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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #5,601
  • May 4, 2013 9:26pm May 4, 2013 9:26pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello TraderinSD: Congrats on this excellent trade. And thanks for doing a number of charts showing the preceding analysis, trade progression and termination. It helps a lot. For your entry was that just a limit order waiting at that level. Thanks Borg
I use Market Order 90% of the time..My entries do not have to be perfect ( it's nice if it turns out that way ). I'm far more concern with direction and risk. I believe many place to much concern on getting that exact entry. If you will notice, many of my trades, I tend to be away from the desired / text book entry.

TSD
  • #5,602
  • May 6, 2013 9:54am May 6, 2013 9:54am
This is the Eur/Jpy hourly chart
Which level do you think is more accurate A or B??
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  • #5,603
  • May 6, 2013 9:59am May 6, 2013 9:59am
Quoting kmouneer
This is the Eur/Jpy hourly chart Which level do you think is more accurate A or B?? {image}
For me personally none of the 2 levels. Level A is not covering the swing low that created that H1 imbalance. At Level B, the lower one, price has spent too much time at that area so that's not good, it's better to have price spend not too much time at the level and depart rapidly.

This is what I have on EJ H1. In fact I have a limit buy order very similar to your Level A, but covering the whole area and painted the level covering the initial base.
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,604
  • May 7, 2013 6:29am May 7, 2013 6:29am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} For me personally none of the 2 levels. Level A is not covering the swing low that created that H1 imbalance. At Level B, the lower one, price has spent too much time at that area so that's not good, it's better to have price spend not too much time at the level and depart rapidly. This is what I have on EJ H1. In fact I have a limit buy order very similar to your Level A, but covering the whole area and painted the level covering the initial base. {image}
Ok, I was thinking its a fresh level so I can place a PO.

The level you marked to too big for PO so I'll have to wait and how it reacts and then enter a market order.
  • #5,605
  • May 7, 2013 6:31am May 7, 2013 6:31am
Quoting kmouneer
{quote} Ok, I was thinking its a fresh level so I can place a PO. The level you marked to too big for PO so I'll have to wait and how it reacts and then enter a market order.
Yes, it's wide because Yen pairs normally produce wider levels because of higher volatility. But if I have 3:1 profit margin then it's a level for me. I don't care if level is 40 pips, I will adjust my lot size risk to 1% which is my risk per trade. I don't trade confirmation type of trades, just set & forget, that's why!

Have a day full of pips!
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,606
  • May 7, 2013 10:45pm May 7, 2013 10:45pm
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Here the overview of the 2 longs I took last night. #1 down candle w/ corresponding volume as marked.. SM's buying. As this candle touched the top of our level "1st entry on 1st touch" SM's still continuing to buy into the level. We got long out first 2 lot.. The spread was really ugly.!! Price made a second move into the level but this time price closed high with a solid PIN on high volume. We took our second position long with a 2 lot. Each position has a 6 pip SL. TP's were 18 and 12 pips.

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View of the higher 4HR TF showing trend inside the larger TF .. next chart

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Here is the Daily.. See the pattern. D-B-?...We are trading out of the base looking for price to trade back up into Supply overhead. We have HL's. We have spent a good amount of time AWAY from the level ( Odds Enhancer).. As I have mentioned multiple times before, my view of this type of PA is that price tends to act like a MAGNET for price to return to the level overhead. IMHO pressure is to the upside. Longs are the higher probability trade.

TSD
  • #5,607
  • May 7, 2013 10:59pm May 7, 2013 10:59pm
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Price move up into a "small supply level" and retreated back down to retest our Demand Level.

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Move down to the 1M to take a look inside my trade..This sometime helps me get a better feel for what may be happening. Anticipated ?? a Swap Level as indicated.

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Price broke back through my anticipated Swap Level.. Price never got back down to our original Demand Level but did touch our 1st entry. Price eventually turned and powered up to take out both our TP's.

Total pipage for both 2 lot positions = 63.

TSD
  • #5,608
  • May 8, 2013 12:59pm May 8, 2013 12:59pm
Hi Kenneth , thank you for a great thread. I love the simplicity of your trading ideas. Thank you for all the effort and time you take to educate us. You are a remarkable man.

TraderinSd your multiple charts with different time frames are a real eye opener. You also have put me on the volume learning curve and it I love it. Sorry if it's been asked before, but how do you put a MA on your volumes?

Thanks guys for your contributions to this thread.
  • #5,609
  • May 8, 2013 1:21pm May 8, 2013 1:21pm
These are the trades I got triggered today. Left the computer alone and went to the beach the whole afternoon to disconnect. I got triggered on 4 limit orders (I only do set & forget on H1 and H4 timeframes). 3 of them are already at BE. AUDCHF is still holding at the entry level.

GBPJPY: short on H1 supply
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EURCAD: short on H4 supply, drilled down to a H1 supply level for smaller risk
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EURGBP: short on H1 supply, drilled down to a H1 supply level for smaller risk
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AUDCHF: long at a H1 demand level within a D1 non-fresh demand level. There is a better level right underneath this H1 deman level which could also work if this one fails
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,610
  • May 8, 2013 9:52pm May 8, 2013 9:52pm
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I thought I would walk through a thought process for potential opportunities.

Here is a the Daily showing the up trend with price basing to a possible return to Demand Area. So what we see, is that the pressure for price to move... is back short. LH's.

Again this is based on the idea that PA contained within the pattern acts like a magnet for price to return..( not absolute but high probability ). This is not a traditional retrace. Why ?? Price is moving more sideways vs. the diagonal movement downward in a traditional retrace. See how obvious the pattern appears. You will see this in all TF's..Because we are in an uptrend this Demand Area, if reached, presents high potential. We are trading with the trend.. (more on this later)
  • #5,611
  • May 8, 2013 10:22pm May 8, 2013 10:22pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here is a 4Hr of the previous JPY..So what I have done here is to incorporate trade Trend Lines/S/R's into what is happening with PA. Note: See how S/R levels are very different that S/D levels.. and yes, they can be in the same.. Just something to be ware of.

So notice we have drawn a Triangle. We have drawn a potential Demand Level. Now notice were we may see price bounce and go long.. Blue arrow..Interesting that our Demand level may?? be the same as the possible ( traditional ) bounce at the support line of the Triangle.

Also look at were price is trading now. We have confluence of a bounce short from the top of the Triangle..PA is Basing so we should see price a move back down to our Demand Level..plus.. We have LH's contained in both the larger Base pattern and the smaller Base pattern..We are now what I call the Pattern w/in the Pattern.

Where's the pressure?

Where's the opportunity?

Are we trading Trend or Counter Trend relative to the bigger picture?

All questions that can help you determine risk of trade, position size, and targets.

More to follow

TSD
  • #5,612
  • May 8, 2013 10:55pm May 8, 2013 10:55pm
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Here is a 30M view of the JPY. Again we see were price has ( potential ) confluence at the top arrow.. BUT ... I have added a new lower levels ( second arrow )
Why ?? 1) This is the start of the obvious Rise-Base-Rise that create the 2 Demand Levels. 2) Draw a horizontal line along the 97.20 level..see how price traded around this number ( think in terms of areas and not exact price along this line )

So if price does break through our upper Demand level we may see price move to the next lower Demand level. We could also see a spike down through he first Demand level only to see price rally back up.. Triangles will often have this type of PA..additionally price may still have additional consolidating to complete as is normal in triangles patterns. Will see?? as this too may work in our favor as the beginning of the additional consolidation would be our Demand Level.

Sometimes you will see a solid PIN in the PA at the lower trend line. If that does happen this ( IMHO ) are the SM's taking out the shorts ( those looking to go short on the break of the triangle ) only to turn price around and head long..Essentially the SM's are sucking more inventory to take it long.

So what we may see is a hard push short into the Demand level.. ( once price breaks below 98.57 there is really nothing in its way to slow the move into Demand except 98.38 (look left) .. Now look farther left and you will see PA had dropped aggressively.. so... the 98.38 will most likely "stall point" and then price should move into our first Demand Level.

Ideally we want to see:
1) An aggressive move into our Demand Level ( Odds Enhancer )
2) Price has stayed away from our level for a good amount of time.. relative to TF ( Odds Enhancer )
3) We would be trading with the larger trend up ( Odds Enhancer )
4) Opportunity to have a 3:1 R/R trade ( Odds Enhancer )


More to follow

TSD
  • #5,613
  • May 8, 2013 11:08pm May 8, 2013 11:08pm
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See how price acted at the TOP of the triangle.. Go back to the 4HR..See the 4 point that created this Triangle..Now back the 30M.. Price aggressively move away after Basing.. lots of power in this down move.. Higher Volume over last 2 days. they only group that can create this type of move and volume are the SM's. Price then created a smaller Base then a a Rise on good volume back into Supply @ 99.34. Price then touched our supply with a high of 99.35.. Price now appears to be heading to the other side of the Triangle???

More to follow

TSD
  • #5,614
  • May 8, 2013 11:46pm May 8, 2013 11:46pm
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So let look at some trading opportunities using the 15M inside the BASE of the Rise-Base-Drop pattern...Again think in terms of the Pattern w/in the Pattern.

We know the that price has just bounce short from the Triangle formation. We know that the Demand below from the Rise-Base-Drop pattern acts like a price magnet drawing price back to it.. ( Higher percentage )

Price now creating LH's inside the Base

#1..Why not this level? Price did spend a short amount of time there right?? Yes but look a the volume as it left this are.. Weak..

#2 .. Why this level? Price did spend a short amount of time there right?? Yes, and look at the volume..much higher then the preceding 4 periods that included #1.. This is were the SM made their move from and create a Supply level. This is one of the ways in which I use volume to help me locate the correct level.

#3.. After price just touched Supply Level #2 PA made another very aggressive move short. Price spent a short amount of time at this level ( notice price bounce of the #2 supply.. PA then went sideways for 2 candles.. then fell through the floor. ) This is screaming !!! SUPPLY.. Look at the the #3 Volume. very HIGH ..

Blue arrows .. Price created the Drop-Base-Rise pattern and returned to Supply Level #3.. See how the volume coming into #3 Supply was good with wide spreads on the candles..Once price made it inside our level Volume dried up ( all the UP candles had no volume and the spreads were small) Obviously no desire to take it long.. Demand drying up.. Only direction left is to go is short. Looking at how price originally moved away, creating this level, we should see the same thing again.. Several Odds Enhancers are in place.

Now there is still one question left.. Level 2 vs. Level 3.. why would we not wait for price to move into level#2 as this appears to be levels on levels??

Answer: Look how price moved away from Level #3 compared to Level #2.. Significantly STRONGER..This strength tells us that this level has high potentail for a short and it is FRESH !!!!! ( ODDS ENHANCER )

TSD
  • #5,615
  • May 9, 2013 12:08am May 9, 2013 12:08am
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Swap Level...ala KL....Price has create a Swap Level.. See how price has respected the lower level. Drawn from the Supply Level created on the 60M chart on 4/26/2016..Odds Enhancers are in play here..See were price bounce from prior to creating #1 and Supply #2.. PA then return to the Swap Level bouncing and creating #3.. Then bouncing again with a really nice PIN on the 60M to move back up into #3 Supply.. Now look at the price Highs preceding our entry into #3..All LH's contained in the base.

This may give us another reason to see a good move short into our Demand Level.. We may even see a retest of this level if price breaks through.

We may also see this level hold, forming part of a base, and PA moving back up to looking for a Fresh Supply level. This may present an opportunity to get short on what I call a Magnet Trade.. Trading from a level inside a Base to either a Supply or Demand level..

Lets take a look?

TSD
  • #5,616
  • May 9, 2013 12:25am May 9, 2013 12:25am
Awesome charts and info, thanks TSD
  • #5,617
  • May 9, 2013 12:44am May 9, 2013 12:44am
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Area #1, #2 and #3.. First all three had pretty good volume..Lets look a little closer.. #1= Really to much time at the level compared to the others. #2 = More of a pull back and but with less time at the level than #1.... #3..very little time at the level ( Odds Enhancer ) Volume is good but not the best of the three. What else can we find that might help us. we have a support line at 98.78 prior to #2 that is inside our #3 supply level..Yes #2 has the same at 98.83 but remember price spent to much time at this level.


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What is also interesting is our #3 level is right on the top of our Swap Level Range..

Will just have to wait and see what price does at these levels..A bit challenging for sure

Then again it may just go south on its own??

TSD
  • #5,618
  • May 9, 2013 6:21am May 9, 2013 6:21am
Quoting panoramia
These are the trades I got triggered today. Left the computer alone and went to the beach the whole afternoon to disconnect. I got triggered on 4 limit orders (I only do set & forget on H1 and H4 timeframes). 3 of them are already at BE. AUDCHF is still holding at the entry level. GBPJPY: short on H1 supply {image} EURCAD: short on H4 supply, drilled down to a H1 supply level for smaller risk {image} EURGBP: short on H1 supply, drilled down to a H1 supply level for smaller risk {image} AUDCHF: long at a H1 demand level within a D1 non-fresh demand...
Awesome trades man!! The 4hr levels are where its at
  • #5,619
  • May 9, 2013 7:33am May 9, 2013 7:33am
Quoting TraderinSD
{image} #1..Why not this level? Price did spend a short amount of time there right?? Yes but look a the volume as it left this are.. Weak.. #2 .. Why this level? Price did spend a short amount of time there right?? Yes, and look at the volume..much higher then the preceding 4 periods that included #1.. This is were the SM made their move from and create a Supply level. This is one of the ways in which I use volume to help me locate the correct level. #3..( ODDS ENHANCER ) TSD
Hi TraderinSD thank you very much for your detail explanation. I am following your Volume explanations for some time and like it very much. It happens to me quite often to pick not the right SD zone so I trust it will help me to improve a lot. However I have a problem with indic. See screen, hows different picture I got it with standard settings than yours. Could you instruct me how I could fix it to get similar look to yours? maybe you could share tpl.? I tried to put MA in to this indic window however every time i try it appears at the main data window. With my Volume I can see almost nothing .. Thanks a lot in advance for your help.
PS.I tried to find answer here already but can't so sorry if I overseen this somewhere..
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  • #5,620
  • May 9, 2013 8:14am May 9, 2013 8:14am
Hi Amcee, for attaching a MA to your volume indi : Click on Navigator, click on indicator (not custom indicators). Drag Moving Average into your volume box. Under parameters select "Apply to:" First Indicators data.

It should work
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