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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,581
  • May 11, 2013 7:42am May 11, 2013 7:42am
Quoting traider
{quote} Ego and paranoia. The former has always driven the markets, the latter increasingly rears its head and with some basis it has to be said. If there is anything I take from my travels in these threads its to do my risk homework and tighten up my technical accuracy, all the while recognising that the new market will be increasingly unforgiving. Alternately we may want to consider FTI's sound advice (bearing in mind that he has been at the coalface of this profession) as a lot of the old methods clearly are not working anymore.
May I ask what you mean by the statement :
( as a lot of the old methods clearly are not working anymore. ) thanks

salaam
  • #40,582
  • May 11, 2013 7:43am May 11, 2013 7:43am
Quoting traider
{quote} One could be said to be understandably delusional in being unwilling to acknowledge that it is a degree of ego that brings all of of us, to the trading game, the human condition being what it is. Additionally, one can be forgiven for being naive in not recognising the risk that increasing deregulation of the financial services carries with it. Righteous indignation strikes all of us down from time to time. However it takes monumental stupidity to take offence at an agnostic, neutral statement of these facts. I simply cannot get over the...
Thanks for the assist..

The 'mirror', it is an analogy of one of the many lessons I've learnt here ...it will truthfully reflect, highlight and warn at a single glance...or a long honest look.. environment,conditioning,terrain,arrogance,discipline,courage in the enemy, in the battle or in... oneself ...as you 'appear' to have interpreted..

'shocking' as it may be.. this post had nothing to do with you..until you looked in the mirror...your comments are irrelevant.. but the 'mirror' is relevant ..'human condition being what it is' .. one should ask "What is my 'human condition'?"... am I fit ?

thankyou for adding considerable weight to the analogy..

This is FTI's thread...
  • #40,583
  • May 11, 2013 7:59am May 11, 2013 7:59am
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Thanks for the assist.. The 'mirror', it is an analogy of one of the many lessons I've learnt here ...it will truthfully reflect, highlight and warn at a single glance...or a long honest look.. environment,conditioning,terrain,arrogance,discipline,courage in the enemy, in the battle or in... oneself ...as you 'appear' to have interpreted.. 'shocking' as it may be.. this post had nothing to do with you..until you looked in the mirror...your comments are irrelevant.. but the 'mirror' is relevant ..'human condition being what it is' .. one...

Oh spare me the waffle and claptrap. My statement was simply as follows:

Ego and paranoia mark the trading profession. Understandably so especially as the market deregulates and risk increases. Therefore take measures to secure yourself and bone up technically or else follow FTI's sage advice.

Where the heck in that is there need for a mirror? You need to pick your arguments! This was not that occasion.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #40,584
  • May 11, 2013 8:05am May 11, 2013 8:05am
Quoting mr.kho
{quote} May I ask what you mean by the statement : ( as a lot of the old methods clearly are not working anymore. ) thanks salaam
Let us consider that FTI who has extensive experience going back 30 years, in this game, issuing that prudential advice about the state of the market. Clearly, in there is the inference that we are in exceptional times...we as retail traders can only reasonably translate that statement with that outcome. Anything else would be absurd.

That is what I took from that advice...that we in fact are in unchartered waters and therefore I shall act in the appropriate manner. For me that is technical perfection and due diligence. All the while remembering that if all else fails, I may move to another asset class.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #40,585
  • May 11, 2013 9:04am May 11, 2013 9:04am
Quoting traider
{quote} Let us consider that FTI who has extensive experience going back 30 years, in this game, issuing that prudential advice about the state of the market. Clearly, in there is the inference that we are in exceptional times...we as retail traders can only reasonably translate that statement with that outcome. Anything else would be absurd. That is what I took from that advice...that we in fact are in unchartered waters and therefore I shall act in the appropriate manner. For me that is technical perfection and due diligence. All the while remembering...
thanks for the elaboration,,as there is saying ;

There is nothing new in trading,,
There is nothing new under the sun.,,
but,don't following the rule blindly so that when the conditions change, the rules can too.

salaam
  • #40,586
  • Edited 3:31pm May 11, 2013 2:24pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting traider
{quote} One could be said to be understandably delusional in being unwilling to acknowledge that it is a degree of ego that brings all of of us, to the trading game, the human condition being what it is. Additionally, one can be forgiven for being naive in not recognising the risk that increasing deregulation of the financial services carries with it. Righteous indignation strikes all of us down from time to time. However it takes monumental stupidity to take offence at an agnostic, neutral statement of these facts. I simply cannot get over the...
As I was the only person who had replied to your comments at the time that you made the above post, it must be my reaction to which you are referring. Clearly you are not the kind of person who can have a difference of opinion in an online forum and just let it go. Not only that but by inference you seem to be calling me monumentally stupid, which I obviously find rather offensive. As I said before, it is not for you to decide whether your statements are agnostic or neutral - you don't get to dictate how other people perceive your comments - so please stop making such absurd declarations.

In my humble opinion, you need to lose your monumental ego.
Quote
So even when I post tips, 90% of the work will have to be done by the traders. I am pretty busy at the moment but I'll put out something in a few weeks time.
I don't know what other posters think but I am not in the least bit interested in hearing any of your tips. When you come into a well established thread started by a market pro with decades of experience and you try to treat the participants like hungry dogs waiting for crumbs of wisdom to drop from your table, you shouldn't expect a warm welcome.

Ooh, I forgot the ignore list - Thank goodness for small mercies, that'll save me some time.
  • #40,587
  • Edited 3:41pm May 11, 2013 3:38pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} As I was the only person who had replied to your comments at the time that you made the above post, it must be my reaction to which you are referring. Clearly you are not the kind of person who can have a difference of opinion in an online forum and just let it go. Not only that but by inference you seem to be calling me monumentally stupid, which I obviously find rather offensive. As I said before, it is not for you to decide whether your statements are agnostic or neutral - you don't get to dictate how other people perceive your comments...
The problem is your perception of my meaning, not me. You ought to take some of that "sage" advice of yours and pick your arguments. Every comment of mine bar the one as regards FTI's state of mind, was neutral. However, like lap dogs, you take offence if you perceive any attack upon FTI. FTI is old enough and wise enough to defend himself where he feels he is being unwarrantedly attacked. That was not the case. My points were simple:

1 As deregulation deepens, market high jinks will increase, nostalgia notwithstanding: AND

2 The only options are to be a better technician or to follow FTI's advice.

As regards my opinion as regards FTI's state of mind, one would have to be an utter dunce not the regret the loss of ethics across all the business sectors.

I would suggest that you consider my posts before spouting off in future. I always post in a neutral tone as I have no agenda to promote. If you disagree with my reasoning.. challenge it rationally, don't give me this schoolyard nonsense which is utterly irrelevant. Whether it is you or any other punter, if my neutral points are baselessly attacked, I will respond to the attacks. Answer in a reasoned manner, and I may in fact learn something which I would welcome.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #40,588
  • May 11, 2013 3:43pm May 11, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} As I was the only person who had replied to your comments at the time that you made the above post, it must be my reaction to which you are referring. Clearly you are not the kind of person who can have a difference of opinion in an online forum and just let it go. Not only that but by inference you seem to be calling me monumentally stupid, which I obviously find rather offensive. As I said before, it is not for you to decide whether your statements are agnostic or neutral - you don't get to dictate how other people perceive your comments...

Well done and well said! You sir, actually think.
  • #40,589
  • May 11, 2013 3:48pm May 11, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting traider
{quote} The problem is your perception of my meaning, not me. You ought to take some of that "sage" advice of yours and pick your arguments. Every comment of mine bar the one as regards FTI's state of mind, was neutral. However, like lap dogs, you take offence if you perceive any attack upon FTI. FTI is old enough and wise enough to defend himself where he feels he is being unwarrantedly attacked. That was not the case. My points were simple: 1 As deregulation deepens, market high jinks will increase, nostalgia notwithstanding: AND 2 The only...
I am just a dumb cowboy. Although you attempt to keep your comments neutral they may not always be taken as such.

I also detect much ego in some of your posts. Maybe look inside? Just a suggestion.
  • #40,590
  • May 11, 2013 3:50pm May 11, 2013 3:50pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} I am just a dumb cowboy. Although you attempt to keep your comments neutral they may not always be taken as such. I also detect much ego in some of your posts. Maybe look inside? Just a suggestion.
Did you bother to read my posts on the issue of ego? Do you people ever bother to read or are you that sensitive?
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #40,591
  • May 11, 2013 4:07pm May 11, 2013 4:07pm
If anyone feels inclined to take issue with my "egotistical" posts on the state of the market or the alternatives in dealing with it, try taking my argument to pieces, don't attack your perceptions of me. Just get over the fact that someone may have a dfferent opinion to your view of the marjet, even better, put your view beside mine if you think I need educating...but don't give off to me becuase you are offended as to my ego or my perceived attacks on FTI.

This is a place for unblemished knowledge. I don't do technical, but I try and add from a philosophical bent where appropriate.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #40,592
  • May 11, 2013 5:07pm May 11, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting traider
{quote} Did you bother to read my posts on the issue of ego? Do you people ever bother to read or are you that sensitive?
yes I read the thread daily.

Not being sensitive. You are welcome to your opinion. Just an observation. Are you doing the same thing as you perceive others here are doing?
  • #40,593
  • May 11, 2013 5:17pm May 11, 2013 5:17pm
Ok,

I very rarely post on here. But for once I need to.

Firs FTI- Thank you for all the effort and work you put in. I am not going to talk about all that you have done, that is self evident, and from the bottom of my heart THANK YOU.!

As for you Traider - you are an annoying leech. This is why people do not like lawyers - your constant nagging! Like a broken record.... you always have to have the last word. You think that your eloquent writing styles gives you something... You said you are leaving gazillion times and yet you have to have the last word, and you are still here. Geez that is why your PROFESSION is very much disliked, by many. Give it a rest and let these people have their moment. !!!!

Sorry everyone for exploding here - but some people just have to be told when its enough


Esprit
  • #40,594
  • May 11, 2013 6:26pm May 11, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting esprit
Ok, I very rarely post on here. But for once I need to. Firs FTI- Thank you for all the effort and work you put in. I am not going to talk about all that you have done, that is self evident, and from the bottom of my heart THANK YOU.! As for you Traider - you are an annoying leech. This is why people do not like lawyers - your constant nagging! Like a broken record.... you always have to have the last word. You think that your eloquent writing styles gives you something... You said you are leaving gazillion times and yet you have to have the last...
Welcome esprit!
  • #40,595
  • May 11, 2013 6:45pm May 11, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting traider
{quote} . My points were simple: 1 As deregulation deepens, market high jinks will increase, nostalgia notwithstanding: AND 2 The only options are to be a better technician or to follow FTI's advice.
Hope everyone is having a good weekend, while making preparations for the next week of trading. Not sure where the conversation is headed, but saw this post and thought it was not worthy of the material in fti's thread.

Deregulation of the retail forex market not deepening. Instead, regulation is increasing. In addition, I am not sure what market high jinks means. I have been trading for over 9 years now, and my daily/weekly chart work, and my trading charts, work the same today as they did 9 years ago.

Regarding the second point, I assume that everyone still standing in the retail forex market knows that they must constantly work to improve their technical skills, fundamental skills, and strive to follow fti's advice (which is the stuff that can turn a technician into a real "trader"). It is not an either/or decision.

As for retail forex brokers, you must be aware of their business practices when trading. My brokers tend to be pretty good, but occasionally they pull the same kind of BS that fti experienced. In those cases, I appeal to their customer service teams, and about 1/2 the time, they make me whole. That is one of the (few) benefits of more regulations, at least in the US.
  • #40,596
  • Edited 11:01pm May 11, 2013 8:22pm | Edited 11:01pm
Hello my friends.
fti is still alive. Not dead yet, mostly resting trying to figure out, whats the life ahead that i should be striving for.
May be a year in the mosnasteries , may be good for me .
Then i get notice, hey go take a look at the thread.
It Hot!, i was thinking, ok is only been a day i left. Maybe some real sexy hot showed up after i left.
Normally thats my luck , is always like that, I leave and they hot shows. Story of my life.
Now, I and i gets dragged back need make postings.
Something edging me, this gonna be a mistake, once back i going to make my norm, want help peeps, esp many new ones near now, and i gonna need repeat what i had repeated numerous times again.
Is like my rubust mm Mo, unending spirals.

Interesting chap this,traider , brings many issues, not read thread yet, some things does slips him.
Mostly i disinterested at the issues about regulation and deregulation.
Mostly because these political and govennmental issues and agenda.
and is something i not appt at , so I take position , that well if I have no opinions on best practises, then i should just smoke cigar and let them find the solutions.

My only issue with what you saying, not the only issue but the major issue, is that you made generalised statement that old methodology is going out the window.
On that i like highlight to you that spot-interbank Forex have very solid foundation on operations and etiquette and practises protocols for behaviour of dealing to self regulate the business.is very time tested and is cored on honourable behaviour of buying and selling This is the role the forex association international plays in developing the business.
Infact i believe , traider, that you not indept understanding of the core of the forex industry.
Retail broking is a very recent phenomena in that tickets of sizes lesser thaN a couple million usd can be get narrow price spreads to trade.
so for that to happen must come into picture middle men to bridge the need.
But if middle men operate out of norms of forex then is a totally diffent animal. So although is different we must understand it' structure and it protocols.

But to say that old practises are not effective in general is difficult swallow as is the foundation the retail is building from with out the pricipal liquidity retail cannot exist.

The mirror thingy is what i showed on this thread trying explain the priciples suntse bing fa is foundational unpon.
To know self. I not want reexplain as you can search it out in the begining of the thread.

Is ok argue mehtods ans style and MO. but please i urge everyone not get personal.
Listen think then voice your thoughts in nice manner for each try understand another.

i did very well this week, although could be better
i got wipe out my euro shorts make couple pips
then because that switch long cable where i got slaughterd 50% position exposure but mad eback drom fliping short 70+ % exposure. was indeed deth battle. I was luck ride it to ny close and made very good pips double that whichi lost. But this not skillful, mostly lucky. I pray thank God for my escape.
So in reality i not back on saddle
i need think if i want continue trade or i should quit
that is my personal stuff.
But for all who want learn
i already decided leave this thread for you peruse.
But please no argue unless have good understanding of what i tried give.
If no agree, then go skin cat own way.
if nned learn , thread is around.
For me i need solve my own problems first
, ego seems on me, so i also need be very careful.

thanks you all

regards
  • #40,597
  • May 11, 2013 10:32pm May 11, 2013 10:32pm
Quoting fti
Hello my friends. fti is still alive. Not dead yet, mostly resting trying to figure out, whats the life ahead that i should be striving for. May be a year in the mosnasteries , may be good for me . Then i get notice, hey go take a look at the thread. It Hot!, i was thinking, ok is only been a day i left. Maybe some real sexy hot showed up after i left. Normally thats my luck , is always like that, I leave and they hot shows. Story of my life. Now, I and i gets dragged back need make postings. Something edging me, this gonna be a mistake, once back...

Just hang in there my friend and do what you love. everything else means nothing. I tell my dad that all the time. he is 74. I get to be 43 on monday. The elders know. the rest is subjective.
  • #40,598
  • May 11, 2013 11:07pm May 11, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Just hang in there my friend and do what you love. everything else means nothing. I tell my dad that all the time. he is 74. I get to be 43 on monday. The elders know. the rest is subjective.

tub, bottomline P&L tells everything.
if is not good its say that, if is good one knows.

No need argue can only explain to those who cannot understand
but if get personal, the pesonality clash happens try avoid.

also if arfue please not be impolite to ine another , here is place for friends learn form one another, open mind and a little restrain and empathy please.

some ings can agree dis agree, gentlemen way.
Bottom line of book will show, correct or not.over time.

my friends to all, i shall not return until i find way solve my own pridicament. So sorry.

regards
  • #40,599
  • May 11, 2013 11:17pm May 11, 2013 11:17pm
You people talk absolute and unmitigated drivel. I am not the one complaining about unethical behaviour. However, as I have said, if there is this behaviour that FTI is complaining of (the chart of which I have yet to see), there are steps we can take. End of story! All I hear is whinging nyerping for god only knows what reason.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #40,600
  • May 11, 2013 11:20pm May 11, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting traider
You people talk absolute and unmitigated drivel. I am not the one complaining about unethical behaviour. However, as I have said, if there is this behaviour that FTI is complaining of (the chart of which I have yet to see), there are steps we can take. End of story! All I hear is whinging nyerping for god only knows what reason.
isee.
thats fine.
you go skin cat your way.
is ok
the peeps here carry different mindset .
And if that not pallatable to you then you have choice to no visit.

yes , if end of story is end. no need discuss.
You want understand , then read thread before argue.if valid peeps may listen , otherwise to each his own.
Please not be rude.

regards.
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