is safer, but may not be realised:
Sell USD/CAD at 112.30 with a stop at 112.72
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TS#105 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1175 - 1.1185 - temporary exit advised
Thursday 6/15/2006 116:30 ET
Exit temporarily at about 1.1110 and re-enter about 40 or 50 pips higher if desired.

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Thursday 6/15/2006 11:15 ET
TS #105 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1175 - 1.1185
Stop loss is 1.1197
Risk is max. 27 pips
Target #1 is 1.0925
Reward is min. 245 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Friday 6/16/2006 14:30 ET


TS #108 Sell AUD/CAD at 0.8297

Stop loss is 0.8311

Risk is max. 24 pips

Target #1 is 0.8200

Target #2 is 0.8100

Reward is min. 87 / 187 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 3.6 / 7.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Commentary: The highest price reached before the plunge was .8305 on Tuesday 6/20 at 6:00 ET, 6 pips short of the stop. This pair then descended quickly to .8123, 23 pips above Target #2, by wednesday 6/21 11:00 ET, and then rose to .8246 at 6/23 12:00 ET.

Friday 6/16/2006 15:30 ET

EUR/JPY price rose to 145.63 - which is approximately the same height reached on Thursday June 8th - one week ago. In the interim it fell 200 pips to 143.66 and then rose the same amount. We were stopped out of the previous trade, but feel that the current entry is most likely the real top.

TS#89E

Re-Entry - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 145.45 - 145.65

Stop is 145.77

Target #1 is 143.70
Target #2 is 142.75

Risk is max. 36 pips

Reward is min. 171 / 266 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.8 / 7.4 to 1


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Previous trade signals:

TS#89D - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 145.10 - 145.20
Thursday 6/15/2006 10:00 ET

Sharp spike caused by poor TIC data caused us to be stopped out. Hopefully the traders were all wary and placed tight stops previous to release of the significant data. Re-entry opportunity has now presented itself.
Stop is 145.36
Risk is max. 30 pips
Targets as below.

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Tuesday 6/14/2006 10:00 ET
TS#89C - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 144.85 - 144.95
Strange spike just caused an excellent re-entry opportunity.
Stop is 145.07

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Tuesday 6/14/2006 4:00 ET
TS#89B - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 144.70 - 144.80
Stop is 144.96
Targets as below

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TS#89A Re-enter Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 143.95 to 144.05 was stopped out when the price rose to 144.93.
We expect another rise to either 145.00, 145.25 or 145.50, which will be a re-entry opportunity on the downwards trend that began when the price earlier reached 145.70
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Monday 6/12/2006 10:15 ET
Re-Entry Opportunity TS#89A Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 143.95 to 144.05
Stop is 144.12
Target #1 is 143.20
Target #2 is 143.00
Target #3 is 142.70
Risk is max. 20 pips
Reward (min.) at Target #3 is 122 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.1 to 1 (Target #3)

For research purposes only.

Friday 6/16/2006 16:00 ET

TS #101E

Sell GBP/USD Trade - Re-Enter and Revise Target to 1.8455

GBP/USD reversed at about 1.8470 as predicted and then rose 86 pips to 1.8556.

We exited as specified and then carefully studied this situation and re-entered our short trade at this higher price, but neglected to generate a trade signal.

For those who stayed in, the new target is 1.8455. For those who exited, we hope that you re-sold at 1.8550 and are in a short position. For those who exited and did not re-enter at the top, we recommend re-entering at the best price between the current price of 1.8494 and 1.8520 you can obtain, and set 1.8455 as your target.

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Previous trade signal:

TS #101E Sell GBP/USD Trade - Revise Target to 1.8470
Friday 6/16/2006 12:30 ET

GBP/USD is likely to turn around and rise to about 1.8575 before continuing further on downwards. We therefore advise exiting at 1.8470. If this target is successfully met, then the profit will be min. 65 pips

Any new comments on GBP/JPY? This one doesn't seem like it's coming back down! I was finally stopped out by the market open jump today on my open trade. I am debating whether I should try shorting this pair again.

It gapped up, I think it will at least come backdown to fill the gap.

I had been expecting this pair to get to 213, and waiting for that to occur. I had been planning on shorting this pair at that point.

I was thinking that if I intended to short at this time, I might have to put my stop above 213.71, or wait until the pair gave some convincing sign of intending to turn downward and keep going that way. At present, I am wondering whether it will go up to 213.71 again. Any thoughts?

Good chance it will go higher is my bet. Now at 213.25 and if the Elliot Wave count seems complete as it nears 214.00 then demo sell at least. Might go down near 213.00 before up though...

Regards

This chart has me guessing again.

Monday 6/19/2006 16:00 ET

TS #101F - GBP/USD Trade - Re-Enter at 1.8435 and Revise Target to 1.8320

As expected, GBP/USD rose to 1.8526 and then proceeded to our conservative target of 1.8455. It then proceeded much further, down to 1.8370, indicating a reversal of the medium term trend. It is now bouncing and will soon present a re-entry opportunity at about 1.8435 or higher, with a conservative target of 1.8320, offering a potential reward of a minimum of 110 pips.

Stop is 1.8471, so the risk is max. 40 pips.

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Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/16/2006 16:00 ET
TS #101E
Sell GBP/USD Trade - Re-Enter and Revise Target to 1.8455
GBP/USD reversed at about 1.8470 as predicted and then rose 86 pips to 1.8556.
We exited as specified and then carefully studied this situation and re-entered our short trade at this higher price, but neglected to generate a trade signal.
For those who stayed in, the new target is 1.8455. For those who exited, we hope that you re-sold at 1.8550 and are in a short position. For those who exited and did not re-enter at the top, we recommend re-entering at the best price between the current price of 1.8494 and 1.8520 you can obtain, and set 1.8455 as your target.

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TS #101E Sell GBP/USD Trade - Revise Target to 1.8470
Friday 6/16/2006 12:30 ET
GBP/USD is likely to turn around and rise to about 1.8575 before continuing further on downwards. We therefore advise exiting at 1.8470. If this target is successfully met, then the profit will be min. 65 pips